Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

[janh]

ORIGINAL: 76mm
I think if the 1:1 rule is gone, the Sovs should suffer the same casualties as the Germans.

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the 1:1 still in place until March 42?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: 76mm
I think if the 1:1 rule is gone, the Sovs should suffer the same casualties as the Germans.

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't the 1:1 still in place until March 42?

I think 76mm is referring to his game against Ketza.

[76mm]

BG,

1) I have no idea about the attacker retreat numbers, I will try to look next time I suffer the 10x losses. Do the Germans suffer this kind of loss when they attack and lose?

2) I had no idea about the Axis 1:1 fort reduction bonus, and have a hard time understanding the rationale for it, is a counterpart to the (now eliminated) Sov attack 1:1 bonus? Has this always been in the game, or was it introduced recently? Given the changes to the fort rules, I think it is pretty important to get rid of this bonus, maybe it's time for me to start a "flying pig rule" crusade?

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: 76mm
Speaking of losses, I assumed that when the devs got rid of the 1:1 rule, they would also get rid of the punishing Sov casualties when they lose. This does not seem to be the case, however, and i regularly see losses of 10x or more if my attacks fail. I think if the 1:1 rule is gone, the Sovs should suffer the same casualties as the Germans.

That bonus does go away, along with the 1:1 rule, in March of 1942 as of 1.05.

Regards,

- Erik

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: 76mm
1) I have no idea about the attacker retreat numbers, I will try to look next time I suffer the 10x losses. Do the Germans suffer this kind of loss when they attack and lose?

Yes, they do. But they tend to suffer less from that because of the higher quality (morale, experience) of their units. My blind guess is that those huge loss numbers happen when you attack across river lines and that the great majority of them are damaged ground elements, rather than destroyed.

ORIGINAL: 76mm
2) I had no idea about the Axis 1:1 fort reduction bonus, and have a hard time understanding the rationale for it, is a counterpart to the (now eliminated) Sov attack 1:1 bonus? Has this always been in the game, or was it introduced recently? Given the changes to the fort rules, I think it is pretty important to get rid of this bonus, maybe it's time for me to start a "flying pig rule" crusade?

Hahaha, no need for that I think [:)] You're certainly no alone in having a hard time to find a rationale for it. And yes, it's been with us since WitE 1.00.

[Erik Rutins]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
But for all of that I remain disatisfied with certain aspects of this patch and think there's room for improvement.

I certainly agree on that.

I disagree that the German needs to greatly reinforce AGN to take Leningrad. (I had thought this was the case, but it's not.)

I think against a very skilled German player, it may not be possible to hold Leningrad. Against most players, I think AGN needs to be reinforced to make it possible if the Soviet player is good at setting up defenses. Historically the Germans also made some poor decisions in AGN that made it harder for them to succeed in taking Leningrad. I think any reinforcement of AGN, even one additional Corps from the starting forces or a ton of artillery and pioneer SUs and many APs spent on improving leaders, makes it much more likely that Leningrad will fall even if the German player is not playing at a very high level.

The main question for the Soviet player is what to defend though. If the Axis player makes Leningrad a priority, it will almost certainly fall. If he does not and the Soviet player does, I think it can be defended, but that may leave the South or Moscow more weakly defended. I think that how the Axis player uses the strategic initiative to direct and misdirect the Soviet defense can also play a big role in whether the door to Leningrad is wide open or mostly shut.

It's mostly a matter of organization, having the right leaders and SUs. PG4 can actually do the job. So long as Leningrad gets pocketed, it will fall if you've set up things correctly, period. You cannot prevent crossing the Neva -- and once across the Neva, then it is over, basically. Even a level 3 fort with a good army and reserves won't hold the Germans off forever at the backdoor.

That's still a commitment for the Axis player. He could be using those SUs and those APs to reinforce the drive on Moscow or in the South. If the Axis commits to Leningrad, I think it's very hard to hold, but I think you can hold out long enough that it requires a full commitment right up until Mud/Snow, which means those forces are not going after you elsewhere.

FWIW, I agree there's room for improvement, I just want to see more progress in 1.05 games to get a better sense of the balance.

