Caledonia Strategic Dilemma (no B. Fagan please)

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

September 20, 1942

My opponent has FIVE, five infantry divisions at La Foa on New Caledonia now, facing my 2 divisions and SNLF's. I'm dug in at fort level 3 now, its 2100 Allied AV vs 1400 Japanese AV. I think even with 5 divisions he cannot break through. But its gonna be like the last plane out of Stalingrad for my rearguard soldiers eventually!

The question is: with 5 divisions at Noumea, clearly New Caledonia is my opponent's focal point. Though I can't quite evacuate my troops yet, i'm wondering-- does it make sense to stay as long as possible now? To keep punching back, to see if I can delay him so far in the south Pacific that his offensives are too late?

[Chickenboy]

Lee,

In some ways, your opponent has played into your hands around New Caledonia. He's feeding increasingly desperate surface and naval air missions into the fray and having them butchered. If you can continue to do this at minimal loss to yourself, it may be worth having those two divisions chewed up.

I think the likelihood of you expelling the Allies from New Caledonia is nil at this stage. If this attritional warfare is to your advantage, by all means stay. Otherwise, you should start the difficult planning for extricating your forces intact. May I suggest the following considerations at a minimum:

1. What will your next MLR be? You may not want to keep the bulge that are the Santa Cruz islands-that makes an obvious bombing target for Allied LBA from New Caledonia. If you pull back, where to? Where is your next bullwark?

2. How will you get your troops out? An amphibious TF would surely be the fastest method of getting out large troop numbers, but it is quite vulnerable to surface and air interdiction. IJNAF air transports are more difficult for him to interdict, but are slow to do their work.

3. What're those two divisions "worth" to you? What does success look like for their loss? Is keeping the Allies in a position to lose 2 more CVEs worth it? A handful of BBs? More Allied aircraft? If you are planning on selling yourself dearly, what's your price?

[btbw]

Bring here China divisions with high exp lvl and crush enemy after devastating bombardings.

[Q-Ball]

I'm with Chickenboy: 5 Divisions at this stage, it's too late to think about kicking him off Caledonia.

However, that doesnt' mean you should leave. Quite the contrary, that convoy escorted by CVEs was a real mistake. You never mix CVEs and transports, that's a real bad idea in itself, but clearly he is desparate to close it out. You wiped out alot of troops.

Just keep attriting his ships and planes. Don't worry about your troops; get them out eventually if you can, but I think you are better off holding for now, and forcing him to send more ships through your KB, than you are withdrawing. Losing 2 divisions isn't that big a deal; I would trade that for the hit you put on that convoy any day.

As long as you control the air over Noumea, and sea around it, you should stay. Once you start to lose that control, it's time to leave. I would say at this point, you definitely control the sea, and pretty much control the air. (Well, you should be Tojo sweeping if you are not already)

[btbw]

Sent in PM

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

thank you for these comments. Btbw your PM was very helpful thank you, I will respond more in depth privately.

To discuss Chickenboy and Q-Ball's points:

1. Next Main Line of Resistance-- After Luganville falls, probably Tulagi-Rabaul-Hollandia. Tarawa is built up, but the islands to the north (mostly 6,000 max troop atolls) are lightly defended. The Marianas will be a nightmare for the Allies at the rate I'm digging fortifications. I'm actually kind of excited about later in the game to see where my opponent chooses to direct his amphibious drive, because its gonna be hell to take the high victory point locations. Bataan, Clark Airfield and Manila are Fort levels 5 to 8 as of September 1942 and still digging, for example...

2. I'll probably keep using an airlift to remove troops from New Caledonia, though I've put that on hold since its a reasonable strategic debate how fast one should evacuate this situation- now that the entire American war effort appears centered so far south. Eventually I may risk transports with LR CAP coverage.

3. Good question Chickenboy, how much is "selling" the two Japanese divisions and other troops on New Caledonia worth? I think if I can delay him there 6-12 months, and continue killing ships and convoys opportunistically, that could be worth the sacrifice. My opponent has lost 6 Battleships, 20 cruisers, 2 CVE's, many destroyers, a troop convoy and possibly a division on board. None of these losses would have happened unless I stayed on New Caledonia. Otherwise he'd be opportunistically snatching one island after the other as the Americans did historically. My opponent would be have the initiative. I know he will start catching up soon, but those 5 divisions at La Foa are busy not taking Tarawa, not taking Kwajalein, not taking Wake, etc etc. That seems to be worth a lot, at least to me. Of course this campaign has turned up quite a few surprises for me, and I'm sure there more to come. Without the advice on these forums from everyone though, it would have been a lot tougher!


