Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Michael,
Thats my plan. Going divide forces here a bit. 2 IDs plus the Arty, Engineers and Armor are heading for Cagayan while 1 ID stays put to secure the base. I want to destroy that 6th ID.

BB,
Not an option I´m afraid. [:(] He can outrun me since I´m weighed down by the slow speed of the CVEs (4/4). I´m guessing he will head back to Manila to replenish and then come back. By the time he does things will be much different! I might scuttle Unicorn. But I have had a US CVE come back from almost the same condition!Tempted to give it a try! [:)]

[JocMeister]

I was called in at work at 3:30 this morning so things have been a bit hectic and not much sleep. I just had time to take a quick look at the turn, asses the damage and come up with a plan.

This is a rough draft of what I´ll do tomorrow.

I´m going to devote a full day to try and save what can be saved. For this I need the CV CAP. I´ll switch most of the Escort fighters to CAP, fly out most of the TB/DBs and put more fighters on the deck. Thought here is to try and keep any incoming strikes tomorrow at bay. With the losses Erik suffered the last two days he can´t have much in flyable condition left? Right? [X(] I´m going to assume he will go all in on this one forsaking CAP for escorts. So I´m going to try and use the opportunity to close Davao and Cagayan. Cagayan will be dealt with from the air while Davao will receive naval bombardment. Luckily I brought up the BBs to Talud last turn incase the Cotabato assault stalled. Dadjangas lack an AF so that won´t have to be dealt with.

This I hope will kill off the last of his strike capabilities and help get the damaged shipping in under the LBCAP at Talud-Eilanden. Once that is done with I have another ace up my sleeve!

As a small thing that can turn out to be important is the fact that the Cotabato AF is open. Need to think of how to exploit this. I´m contemplating sending in the BFs right away under a 100 P47 CAP. That might draw a crapload of fire though and overwhelm the CAP. With the way unloading works in friendly bases (its stupid..) there is a risk they won´t have unloaded anything when the strikes come in. The ships I can spare. The BFs not so much. It might also ground my 4 best squadrons at the base. I have 2 radars at Cotabato. Thoughts?

[ny59giants]

Why haven't you been keeping the transport with BFs and construction engineers in the same hex as your CVs?? Even your 12 knot xAKs (Liberty Ships) move 6 hexes per day vs CV on mission speed. The CV and warships will only go that max (16 hexes or more) if at Full Speed.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Why haven't you been keeping the transport with BFs and construction engineers in the same hex as your CVs?? Even your 12 knot xAKs (Liberty Ships) move 6 hexes per day vs CV on mission speed. The CV and warships will only go that max (16 hexes or more) if at Full Speed.

Ah, one of the hard parts of writing a AAR. I tend to forget mentioning important stuff! [:D]

The BFs are indeed with the CVs. They are loaded aboard APAs/AKAs. I don´t feel I can afford to divert CV CAP to cover both the retreating cripples, the CVs themselves and unloading operations at Cotabato. Hence the question if its worth flying in P47s Cotabato.

Right now I´m leaning toward yes. With the strike routine being what it is its highly likely that whatever comes for us goes for the CVs/CVEs and not the transports.

[ny59giants]

Fly in your fighters today and unload the BFs tomorrow to give them Aviation Support. They will fly without it, but not for long.

[JocMeister]

Turn is sent to Erik. Don´t think I´ll get the replay back today. I´ll be heading to bed shortly anyway. I did more or less as I planned in post #1342. Had to scrap the Cagayan AF hit though. My B24s took quite a beating last turn and I had to stand them down.

Sent the BFs in under a 50 plane P47 CAP backup up by 50 Spit VIIs. Transferred in almost 200 additional fighters to the CV fleet. Every available fighter is on CAP duty. I would be really nice to get at least the Bunker Hill back to safety. She can only do 7 knots though so it will be a slow journey. Started loading more troops/BFs for Mindanao. Running REALLY short on everything right now.

Fingers crossed!

[JocMeister]

On page 13(!) in this AAR the following can be found in post #374

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[center]2nd objective[/center]

Land forces on Mindanao.
This might be the most optimistic goal of them all. It will require that the Moluccas are secured no later then September/October. I really need to secure PM fast in order to get moving. Rabaul will be bypassed if needed to buy time.