Regards,

- Erik

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: 76mm

BG,

1) I have no idea about the attacker retreat numbers, I will try to look next time I suffer the 10x losses. Do the Germans suffer this kind of loss when they attack and lose?

No they do not. Their offensive losses are trivial now and will remain so until Soviet morale picks up in 1943 and on.

In 1941 they might lose 1500ish men on a big attack that results in a hold. (The Soviets will lose practically an equal amount of men on the defense, not to mention fort levels.)

[Joel Billings]

We'll have to look into it, but the only reason the Soviets didn't reduce forts when they got 1 to 1 but were held was because under the old rules this would never happen. A Soviet 1 to 1 would result in a win. In March 42 when this no longer happens, I'd guess that the Soviets will be reducing forts when they get a 1 to 1 just like the Germans do.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings
In March 42 when this no longer happens, I'd guess that the Soviets will be reducing forts when they get a 1 to 1 just like the Germans do.

I don't think this is right. I don't play German, but as stated previously, in my experience the Sovs rarely reduce German forts if they do not win the combat, even with massive engineer and arty support (my guestimate is 1 out of 3 or 4 unsuccessful attacks). On the other hand, my forts to melt away every time he attacks. You can play around with my server game with Ketza if you want some practice on this.

[sveint]

Just to confirm that Soviet non-winning attacks CAN reduce forts. Had it happen to me several times with the lastest patch.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: sveint
Just to confirm that Soviet non-winning attacks CAN reduce forts. Had it happen to me several times with the lastest patch.

I've already said that it CAN happen, but in practice it only happens rarely.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings
We'll have to look into it, but the only reason the Soviets didn't reduce forts when they got 1 to 1 but were held was because under the old rules this would never happen. A Soviet 1 to 1 would result in a win. In March 42 when this no longer happens, I'd guess that the Soviets will be reducing forts when they get a 1 to 1 just like the Germans do.

That's something that should have gone into the Patch notes, and certainly into the "living" WitE rules [:)]

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 16 – 2 October 1941

A relatively boring turn. Q-Ball has cleared Leningrad, and a substantial part of the German Army seems to be settling on their winter quarters. Q-Ball decided not to assault Voronezh, nor on Moscow defenses left flank. He's limited to put some pressure on the Rzhev – Moscow axis and to inflict some grief on the hapless Southern Front. The number of engagements this turn has been similar to the past one, just a little above forty. Axis success ratio is also similar, about 70%. The intensity of the air war has declined sharply, as it seems to me the Luftwaffe is already badly depleted.

Operational Situation Report

In the far north, the Finns have decided not to press the issue too much. I'll be removing 31st Army by rail this turn and take it to the Tula – Kolomna axis, a sector I need badly to reinforce. While I think this theater is going to become a sideshow for at least one or two years, I cannot just strip it naked. Those Finns pack some punch, and the last thing I need is to allow the Axis armies to inflict a heavy blow on the Red Army with little effort.

I don't understand why Q-Ball hasn't hit my forces northeast of Tula. They aren't really strong, and getting a bulge there would be very valuable for a hypothetical assault on Moscow:

[center][/center]

Actually the Panzers have withdrawn from my left flank, just 3. PzGruppe keeps contact with my troops southwest of Kalinin. He's brought SS Totenkopf right on the center of my defenses. That unit seems to be full to the gills with SU's and some very low DL motorized stacks are to its west. That might be a pointer that Q-Ball thinks it's feasible to do a frontal assault on Moscow.

I don't understand either why he hasn't attacked Voronezh either. He's just detached one PzKorps to support a substantial infantry force pressing in the direction of Rossoh – Boguchar

[center][/center]

I really wanted to keep that position on the Tikhnaya Sosna river, but he's just denied it to me. Those motorized divisions are in very good shape, and I think I need to withrdraw to the east. What I think it's exactly what he wanted me to do. It's interesting to see that 2. PzGruppe seems to have adopted a defensive posture, building up forts in the vicinity of Fortified Regions. I guess this area might be a bit of a black hole for Axis logistics, but still I'm surprised.

