What if the US/UK have until spring?

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el cid again
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: Mac Linehan

Sid -

This is a very exciting idea. The problem with Japan will aways be less of everything (compared to the Allies) once the Allies are fully ramped up in production. The concept of a limited war in China, while the major powers frantically geared up for full war (at an unspecified time in the future) is very intriguing. Without a Pearl Harbor suprise attack the USA would need some specific political events or parameters - player defined (?) before the USA - as a democracy - could enter full fledged warfare with the Empire of Japan. Unless, of course, the Japanese player got froggy and attacked...

As each side commits units and logistics to China, it would be very challenging to keep track of the oppositiion' deployments and require some serious thought as to what he is really up to and where he might or might not strike next. One only has to read but a few AAR's to understand that there are some reallydevious players and original thinkers on this forum...

Mac

the big difference is - no PH - no additional carrier orders - so I will assume that happens later - first pass guess six months - but I am open to argument about when the big war will typically begin

Meanwhile ships complete / lay down by existing plans - on both sides

sort of BBO until six months in - then CVO type stuff - except for hulls already delivered or well along
el cid again
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

ORIGINAL: el cid again
ORIGINAL: Historiker





REPLY: Pretty automatically. Aside from most games have but one opponent (computer or human) - IRL the "players" had deals - and "we all fight if any is attacked" was one of them. NEI, Aus, NZ, US and UK were all in on it.


I don't know about the pretty automatically statement.

REPLY: I am privy to some special agreements by commanders in the Far East - and also political deal attempted or made by French Indochina local government and NEI local government. The US turned down the French, but agreed to some of NEI requests. After that, far east commanders did make operational agreements - and NEI sent air and naval units to Malaya - or just offshore.

Japn could go after UK territory in it's own backyard thinking the UK wouldn't be able to do much about it while engaged with Germany.

REPLY: Well - yes - and what it could do we know because of what it did do. My problems is that I cannot trigger reinforcements by events in a game - I must hard set the date. So I need to guess when the war might heat up?

UK and Germany are going at it hammer & tongs in 1941. The US is supplying materials to the UK under the guise of "loans" if I remember right. Local politics for the US was, at the time, arguing on wether to jump in to war or not. I think if Hitler and Germany didn't bring us in on the side of the UK then the loss of UK territories in Malaya, China, and the DEI would probably not have phased the US. WW I was still heavy on the minds of US citizens...

REPLY: Actually, in the Far East more was happening under local terms. When the war began IRL Adm "Tom Thumb" of RN was in Manila, confirring with Adm Hart - and just a few days before that the RN signals intercept post at Singapore had forwarded the data "all Japanese merchant vessels will be in home waters by 8 December Tokyo time" - in spite of specific orders from PM Churchill NOT to inform the Americans. Dutch ships were already in British waters, as were NEIAF squadrons - partially in the hope of deterring the Japanese by showing some solidarity - otherwise for operational utility. Hart had secret orders to go to war - to create an incident - and he may have so advised his RN counterpart. [He was commissioning three vessels for the purpose - one was already back from her first attempt - but she failed to get any Japanese to shoot at her - this being USS Isabel - a former Presidential yacht - and a small WWI era naval vessel. The second just missed a chance to try - because war came sooner than expected - this being USS Lanokai - whose capt - one Lt Vince Trolly - wrote about it in USNI's Cruise of the Lanokai]

Of course we are talking what-if politics here. I can see the US Senate and House of Reps looking @ the UK in the thick of it against both Germany and Japan (saying Japan attacks UK interests like Hong Kong and Singapore) and waffling big-time over jumping into a 2nd world war with two very large fronts (Pacific/Europe). FDR, I believe, would have tried to find a way to have the US stand beside the UK. If FDR couldn't have manufactured a way to help the UK (and as long as Japan and Germany don't actively attack US interests) within the 1st 6 months of 1942, then the V1 bomb might have been the threat needed for the US to jump in...

REPLY: The US military had operated on the assumption of war in the spring, 1942 - and most plans allowed that long for units to work up - weapons to be delivered. Many of these plans were overtaken by events. But in November, FDR privately seems to have decided not to wait - and he kept very close council on the matter. He wanted Japan to take the heat - you can see this in an order to Kimmel and Short "Japan must take the first overt act" in this period. He appears not to have told MacArthur. Mac and Hart (both living in the Manila Hotel) never dined together - hated each other - and almost never cooperated with each other (like the divided command in Alaska - the Army and Navy were as bad as most Japanese in this respect). So I think Mac was taken by surprise. In contrast, Asiatic Fleet was not cought, but was dispersed, or even partly assembled at Balikpapan - far to the South of where first day risks would exist.

