Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Strike at Sarmi!!

Big event at New Guinea. Erik, true to his usual KB aggressiveness seems to be rather annoyed with my position at Sarmi. He losses 224 planes of which about 100 are KB planes probably lost with pilots and all! [&o]

I lose 8 pilots but gain 5(!) new triple aces and more double aces then I can count. Over the last two days Erik has lost some 500 navy planes with hopefully a crapload of pilots. What must be even more annoying for him is that in an email yesterday he mentioned he was a bit upset over his bombers going for combat ships instead of the transports at Biak. I replied that he shouldn´t be too upset as I have plenty of assault transports and that even if he had wiped out the lot if you be an inconvenience at most... When I replied he had already given the orders to attack Sarmi... [:D]

And to add insult to injury not a single Allied ship are in danger of sinking. While I lost some 80 fighters only 20 of those are P47s. The rest I can easily replace. Heaviest losses are among the Hellcats which is not surprising considering I have only fresh pilots in them.

Tomorrow
Looks like Erik might try a surface raid. I won´t disband any ships to port as "Port attack" is...well...what it is. I will have to rely on the Surface forces currently available to stop any attempts to raid Sarmi anchorage. I have 60 PT boats, St.Louis, Helena and Cleveland together with 16 Fletchers ready for action. The Montpellier is damaged but could still pack a punch. In addition I have 10 more Fletchers at Dagua that will be set to race the 7 hexes up to Sarmi. At Dagua is also a 4 CA TF and Fast BB TF. I will retire them though as I can´t spare an LRCAP for them.

Question is if he will stay with the KB... I think he might. I will swap out the fatigued air groups for fresh ones and hunker down under Sarmi CAP. I´m guessing Erik thinks I´ll withdraw south towards Dagua with all the shipping. So he will likely try and intercept them and/or go for Sarmi directly. Hopefully he will instead meet the 10 DD Fletcher TF at night coming up from Dagua.

I´m very happy with this strike. It has gained him nothing and has weekend KB at a critical time. I can only speculate on his reasoning. Either he thinks the assault shipping is critical for me or the New Guinea advance has him REALLY worried.

This still has the potential to turn really sour for me tomorrow. But fingers crossed...

[JocMeister]

My favorite Squadron in the game. [&o] I have a better P47 one but I really have a soft spot for Corsairs. Three of the new triple aces were in this squadron. 215 kills by a 18 plane Squadron. Pretty impressive I think! [:)]

This is not a "super squadron" I made up from various pilots from other squadrons. They all started out together. When I have added pilots to it I have taken fresh ones from the pool.

98 EXP is the highest I have ever seen in the game!

[Speedysteve]

Very nice. A climatic few days. That's  lot of attrition Erik is facing. Not that I've played the Japanese for years but I wouldn't assume he can keep up that pace and pilot attrition.....

[ny59giants]

From my limited experience playing both sides, I see...
Japan - no problem with airframes, but can be short of quality pilots
Allies - no problem with pilots (especially Americans), but are short on airframes.

[JocMeister]

Well, you view on the Allies I can confirm. Pilots are certainly not an issue but I´m crying for good USAAF frames. Erik mentioned IJN pilots specifically. So I´m guessing IJA ones arn´t a problem?

[JocMeister]

Airlosses

[JocMeister]

Top pilots

[JocMeister]

The expected battle did not begin. Erik withdrew with everything. I´ll do an update tomorrow. Daughter was up at 4 this morning meaning so was daddy... [>:]

[ny59giants]

Aerial Mines - Have you thought about using them to mine the bases that KB is using to refuel?? Your B-24s should have the range to do this.

[Speedysteve]

I always find the aerial mining thing to be a waste of time. Sure the bombers can't be attacked but the attack is visible and the Japs know there's mines been laid there. Several AM's can very quickly get rid of them

[JocMeister]

Never tried using them. He seems to be refueling at Badelbaob. As Speedy says, is it really worth it? Might give it a shot just for the fun of it. I guess if you are dropping the mines when the KB actually is there I might get lucky? [:)]

[JocMeister]

Waiting for a turn from Erik. I´ll do the update after that. Apparently something happened that pissed him off which probably means good news for me. Don´t know what it could be though as the only offensive things I did was a night bombardment of Biak and deliberate attack following that.