I actually did it didn´t I?! Not only did I do it but I did it with 5 months to spare! When I wrote that I was quite depressed with my situation. I had been stuck at PM for quite some time before it finally fell on the 18th of November. And now I´m on Mindanao. [X(] I´m actually very proud of my NG campaign. Admittedly I did have quite a lot of luck occasionally but all good commanders do right? [;)]

Looking at the map I´m quite astonished of the distance I traversed in only 8 months. This without any CV support at all and at least initially without much of a navy.

If I ever get some spare time I´ll try and make a timeline and compare losses.

But tonight I´ll go to sleep with that wonderful feeling of accomplishment regardless of what happens the next turn. [:)]

[Encircled]

And all that with a new baby as well

Congratulations on turning this one around

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

And all that with a new baby as well

Congratulations on turning this one around

+1 - you have mastered the many nuances of this game in a short time.
But ... don't challenge Nemo just yet!

[JocMeister]

21st August -44

A very good day for the allies overall. No cripples lost. Hitting Davao was a big Jackpot! [&o]

Night Naval bombardment of Davao at 79,91

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
H8K2 Emily: 43 damaged
H8K2 Emily: 6 destroyed on ground
J2M3 Jack: 31 damaged
J2M3 Jack: 2 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 134 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 15 destroyed on ground
D4Y4 Judy: 9 damaged
D4Y4 Judy: 3 destroyed on ground
N1K2-J George: 56 damaged
N1K2-J George: 7 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
BB Queen Elizabeth
BB Valiant
BB Mississippi
BB Idaho
BC Renown
DD Crane
DD Kennison
DD Nepal
DD Stuart
DD Worden
DD Farragut
DD Downes

Japanese ground losses:
441 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Airbase hits 32
Airbase supply hits 13
Runway hits 78

Night Naval bombardment of Davao at 79,91

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 15 damaged
N1K2-J George: 5 destroyed on ground
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 61 damaged
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 6 destroyed on ground
D4Y4 Judy: 12 damaged
D4Y4 Judy: 1 destroyed on ground
H8K2 Emily: 10 damaged
H8K2 Emily: 1 destroyed on ground
J2M3 Jack: 40 damaged
J2M3 Jack: 6 destroyed on ground

Allied Ships
BB California
BB Arizona
BB Nevada
BB Maryland
DD Stevens
DD Stembel
DD Sproston
DD Sigsbee
DD Sigourney
DD Norman Scott
DD John Rodgers
DD Remey

Japanese ground losses:
476 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 23 destroyed, 28 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Manpower hits 1
Fires 80
Airbase hits 19
Runway hits 78

Boom! [:D]

AF is of course closed after this. I´m guessing that was meant to escort his strikes during the day. Without escorts his bombers didn´t seem keen on flying! Only one strike flew during the entire day and it went for the transports at Cotabato.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Cotabato at 78,90

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 24
N1K2-J George x 35

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 24
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 27

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 5 destroyed, 2 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed by flak
N1K2-J George: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Birmingham
CA Vincennes
APA Winged Arrow

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

Only about 50% of the troops have unloaded and I need supply so I decided to keep the transports. I don´t know how Erik will react to the CAP here. He might try a sweep or two. I didn´t dare set the CAP up high incase he went in low with his strikes. So if he sweeps tomorrow I hope my CAP have time to climb up to his sweeps.

Crippled transports reached the safety of Talud CAP and onwards to Morotai and then Sydney. My crippled CVs/CVL/CVEs made 3 hexes during the turn and barring a massive, massive Japanese effort they should be safe. I have 300 planes on LRCAP from Talud. CV Fleet is otherwised engaged...at...

Jolo
Assault ships make a dash for the level 5 AF. I´m going in almost blind here. I reconned the base 12 days ago but havn´t dared to do it more since I really don´t want him reinforcing the base. I´m going in quite light with only 300ish AV. Last peek said 2 units there. If its something big like a RGT I´m toast. Fingers crossed. I set only a small LRCAP from the CVs to cover the fleet. This is a bit of a gamble. But I´m hoping to catch Erik off guard with this dash. By the looks of it with only one strike today Erik has really shot his LBA.