I just remember my grampa and grandma talking about that time frame and what was going on in everyday life. The winter of 1941 was really bad (according to my grandparents). Local Radio spent more time talking about local stuff then what was going on in Europe. My Grampa's brother joined the army when he lost his farm (late 30s). My Grampa's brother George said army life sucked. The Army officers apparently thought they might have to go to Europe but the Government wasn't willing to cut loose money for better equipment (my grandpa said it was all about tanks and artillery). I think the US Army was still thinking along the lines of trench warfare in Europe. The earlier rapid attacks in Europe by German armor scared the crap out of the US Army (again these are all old conversations I'm remembering as a child in the mid/late 60s).
el cid again
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What about Russia?? If the USA/UK are neutral and not at war with Japan, could they use the 6 months of land combat in China to also deal with Russia before turning south and taking on the USA/UK??  There are some resources/oil there and that would free up considerable troops after the conquest, or at least a significant amount if they are pushed way back. How to deal with garrison requirements??


In a Russian active scenario there are NO garrison requirements. Or rather - the garrison requirements ar REAL - you have what you have - and it better be enough when/if you need to use it! YOU decide what is enough - and events tell if you got it right - or wrong?

But in principle, taking on Russia is a big deal. It does however offer the chance to take some oil - on Sakhalin Island - and lots of resources - and even some aircraft plants - which WILL switch sides!

As always, my philosophy is "power to the players" - and so it is up to the Japanese player to try to do both at once - or not?
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What about Russia?? If the USA/UK are neutral and not at war with Japan, could they use the 6 months of land combat in China to also deal with Russia before turning south and taking on the USA/UK??  There are some resources/oil there and that would free up considerable troops after the conquest, or at least a significant amount if they are pushed way back. How to deal with garrison requirements??

I'm sure they could go after Russia... In RHS it looks like the big reserves of oil/resources are under UK control... If I felt I had 6 months to a year B4 I was forced to tangle with the UK/US and I was trying to do everything I could to NOT get into it with the US then as Japan, if I was planning to hit Russia, I think I'd hit Russia in about two to three months (as soon as I had my production ramped up) - say March or April of 1942.

I just think the Japanese would believe that the US would not declare war with Japan on behalf of the UK if the US was already unwilling to do so against Germany... And all of those resources are just sitting there - damned near unprotected... And Japan already thought the west was too soft and that the US wouldn't have a stomach for war...

I do see a problem here - maybe the Allies can NOT start the war? But if not - how do we simulate a forstalling attack? IRL UK DID plan to attack into Thailand - and my Thai history says they really tried it - but were rebuffed by Thai border police - of all things. But would the US really start a major war with Japan? Could it - politically? The point of USS Isabel and USS Lanokai - and a third vessel - was that we could say "Japan fired on a US warship" (however minor). Maybe the US should only be able to go to war after something gets shot at?

I will leave it up to the players - power to the players again - but house rules you thing fit are appropriate here. Work it out. I want uncertainty - Japan should not be totally sure what it can get away with?

But consider this: In the Far East the US is a colonial power - it has the Philippines - called an "empire" by its promotors early in the century- and it has a presence in China (which is withdrawing in 1941). [Looks like the President Harrison gets out - and so do the rest of the Marines - and maybe a gunboat - but one is too badly off to make a voyage - and exists only for radio service for the consulate.] Anyway - our position in the area is more active than in Europe - we are a power in Asia already - and we have actual US territory there.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: okami

Not to derail this conversion but I have a technical question. Does the game engine limit a game start of Dec 7 1941 or could the game start at an earlier time, say the Marco Polo Bridge Incident?

