Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

ORIGINAL: Anachro

It happened...again.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Trincomalee at 34,53, Range 29,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Choko Maru #2
xAK Kinsyo Maru
xAP Hakone Maru

Allied Ships
DD Gwin
DD Monssen
DD Pakenham
DD Panther
DD Redoubt

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
Range closes to 27,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 27,000 yards
Japanese TF attempts to evade combat
Range increases to 28,000 yards...
Range increases to 29,000 yards...
Range increases to 29,000 yards...
Japanese Escort TF evades combat

Japanese spotted allies... Japanese ships ran. The allied ships never saw them.

I might propose a different algorithm. I have only played this game 4 times, and only once to a conclusion. One thing is that this is a WEGO game. Therefore, one issue that must be coded for is a small force happens by chance to engage a large force. I assume there are GG die rolls .. but my observations are that there is a test for the smaller force not to engage and close the distance with a much larger force. I have no idea if the calculations are tonnage or number of guns, or ???? but the software makes some calculation and the smaller force simply does not engage. I have experienced this often enough to decide that raiding forces have to be large enough to engage the enemy. Even if there are only merchants. I have found a single larger platform (CA) to be a difference maker, but that could be coincidental to some unknown die roll.

The fact that this occurred twice with an aggressive naval leader, and my own experience at this game .. I am thinking very pimply there were too many ships to engage. Even if these ships were mostly merchants.

[Canoerebel]

I doubt that's the case. We've all seen too many instances of one- or two-DD TFs tearing into massed merchantmen, wreaking havoc.

There's a chance that John's TF is commanded by a high-experienced, low aggression officer that has the smarts to keep a good watch, react appropriately, and skedaddle.

[RangerJoe]

Yes, the DDs get into a large group of merchantmen and like Chesty Puller said, they can't get away from us now. But they have to see them first and not get into the torpedo juice mixed with pineapple . . .

[Anachro]

What's funny is that it happens multiple times in a row, turn after turn. For instance, the TF a few posts back with 1xPB 1xAP and 1xAK or w/e (damaged by the way with the ships smoking) evaded once, and then the next two turns my DDs ran into it again without any combat. Strange stuff. This also happened in the following turns trying to get the convoy headed for Hollandia.

[RangerJoe]

Blame the torpedo juice mixed with pineapple . . .

[Anachro]

I should note that DD Shiratsuyu sank in a run in with Fletchers off Lae, as well as another Kagero-class DD (either DD Arashi or DD Oyashio). Shiratsuyu is one of my favorite DDs and the Kagero's are front-line Japanese DDs.


Shiratsuyu-class DD

[RangerJoe]

Those are nice ships.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I doubt that's the case. We've all seen too many instances of one- or two-DD TFs tearing into massed merchantmen, wreaking havoc.

There's a chance that John's TF is commanded by a high-experienced, low aggression officer that has the smarts to keep a good watch, react appropriately, and skedaddle.

One question I have is .. how many escorts and the ratio of escorts to attacking ships?

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

What's funny is that it happens multiple times in a row, turn after turn. For instance, the TF a few posts back with 1xPB 1xAP and 1xAK or w/e (damaged by the way with the ships smoking) evaded once, and then the next two turns my DDs ran into it again without any combat. Strange stuff. This also happened in the following turns trying to get the convoy headed for Hollandia.

Do you have air groups flying naval Search in this area? I think a large part of this is detection levels. If the Japanese have AC that spot your TF then my WAG is that it increases John's TFs ability to avoid.

The DL thing is pretty well explained in the manual and I believe that this is the main check, followed by EXP, Commander Aggressiveness, and TF settings to route safer or run at first blush (as Canoerebel alluded in a post up above).

[Anachro]

In the case cited above, I had DL of some sort on the enemy ships (heck, I also ended a turn in the same hex with no action), but it was at open sea far away from LBA except for some of my deep patrol craft. They had no DL on my ships at all.

[Anachro]

June 4th, 1943

The armada sets out (well, the transports moved a day previous but were joined by surface vessels and carriers today) for its targets for amphibious landings. This is a bit of a risk as they aren't fully prepared, but nor do I expect John's defense to be. Jphn has some DL on them, but I have begun sweeping Horn as well as setting my initial route that direction to make him think I'm going up towards Horn and Merauke. This next turn will see me move west and go around Milne Bay.

I should note that John tried something devious. I had noticed over the past 5 or so turns that John had started to to deep recons of bases like Townsville and, knowing he can deep strike with his Liz's, I got smart and quickly put fighters in CAP mod at Townsville, where I have a large number of ships. Seeing the fighters, he never attempted this. Last turn, he randomly recon'd a nearby base, Bowen, with good DL and no doubt saw I had my carriers and other ships parked there without fighters. Assuming he might launch a strike (and also leaving anyways to join the transports), I had all my carriers and other vessels leave port. The result was all that John's Liz's only found an AM in port and a lot of flak.

