Ground Combat and Supply - TESTED!!!

[Andy Mac]

It looks like HQ's are at least as important as supply for these calculations

[Knavey]

I know the perfect solution to this debate....release the code that shows how this is calculated.  Matrix has done this several times in the past to clarify and issue.  I do not see any harm in doing it again.
 
[:D]

[qgaliana]

Not sure I tracked everything - but is the answer then that, given enough surplus, supplies will be pushed to units beyond the 2x limit before a combat? Or only if you were very close to start? It seemed like some tests showed the latter only.

Seems that the basic question still remains, and keeps getting lost in the "are the results realistic" arguments. Will the supply model get an LCU supplied for an assault inland? Or only basic defense?

[pauk]

ok, here is how i see the things after the Treespider made tests[&o][&o]

what are most important factors:

1. supply
2. dice roll
3 support (HQs, not sure about base forces)
4. fort level of the defenders
5. support of the command HQ (like Southern Area Army etc...)
6. disruption
7. leaders
8. unit experience
9. weapon statistics


IMPORTANT NOTE: this is not listed in order of importance (except #1 and #2) and i'm not sure if i want to go deeper in ground combat formula. As far as i know, first two are really important factors. Make a sure that, if you want successful attack, you done #1, #3, #5 and have overhelming force.... but dont be suprise if this doesn't works - we have #2![:D]

[treespider]

To support the dice roll here is the latest test -

Parameters- Same two units
Jap supply 1528 req 1528
Chinese supply zero

Support as before enough so that neither unit is in the red

Leadership - set both leaders to 50 for everything but did not change rank

Disruption Zero

Fatigue 5

Experience and Morale 60

Advance weather Off

Prep Points zero for both

No forts

Code: Select all

 Jap	Chin								
 Max	Max								
 AV	AV	J.mAV	CmAV	J Loss	JGL	JVL	C Loss	CGL	X:1
 506	351	108	34	32	2		252	7	3
 506	351	85	35	168	3	1	195	10	2
 506	351	109	17	59	2	1	550	30	6
 506	351	218	39	42	2		205	7	5
 506	351	107	29	65	2	1	334	13	3
 506	351	217	70	19	5		0	0	3
 506	351	216	54	93	2	1	6	0	4
 506	351	200	44	134	2		194	5	4
 506	351	100	32	149	3		438	16	3
 506	351	107	55	58	3	1	24	0	1
 	AVG	146.7	40.9	81.9	2.6	1	219.8	8.8	3.4
 	STDEV	57.47	15.29	51.83	0.97	0.00	183.96	9.27	1.43
 

JmAV - Jap Mod AV
CmAV - Chinese mod AV
JGL - Japanese guns loss
CGL Chinese guns Loss


I can't find any rhyme or reason here --- Although there are two distinct clusters in the Japanese AV one around 100 and the other around 210 ---Perhaps due to a failed leadership roll, being that leadership values were 50.

I also see no correlation between casualties and odds nor between casualties and the opponents mAV.

[Dino]

ORIGINAL: Mogami

If supply present exceeds required by 2x the unit has a 2x combat bonus.

I would still like to know if this can be verified or not.

[pauk]

don't thinks so.... thanks for the tests...

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: Dino

ORIGINAL: Mogami

If supply present exceeds required by 2x the unit has a 2x combat bonus.

I would still like to know if this can be verified or not.

I think i quashed that myth earlier but my next set of combats will test just that....

EDIT I take that back!!!! There may be a statistically significant impact but not what i was expecting!!!! 5 test run 5 mor to go...

2nd EDIT --Nope ----MYTH BUSTED.... IMO

[pauk]

I will test supply distribution - as Sneer pointed he had problem with distribution of supply to units...

but i have a spice.... in one of my PBEM games i besiging (sp?) Chita (mother Russia) - my supply lines are via railroad.

I've noticed that half of my troops doesn't have required supply - although in nearest base (Borzya) i have 20K supply...

My command HQs are at Chita - should i send them back to Borzya?

[Sneer]

soon i will have another chungking battle - this time i want to pump supplies by bombardment attacks - currently i have over 100k on hex with troops and buckup in supply depots for similar value so all conditions should be favourable

[Dino]

ORIGINAL: Sneer

soon i will have another chungking battle - this time i want to pump supplies by bombardment attacks

It will be very interesting to see if that works... From what I've seen so far, only distruption causes supplies to be pumped in.