Not sure. But I am limiting it to what I said - because I can then use OBs mostly in the files right now - a different year means a lot of OB data entry - and this is a quick idea - or nothing. RHS Level 7 is going to be eclipsed by AE - why do something that will take longer than AE to come out?
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Meanwhile, Japan decides to go it on a smaller scale - focused on defeating China. It has Indochina - and an allied dictator as Prime Minister of Thailand - so exept for the Burma Road - China is almost isolated. [That, in game terms, gives 500 supply points per day at Kunming]



Interesting thoughts, Cid..., but when Japan occupied all of IndoChina and triggered the US Oil embargo wasn't the fuze pretty much lit? With her Strategic Oil Reserve in shrinking mode, it was pretty much "fight soon" or "not be able to fight at all" for Japan.

Could this work without occupying all of IndoChina?

Actually all of Indochina was occupied - but you are right - it happened in stages. By December both are history. Still - in RHS (only) you see points in Indochina NOT maked with Japanese flags - and if Japan does not actually take them ALL - it will have Viet Minh units appear in them later - and be fed by them. [The Viet Minh battalions still will come - but appear at Kunming if their bases are occupied. One unit - a tiny rump of 1st battalion - exists at Dien Bien Phu - under an obscure commander named Vo Nugyn Giap. RHS is full of this sort of thing: later in the war a tiny Korean guerilla unit appears under an obscure Soviet Major Kim Il Sung.]
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: okami

A game start of 1937. Can it be done or does the game engine limit you to starting Dec 7 1941 and no earlier. Alot of the "What ifs" speculate great cooperation between JA and JN. If you as the player could start in 1937 those would not have to be speculation as you would be able to coordinate the economy better than IRL. You would have 20/20 hindsight for 4 years and could shape your strategy accordingly. The game would be limited at the beginning because of the scope of the China conflict and the Japanese would be able to choose when and where they started a war with the west. You could even have triggers for the British without the Americans going to war with Japan over China or say Indo-China. Just a thought.


We sort of have this in EEO. EEO assumes Sugiama - IJA chief of staff - decides war is inevitable by the end of 1937. War with the US and UK and NEI. He decides to go joint, cuts a deal with Yamashita and Yamamoto - and Japan proceeds to reorganize and produce for the war it knows is coming. [That is, they really do what we wrongly assumed / thought they did ] That is EEO. The time 1938 to 1942 is used to buy and organize better - and work up jointly.

China Start Option is more along the lines of CVO - or maybe BBO - really a combination of the two. It is a historical set of forces - but an open start of war situation. It is NOT well planned by either side. Suppose Japan does not decide to Strike South early? That's all it is. Japan can still decide to do so later - but it won't be a good plan - because later there will be more resistence than early.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: okami

Addendum: All the prewar economy could be handle by Phwex files. Add a resource/oil to Osaka to simulate the trade with USA and DEI prior to the embargo and then change it to a normal Phwex after the occupation of Saigon/Indo-China. The file would also take a like number of resources from the allied areas to cover the transfer to Japan and then give them back. You would have a nice small war with China for a few years followed by the larger war after.


I have enough on my pwhex plate - and I do not contemplate any scenario specific pwhex files - ever. For one thing, it is confusing enough to have many options - and to need to use different files for each level. I am not going to make it more complicated than that. Also - I am not interested in a scenario from scratch - but a mod of a mod sort of thing. Like CAIO - I can work this up fast from EXISTING files.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by okami »

Ok but could you answer the simple question I asked which is, can you have a game start before Dec 7 1941 or is that date hardcoded?
 
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

I did answer above - I don't remember. But I think you should use WPO for that. FYI WOP is BETTER than WITP - less hard code - and things like radar - which don't exist in the stock game - will work fine if you put them in. It has some better routines.

It is designed for early dates as well. But I imagine you can use WITP for any date in 1941.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by hueglin »

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

ORIGINAL: okami

Not to derail this conversion but I have a technical question. Does the game engine limit a game start of Dec 7 1941 or could the game start at an earlier time, say the Marco Polo Bridge Incident?

You mean like WPO?


I think the cut off date between WPO and WITP is 1938. Anything dated before needs to be in WPO, anything after in WITP.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by Mike Scholl »

ORIGINAL: el cid again

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
Interesting thoughts, Cid..., but when Japan occupied all of IndoChina and triggered the US Oil embargo wasn't the fuze pretty much lit? With her Strategic Oil Reserve in shrinking mode, it was pretty much "fight soon" or "not be able to fight at all" for Japan.

Could this work without occupying all of IndoChina?