CV situation
I have about 3 CVs and 10 CVEs roughly 2 weeks out. By then most of what was hit in the Battle of Celebes sea should be repaired. 1 CV, 1 CVL and 7 CVEs to be exact. 1 CVL and 4 CVEs will need longer yard time. I also have Hancock, Ticonderoga and Yggdrasil in the pipeline. Should arrive in about 2 months. By then I hope everything hit yesterday will have finished up repairs. Not counting Bunker Hill here obviously. With 44/37/22 she will be gone for a long time. I´m scheduling the PH yard for her. Guessing about 3-5 months of repair time.

Elsewhere
With the Mindanao and Jolo invasions over with I finally can stand down my CVs for some RR. Assault ships will get no rest though. We have a long string of invasions lined up. First assignment is to clear Manado. Then its the DEI landings. But I´ll keep enough lift around Moluccas to move 1 division plus some more.

Here is a screen of the situation!

[BBfanboy]

Congrats on the Davao bombardment - you really laid it on with 6 BB/BC. Can you follow up with CAs and/or HBs tomorrow?

You didn't highlight the damaged Emilys, but they are probably his key air transport plane in the area. I bet you have crippled his ability to reinforce by air. At service rating 3, they should be out of action for some time. This is critical because they do not depend on the airfield for their operations.

I really like your choice of Jolo for the next target. It should help seal that entire strait between Mindanao and Borneo. Great flank position for you.

Not too sure how many IJA squads your tanks will get in jungle terrain. My guess is that you will get 10% of them destroyed and the rest will run away to the next hex. Can't really run over them with all those trees in the way.

[witpqs]

Just a quiet note of caution here, while the bombardments were quite good, I have learned that the aircraft casualty listings for naval bombardments are sometimes massively overstated. So the ones that show that many, I would only believe if the opponent verified it.

[BBfanboy]

Good to know witpqs - thanks!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Congrats on the Davao bombardment - you really laid it on with 6 BB/BC. Can you follow up with CAs and/or HBs tomorrow?

You didn't highlight the damaged Emilys, but they are probably his key air transport plane in the area. I bet you have crippled his ability to reinforce by air. At service rating 3, they should be out of action for some time. This is critical because they do not depend on the airfield for their operations.

I really like your choice of Jolo for the next target. It should help seal that entire strait between Mindanao and Borneo. Great flank position for you.

Not too sure how many IJA squads your tanks will get in jungle terrain. My guess is that you will get 10% of them destroyed and the rest will run away to the next hex. Can't really run over them with all those trees in the way.

I also felt Jolo was a great base. Not sure I´ll be able to grab it though. Although Erik only had 80 AV at the base my 300 AV landed with heavy losses due to insufficient prep (60-75). Not sure how to handle this one yet. Disruption is low but fatigue is in the mid 20s. I´m considering trying tomorrow anyway. If I can throw some bombers in it might work anyway. Might only get one shot at quickly grabbing it.

Your guess was a little bit off! [:D]

Ground combat at 78,89 (near Cagayan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1350 troops, 0 guns, 210 vehicles, Assault Value = 113

Defending force 2924 troops, 52 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 22

Allied adjusted assault: 78

Japanese adjusted defense: 13

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
969 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 78 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 16 (13 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st USMC Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn

Defending units:
64th Ind.Mixed Brigade
III/81st Naval Guard Unit
216th Naval Construction Battalion
4th RF Gun Battalion
180th JAAF AF Bn

A pretty good haul! [:)] But I´m curious to where the 6th ID went? Surely it cannot have moved faster than my tanks?

[BBfanboy]

Mid 20s fatigue is not high enough to preclude an attack if the enemy has also been hit with bombs or bombardment.
If you don't know the fort level, do not Shock Attack. Use a Deliberate Attack and your fatigue should not rise too much more [some of the landing fatigue will be fixed at the same time]. After that you can assess what he has and how badly off your troops are.

Glad I was wrong about the tanks in the jungle hex. 30% is much better than 10%!
The fools must have stayed on the road where the tanks could get at them.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Congrats on the Davao bombardment - you really laid it on with 6 BB/BC. Can you follow up with CAs and/or HBs tomorrow?

You didn't highlight the damaged Emilys, but they are probably his key air transport plane in the area. I bet you have crippled his ability to reinforce by air. At service rating 3, they should be out of action for some time. This is critical because they do not depend on the airfield for their operations.

I really like your choice of Jolo for the next target. It should help seal that entire strait between Mindanao and Borneo. Great flank position for you.