[treespider]

My earlier EDIT comment has proven erroneous...here are the results of test #2. only difference from test #1 was that Japanese supply was now set at 4000. My Earlier erroneous comment that 2x supply may have an impact was generated by the first five tests where I saw three groupings forming for japanese modified Assault Value - One at 92, One around 177 and the other over 200 - then the next five tests kind of killed it for me....although it would be interesting to see the results over 100 tests as opposed to 10...

Code: Select all

Jap	Chin								
 Max	Max								
 AV	AV	J.mAV	CmAV	J Loss	JGL	JVL	C Loss	CGL	X:1
 506	351	202	56	100	3	2	39	2	3
 506	351	98	38	178	2	0	159	5	2
 506	351	183	53	157	5	1	114	5	3
 506	351	171	65	204	7	0	35	2	2
 506	351	205	41	68	2	1	280	14	5
 
 After the first five tests I thought that 2x supply may actually play a role...it might...but then we have the next five tests..
 
 506	351	92	44	222	3	1	257	10	2
 506	351	218	52	95	1	0	233	6	4
 506	351	89	45	160	6	1	112	9	1
 506	351	85	42	166	6	1	127	10	2
 506	351	99	52	78	2	0	174	5	1
 	AVG	144.2	48.8	142.8	3.7	0.7	153	6.8	2.5
 	STDEV	55.94	8.26	53.96	2.11	0.67	84.73	3.85	1.27
 

[Dino]

Excess supply might have impact in the long run... I think that it might not affect a single battle, but it does affect recovery of LCUs, thus making them able to attack more often.

[treespider]

For our next test...Test #3...I set the Japanese to Shock Attack ---is there any advantage? Well that is for you to decide...I'll post my comments about this at the bottom:

Code: Select all

Jap	Chin								
 Max	Max								
 AV	AV	J.mAV	CmAV	J Loss	JGL	JVL	C Loss	CGL	X:1
 1012	351	73	66	509	15	0	25	0	1
 1012	351	272	64	376	13	2	82	5	4
 1012	351	354	61	315	10	1	44	2	5
 1012	351	157	47	404	11	1	104	5	3
 1012	351	354	54	200	2	0	32	3	6
 1012	351	362	48	301	5	2	119	5	7
 1012	351	149	59	306	7	0	9	1	2
 1012	351	190	49	215	3	1	61	2	3
 1012	351	168	58	237	3	2	11	2	2
 1012	351	182	51	174	7	2	237	9	3
 	AVG	226.1	55.7	303.7	7.6	1.1	72.4	3.4	3.6
 	STDEV	102.24	6.86	104.07	4.50	0.88	69.09	2.63	1.90
 

Lets see:
Japan-
J Max AV is now 1012 as opposed to 506 - However mAV only went to 226 from 145.

China -
C Max AV stayed at 351 but mAV went from 41 and 48 up to 55 ...probably statistically significant.

Final Odds -
Because of the chinese increase Final odds really didn't change alll that much only increasing to 3.6 from 3.4 and 2.5.

Casualties -
Japan more than doubled fom 81 and 142 in the previous tests to 303. Also statistically significant were the Japanese Gun losses. China on the other hand actually cut her losses in half!!!

If I'm defending bring on the shock attack, especially if I anticipate retreating anyway.

[mogami]

Hi, Shock attacks cause much more damage when the normal odds would already be good. The closer to 1-1 you are at start the higher the loss for attacker will be (but the shock attack might just get 2-1 against a base with 0 fort levels)

[treespider]

Also posted in my AAR...

March 18, 1942 - Manila

Well my testing has paid off!!! I now realize you can not defeat a force behind level 5 forts in an urban hex.
- It does not matter how many consecutive days you bomb the airfields and ports...
- It does not matter how many consecutive days you bombard them...
- It does not matter how many engineers you bring in ( I had five regiments)...
- It may matter that none of the 15 or so bomber units from 4 seperate airfields that you've assigned to ground attack did not fly...
- It does not matter how good your commanders are...
- Nor does it matter that your units are Prepped to 100...

So long as the defender has enough troops in the hex he will always resist...

So how do you defeat such a force...you sit back and bomb and bombard it into the stone age for a week ...then launch a deliberate attack to kill more troops which will not be replaced....then wash rinse and repeat...for the next two months...and hopefully at some point the defender will be reduced to such a point that you actually cut some barbed wire...