One point several people brought up is that I should be winning the air war over New Caledonia. I have 200 fighters in the area, and I could maybe get that up 300. The allies have close to 200 at Noumea, and new P-38 Lightnings are escorting bombers as far as Luganville. When I first landed at Koumac, the KB tried to sweep the skies over Noumea and failed. Fortunately I still have plenty of good pilots for the carriers, but the losses were painful and I don't want to get into an air war of attrition. Blasting the airfields with my battleships seems like a more viable option, at least for me. Even if I did gain air superiority, i'm not sure I could ever defeat his land forces on New Caledonia, which were never less than 1200 AV. Maybe i'm wrong, and someday my opponent will read this mini AAR and comment about what he was thinking and where his forces were at the time. He did say that after I landed he snuck a full division in from PH. But KB was too bruised to stand in the way at the time.

Last point, IJ subs are taking a ghastly toll on Allied shipping between San Francisco and PH. 85% of my subs are in that area now. Every convoy coming through loses 2-3 AK's lately. Those five divisions at La Foa may smash through eventually, but he's hopefully gonna have a lot less ships to move them forward en masse.

[inqistor]

WOW! 5 Divisions? So where from he got them?
Or more importantly, where they are NOT currently? What he have at...like... Fiji for example? AND... what he left at Noumea? You know... Inchon can be executed by both sides...

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

2. I'll probably keep using an airlift to remove troops from New Caledonia, though I've put that on hold since its a reasonable strategic debate how fast one should evacuate this situation- now that the entire American war effort appears centered so far south. Eventually I may risk transports with LR CAP coverage.

How many transport units are you using? Japan have lots of them, and not much use, except training most of the time.

One point several people brought up is that I should be winning the air war over New Caledonia. I have 200 fighters in the area, and I could maybe get that up 300. The allies have close to 200 at Noumea, and new P-38 Lightnings are escorting bombers as far as Luganville.

P-38 at escort are really bad choice. They are generally better than your all early fighters, so he actually gives you good chance to destroy them.

Last point, IJ subs are taking a ghastly toll on Allied shipping between San Francisco and PH. 85% of my subs are in that area now. Every convoy coming through loses 2-3 AK's lately. Those five divisions at La Foa may smash through eventually, but he's hopefully gonna have a lot less ships to move them forward en masse.

Are those transports loaded with troops? Because Allies could not care less about sunk transport ships, even loaded with supplies, and fuel.
You will NOT sunk enough transports to cause him troubles (unless those are assault ships), so you are just wasting your submarines. Get them aroung New Caledonia, and try to sunk his Warships, before they upgrade their ASW weapons, and you will not be able to survive any detection.

[btbw]

Get them aroung New Caledonia, and try to sunk his Warships, before they upgrade their ASW weapons, and you will not be able to survive any detection.

Im agree - subs between Aus, Noumea, Suva, Pago and below can give you vital information about incoming convoy or TF.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

...and the Americans strike back, painfully. The enemy always gets a vote

Allied P-38's sweep the skies over Luganville repeatedly, reducing the CAP effectiveness before the American 4E bomber onslaught. Fortunately damaging some planes and forcing me to rotate new fighters squadrons in won't wreck my situation at New Caledonia. But regardless, it was a painful attack (the ships sunk were damaged and in repair in harbor, the rest of my fleet has wisely stayed away from Port Attack vulnerability):

Morning Air attack on Luganville , at 120,150

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 34
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 8



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 49
B-17F Fortress x 10
B-24D Liberator x 39


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 1 damaged
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 8 damaged
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed on ground
G4M1 Betty: 9 destroyed on ground
L3Y2 Tina: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-57-I Topsy: 1 destroyed on ground
Ki-57-II Topsy: 5 destroyed on ground
H6K2-L Mavis: 1 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 2 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 5 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 6 damaged

Japanese Ships
SS RO-67, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DD Akatsuki, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Tone, Bomb hits 27, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Yugumo, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
LB-157, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1020, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AKE Denmark Maru, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
AS Yasukuni Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Kazegumo, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
ACM Bisan Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1012, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-5001, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1021, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-517, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1007, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1010, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-151, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1019, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-516, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-153, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
ACM Asahi Maru #2, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-144, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LB-1008, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Japanese ground losses:
8 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled



Airbase hits 25
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 70
Port hits 9
Port supply hits 2

In answer to questions posted:

I have about 50 air transports at Luganville, enough to make a difference but not proceed with a lightning fast evacuation.

As for the sub wars, I've found that my subs end up chasing warships but rarely getting any contact/hits, while putting themselves at risk from all the DD escorts. Sinking over 20 transports off the coast of California with barely any loss still seems like a decent trade. The Bettys on Naval Search can hopefully make up for the lost sub recon.

[btbw]

Not enough fighters.

[Lokasenna]

You need to get some Tojos in there.

