Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Re: that para assault on Efate in post #114 - he was sitting behind level 3 forts and paratroopers lack the stuff needed to destroy defences and root them out. He also had a terrain defensive bonus. He must have had a very good leader there to get a '-' on the allied side; I think the +/- ratings are relative between the combattants, not relative to some fixed value. The only other think I can think of is that the para leader didn't land with the group or was killed/disabled in the landing.
How did you get a deliberate attack there - I thought paras always shock attacked when they landed?

That makes good sense now in hindsight! Next time I will bring bigger guns! Didn´t know it counted the difference between leaders! Good info. Thank you! [:)]

I actually sent them there by boat. Hence the deliberate attack. Recon showed only 30 troops or something like that. Lesson learned! [:D]

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar Day 2 Losses

First sweep went in and took a beating. All Hellcat losses are from the first group. It will later show that this was the green group. I lost 9! pilots from that group. I might have to consider using newly trained groups for this purpose. I don´t have the pilot pool to sustain losses like this.

Nevertheless the second group just smashes his CAP.

Morning Air attack on Katha , at 61,43

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 38,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 7
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 12
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 26



Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 36


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 3 destroyed

No Allied losses

Tomorrow the Hurris will go in! 120 Hurricanes will Sweep/LRCAP.

In the SoPac area I have been having some 4E fun while waiting for Efafe to be built up. Yesterday I completely wiped out all troops on Mornington Island. At least I think I did because the target setting was reset on all 4Es.

Morning Air attack on 8th Indpt SNLF Coy , at 84,135 (Mornington Island)

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 57
B-17F Fortress x 12
LB-30 Liberator x 15
B-24D Liberator x 72
B-24D1 Liberator x 54


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
568 casualties reported
Squads: 22 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 9 (5 destroyed, 4 disabled)

That was fun! [:D]

Today we visited to lovely island of Horn Island.

Morning Air attack on Kure 2nd SNLF , at 91,128 (Horn Island)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 66
B-17F Fortress x 12
LB-30 Liberator x 15
B-24D Liberator x 69
B-24D1 Liberator x 59


No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
1208 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 42 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 111 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 28 (1 destroyed, 27 disabled)

This is turning out to be great fun! [:D] But I will probably stand them down for a while now. Don´t want Erik to get second thoughts about making a stand on Ndeni.

Here are to losses for today.

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 3 Losses

Hurricanes went in today and didn´t fare very well. They got pretty beat up by what I can only think is an Elite group of A5M5s. The Zekes did all the killing. Despite this I´m not to beat down. All my Hurris were piloted by pretty green pilots (50/70/60). All except one group that came in alone on the second sweep.

Morning Air attack on Katha , at 61,43

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 15 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 3 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 12
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 15
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 51



Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 16
Hurricane IIc Trop x 47


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 5 destroyed

Second sweep.

Morning Air attack on Katha , at 61,43

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 6
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 9
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 24



Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 18


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 2 destroyed

Tomorrow 100 P40Ks with low exp pilots will go in. I think the future of the Burma airwar will be decided with this sweep. This is really the only airframe and pilot pool that can sustain any kind of attrition. If they go in and do catastrophic results as usual when it comes to the P40 I will probably have to rethink some bits.

I still have alot of unused bombers sitting around...

I have decided to withdraw and upgrade my groundtroops from Burma. Monsoon is about to break anyway. I also have some serious firepower coming in. Two US divisions and a high exp Indian divison is arriving shortly. I have also flow in two MASSIVE Chinese Corps from China. This will add something like 2500 AV I think. Not sure how much AV the Chinese Corps will hold when they are filled up. Could be even more.

We will return with a vengeance...

SoPac

Looks like Erik is withdrawing from Deboyne and Rossel Island. Heh, guess he didn´t like what 200 4Es can do to ground troops exposed without air cover.

Luganville invasion is still gathering up. I also made a very stupid mistake again. I noticed my airframes wern´t repairing on Tanna. The AS unit there had 96 in fatigue despite me making sure not to go over the limit... But it turns out the SUPPORT was shorty be about 100. I guess that fatigued the AS unit... an USA BF with 200 support is on its way. I might have to postpone the invasion until this is sorted.

I also started sweeping all bases from mines as Erik was trying to be cute and used subs to mine some ports. Lost 2 PTs to mines...

Here are todays losses.

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 4 Losses

I was actually pleasantly surprised today. The P40Ks with completely green pilots held there own getting about a 1:1 ratio. I think Eriks Tojos flying LRCAP from the south are suffering a bit from fatigue.

I had the upper hand early on in the combat before the Tojos arrived, got the dive and tore into the P40.

Morning Air attack on Katha , at 61,43

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 26 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 11
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 15
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 42



Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 99


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 3 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 7 destroyed

I have decided to keep going for one more rotation. So the P38 are up today. They should do well. A bit surprised Erik hasn´t made any big commitment yet. Either he is happy with the loss ratio or he fears I will strike with bombers at his rear area and feels he needs to maintain CAP.

Todays losses

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 5 Losses

The first really good day for the allies. 75 P38 with the absolute elite of the US army tear into the Jap CAP at Katha.