1st PzGruppe beats the stuffing out of the Southern Front armies on the Don Bend for the third consecutive turn

[center][/center]

I was also expecting here something more decisive, like a full-out assault on Rostov. He's still got one turn for that. Either his panzers' mobility is greatly diminished or I'm missing something obvious in the picture.

Axis dispositions on the Crime haven't changed one inch. I think he's too thin there, even with 51st Army bottled up around Sevastopol. I'm actually expecting him to hit me hard here after mud, otherwise he's giving me too many options come winter.

Industry Evacuation

Axis conquests effect on Soviet Unit railroad network is becoming rapidly apparent. I'm down to 76,000 railcap points, nearly half as much as I had eight turns ago. On the other hand, the only strategic facility left in the Danger Zone are 3 Vehicle factory points in Moscow, which get moved immediately. I'll use the rest for troop transport – there's some movement to be done – and the remainder will be used to get out some HI points.

Logistics & Organization

Still keeping an eye on production numbers. I'm becoming convinced that Logistics Reports numbers on production are bogus. It claims factories have produced 711 ground elements, but comparing the built statistics from the Production screen, I find that actually, more than twice that number have been actually produced.

On the other hand, Red Army strength levels are getting show a mostly green, with a slight orange hue light. Replacements are arriving where I want them – Rifle formations – and Tank Brigades are coming along nicely. This turn I will allow six Tank Brigades to enjoy the Refit status simultaneously. Lend Lease tanks and the new models under production – the T-60 light tanks – need to be put to work quick, even if their combat value is debatable. Better to have them on the field than on the pool.

Operations

Northern and Northwestern Front retreat, allowing the 31st Army to go to Moscow

[center][/center]

I think I'll have to retreat further east north of Vishny Volochek, there's quite a few German infantry there. The right flank is thinly held by 7th Army, I need to eventually reinforce this zone and shorten the frontage of this unit.

Moscow southern flank is reinforced with some Rifle Divisions coming from the East, and two new Armies, 31st just arrived from Tikhvin and 3rd, which is forming up around Ryazan:

[center][/center]

More divisions are on its way to this sector, which has me deeply worried.

I take up the challenge posed by that PzKorps south of Voronezh

[center][/center]

5th Army is strenghtened while the 26th Army to the north, slightly falls back since it had its left flank badly exposed. 5th Army is reinforced with two Rifle Divisions and a Tank Brigade. Battle is joined if Q-Ball wants.

Southern Front's five Armies – from north to south, 16th, 38th, 32nd, 9th and 29th – prepare for the last week of Barbarossa:

[center][/center]

I could have retreat more, but I think it's out of the question. I want to keep a foothold on the Donets basin, no matter the cost.

Not much more to tell, this turn. There were a couple German infantry divisions who could have got hurt counterattacking, but I feel I have to be prudent, and preserve the little strength my units have gained in the past two turns for the battles ahead. I'm also wary because of the change in demeanor in Q-Ball's attacks. This might be just that he's getting ready for Winter, or that he wants to spring up some nasty surprise before Mud. Let's just wait and see.

Heliodorus04 asked me about the spreadsheet – it seems I managed to overwrite it with some wonky format amongst those supported by OpenOffice. Those interested can check a Microsoft Excel compatible version on this link:

[center]AAR Spreadsheet[/center]

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 17 – 9 October 1941

Last turn before mud hits. Q-Ball has keep it quiet mostly everywhere but in the Don Bend, where 1. PzGruppe has had some “fun” with Southern Front. There have been 28 battles, all won by the Axis but three. Q-Ball has seldom done any hasty attacks, and this shows on the statistic.

Operational Situation Report

My suspicions about Q-Ball preparing something “big” before the rasputitsa hits the Russian battlefields have remained that, mere suspicions. Looking back at the last four turns, it looks to me that Q-Ball is really worried about preparing for winter, and his moves, included the ones this turn, make the most sense under this premise.

All quiet in the eastern front, but in the Rostov – Voroshilovgrad sector, where the 1. PzGruppe has said goodbye to summer with one last dance

[center][/center]

The griefing the Southern Front has been subjected to the last four turns has continued. Q-Ball motorized formations in the area have crushed 32nd Army completely, routing all but two of its divisions. This gives me a headache about what to do with the gaping hole this operation has left in my lines.