Perhaps the oil at Medan took a good hit during the night?

Could also be that he tried something that didn´t work out. I moved some 2Es up on long range LOWNAV to Dagua... pretty curious on what happened TBH.

[Historiker]

He's getting slow theses days... I think we are down to maybe three or four turns a week [:-]

[JocMeister]

20th-23rd May -44

Some good and some bad...

New Guinea
This is where it all happened. After the Sarmi strike Erik withdrew from the area. I sorted out CAP and whatnot and decided to do the first deliberate attack on Biak after the reinforcement. Went well over expectations and the prepping of a Corps HQ and Command HQ payed off for the first time! [&o]

Ground combat at Biak (87,110)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22546 troops, 455 guns, 596 vehicles, Assault Value = 943

Defending force 19393 troops, 119 guns, 98 vehicles, Assault Value = 603

Allied adjusted assault: 1669 [&o]

Japanese adjusted defense: 949

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 3

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1934 casualties reported
Squads: 41 destroyed, 83 disabled
Non Combat: 12 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled


Allied ground losses:
722 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 30 (1 destroyed, 29 disabled)
Vehicles lost 54 (3 destroyed, 51 disabled)


Assaulting units:
1st USMC Tank Battalion
110th Combat Engineer Battalion
32nd Infantry Division
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
138th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
98th Field Artillery Battalion
51st Marine Defense Battalion
2nd RAA Jungle Regiment

Defending units:
3rd South Seas Gsn
53rd Infantry Brigade
49th Infantry Regiment
4th South Seas Gsn
1st Indpt SNLF Coy
I/84th Naval Guard Unit
Kure 2nd SNLF
4th Raiding Rgt /1
8th Garrison Unit
9th Tank Regiment
5th Garrison Unit /1
37th JAAF AF Bn
24th Field AF Construction Battalion
3rd FF Const Unit
66th JNAF AF Unit
13th Air Fleet /1

This is good news. Despite Erik flying in numerous small units we managed to drop the forts to 3. The won´t be going up after this... Tanks and the Calavary division are in great shape.

But again I´m completely powerless to stop him from flying in troops. He has some 400 transports (Aux) spread out at various bases. I´m guessing these are floatplanes since the AF is toast. Despite having 120 Hellcats on LRCAP over Biak nothing happens. It has now jumped from 24k troops to 31k in 3 days. [:(] What can I do??? [&:]

Now for the less fun news...I think Erik played me and I fell for it. Remember the thing that pissed him off? On the 22nd my DBs flew against a BIG BB TF NE of Sarmi consisting of

BB Yamato, Bomb hits 1
BB Fuso
BB Yamashiro, Bomb hits 1
BB Ise, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BB Musashi, Bomb hits 1

Erik complained in an E-mail about this TF reacting to something out of CAP protection and stuff. I didn´t think much of it but thought since they wrongly got there he would just withdraw after getting the paint scratched. I did not send any PTs or Fletcher after him. Well, I guess I should have...

Night Time Surface Combat, near Sarmi at 91,114, Range 9,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 2 destroyed
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
BB Yamato, Shell hits 1
BB Musashi, Shell hits 3
BB Fuso, Shell hits 7
BB Yamashiro, Shell hits 2
BB Ise, Shell hits 2
DD Shimakaze, Shell hits 1
DD Maikaze, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Amatsukaze, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Harusame, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
DD Yamakaze, Shell hits 8, heavy fires

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
CA Wichita, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Baltimore, Shell hits 10, and is sunk
CA Boston, Shell hits 3
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 1
DD Beale
DD Chauncey, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Claxton
DD Kimberly, Shell hits 1
DD Philip, Shell hits 1
DD Spence
DD Wadleigh, Shell hits 8, and is sunk

Can´t say I´m too happy about it. He sent them straight into Sarmi at night. Somehow he also managed to avoid combat with the numerous other TFs there and still sprint out of bomber range in the morning. Not sure if this was a Maskirovka or he simply took advantage of the situation. Whatever it was I payed a pretty hefty price for it... [:(]

CENTPAC
Well, the gig is up! Erik spotted one of my CV TFs (3/3 DL). No point in hiding anymore. In we go. I decided to forgo the BB bombardment. They are still 4 days away. Only 2 units and 2600 troops with 26 guns. Could be empty of combat troops.

