What if the US/UK have until spring?

[el cid again]

Suppose that Allied thinking in 1941 worked out better?

Suppose that FDR did not conclude that war was inevitable - and in some sense desireable - late in 1941? [This based on the secret orders to Adm Hart to use three minor vessels to cause a sort of "Tonkin Bay Incident" to insure hostilities in December. Granted only one of the three - USS Isabel made such a patrol - and it failed to find enemy ships to provoke - the orders - and the working up of USS Lanokai - remain as evidence of FDR's intent.]

Suppose instead there was time for convoys to deliver the arms requested by MacArthur for the Philippines? That smaller scale British plans (which indeed will lose some units diverted on an emergency basis early in 1942 - these being delayed until later) in Malaya were implemented? That Australia has time to work up more of its forces in theater?

Meanwhile, Japan decides to go it on a smaller scale - focused on defeating China. It has Indochina - and an allied dictator as Prime Minister of Thailand - so exept for the Burma Road - China is almost isolated. [That, in game terms, gives 500 supply points per day at Kunming]

We could do a scenario in which the Allies (except China) are "active but not bellegerent" - one with no Dec 7 surprise ever -

and in which both sides get to maneuver and determine (semi-independently) when the war starts in earnest?

This means both sides must deploy to deal with POSSIBLE enemy attacks - BEFORE there are ANY enemy attacks at all on that nation. It would be the sort of thing real military commanders face in the approach to a real war - we are not at war yet - we can go to war - but should we? if so, when? where? with what? Meanwhile, as time passes, we get more stuff, run recon (Japan overflew the Philippines in unmarked Nells for example) - and try to figure out what they are up to?

The ROCAF could be permitted to upgrade to other aircraft - aircraft which would normally be used by US or Soviet forces. The AVG might be de facto expanded - with certain units flown around the world - to China via India and Burma -
to join the fight. [Up to the Allied player] But as long as fighting is confined to China - engaged by units in Manchukuo, Korea, Japan, Formosa, Hainan and Indochina - the war remains limited. When that changes - why and how - that is up to the players to decide - individually - with all the consequences of their choices. Maybe even including a surprise offensive - by either side - on whatever basis they can work up. Maybe including an offensive poorly opposed - because not enough was in position to oppose it.


Are wargamers interested only in battles - or in the strategies of military forces which lay the foundations for battles to come?

We might call it CSO (China Start Option)

[1EyedJacks]

Wow - that is an interesting proposal for a game. If Japan starts out at war only with China, would it have an increased ability to trade in technology with Germany? Improved subs come to mind, and maybe some additional german air frame designs, or even artillery and armored units?

Very cool idea tho - I really like it.

[el cid again]

The problem with trade with Germany is that Germany is at war - and worse - not just war with Britain and the Netherlands - but also with the Soviet Union. So Germany can no longer send ships over the top of the USSR nor by rail accross Russia - as it did earlier - and it is effectively cut off from using the Southern Oceans. Yanagi Operations (logistic connections between the Axis powers) are notable for their paucity and 50% casualty rates. I don't see how there could be any more - nor any less - connections between the two powers (and - IRL - also Italy was involved - particularly supplying some large subs converted to transport roles - but not represented in WITP because it is an extratheater sort of thing)? I would not change anything that Japan gets for that reason. But certain Commonwealth forces would not come in so soon - there being no emergency requirement in 1941. [The problem is - I must guess - I don't know when they would come in during a game that has not happened - so I would probably make it a uniform six months later]

[Historiker]

Germany used Spain, Monaco, Switzerland and Portugal for traidiing while at war.

Sending blueprints onboard of a spanish ship is no problem as long as Japan isn't at war with the allies...

[el cid again]

Well - except that the Brits will sieze it - this is a good point. They did that with ships just outside Japanese territorial waters - and caused a lot of political flap - in 1941. But - yes - that might get more through. The German raider captain - capturing the documents of HMS Andromedon - took them to Japan on a Norwegian tanker - so he would not be intercepted.

EDIT: What they did was stop, search and sieze nationals of enemy bellegerant powers, and anything deemed "contraband" - to which Japan objected mightily.

[1EyedJacks]

If you go with a delayed buildup of 6 months that brings 4 American CVs online by June of 42?

Production would still be ramped up for America but geared towards the European theatre probably? Maybe more air units used in Europe would find their way to the Pacific theatre?

Would Japan still be bound by the treaty restrictions, or in those 6 months would it push to complete the Yamato and, perhaps addional CV/CVL?

Would the pilot pool for Japan be increased and with war-trained experience at the start of the game?

With 6 months to prepare for war, strategic bases will probably be strongly forted up in Java, Malaya, and the DEI, making it harder for Japan to spread rapidly?

If Japan is not at war until June of 42, could they have gained anything by watching the American industry ramp up for war in Europe? Steal a few designs?

America would still have the embargo against Japan in effect; where in China does Japan get the resources to feed its war engine? I'm not really familiar with China; are there mines/refineries/oil fields that Japan would go after immediately to use as war materials?