Seems that my concerns about the Axis position in the Crimean peninsula were shared by Q-Ball as well

[center][/center]

and I find to my surprise that he has abandoned Kerch and took defensive positions west of Ak-Manay. He was right to be concerned about being too exposed here. But he's still exposed, with 51st Army growing stronger each day. I've pretty much decided to try something in the Crimea in December, the hardest part will be to allocate enough forces for the operation.

It's time to take a look at what I think will the Axis “winter quarters”:

[center][/center]

the disposition of Fortified Regions along the frontline is quite telling. He's certainly looking forward to have a buffer of 3 or 4 hexes before I reach his frontline south of Tula, which is I think it's a good plan and makes things difficult for me. North of Tula he's much thicker and the terrain is much better for defense, so it makes sense to try at a close defense. He's also in striking range of Moscow, in case he does find some possibility of defeating the defense I'm still laying around it.

December might be very boring, and that's very good for the Axis.

Logistics & Organization

The next few turns I'll be very busy organizing the winter counteroffensives.

It seems that the quite radical policies I enacted in the Human Resources Bureau of the Red Army are coming to fruit. The goal, to have the most Rifle formations as well equipped as possible has been achieved. Just under 3% of a total of over 300 formations have their TOE's with a “red” light, that is, under 50%. Armaments production has lowered by 3,000 points this turn, and now I've realized it's really hard to get a surplus with Armaments points, because ground element production is based on “demand” by combat and support units. Once I spend it all, it's hard that I'll get any surplus at all

The most important issue to think about is to get my forces organized for winter. I've suffered a lot of losses, and a full front offensive is out of the question. Although this works quite well, especially when you've plenty of troops and equipment to spare, I've always favored a more “focused” approach, restricting my assaults to “narrow” frontages – narrow as in no more than 80 miles wide – and with supporting, local offensives on the flanks of the axis where I was doing the main effort. In this game, my usual approach to 1941 winter is not an option, but an obligation.

The plan is still unclear – I've got to make up my mind where to strike exactly yet – but the main concept lies in structuring my offensives on the Shock Armies – surprise, surprise. Not only because of their Morale bonus, which comes in handy in a Morale starved Red Army, but because they're quite useful as an administrative “focal point”. Becomes easier to manage allotted SU's, leaders, TOE settings and the like. Regarding their composition it's also quite clear for me.

I will aim at a “core” formation of six Rifle Divisions – handpicked amongst the ones with the higher experience level -, a Cavalry Corps and two or three Tank Brigades, the latter being the “Operational Maneuver Group”, or in other words, the guys who are supposed to occupy any hexes vacated by enemy units and do hasty attacks if/when possible. That means that I will have 5 command points to attach whatever ancillary forces I see fit, either divisions or brigades.

So equipping 4 Shock Armies means getting out of the front – or collecting from any Siberian reinforcements still on their way – the 24 best Rifle Divisions in the RKKA roster, the best 8 Tank Brigades and the best 4 Cavalry Corps. Besides that, I would like them to have a fixed establishment of non-artillery SU's. I think that 5 Sapper Regiments each and 3 Tank Battalions will do. I will concentrate heavier caliber tube and rocket artillery under the STAVKA, and assign them on a mission-oriented basis. This is going to be quite expensive regarding AP's, but I think it's the way to go, since I can't afford buying tons of tube and rocket SU's.

Regarding Cavalry Corps, I have 37 Cavalry divisions, which mean 12 Cavalry Corps. 4 of them will be reserved for the Shock Armies and the rest will be kept under the STAVKA and assigned to Armies or Fronts depending on the situation. Regarding the SU payload for these, I think the best mix will be 1 Tank Bn, 1 AT Regiment (Type A or C, equipped with either 85mm AA guns or 76mm guns) and 1 MG-Arty Bn. Why the latter? I think Cav divisions are really light on support weapons, and these Bn's are just a bunch of support weapons.