Erik is hanging out at Babeldaob with more or less the whole IJN(see screenshot). He could actually get within range of my CVs in 3-4 days at cruise speed and only 2 days at flank. Not sure why his is staying in sight. I don´t think he will show up. Not for Eniwetok. I´m actually starting to think he will give up the Marianas. Strangely enough I just got intel on Marcus which is heavily fortified. No clue how he is reasoning.

Burma
Well, Erik abandoned Prome which was probably a mistake. While it was in a clear hex he still had level 6 forts there. I won´t have to worry about the supply in the area anymore as 80.000 just flowed in from Ramree to Prome in Monsoon. I was a bit worried I would have to cancel operations during the Monsoon and withdraw to Ramree. I decided to just send a token force to Bassain. Supply more or less forced me too. I´m concentrating on bombing the AF at Rangoon hopefully burning supply.

NOPAC
My little "poor mans" invasion is detected. With the LST it takes forever to get anywhere. 6 FPs get through the 60 Hellcat CAP and puts a 60kg bomb in one of the LSTs.

DEI
In about a week the first assault shipping should arrive. With the whole IJN at the wrong side of New Guinea I´ve decided to make the jump. I will try to land 2 divisions in one go to establish a base immediately. I´m hoping Erik doesn´t keep a very close eye on Darwin and mistakes the APAs/AKAs for one of the numerous cargo TFs cruising the area. I will rely on DDs to cover everything. Another TF of 12 Fletchers are on the way.

[ny59giants]

Went well over expectations and the prepping of a Corps HQ and Command HQ payed off for the first time! [&o]

Great, now you can send me my royalties check. [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Went well over expectations and the prepping of a Corps HQ and Command HQ payed off for the first time! [&o]

Great, now you can send me my royalties check. [:D]

What?! Isn´t the opportunity to hang out on the internet with such a dashing fellow as myself reward enough? [:D]

[JocMeister]

No turn from Erik this morning. That usually means something is up. He might be pondering seeking battle with my CVs or not. Might also just have fallen asleep on the couch...[:D] In a fit of bad timing Josephs usual turn didn´t arrive this morning and the AAR is up to date...Bloody Murphy! [:D]

So I guess I will have to spend the morning worrying about stuff and writing a long monologue! [:D]

CVs vs KB

The CV clash between koniu and docup got me thinking. Results like that always makes you wonder if you have done the right thing or not. Initially I was worried that my chosen path to go fighter heavy on the CVEs was the wrong one. But I realised this might actually be the right call. Being fighter heavy almost guarantees my strike (although smaller and if it takes off) will get through. I have around 1600 CV planes (actually its closer to 1800). I´m estimating about 65% of those are fighters. Thats 960 Fighters. About 50% of those are on CAP which leaves 480 fighters free for escort.

Assuming a best case scenario that would give a strike package of 560 TBs/DBs ecorted by 480 Fighters. No CAP in the world can stop that (in this game). I don´t think the CAP would even have a chance to get to the bombers. So having a fighter heavy setup should enable most (if not all) of my smaller strike package to get through?

Unfortunately this also applies to the KB. Whatever CAP I put up won´t be enough and he will get through. What I do have that Erik lacks though is number of ships. I have 54 CV/CVL/CVEs. With some luck his bombers will decide to a go for a CVE here, a CVE there. If the latest KB strikes are any indication of a future battle he will get some fragmentation. Possible 1 big chunk and 2-3 smaller possible unescorted. While I won´t be able to stop everything in the first one hopefully I can stop the followup ones.

