Caledonia Strategic Dilemma (no B. Fagan please)

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

[PLEASE DO NOT READ B. FAGAN, FOR OBVIOUS REASONS ]

Hi, this AAR originated from a question i had about a strategic dilemma in New Caledonia as the japanese player in July 1942. The "Should I stay or should i go?" dilemma brought out a lot of responses on the right strategy and tactics, with differing opinions. Here is the background link with 3 pages of posts:

Caledonia situation: page 1: tm.asp?m=3269014&mpage=1&key=

page 2: tm.asp?m=3269014&mpage=2&key=

Summary of whole Pacific: page 3: tm.asp?m=3269014&mpage=3&key=


Last post from Chickenboy on the update (and my response below):

Hi Lee,


With no HRs concerning movement of your units outside of the Kwangtung territory, why on Earth does your opponent have any open terrain cities still in China? Why have you not mopped the floor with him there with your superfluous AV in China? I'd immediately dump out all of the artillery, infantry and unnecessary base / support forces that you can and take these sites. Places to start: 1. Ichang; 2. Pakhoi-Nanning-(other city on rail W of Kweilin). 3. Is Nanyang (extreme upper image) still in Allied hands? Intolerable. Kill them. 4. Loyang and Changchow? They're not in the image either. If they're not yours, they should have been 6 months ago. 5. Sian? Add that to the short list of cities that shoulda been yours by now. You've some work to do in China.

2. You've some unfinished business in the Southern DEI. Taberfane, Dobo, Saumlaki, Bobo and other dot hexes should have been captured. Koepang needs to be neutralized-it's a priority.

3. Your Burmese defense is likely insufficient. Recommend buttressing with Manchuko troops, as previously indicated.

Good luck and keep us posted! Looking forward to your AAR.

Chickenboy.


Hi Chickenboy,

As for China, yes you right I have unfinished business there (as well as in the DEI). My opponent moved a large force of Chinese troops towards Foochow on the coast early in the game. I don't quite know why. It was a long campaign to surround and finish off the incursion--- I can't remember exactly, but I think i destroyed about 1,000 AV worth of Chinese troops. I would argue that was a mistake by my opponent. The failed offensive left him quite weak in the center. Once Changsha is finished there is not much to stop me moving on Chungking until I reach Chungking itself. So i have not taken all those cities you mentioned above, but I did spend the time destroying a lot of his combat power. And lastly regarding China, i am a bit of a rookie here. None of my AE games went this long, so I can't tell exactly if i did the right thing surrounding and destroying the invasion, or i should have left it alone and gone after those cities. Maybe i'll ignore Chungking after Changsha and go mop everything up.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Maybe i'll ignore Chungking after Changsha and go mop everything up.

I would consider bombing the airfield at Chungking (and perhaps other bases where you know engineers are present) at the least in order to keep his supply situation dire. Or simply any bombing campaign. All those Infantry units you've destroyed/will destroy will respawn there, if he doesn't have enough supply then they won't rebuild.

[inqistor]

You don't know the power of... this fully operational Battle Station. How are your Yamatos?


Trust me, if you will be able to naval bombard Noumea every day, by at least one BB, after around two weeks, he will be lucky, if he will be able to muster 100 AV. Coastal battles are very different, than in-land battles, because of fleets. Try adding some DMS into bombardment TF (I am not sure Japan have them, but you can use something similar), to clear mines.

Also, take those bases on east (New Hebrides). You will be able to LRCAP New Caledonia from there, and there are few spots, which can be build quickly to large airbase.

[SBD]

You really need to capture Koepang & lock down the DEIs to secure your source of fuel. Much more important than Noumea.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

July 14th, 1942 UPDATE:

After heeding all of the advice and instruction from various posts & PM's, I'm in "Send guns, lawyers, money, the s%*% has hit the fan!" mode. Various forces, including artillery, support units, engineers, are rushing in from all over the empire, including 2 divisions near Truk and some tank units. Only 5 of my 8 BB's are readily available, (2 under months long repair at Yokohoma from sub torp hits). Also, several Oscar, Betty, & Nick fighter squadrons are also shuttling to Truk, in preparation for new bases in the New Hebrides area. Hopefully these units will allow me to either gain air superiority over Noumea and take the island, or at least allow me to beat up the Allies before evacuating. We'll see.