Results are excellent.

Afternoon Air attack on Katha , at 61,43

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 56 NM, estimated altitude 31,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 11
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 20
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 39
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 3



Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 25
P-38F Lightning x 25
P-38G Lightning x 25


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 8 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 5 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38F Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-38G Lightning: 1 destroyed

We also see the combat debut of the Tojo IIb as two "leak" over to the combat. One is damaged. I think Erik is stacking the armored Oscars low to get my sweep down. Unfortunately for Erik the armor helped little, and the speed of the P38 and experience of the pilots meant I got a tonnes of "P38 evades" when the Tojos dived.

Very happy about today.

Losses:

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 6 Losses

Not a very good day for the Allies. The LRCAP set to go in with the sweep failed to do so. Does anyone have any idea on why this happens from time to time?

So 35 Hellcats go in alone. Only 2 pilots lost though. So thats a blessing!

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 7 Losses

Worst day so far for the Allies. I had several sweeps set to go in over Katha followed by a huge air bombardment of the airfield with the intention of closing it. I have been trying to avoid using LRCAP over the same base as I send in bombers as this nullifies the use of escort. So I had several groups including a group of Hellcats set on sweep. Everything flew as it was supposed to taking massive losses. But not the bombers. So all losses were completely in vain. That sucks [:(]
I should mention that the sweeps went in from the same base as the bombers. No clue why they didn´t fly!

Losses:

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Day 8 Losses

The 3 well rested and now almost filled up P38s go in again. And don´t do to well. The simply suffer too high losses for this to be sustained.

I now have no rested and filled up squadrons to send in. For the first time in 8 days. No mission will be flown over Burma. [:(]

I will try and sum up tomorrow why I think this Airwar failed.

But hopefully I will have some other fun screens to post tomorrow concerning OZ... Stay tuned! [:)]

Losses for the day:

[JocMeister]

Why you should not stack 80 bombers withing 4E range on a level 4 airfield with only 16 Zeroes for cap!

I have been trying to get this strike in for over a week but they have failed to fly for unknown reason. But this turn they finally took off. Feel the 4E love? [:D]

Morning Air attack on Exmouth , at 50,129

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 42
B-17F Fortress x 8
LB-30 Liberator x 13
B-24D Liberator x 57
B-24D1 Liberator x 39


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 damaged
G3M3 Nell: 26 destroyed on ground
Ki-49-IIa Helen: 10 destroyed on ground
Ki-57-II Topsy: 3 destroyed on ground
Ki-46-III Dinah: 1 destroyed on ground
E13A1 Jake: 1 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
9 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 23
Airbase supply hits 9
Runway hits 75

[BBfanboy]

Nice haul! Bagging a bunch of the hated Nells or Betties always lifts the spirits!
I have noticed that the Combat Report count of destroyed aircraft always seems to be about 40% less than the ground losses shown on the Intel report for the day. Do you have any feel for which figure is more accurate?

[JocMeister]

I´m not entirely sure but I think the losses screen are somewhat inflated from the actual damage. I base this on comment Erik has made when he has mention my own losses in email. He always seems to think he made more damage then what has done. But I know my own losses are correct on the screen at least!

Perhaps its somewhere in between the report and the losses screen? [:)]

[JocMeister]

Burma Airwar - Summery

Allied Aircraft losses:
158

Japanese Aircraft losses:
208

Conclusions.

The allied pools can not at its present state engage the Japanese airforce in an attrition war. The only aircraft and pilot pools that sustain attrition for more then a few days are the US army pools and the P40K. But all other pools drained way to fast for comfort.

I will also need more groups able to participate in an offensive. I need to add at least 2 more "rotations" for this to work out. This means waiting for 2 Fighter groups that are to arrive in India in about 2 months. Both are 3 squadron US army groups. One will fly the P47 and the other will fly some airframe that can sustain attrition. In June I get a boost of 20 P38 per month and July is certainly christmas! [:)]

I will stand down any offensive missions for now. New time table is perhaps late July for a renewed air offensive. A ground offensive will start as soon as the monsoon ends in october. This should see some serious firepower. I´m hoping for 8-10k AV.

[ny59giants]

I'm 6 months ahead of you and I hate the damn P-47s. I can shoot them down, but I lose too many in the process. [:(]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I'm 6 months ahead of you and I hate the damn P-47s. I can shoot them down, but I lose too many in the process. [:(]

Sounds promising! I actually received 3 groups of P47 last turn. 75 Shiny lovely P47. They were immediately sent on the 36 day voyage to Cape Town.

9/5 -43

I sit and make elaborate plans to start getting at Erik in Burma and all of the sudden I smack him in SoPac without even trying too...

Luganville is mostly empty so I just sent in a small Amphib force with a Regiment and an AirHQ. I moved in some P38s and Corsairs to LRCAP from Efafe. Whoever said that the Corsair isn´t that good needs to rethink a thing or two. Because they ruled the sky this turn. From what I have seen so far its absolutely on top of the Allied arsenal at this stage. Even with worse pilots then the P38s the Corsair bagged about 70% of the total losses.