Not too sure how many IJA squads your tanks will get in jungle terrain. My guess is that you will get 10% of them destroyed and the rest will run away to the next hex. Can't really run over them with all those trees in the way.

I also felt Jolo was a great base. Not sure I´ll be able to grab it though. Although Erik only had 80 AV at the base my 300 AV landed with heavy losses due to insufficient prep (60-75). Not sure how to handle this one yet. Disruption is low but fatigue is in the mid 20s. I´m considering trying tomorrow anyway. If I can throw some bombers in it might work anyway. Might only get one shot at quickly grabbing it.

Your guess was a little bit off! [:D]

Ground combat at 78,89 (near Cagayan)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 1350 troops, 0 guns, 210 vehicles, Assault Value = 113

Defending force 2924 troops, 52 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 22

Allied adjusted assault: 78

Japanese adjusted defense: 13

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
969 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 78 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 16 (13 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 4

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st USMC Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn

Defending units:
64th Ind.Mixed Brigade
III/81st Naval Guard Unit
216th Naval Construction Battalion
4th RF Gun Battalion
180th JAAF AF Bn

A pretty good haul! [:)] But I´m curious to where the 6th ID went? Surely it cannot have moved faster than my tanks?

Not sure what your game date is. When you noticed the 6th ID it was something like August 20 [no date on that screen either]. If the 6th ID had higher morale than the other units, it could have marched into the next hex before your tanks arrived, while the lower morale units did not move far enough.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Mid 20s fatigue is not high enough to preclude an attack if the enemy has also been hit with bombs or bombardment.
If you don't know the fort level, do not Shock Attack. Use a Deliberate Attack and your fatigue should not rise too much more [some of the landing fatigue will be fixed at the same time]. After that you can assess what he has and how badly off your troops are.

Glad I was wrong about the tanks in the jungle hex. 30% is much better than 10%!
The fools must have stayed on the road where the tanks could get at them.

No clue about the forts! If its higher than 3-4 I´m pretty much doomed anyway. I agree with your assessment. I´ll try to pour some nasty things at Eriks forces there and try a deliberate attack next turn. If it fails I´ll start prepping more forces and do it the slow way.

As a backup plan I also have forces prepped for all the other bases in the island chain. I have really excellent NZ BDE prepped 100% for Tawi Tawi!

I havn´t checked but I hope the 4Es might have recovered enough to have a go at it. No naval bombardment in range though. [:(] But I also have the bombers in the CV fleet... Perhaps set them with a secondary mission of ground attacking Jolo? Doesn´t look like Erik has much if any flak present (only 7 guns at the base). So it should be fairly safe.

[JocMeister]

No turn today as I had to study tonight. Another exam tomorrow. Three phase engines and the control systems for them. [>:]

[JocMeister]

22nd August -44

Celebes sea
Landings go in unopposed at Jolo but troops suffered quite some disruption and fatigue. Following BBs advice I went ahead with an attack tomorrow anyway. All bases in the vicinity is filled up with bombers set to strike the troops at Jolo. The strike AC on the CVs are also set to ground attack Jolo as a secondary mission. Fingers crossed for tomorrow. Otherwise I´ll land with more troops.

The cripples are almost safe. None sunk so far! [:)]

Burma
Looks like Erik has started pulling more troops from the biggest stack just N of Rangoon. Drat! I also made the decision here to pull out two FGs (150 Fighters) and 3 USMC squadrons. Erik only has 300-400 fighters left in the area and I´m firmly in control in the air. These will travel on fast xAKs (17 knot) to OZ and then fly on to Mindanao.

Reinforcements
Passing Eniwetok

Here comes the cavalry! [:D]

[JocMeister]

Jolo

Aaaargh! So close!

Ground combat at Jolo (74,90)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 9091 troops, 181 guns, 173 vehicles, Assault Value = 326

Defending force 3298 troops, 18 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 88

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Allied adjusted assault: 192

Japanese adjusted defense: 87

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
391 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 55 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
205 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 29 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled

Assaulting units:
147th(Sep) Infantry Regiment
131st Combat Engineer Regiment
112th Cavalry Regiment
30th Australian Brigade
131st Field Artillery Battalion
109th Tank Attack Regiment

Defending units:
25th Ind.Mixed Regiment
48th JAAF AF Bn

Question:
Do I dare to expose the CVs yet another day and hang around? Or do I retire and risk Erik flying in reinforcements? He didn´t try to this turn?