Amphibious forces on the way to finish off Koepang and secure my DEI flank, which is not as strong as I'd like- and i do see an Australian buildup at Broome & Darwin.

Allies are trying to counter my moves by landing at Ndeni & Efate (paratroopers), but I do have the KB and a few BB's coming. He has 1,000 AV at Noumea, 2 divisions, 2 regiments, tanks & support. Two American CV's (probably last left alive) were sighted July 13th near Midway trying to destroy one of my resupply convoys. Fortunately my guys have escaped, including the CV Hiryu that was nearby hoping to ambush a US bombardment fleet headed towards Midway (but now 2 CV's were sighted with it so I backed away). The CV HIryu will probably head to join the 4 carrier, KB. CVL Shoho also on the way after repairs at Yokohoma.

Lastly, I paid out almost all of my 6,000+ political points on the Manchukuo units i converged on Changsha. My opponent and I discussed, even though we did not have any House Rules, that it was fair for me to pay the political points. I agreed, and told him I'd had the points for a long time so I had not accrued some unfair advantage in moving those troops there. I don't want to be "gamey" but keep a good challenging fair campaign going. More news to come...

[Tophat1815]

Update?

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

Update coming probably by Tuesday... my opponent and i are both traveling and will have turns ready soon.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

July 17th 1942

American CV's (possibly 2) are spotted by subs returning to PH. Midway resupply goes on. The KB is only 1-2 turns away from interdicting allied supply to Noumea (between Noumea and Fiji that is). More troop convoys with base forces and engineers en route. A surface TF of the Yamato and some cruisers is on the way to bombard the American landings at Ndeni and Efate (both port size 1 and airfield 0 still). One of those islands will be the link between Rabaul- Tulagi- Base - Koumac- La Foa. I think once i have a strong air base out of easy escort range from Noumea, i can get local naval superiority and enough CAP to get my convoys in.

I attached a snapshot of my production and resources as of now-- keep in mind, you are talking to a player who has never gotten this far as the Japanese. I think i may have made some mistakes to be corrected there.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I attached a snapshot of my production and resources as of now-- keep in mind, you are talking to a player who has never gotten this far as the Japanese. I think i may have made some mistakes to be corrected there.

Judging by your numbers, it doesn't look TOO bad. Your Veh points (and production) are low, but Arm looks fine. I'm concerned by your Oil and Fuel levels, but my reference point is Scenario 2 (and I can't remember if you're playing 1 or 2). Your aircraft production looks a little low, but hard to tell from that screen.

That's just from what's on the screen there, though. Do you really have enormous NavSY and MerchSY points in the pools? Wowzer. I've never been past 1/1/43 as Japan (against the AI), and I hear that you'll want merchant points built up for later, but why not use those Nav points?


On-topic, I think your approach to salvaging New Caledonia is on the right track. How is the supply situation on the island now?

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

hi Lokasenna,

Ok rookie confession- I don't really understand what it means to have too many shipyard points for my Navy and Merchants. Does that mean i should cancel more ships? Or turn shipyards off to save resources? Confused as to the best solution there.

This is scenario 1. The fuel is a problem. I've got half the Japanese fleet rushing troops to Truk and the Noumea area. Enough is coming from the DEI direct to Truk to sustain this major operation but I could have managed the gas better.

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.


There's at least 75,000 supply on Caledonia, and 100k on ships at Truk. Also each new convoy is carrying its own supply for the smaller island chain buildups between Rabaul and Noumea. So we've got time fortunately.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

hi Lokasenna,

Ok rookie confession- I don't really understand what it means to have too many shipyard points for my Navy and Merchants. Does that mean i should cancel more ships? Or turn shipyards off to save resources? Confused as to the best solution there.