What I´m hoping for is that sheer number of ships will save me. I have almost 5 times the number of ships than he has which should let at least some of my ships escape unharmed. That should put me in a much better position at Day 2 than Erik assuming results of Day 1 are not extremely one sided.

I feel fairly confident going into battle. But I do regret exchanging the SBDs for Helldivers. I still have some 10% of the DBs repairing. Some still have 15([X(]) days until ready despite being at sea for 10 days already. This also lessens my 2nd day capabilities. I will switch back to SBDs as soon as possible. I will also go through all available leaders today and lower some of the CAP down to 10k. They are currently all set on 14k. I think I will put the Corsairs up at 15k and the Hellcats on 10. 1-2 Groups will be put on 6k. Obviously I have high hopes for the 200 Corsairs. Perhaps their speed will allow them to get to some of the bombers in Eriks main strike?

While Erik has had time to really train up all his KB pilots he has squandered some of them in unnecessary strikes over the last year. I think he has a slight edge here but I hope numbers and better AC can make up for it.

I´m still sticking with the same setup I outlined earlier. Of course I now have a few more CVLs and a lot more CVEs!

CV Setup

TF1
3 US CVs (1 on CAP Range 1)
4 CVLs (All with Corsair on CAP Range 1)

TF2
3 US CV (1 on CAP Range 1)
1 British CV (Corsair II on CAP Range 1)
3 CVLs (All with Corsair on CAP Range 1)

TF3
1 Brit CVL (CAP R1)
5 CVEs with Strike Planes (4TBs/1DB)
5 CVE (Escort)
4 CVE (CAP R1)

TF4
1 Brit CVE
5 CVEs with Strike Planes (4TBs/1DB)
5 CVE (Escort)
4 CVE (CAP R1)

What do you guys think of the setup? Don´t want to do anything foolish here.

[JocMeister]

24th May -44

Again some good and some bad...

New Guinea
Our second 3rd attack manage to lower the forts even further!

Ground combat at Biak (87,110)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 21870 troops, 454 guns, 595 vehicles, Assault Value = 832

Defending force 18506 troops, 123 guns, 95 vehicles, Assault Value = 520

Allied adjusted assault: 934

Japanese adjusted defense: 597

Allied assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1801 casualties reported
Squads: 22 destroyed, 98 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 16 (1 destroyed, 15 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
1680 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 103 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 45 disabled
Engineers: 40 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 25 (3 destroyed, 22 disabled)
Vehicles lost 40 (5 destroyed, 35 disabled)

Looking at the actual replay all the small combat units Erik has flown in are already more or less destroyed. Only the 8th Garrison unit and the 49th Infantry RGT still look in decent shape. My troops are starting to show signs of deterioration too. The 32nd ID are in really bad shape with only 206 AV left. The Combat Engineers are also spent and won´t be able to participate in anymore combat. Positive thing is that both Armor units are in excellent shape. Not a single Sherman has been disabled or destroyed. 1st Cavalry is also still very strong. This unit is turning out to be a fine combat unit.

Question: Would attacking with only the 2 armor units be of any use or are they better off resting together with the rest of the troops until they all can attack?

Strangely enough Erik has chosen to remain here with the KB. In sight. Don´t know if he will try and reinforce. Sent two Fletcher TFs to Biak over night to see what I can catch. Also sent 100 Fighters on Sweep to see if I can kill some more KB pilots. I think Erik is making a mistake reinforcing Biak and devoting such a massive amount of troops and ships here. But I´ll happily take it. Seeing the KB here means he will give me Eniwetok for free. Thank you! [:)]

CENTPAC
Eniwetok will fall very quickly. First air assault went in today with very good results.

Afternoon Air attack on 63rd Naval Guard Unit, at 127,108 (Eniwetok)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes


Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 180
TBM-1C Avenger x 131


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
243 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Only a Nav Guard unit and a AF Battalion. Losses indicate low level of forts. I will land in two days. This base will be a very good staging point. Capturing Eniwetok also means all the troops on Truk will be isolated and Erik now really has to pay attention around Biak. My CVs will be just a short dash away. I´m going to neutralize Ponape from the air. This will allow me to go the CENTPAC route to New Guinea. It will save me over a month of travel time. I have substantial Surface forces at Wake that will move under CV cover to New Guinea shortly. CV Franklin has left PH together with 4CAs and around 20 Fletchers.