Oscars have extremely light guns. They are barely acceptable when they have good pilots and are against lightly armored or lower durability planes. Without good pilots or against even 2E bombers, they're only useful for strike disruption. Honestly, I hate this airframe. I find it basically worthless and as soon as the Tojo is online in enough numbers to sustain operations and upgrade Oscar units, I stop the Ki-43 production.


Zeroes do passably well against 4Es since they have a 20mm cannon - for a Japanese plane, anyway. They won't shoot a lot down, but they'll get some and damage others, which can lead to ops losses.

You need more Nicks there, also. What size is the airfield at Koumac and how much Av Supp do you have there?

[Q-Ball]

I agree with Lokasenna and others: Get some Tojos

You should be able to defend Luganville; you need to get more fighters, Nicks and Zeros

As far as sweeping Noumea, don't use KB for sweeps. The Zero is a terrible sweeper. Use Tojos; they will punish P-40s. You will suffer losses, but you can outproduce him there. What is your Tojo production like? I bet it's not enough. You need to have it well over 100 at least.

But you need alot more fighters, specifically Tojos down there.

PS: inquisitor is also right about sub usage; you cannot sink enough xAKs to cause any problems for the Allies whatsoever. Or xAPs for that matter, really. APA/AP/AKA are the only transport ships that matter, as these are valuable for landings and in short supply. And supplies/fuel? Allies have unlimited quantities of both. Even sinking ground troops on transports is just inconvenient; if it's a combat unit, that's a pain, but if it's an engineering unit, it doesn't matter at all, strategically; the Allies have excess there too.

I can tell you as Allies I have xAKs and engineers sitting around waiting for assignments all the time; as Japan, engineers NEVER sit with nothing to build

[Chickenboy]

Tojos *would* do better versus B-17s than your Oscar-Ic's, that much is certain. However, they're still insufficient to swat down a large 4EB raid like you just experienced. Until you get Jacks, Georges or N1K1/2's in quantity, you will be in a poor position to interdict 4EB raids.

However, you have been put on notice (if you hadn't already) about the risks of having ships disbanded in port within 4EB range of the Allies. It's not safe and you should dee-dee any surviving ships from Luganville or New Caledonia or expect to see them sunk at their moorings.

[Cap Mandrake]

Kill his B-24's and B-17's will they are sitting in their reventments at night. You do this with the stuff you bought from the Brits in the 1920's. Get the recon level at Noumea up to 9 and send in the BB's, one BB per taffy with escorts, night after night. With 3 of them you could keep up an almost uniterrupted shuttle of destruction for a week or so and just break everything he has there. You will need ASW groups and smaller surface groups to precede the BB's every night to deal with subs and PT boats and samll SCTF's.


As mentioned, bad idea to leave valuable surface assets disbanded in port within range of his heavies.

[Cap Mandrake]

Also this Inchon idea (landing behind them at Noumea) is not so crazy. That is exactly what happened to us in our defense of New and Improved Caledonia. We had achieved a stalemate at La Foa and crever baahstards landed at Noumea.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

Though I have learned this lesson the hard way before, the ships disbanded in port were all heavily damaged and under repairs-- the AKE, AS and AV however were disbanded to provide support for the bombardment TF's and few local subs. So those ships might have sunk on the way home for repairs or under enemy bombing.

--Tojo production target is 150/month but currently only 22/month, as factories switch from Oscars to Tojos.

--I am eager to bombard Noumea's airfields as well-- I've been using bad weather and LR CAP to get ships into position. There's a bit of a chicken and egg problem-- I need fighters to protect my bombardment TF's to shut down Noumea, but the fighters are getting chewed up defending Luganville from Noumea's airfield. Fortunately winning the surface combats again and again has given me a chance at the upper hand. Also getting fuel to Luganville is a chore-- there's a large TK convoy on the way. Its amazing how much of an Imperial effort it is to feed, fuel and reinforce an outpost on the far side of the planet. But the longer I keep the Allies occupied there, the better....

The good news is, my opponent, though very aggressive and smart, usually does not follow through on his attacks. Maybe his P-38's and B-17's were demoralized and shot up too, but this turn he did not bomb Luganville, or anything else around New Caledonia. Another round would have hurt-- instead I rotated in some more Zeroes & Oscars (Nick's are recuperating and Tojos still building). I should be able to start another bombardment TF to blast Noumea...

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

Speaking of taking risks...

I think this last round demonstrates the difficulty in implementing a lot of the strategy and tactics we've discussed: The IJ bombardment TF, 2 BB's, some CA's & DD's, sailed towards Noumea with Zero & Oscar LR CAP protection. A US carrier fleet of some kind (i'm not sure if CVE, CV or what) sailed NW on the far side of New Caledonia launched an air assault of 50 SB Dauntlesses, 15 Avengers and 45 Wildcats. Miraculously, my CAP fended most of them off and my BB's received only minor damage. The Japanese bombardment TF is currently retreating back to Luganville.