This is scenario 1. The fuel is a problem. I've got half the Japanese fleet rushing troops to Truk and the Noumea area. Enough is coming from the DEI direct to Truk to sustain this major operation but I could have managed the gas better.

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.


There's at least 75,000 supply on Caledonia, and 100k on ships at Truk. Also each new convoy is carrying its own supply for the smaller island chain buildups between Rabaul and Noumea. So we've got time fortunately.

I don't want to go off-topic from Caledonia too much, but since a PBEM grand campaign represents such a significant investment of time:

I just meant that you have 30,000-some naval shipyard points in your pool, and 60,000-some merchant points (it's basically like HI - you build it with the shipyards, and it's used up by the ships under production). This means that you are effectively overbuilding each turn and storing the production for later. I've heard that this is good to do for late war for merchant shipping, when you won't be able to keep up with your needs. With that kind of pool of NavSY points, you should be able to accelerate all of your Unryu CVs and then some!

I don't know exactly what the difference is between scen 1 and scen 2 on Oil/Fuel. In Tracker, how much does your global oil/fuel level change each turn, on average? With 3229 Refineries going, your oil should be dropping somewhere around (32290 - 27250) per turn, or about 5040 per turn, yes? That's only 410 more days of refining at full capacity, or until September 1, 1943. Assuming you lose no oil production between now and then. Are there other sources of oil you might be able to grab (Magwe, vulnerable as it is, or northern China)?

On the bottom-right of that industry screen, there is Aircraft Engines: 412 + (81 -rd) and Aircraft Assembly: 458 + (10 - rd). That is what I was looking at for your aircraft production. What do your aircraft pools look like? Of course it depends on how much you lose, but later in the war you're going to lose a lot more as the Allied fighters get better. Your numbers raise my eyebrows a little because my aircraft production targets total around 750 in mid- to late-1942, with the number of engines necessary to support it as well as building up some engines in the pool for the R&D bonus.

And I must add a disclaimer that I've never played a PBEM grand campaign, and there are others on here with a far deeper background on IJ production than I. I hope they can expand on (and, I'm sure, correct some of) my advice.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

The aircraft production looks lower than it is-- this snapshot shows by city, not total by aircraft. Also A6M3 Zero production about to shoot up to 90, and I've got 330 A6M2 Zeroes in the pool. Basically focusing on Oscars, Zeroes, Nick's, Betty's, Kate's and Val's for combat aircraft.

Lee,

You know that A6M3 aircraft are not carrier capable, right? It's the A6M3a that is the follow-on to the A6M2 for your carriers. Many Japanese players build A6M3 in moderation or not at all, pending the arrival of the A6M3a.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Do you really have enormous NavSY and MerchSY points in the pools? Wowzer. I've never been past 1/1/43 as Japan (against the AI), and I hear that you'll want merchant points built up for later, but why not use those Nav points?

Indeed. You can probably halt additional merchant SY production for now and use what you've saved. This will save you some HI to bank for other more pertinent uses.

The large number of Naval SY points saved suggests that you haven't accelerated any (or very few) ships in your build cue. True? You may want to look that over and consider getting some useful CV, DD and E classes whilest they'll still do you some good. Getting the Unryu class CVs in late 1944-1945 will make them less useful for your struggle in the interim.

[Q-Ball]

Chickenboy is right, and I'll add to the chorus:

1. Turn off Merchant SY for now, and maybe forever. Barring massive losses, Japan doesn't need to build alot of merchant ships (counterintuitive, I know, but there it is)

2. Naval SY: ACCELERATE some ships; it's a bit late to start, but I would Accelerate TAIHO, and the first 3 UNRYUs. You can still get them in fall of 1943.

3. VEHICLES: You need more Vehicle factories than that; expand at least another 50 or so

4. Can't see if you have Port Moresby, but I would set-up a seaplane base at Rossel Is or Milne Bay, to watch in that direction.

The PARA landings at Ndeni and Efate are gifts to the emperor; start prepping a couple units, but you should be able to wipe them out. They are very light units, if they are the Marine Paras, which they have to be. Where were they dropped from anyway; Suva? Or Noumea?