Burma
Here for the bad part... Erik suddenly opposed my bombings of Rangoon. He was very, very lucky with his timing as my sweeps from Ramree rained in fort the first time in several days. Crap. I lost some 50 bombers mostly 2Es. Luckily only 28 pilots are MIA/KIA and most of the losses are the obsolete B25C (32). I do loose 8 B24Js which sucks.

Darwin
Assault shipping has just left Finschafen. I´m going to start probing his defense setting up CAP traps and generally just be annoying. Wonder if he will shift the KB around when he sees the APA/AKAs.

NOPAC
The mini invasion is moving at a snails pace. Two more days until the first part land...then I have to back and get the rest of the troops. [>:]

Marianas
Erik has now reinforced Saipan. Almost 10.000 troops are listed there. Its too little and too late! It does show though that Erik won´t give it away for free. I´m still quietly optimistic. I highly doubt he will be able to bring in enough troops to stop almost 2000AV of the absolutely best men and material the allies have to offer at this stage.

[JocMeister]

Last major sub OP of the war

I went for one last glory ride of the submarine force. Results confirmed my earlier beliefs that it is counter productive to use my subs in a merchant hunting role.

Mission
28 Subs went out from Calcutta set with various destination in the South China sea. Guess how many made it?

Results
- 4 Subs are hit and sunk outright by ASW air before being able to reach their destinations
- 1 sub is hit by Super "Es" and is sunk before arriving to its destination
- 19([X(]) subs are hit by ASW air and forced to RTB before arriving at their destination
- 4 Subs arrive at their destination. 2 are sunk on the first day. 1 sub is damaged by ASW air on the first day and is RTB.
- 1 sub has arrived at its destination and is still undamaged.

Results
1 AK damaged and possible sunk
1 "E" confirmed sunk

Things to note.
As soon as my subs approached a Jap base they were ALL instantly slammed with a 10/10 DL. Not a few but every single one of them. I later reconned the base in question and there are 8 bombers stationed there.

Even I was amazed at the sheer number of hits my subs received. It took only 3 days to hit 23 subs. All subs were upgraded and had air warning radar. It might have been more bombers involved in the ASW duty since I failed to get recon from two other bases that could have contributed though.

From now on my subs will be on a purely scout role and/or working together with naval forces.

[JocMeister]

25th May -44

New Guinea
Quiet. Erik is holding back with the KB and what looks to be some CA/CL TFs. No troop ships in sight and nothing encountered at Biak on the night run. Sweeps rain in but bombers go through unmolested. On a hunch I stood down the bombers next turn. I´m thinking Erik might think this is a good opportunity to ambush my 4Es.

I´m starting to think this is not a reinforcement mission but rather to stop me from reinforcing. Supply is a worry but I should have enough for 2-3 more attacks. I don´t think I will need the extra Arty and troops. I don´t know if its helping but it does look like having the SWPAC Command HQ in range helps with recovery. Anyone knows? I recovered almost 30 AV in just a turn.

OZ
All quiet.

Burma
Troops resting fatigue. I will soon launch a last attempt.

Eniwetok
Troops will land tomorrow! My CVE force make another attack on the troops. Results are a little bit worse than yesterday. Probably due to weather.

Afternoon Air attack on 63rd Naval Guard Unit, at 127,108 (Eniwetok)

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes


Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 238
SBD-5 Dauntless x 50
TBF-1 Avenger x 100
TBM-1C Avenger x 40


Allied aircraft losses
SBD-5 Dauntless: 4 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
70 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

CVEs and CVs will hold one hex outside Eniwetok tomorrow. Two minesweeping TFs will race into Eniwetok during the night.

Marianas
Fresh intel from Tinian shows it still with only around 2k troops. Lots of Aux at Saipan. Erik might be pulling troops in from Truk via air. If so this another clear indication he is severely short on troops in the area.