So summarizing, the build plan is:

• 32 Sapper Regiments
• 14 Tank Battalions
• 12 AT Regiments
• 12 MG Arty Bns

which means a budget of 70 AP's, plus the Cav Corps formation costs, 130 AP's, will mean that I'll be spending, in the next seven turns about 200 AP's. I think I have more than enough: Volkhov Front arrival will help greatly – 150 AP's right off the bat – and I've got accumulated a total of 93 AP's so far. I'll have plenty of room for building some heavy caliber SU and appointing leaders and SU's on a mission oriented basis.

This turn I build:

• 36 Sapper Regiments (I lost my count and built 4 more than I wanted)
• 14 Tank Battalions
• 12 AT Regiments (6 of type A, 6 of type C)
• 12 MG-Arty Battalions
• 6 Rocket Light Regiments
• 7 Army Artillery Regiments (20 152mm Howitzers each)

That's what I needed, and then some. Future buys will be evaluated depending on how I see the Red Army force levels evolve.

Operations

All Front commanders receive orders to attack Axis units which are exposed and look weak (that is, with a reasonable defense CV). It happens there are a quite of those scattered all over the front.

The Red Army forces launch 8 local counterattacks, achieving victory in 7 of them. One against a Hungarian brigade went badly, but fortunately these weren't German troops. The combined losses for each side after land and air action consist of:

1. Axis: 3,300 casualties, about 150 artillery pieces, 35 AFVs, and 31 planes
2. Soviet Union: 6,300 casualties, about 150 artillery pieces, 34 AFVs and 40 planes

I'll be tracking the casualty ratios each turn there are attacks, there's something interesting to learn here. Note that all of the attacks achieved odds higher than 3:1, and even with that, I got away with almost twice as many losses as the Axis. This will become very important during the Winter offensive, to get a hold on how costly are the operations, and will be a major input variable to consider when deciding to continue or stop any offensive action.

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 18 – 16 October 1941

Q-Ball has ceased all kinds of offensive action this turn. He hasn't even flown recon missions.

Operational Situation Report

The only sector requiring my attention is the Rostov – Voroshilovgrad sector of the front. I was wondering why Q-Ball didn't advance any further... now I know. His units CV's are really low here

[center][/center]

checking how far they're from the Railhead I see that the tip of the German spear is about 120 MP's away from the nearest railhead. And the HQ's itself – just east of Stalino – are exactly 99 MP's away from the railhead. German logistics are really outstretched here. If he didn't attack was obviously because he knew he would be stranded in a sea of thick mud. I think I should attack here. He's left a two hex gap just southwest of Voroshilovgrad which might be menacing his forces on the bulge. I need to look into that and see if I can exploit it.

Logistics & Organization

I realize there's a missing ingredient for the Shock Armies: they'll need to be able to extend the railheads in their wake. I comission 8 brand new RR Brigades to be attached directly to Shock Army HQ's.

Operations

If Q-Ball logistics are so stretched, I think I should attack. I command 16th and 38th Armies around Voroshilovgrad to attack the German infantry divisions on their front:

[center][/center]

Of the three attacks, two are a failure – and quite close – and one was a success. This wasn't a long shot... if I just had more strength here...

[janh]

Ok, if he ain't flying recon, he's setting up himself for some unpleasant surprises.  But I'd not expect that to continue, Q-Ball is an excellent tactician with years of wargaming under the hood, so he will not plan to tumble around in the dark.

I agree that AGS seems overextended, supply-wise.  Unfortunately, the Axis lines are quite short and optimized, no big bulges or so.  If you could break through at Voroshilovgrad and gain mobility with your cav and mech units, you could aim for the coast of Taganrog Bay? The catch is the rearward fort line apparently just being dug by axis minors around Stalino, that would be a threat to the right flank of your breakthru columns. Maybe this would be a spot to start reinforcing? Past mud, he might also try another push here, and maybe you can set him up here by giving ground towards Rostov?

Don't know for sure, but from your previous large scale map, Q-Balls planned 2nd line fortifications don't look ideal between Kharkov and towards Kursk - lots of bends and overlaps, and the southern main line appears to have a open end at Belgorod... Maybe just threatening a hard push there might require him to place a lot of reserves there?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: janh
Ok, if he ain't flying recon, he's setting up himself for some unpleasant surprises.  But I'd not expect that to continue, Q-Ball is an excellent tactician with years of wargaming under the hood, so he will not plan to tumble around in the dark.