BONUS: Occupy Luganville ASAP; anything will do, but just put some bodies there. With the IJN around, he can't do anything about it, but you need to occupy. I would get a base force there, and build an airstrip.

[Saros]

In Scen 1 you should be able to accelerate all destroyers available for acceleration at any one time as well as the first three Unryu class CV's. If they are accelerated you should get them around the same time as the Essexes are coming online. Once the Musashi is done you can look into accelerating some of the light cruisers as well. Cancel the Shinano as its an enormous amount of HI for a pretty bad carrier. Look into accelerating some CVE as well as they use merchant build points and you have a ridiculous amount of them.

Further shipyard things off the top of my head:
-You should probably cancel the RO-100 series submarines, they are 24 build points and have only 4 TT tubes, 4k range and 14kts max speed. Not even slightly worth it.
-Cancel the 3 build point xAKLs in your que, they are totally useless.
-Cancel the late war CVEs. They only carry 8 planes, so are no good at all.
-SST classes are mostly not worth it, consider cancellation.
-Convert your STD-A, B and C xAK's to tankers, you always need more tankers.
-The two CLAA conversions are totally worth it, IJN CL's are pretty useless and cant even take on modern allied destroyers 1:1.
-Consider converting the CS to CVL in november, make sure to have the airgroups aboard when you do as some of them change from floatplane groups to Fighter/DB groups.

[leehunt27@bloomberg.net]

I have the 56th SNLF on the way to Luganville now, should be there in 5 turns on barges from Koumac (a desparate move, they are basically paddling canoes across the Pacific to get there ASAP). I also have several engineers, construction units and base forces also on the way to Luganville, with protection from the KB. Luganville will be a formidable base and capable of supporting operations against any Allied threats to my supply lines from Truk down to Caledonia.

This is fantastic advice on productions and shipyards. Thank you Saros, Chickenboy, Lokasenna and Q-Ball. The A6M3 I am producing even though not carrier capable because I have a decent amount of off-carrier Zero squadrons. I would love to get the A6M3(a)'s as soon as possible for my KB. I am also sending the rest of the CVL's and the Hiryu down to the Caledonia area as well, to allow one of the KB CV's out for upgrading at a time.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

I have the 56th SNLF on the way to Luganville now, should be there in 5 turns on barges from Koumac (a desparate move, they are basically paddling canoes across the Pacific to get there ASAP). I also have several engineers, construction units and base forces also on the way to Luganville, with protection from the KB. Luganville will be a formidable base and capable of supporting operations against any Allied threats to my supply lines from Truk down to Caledonia.

This is fantastic advice on productions and shipyards. Thank you Saros, Chickenboy, Lokasenna and Q-Ball. The A6M3 I am producing even though not carrier capable because I have a decent amount of off-carrier Zero squadrons. I would love to get the A6M3(a)'s as soon as possible for my KB. I am also sending the rest of the CVL's and the Hiryu down to the Caledonia area as well, to allow one of the KB CV's out for upgrading at a time.

Quick question: how does one paddle barges that far? The big ones only have a range of 3 hexes IIRC, so do you stick some big ships in with them to refuel them (can they even do that?)?

And you're welcome!

[Jorge_Stanbury]

Trick is to rebase to destination... 1st turn they will consume all fuel and then they will just move 2 hexes per turn, acruing damage in the process... damage accumulation is relatively slow, so 5 turns is feasible

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

Trick is to rebase to destination... 1st turn they will consume all fuel and then they will just move 2 hexes per turn, acruing damage in the process... damage accumulation is relatively slow, so 5 turns is feasible

And when they arrive you clearly just return to pool or scuttle or something, right? Heh. I should do this.

[Cap Mandrake]

Wait, is this New Caledonia or Caledonia?

If you attack Caledonia make sure to take along a translator so you can figure out what the heck they are saying.

The guys in the balsa wood rafts may already be doing this but you will need some naval support and some laden AE's to rearm your BB's without going all the way back to Truk or Rabaul.