Actually all of Indochina was occupied - but you are right - it happened in stages. By December both are history. Still - in RHS (only) you see points in Indochina NOT maked with Japanese flags - and if Japan does not actually take them ALL - it will have Viet Minh units appear in them later - and be fed by them. [The Viet Minh battalions still will come - but appear at Kunming if their bases are occupied. One unit - a tiny rump of 1st battalion - exists at Dien Bien Phu - under an obscure commander named Vo Nugyn Giap. RHS is full of this sort of thing: later in the war a tiny Korean guerilla unit appears under an obscure Soviet Major Kim Il Sung.]


All well and good, Cid. But the question was "Once the US Oil Embargo is triggered by Japanese Expansion into IndoChina, doesn't it basically set a timer on the Japanese ability to go to War? With their stockpiles dwindling, could they afford to wait past December? They knew that even if they siezed the SRA it was going to take a couple of years to get full production up and flowing back to Japan.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by jwilkerson »

ORIGINAL: hueglin

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

ORIGINAL: okami

Not to derail this conversion but I have a technical question. Does the game engine limit a game start of Dec 7 1941 or could the game start at an earlier time, say the Marco Polo Bridge Incident?

You mean like WPO?


I think the cut off date between WPO and WITP is 1938. Anything dated before needs to be in WPO, anything after in WITP.

I'm not sure about that - Justin (er um, tankerace) could probably tell us exactly. But when we proposed sliding the 7 Dec 41 start date earlier, IIRC it was Justin that stopped us. So as far as I know the WPO scope runs right up to 6 Dec 1941 (East of IDL date), at least that is how AE is viewing things. I.E. any war that starts before the historical start of WITP II is a hypothetical war and that fits into the WPO scope which covers hypothetical wars between the real historical wars!




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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by okami »

But was actually looking not at a hypothetical war between WW I and WWII but what is actually just an extension of the war albeit prior to hostiles with the west. Does the game engine allow this, if not why not. Surely not for the sake of having to buy another game.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl

ORIGINAL: el cid again

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
Interesting thoughts, Cid..., but when Japan occupied all of IndoChina and triggered the US Oil embargo wasn't the fuze pretty much lit? With her Strategic Oil Reserve in shrinking mode, it was pretty much "fight soon" or "not be able to fight at all" for Japan.

Could this work without occupying all of IndoChina?

Actually all of Indochina was occupied - but you are right - it happened in stages. By December both are history. Still - in RHS (only) you see points in Indochina NOT maked with Japanese flags - and if Japan does not actually take them ALL - it will have Viet Minh units appear in them later - and be fed by them. [The Viet Minh battalions still will come - but appear at Kunming if their bases are occupied. One unit - a tiny rump of 1st battalion - exists at Dien Bien Phu - under an obscure commander named Vo Nugyn Giap. RHS is full of this sort of thing: later in the war a tiny Korean guerilla unit appears under an obscure Soviet Major Kim Il Sung.]


All well and good, Cid. But the question was "Once the US Oil Embargo is triggered by Japanese Expansion into IndoChina, doesn't it basically set a timer on the Japanese ability to go to War? With their stockpiles dwindling, could they afford to wait past December? They knew that even if they siezed the SRA it was going to take a couple of years to get full production up and flowing back to Japan.

Yes. Japan has a 30 month oil stock pile clock - starting from July 1941. It is not that bad in WITP - for various reasons - and the pace of operations matters a lot. Several things went differently than that seems to say:

a) Ops took more than expected

b) Oil fields came up 100% far faster than expected - due to local native help - which neither Japan nor the Europeans believed possible - in spite of a shipload of Japanese experts getting sunk en route to Balikpapan.

But essentially you do have a window of time - and your oil stocks will go down the longer you wait to start building them back up. I don't think Japan can wait two years - but it can wait one. Six months is definitely in the cards.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

ORIGINAL: okami

But was actually looking not at a hypothetical war between WW I and WWII but what is actually just an extension of the war albeit prior to hostiles with the west. Does the game engine allow this, if not why not. Surely not for the sake of having to buy another game.

Because they didn't think of it - and so the system design assumed 1941 - pretty sure of that - possibly Dec 1941 - and maybe even Dec 6 1941. You need to define limits - and once you do a computer interprets them literally. I do know that for dates like 2001 you must use 1901 in WPO.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by Capt. Harlock »

But essentially you do have a window of time - and your oil stocks will go down the longer you wait to start building them back up. I don't think Japan can wait two years - but it can wait one. Six months is definitely in the cards.