What I've seen so far is that Q-Ball seldom sends his recon flights deep into Soviet territory: he's more into gathering information of tactical and operational significance, rather than strategic. I also guess he doesn't see much need to exposing the Luftwaffe to operational losses - which I guess are much more likely in this weather - when he can be pretty sure where my lines lie.

What he's not seeing is where I'm forming up the Shock Armies, and he shouldn't either see where I'm gathering the Cavalry divisions to form up the corps. All he's seeing is a considerable build up of Soviet Armies in the front, which is not surprising nor extremely worrying, given the rasputitsa "balsamic" properties on the RKKA strength.

ORIGINAL: janh
I agree that AGS seems overextended, supply-wise.  Unfortunately, the Axis lines are quite short and optimized, no big bulges or so.  If you could break through at Voroshilovgrad and gain mobility with your cav and mech units, you could aim for the coast of Taganrog Bay? The catch is the rearward fort line apparently just being dug by axis minors around Stalino, that would be a threat to the right flank of your breakthru columns. Maybe this would be a spot to start reinforcing? Past mud, he might also try another push here, and maybe you can set him up here by giving ground towards Rostov?

I'm expecting to fight a major battle over Rostov during late November. I don't think he'll try to hold it, his goal will be to smash as many Soviet units as possible. He knows he's overextended there, but not too much. What he doesn't look like acknowledging is how badly overextended he's on the Crimea.

ORIGINAL: janh
Don't know for sure, but from your previous large scale map, Q-Balls planned 2nd line fortifications don't look ideal between Kharkov and towards Kursk - lots of bends and overlaps, and the southern main line appears to have a open end at Belgorod... Maybe just threatening a hard push there might require him to place a lot of reserves there?

I'm becoming more and more convinced of focusing my activity come winter between Tula and Kharkov, and activity on other sectors being a sideshow/distraction. My recon tells me that he's building frantically the area, I guess he hadn't enough AP's for so many FR's. Defensive terrain there is very poor, rivers will be frozen and cities are scarce. The bad thing is that there are few rail lines supporting any offensive. I wouldn't be surprised though to see a mass withdrawal to the west just before blizzard hits.

I will reevaluate this on the first Snow turn, recon should be "somewhat" more informative.

[Klydon]

I would look at some past AAR's as far as the downsides of an offensive out of the Crimea before you make too many plans down there. Very hard for the Russians to support logistically and not have his troops eventually turn into garbage over time. However, it can certainly take the pressure off the main front in many cases.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Klydon
I would look at some past AAR's as far as the downsides of an offensive out of the Crimea before you make too many plans down there. Very hard for the Russians to support logistically and not have his troops eventually turn into garbage over time. However, it can certainly take the pressure off the main front in many cases.

You're completely right Klydon, a big offensive there is unfeasible. Sevastopol, while a major port, can hardly manage to keep well supplied the two or three armies I would need to make anything serious. The idea is to provoke a big flash in the OKH pan, increasing the possibilities of them dropping the ball somewhere else . I didn't kept such a big garrison in Sevastopol because I pretended to hold the city until 1943, either.

[BletchleyGeek]

I've just sent last 1941 Mud turn to Q-Ball. I haven't bothered with updating the AAR, since all I've been doing has been to implement the plan I outlined at turn 17.

This turn he's done some recon. He found one of the Shock Armies, and I've moved it further east. He also was very curious about what I'm doing around Kerch. Moved around some units to confuse him.

Regarding his dispositions... well, I don't see his motorized units in position for trying major encirclements. He'll perhaps strike through Kalinin and Torzhok, and he's also in position on the Donets basin.

On my behalf, I have greatly reinforced the Rostov - Voroshilovgrad area. I actually want him to strike. I've also reinforced the Moscow defenses, both in the center and flanks. I've left a "gap" south of Tula, but that's meant to be a trap. Let's see if I don't get caught on my own trap.