My opponent might have seen KB back in Truk for resupply and taken the risk of moving his carriers into a better blocking position. From the far side of New Caledonia, this American CV/CVE TF can threaten bombardment TF's as well as resupply TF's into Koumac and La Foa. Though KB could probably help restore the situation, all my CV's are due the new upgrade that gives them Air Radar. That could make a difference in keeping them alive, especially if we have another carrier duel coming up...

Of course, what to do next to destroy the US fleet there?

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

The USA strikes back, and I need help!...(No Brian Fagan reading this please) October 5th, 1942

The American 4E level bombers, as discussed before, are a powerful force. Even a CAP of 180 Nick's, Oscars & Zeroes over my large base of Luganville can't stop an assault from 50 B-17's & 50 B-26's somehow. My opponent whittled down this Japanese CAP some with 3 sweeps of 15 P-38's, then his bombers came in 3 days in a row. While I still have 120 demoralized fighters left on Luganville, the airfield is in shambles and I have temporarily lost air superiority to defend my nearby TF's. My fighters do not seem able to shoot down more than a handful of level bombers, and the majority pass through the CAP unscathed to obliterate Luganville. Nothing seems to work-- Tojos production is increasing but I don't see any effective Japanese defense against these bombers as of now. Its pretty demoralizing to throw up a CAP of 180 fighters at 11k altitude (vs bombers at 9k) and barely put a dent in the enemy 4E's.

With Luganville's CAP rendered effectively useless, the US CV's Wasp & Lexington bravely attacked my resupply and tanker fleets nearby. And losing 4 Japanese tankers is bad, very bad. I have lost too many so far . The KB is rushing back from resupply at Truk, but with only 4 CV's, as i'd sent 2 back to Tokyo for upgrades (gotta do it sometime). Hopefully I can catch some his carriers off guard, since he may be able to see the 2 CV's near Japan mainland and think all of KB is back there.

And now just as supplies are running low on New Caledonia for my 2 divisions and many SNLF's, a sixth, yes sixth, US division has been detected on the ground at La Foa. Six!

The tides of war swing wildly from one side to another, and the Alllies are on the current upswing. I'm hoping the return of the KB can stave off disaster and sink some more ships. Of course, to stop the 4E bombers, I need to bombard his airfields, but I can't do that without any LR CAP protection. Its a vicious circle and I am going to put all options on the table to keep the Japanese effort alive in this region....

[Chickenboy]

Your time in this theatre is running out, Lee. You're going to swing from using New Caledonia and its surrounds to thwart your opponent to letting him butcher your stranded troops. It'll happen. Get 'em out, like you should have started doing months ago when you had unfettered naval access. Sorry to be blunt, but you've overplayed your hand and overextended your time here. Fall back (mostly) intact now or be cut off and destroyed in detail. The choice is yours.

As for the bashing of Luganville-yup. It's going to happen in any other airbase within B17, B24 and P-38 range too. Those 'demoralized' fighters on Luganville? If he's smart he'll hit this airfield day after day after day after day until those fighters are destroyed on the ground. You've not see bad morale until you've had your air units effectively ground to hamburger in this manner.

Then he'll do the same for your air bases and ports on New Caledonia proper. Your supply will plummet, your fighters will be powerless to suppress and your units will be crushed akin to Luganville.

It's not a winning proposition for you. Don't let your victory (victories!) here be unwound by losing your large forces here. Don't compound it by losing KB against LBA either.

[inqistor]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

The American 4E level bombers, as discussed before, are a powerful force. Even a CAP of 180 Nick's, Oscars & Zeroes over my large base of Luganville can't stop an assault from 50 B-17's & 50 B-26's somehow.

B-17 are almost invulnerable, but he no longer gets replacements for them. Really, all went to Europe, and next unit will arrive in 1945, so every B-17 destroyed now, is B-17 destroyed for next 3 years. B-26 are tough, but not that tough. What you need is big guns, so in current state only ZEROs, or NICKs. TOJOs are your main fighters to get air control.
What you need, is unloading some Engineers, and supply on nearby dot-bases, and build airfields there. They are shitty, because they have 0 for port, but airfield size 1 is enough to put there CAP.

There will be time, when you would have to think about evacuation, but currently Allies can not sustain air loses. Next month, their Fighters replacements will reach lowest point, since March. The point, when things will begin to heat is time, when HELLCATs would show up, at 130 planes per month, but this will be in APRIL 1943. To be safe, you would have to evacuate everything until first week of that month, but I think he will need at least two full months of such production to begin serious offensive.

Your main goal now is to secure air space by land based units, so you will not be dependent of KB presence. Lots of level 1 airfields should be enough.