From what I've read, the Japanese didn't have much longer than that: their economy would have managed, but they couldn't get the oil refined and back out to the units in China in time if they'd waited much beyond December '41 to strat grabbing oil fields.

Something that I think would be very useful is if the Japanese were allowed to occupy the Dutch East Indies only. Since the Dutch government was at that time a puppet government of the Nazis, the Japanese could have made a treaty with Germany allowing them in. The actual Dutch units would probably have obeyed the Free Dutch government, and the British certainly would have declared war in support. Whether FDR would have gone in is an interesting question (my guess is yes). However, the Axis and the isolationists would have claimed that the Allies were the aggressors. The U.S. economy could not have been mobilized as completely and as quickly. (A few days after Pearl Harbor, the Amercan aircraft companies were told to make all they could -- the government would buy 'em. This order would probably have lead to FDR's impeachment before PH.)

It might be useful to allow the Japanese to attack Sumatra, Java, and Southern Borneo only until the Allies declare war, at a suitable cost in Political Points. This would give the Japanese access to several major oil bases in time to keep their war machine running.
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by el cid again »

Au contrair, mon ami, the Dutch did NOT have a puppet government with jurisdiction over the Indies. This isn't Indochina under a Vichy regime sort of thing. That is, there was a Dutch government in exile in Britain, and the Navy and NEI were loyal to that NON puppet regime. The NEI were virtually a country anyway - in administrative terms. Something like a British Dominion, it had its own armed forces, and it was acting on its own behalf in diplomatic and military terms. As I posted above, the Dutch were - before hostilities began - deploying naval and air units to help the British in Malaya. The reasoning was a bit like Franklin in the debate about the Declaration of Independence: something like "if we sign this, we may hang together; if we don't surely we will hang separately." They had faint hope this policy would deter a Japanese attack. Failing that, the NEI felt it would get Allied support if they had come in early, with forces in area. And that turned out to be sound judgement.

Now the US Congress matter is much more of an issue. This is why FDR wanted a "Tonkin bay Incident" and tried to force it to happen. He wanted to be able to say "they fired on a US warship." [Three small vessels - two actual yahts and one former patrol craft which had also served as the Presidential yacht - were to be technically commissioned with three vital assets: (1) A US Flag which was NOT to be flown until AFTER they got fired upon; (2) a radio so they could broadcast "they shot at us - they shot at us - they shot at us" until silenced; and (3) an ancient 3 inch SP gun - so it could be said they were actually armed. These were to violate the rules of the road in front of IJN vessels until they fired a warning shot.] The isolationists had enough votes to stop a declaration of war unless spin could change that.

The beauty of this mod concept is I don't have to decide. PLAYERS have to decide. All you need do is convince the Allied player he cannot move US units - or whatever - and that is that. Not that it is something I would agree to as an Allied player. But you don't need my agreement - just the one you are playing with. Cut whatever deal you wish - make house rules to your heart's content. I just give you the vehicle to play it out - whatever it is.

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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by Capt. Harlock »

The beauty of this mod concept is I don't have to decide. PLAYERS have to decide. All you need do is convince the Allied player he cannot move US units - or whatever - and that is that. Not that it is something I would agree to as an Allied player. But you don't need my agreement - just the one you are playing with. Cut whatever deal you wish - make house rules to your heart's content. I just give you the vehicle to play it out - whatever it is.

I don't think you read my post carefully enough. If you study it closely, you will note that I agreed with you that the actual Dutch units on the ground (and at sea) could be expected to resist an attempted Japanese occupation. But even more important is what needs to happen to the mod. My scenario envisions a substantial cost in morale, political will, and economic mobilization to the Allies, especially the U.S. I don't think that can be simulated by house rules alone. A Japanese attack outside the NEI should trigger the standard mobilization levels of WitP, but if the Allies have to declare war, then there should be "hard-wired" penalties. (Think of it as something like the activation of the Soviet Union.)
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RE: What if the US/UK have until spring?

Post by okami »

I would agree any DoW by the USA should have far reaching and disasterous effects but, the Dutch were a British allie and an attack on them is an attack on Britain. In this way the Dutch are different than the Vichy.
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