Very pleased with the results!

[JocMeister]

I´m getting spoiled with fantastic turns lately!

I´m pretty sure Akagi is a goner after two TTs. Erik told me in an email this turn kind of took the wind out of him. You can see the AI formed a "cripple" TF. Also the Akagi hasn´t moved a single hex after the attack and are still in the same hex!

I think this might very well be the 1st CV sunk by a US SS in this game. Unfortunately the Barb was sunk after the attack but but my little digital sailors will be remembered and honored! [:)]

If she does sink...this is the 4th Jap CV that goes down.

4-6 in Jap favour...but whose counting? [:D]

EDIT: I should add that even though Ryujo and Junyo are still on the sunk list my gut tells me they are at best at the repair yard.

[JocMeister]

I think Erik is up to something. He has been returning turns a lot faster and more frequent then usual. I´m also seeing A LOT of OPS losses on his side. So he is moving many air units around. Its up across the board. Both Navy and Army bombers and fighters. He is loosing around 10 planes per turn. Last turn almost 20. So something is definitely up.
Its also very unlike him to sit quietly and watch me creep up towards the Solomons...He has been all over me as soon as I have tried something earlier.

I have a very bad feeling about this... Question is what he is up to? KB (well Akagi was) sighted close to Eniwetok. Was KB moving to or from the SoPac. It was the first sighting for a long time. He might have had them refit at the HI and they are now returning towards SoPac. But if so, why via Eniwetok and not Truk?

Is he going to raid again? Or is he returning to SoPac? Another option is that he is going to smash my NoPac island hopping....

If he raids thats good news. He won´t catch anything. If he is trying to raid the WC or PH again he will take a lot of losses. Even though I only have obsolete planes left there its still close to 500 fighters on the WC and 200 on PH. Enough I hope to really bleed his strike packages.

Nopac, even better! I have almost nothing there. Certainly nothing I would miss.

SoPac. It would complicate things as I´m a bit spread out right now. But it would also give me a good opportunity to strike at him. I still have some 300-400 strike AC available.

Or is he going to do something completely else? I have no clue what that could be though? Counter invade somewhere? Only place I think he can do something is the Line Islands. If he wants them he can have them. As soon as I get a fix on the KB and knows its a few days away I will launch a little surprise.

I may sound confident but I´m really not. He is up to something. Probably something big! I think the key to this is to understand why KB (assuming Akagi was with the KB) at Eniwetok? Raid PH? I have 200 fighters there and nothing of value besides 3 old BBs still repairing from PH.

Anyone have any ideas?

UPDATE:
Just went through the whole Pacific area of the map and found some stuff to take care of to minimize the risks. I rerouted some TFs, intensified search in the Line Islands and CAP at PH. I also started moving stuff from Suva to Noumuea as Suva is more exposed for a possible raid.

I´m 95% certain KB is at Truk right now. I had 7 or 8 ASW attacks by Kates around Truk this turn. I have withdrawn the subs a bit away from Truk.

Lets see where he goes next!

[BBfanboy]

A SOPAC raid sounds most likely if the info in the mouseover is accurate - near Eniwetok and headed SE. The absence of SCTFs and amphib TFs also suggests a raid on convoy routes or an attempt to find any allied amphib TFs passing through.

The Kates near Truk could be from the damaged Akagi limping into port to stabilize flooding and erase system damage before going home for drydock. A 40,000 ton ship is not going to sink from two torps unless fires and explosions finish the job!

I think you are right about KB having been absent for upgrades. I know four of the big carriers can upgrade in June and the other two either May or July . If they were active in that period they likely did their ugrades in August - early Sept. and have just ventured forth again.

That's my 0¢ worth [ don't have my Masters in AE yet to claim the usual 2¢]. [;)]

[JocMeister]

I think you are right about a raid in the SoPac area. Thats the only things that makes any sense right now. He won´t be able to penetrate the line islands without being detected though. I don´t have anything of value moving in the area right now.

He could be trying to ambush the Essex that came online last turn thinking I will move her directly to SoPac. I won´t do that though. He won´t see any carriers until early 42. When I find the time I will sit down and try and assess his CV strength.

Its heartbreaking to hear you don´t think the Akagi sank! I had high hope she was now a coral reef! Crap if you are right! [:)]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I think you are right about a raid in the SoPac area. Thats the only things that makes any sense right now. He won´t be able to penetrate the line islands without being detected though. I don´t have anything of value moving in the area right now.

He could be trying to ambush the Essex that came online last turn thinking I will move her directly to SoPac. I won´t do that though. He won´t see any carriers until early 42. When I find the time I will sit down and try and assess his CV strength.

Its heartbreaking to hear you don´t think the Akagi sank! I had high hope she was now a coral reef! Crap if you are right! [:)]

You found a way to go back to the beginning of '42? You gotta post that in the War Room part of this forum so we can all redo the early war with future reinforcements! [;)]
Don't fret too much about Akagi - if not sunk she is headed for six months or so in the yards. By the time she comes out her role will be to deliver aircraft to your buzzsaw/plane chipper. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Haha, Wooops! 44! [:D]