Elsewhere, my sub gets a nice target on CA Nachi moving west in the DEI, but of course it fails to hit it. A DD also runs into transports off Madang and does minimal damage.

[Anachro]

In India, we attack and take Jaffna and should destroy his forces next turn there, or seriously degrade them. Forts at Koggala are reduced, but the Canadian militia takes high casualties (they havent upgraded to better squads yet). BB Warspite is out and about and John's recon seems to be lacking/

[BBfanboy]

Nice work on reading John's plan to attack with Liz's. He probably lost some good pilots there.

BTW, your transports are already WSW of Milne Bay, so they will have to move east if they want to go around Milne Bay ...

[Anachro]

Haha, yes, I meant to type east there! Next turn is in, but nothing happens. CAP kills Japanese nav search over my transports. Tomorrow, paratroopers will land at Torokina just north of Buna, as well as Hansa Bay, a few hexes north of Madang.

In Ceylon, forts at Koggala are reduced to 1 with Japanese troops suffering more casualties. BB Warspite is approaching Diego Garcia to see what's there. A couple of DDs seem to be parked at Addu, conducting either fast transport missions or something similar - I will meet them with some DDs set to flank speed from Colombo.

EDIT

I have begun putting some subs back to harass Japanese supply lines. A tanker was hit a few turns ago with fuel heading to Truk (sinking sounds). This past turn or two turns ago, another tanker was hit north of Palembang (sinking sounds also heard). In addition to this, some xAKs have started taking torps.

Submarine attack near Lingga at 52,88

Japanese Ships
TK Ogura Maru #2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS L'Espoir

TK Ogura Maru #2 is sighted by SS L'Espoir
SS L'Espoir launches 4 torpedoes at TK Ogura Maru #2

[Anachro]

June 6th, 1943

Interesting stuff. First John sends a CL/DD TF down to Buna that doesn't hit anything, and only takes 1 or 2 bombs from LBA DB's (I have my carriers in defensive mode at the moment. This is followed by a lot of Japanese surface ships (and even CVLs and CVE - looks like a mini KB) appearing at Horn Island, either to put more troops on the island or extract troops. In the process a Japanese CVL and CVE take a mine. I conduct a number of sweeps that do okay over Horn Island, but not well enough to knock down the CAP there. John's fighters hurt my heavy bombers.

This doesn't look like a huge amount of carrier power based on the CAP over Horn, but they could hit my transports in the rear of my carriers in the Coral Sea area. For now, I am converging on Lae and Madang with LRCAP helping. Meanwhile, lots of PTs are once again headed for Horn Island. Maybe I can get lucky and sink a CVL with a PT torpedo. At Buna, John attempted to place another division (The China Assault division), but based on combat there, it doesn't look like they'll stop the 1st Marine division from taking the place.

The Buin/Torokina forces should make landings tomorrow. Tokorina and Hansa Bay were taken by air assault today. Landings will also happen at Lae (a surface force will be broken off in an attempt to destroy John's CL/DDs at Buna). I wonder if I should land forces without full prep at Madang or instead land them at Hansa and move down.

Elsewhere, subs sink 2-3 xAKs.



Is another large extended month-long battle coming?

[Anachro]

In India, we take Koggala and wipe out the forces at Jaffna. Unfortunately, our BB force gets spotted and will skedaddle back to Bombay under flank speed to get in range of LRCAP. Also, the enemy surface force at Addu is bigger than expected, but our 3 DDs will try their luck.

[Anachro]

My intelligence guys are always so optimistic. Just yesterday I was told CB Okuhotaka was still operational. Today they tell me it's dead again, but the location is usual a good indication of where it presently is. CVL Aso no doubt did NOT sink from one mine.

[Anachro]

June 7th, 1943

Part of KB makes its appearance. John gets into my CVEs covering landings at Torokina; and while they break through the ~60 or so fighters providing CAP, I lose only one CVE for the day (as well as some transports off of Port Moresby in Surface action). John loses a DD to a PT torpedo, as well as numerous bombers from LBA positions. Fun stuff! This doesn't seriously hamper me, if a bit annoying. We will move east to cover Buin and then up towards Kavieng and then over.

All in all, could've been worse. Should have simply had everything go one route from the beginning.

[Panther Bait]

Those look like some hefty carrier aircraft losses. 175ish total, including 140 DB/TB.

Mike

[Canoerebel]

Did you lose just one CVE? I'd have expected all three to go under, with that amount of damage. Only Suwannee seemed to have even the slightest chance of survival.