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 164385 troops, 1112 guns, 174 vehicles, Assault Value = 2683

Defending force 61027 troops, 576 guns, 191 vehicles, Assault Value = 1476

Japanese max assault: 2653 - adjusted assault: 1370

Allied max defense: 1406 - adjusted defense: 3345

Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 (fort level 5)


Japanese ground losses:
4015 casualties reported
Guns lost 82
Vehicles lost 12

Allied ground losses:
1572 casualties reported
Guns lost 33

[pauk]

ORIGINAL: treespider

- It may matter that none of the 15 or so bomber units from 4 seperate airfields that you've assigned to ground attack did not fly...

had same problem like you - my bombers simply refuses to fly and attack troops at the Manila. (also posted in my AAR)

[Sneer]

i have forunately blitzed manila so forts were low there
I would day you will finsh in late may -at the best variant

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: Sneer

i have forunately blitzed manila so forts were low there
I would day you will finsh in late may -at the best variant

You are correct. Once I learned (early on in other matches) that there was no advantage and many disadvantages in moving my troops to Bataan, I took the approach to try to hold on to Manila as long as possible in my games. It takes quite a while to get the fortification improved in Manila, so you need to delay the Japanese at a distance (which is where the movement and land combat rules come in handy for a change).

You can see your strategy in effect in the way that Tree took Soerabaja early and easily - usually I can hold onto it until May, but by moving in early before I could build the forts up sufficiently he was able to grab it despite me being able to move my better Dutch troops into it.

But then, since Corrigador is considered part of the Manila hex and not part of the Bataan hex, it does make a little bit of historical "sense" to be able to fight an extended city-battle there.

And anyway, if I don't stop Tree somewhere he will be in San Diego by May... [;)][:D]

Cheers -

Dave Baranyi

[treespider]

ORIGINAL: ADavidB

ORIGINAL: Sneer

i have forunately blitzed manila so forts were low there
I would day you will finsh in late may -at the best variant

You are correct. Once I learned (early on in other matches) that there was no advantage and many disadvantages in moving my troops to Bataan, I took the approach to try to hold on to Manila as long as possible in my games. It takes quite a while to get the fortification improved in Manila, so you need to delay the Japanese at a distance (which is where the movement and land combat rules come in handy for a change).

You can see your strategy in effect in the way that Tree took Soerabaja early and easily - usually I can hold onto it until May, but by moving in early before I could build the forts up sufficiently he was able to grab it despite me being able to move my better Dutch troops into it.

But then, since Corrigador is considered part of the Manila hex and not part of the Bataan hex, it does make a little bit of historical "sense" to be able to fight an extended city-battle there.

And anyway, if I don't stop Tree somewhere he will be in San Diego by May... [;)][:D]

Cheers -

Dave Baranyi

Thanks for giving me so much credit ....[;)]

Actually I'm not upset about the results of the attack. The following days bombardment revealed that I inflicted some serious damage to the defenders that is definitely not being repaired.

Ground combat at Manila

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 5876 troops, 206 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2098

Defending force 58736 troops, 504 guns, 189 vehicles, Assault Value = 1417

Allied ground losses:
18 casualties reported

From looking at this the Assault Value has dropped from 1476 to 1417 a loss of 59 points that did not come back. (Assault Value is a measure of the number of squads available.) In addition the number of guns has significantly been cut from 576 to 504.

In addition because I launched a Deliberate Attack as opposed to a Shock Attack I suffered far fewer casualties. The day after the attack I was in the neighborhood of 75 disruption. The following day I was down near 50. Hopefully the next day I will be near 25. Plus even though I suffered 4000 casaulties my units did not seem to be appreciably affected other than the increase in disruption. I attribute this to my "New" sequence for conducting seige warfare, which will be as follows:

Before initiating the the following cycle bomb the airfields and ports to eliminate supply.

Day 1. Bombard with everyone. Everyone's supply requirement will be raised to 2x. And supply will be shipped to them. Aircraft bomb the airfields and ports.

Day 2. Rest the non-Artillery units. This will cause the required supply to drop now leaving the unit with a substantial surplus. Aircraft bomb the airfields and ports.

Day 3. Attack. Launch a deliberate attack. Hopefully supported by Ground Attacks with Aircraft. For whatever reason mine did not fly this past time.

Day 4. Recover - Continue to bombard with Artillery.

Start at Day 1.


The recovery phase is where the supply surplus in the units makes the difference.

As for places like Chungking or Karachi - They are not part of my strategy when I play the Japanese so I will not have to deal with the base receiving daily supply. However the seiges in China at other bases in the CHS will be much harder and longer to conduct - due to the fact that most bases in China receive daily supply in the CHS.