There is no mutual defense pact between UK/USA. A war between Japan/UK would not necessarily mean immediate hostilities between the US - right?

[Historiker]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Well - except that the Brits will sieze it - this is a good point. They did that with ships just outside Japanese territorial waters - and caused a lot of political flap - in 1941. But - yes - that might get more through. The German raider captain - capturing the documents of HMS Andromedon - took them to Japan on a Norwegian tanker - so he would not be intercepted.

When both nations are neutral, the Brits only have the right to control the ship. As the ship is not one of the enemy and as it's load isn't any contraband, they have to let it get through.
Of course, when they see a totally new design that's clearly of german origin, they won't care about that, but the load can easily be camourflaged as Spain had an own AC industry. How many Cruisercaptains would realize that a AC in parts isn't of spanish origin?

America would still have the embargo against Japan in effect; where in China does Japan get the resources to feed its war engine? I'm not really familiar with China; are there mines/refineries/oil fields that Japan would go after immediately to use as war materials?

I guess that's the idea! Japan can prepare it's attack - but meanwhile it's storages get lower and lower...

There is no mutual defense pact between UK/USA. A war between Japan/UK would not necessarily mean immediate hostilities between the US - right?

Yes, you are right! Maybe they might lend some more ships to the Brits but declare war themselves because of that? Surly not automatically!

[Mac Linehan]

Sid -

This is a very exciting idea. The problem with Japan will aways be less of everything (compared to the Allies) once the Allies are fully ramped up in production. The concept of a limited war in China, while the major powers frantically geared up for full war (at an unspecified time in the future) is very intriguing. Without a Pearl Harbor suprise attack the USA would need some specific political events or parameters - player defined (?) before the USA - as a democracy - could enter full fledged warfare with the Empire of Japan. Unless, of course, the Japanese player got froggy and attacked...

As each side commits units and logistics to China, it would be very challenging to keep track of the oppositiion' deployments and require some serious thought as to what he is really up to and where he might or might not strike next. One only has to read but a few AAR's to understand that there are some reallydevious players and original thinkers on this forum...

Mac

[el cid again]

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

If you go with a delayed buildup of 6 months that brings 4 American CVs online by June of 42?


REPLY: how long the delay is would be determined by players - when they attack outside China - it isn't a limited war any more.

Production would still be ramped up for America but geared towards the European theatre probably? Maybe more air units used in Europe would find their way to the Pacific theatre?

REPLY: The Two Ocean Navy bill was on since 1940 - no changes. The longer they wait - the more they get. Same for both sides.

Would Japan still be bound by the treaty restrictions, or in those 6 months would it push to complete the Yamato and, perhaps addional CV/CVL?

REPLY: Japan had withdrawn from the treaties - Yamato class was not legal under them - so it laid down AFTER the witdrawal. The only change is that they get Yamato when the war starts (if it starts after mid December 1941) or even Musashi - if the war is delayed late in to 1942. The real question is - what happens to Shinano? She was suspended in December 1941 after PH - but no PH - no suspension - she keeps building as a battleship - on her original schedule - I think. Sounds like this is a variant of BBO.

Would the pilot pool for Japan be increased and with war-trained experience at the start of the game?

REPLY: It depends. If we stay with history, not by many - the training classes were small. If we go the EOS way - the experience level drops - but you get more.

With 6 months to prepare for war, strategic bases will probably be strongly forted up in Java, Malaya, and the DEI, making it harder for Japan to spread rapidly?

REPLY: No. There is war in ETO - and Netherlands is occupied. No funding. Also ignorance and arrogance abound: no one knows what Japan can do yet. We need not fear them little guys, right? But DURING THE GAME PLAYERS CAN build fortifications WHEREVER THEY WANT. And they have a while. And they don't know how much of a while either. They might make deals too - NEIAF sent units to Malaya IRL. So did Australia. Up to players!

If Japan is not at war until June of 42, could they have gained anything by watching the American industry ramp up for war in Europe? Steal a few designs?

REPLY: Japan's technical intelligence in this period was focused - on the atomic bomb. They did better than either the Germans or the Russians did - and may have got actual detail drawings of at least one bomb design (because their design looks like a variation of it). I don't think there are any assets to do much more - nor any way to say what ? - nor many things they might want to steal. Quoting my first CPO "Japanese warships were better" anyway. German aid is more useful: Germany had superior sonar (which we adopted post war and have used ever since) - for example. Germany had the idea for jet engines etc.

America would still have the embargo against Japan in effect; where in China does Japan get the resources to feed its war engine? I'm not really familiar with China; are there mines/refineries/oil fields that Japan would go after immediately to use as war materials?

REPLY: This is the big question? But theoretically the embargo was supposed to be partial - it was not done that way - but in theory it should have been. Japan will have trouble - but a limited war is limited in demands. It is part of the tension of the situation. And the game engine is a bit tolerant - supplies include aviation spirit and truck fuel for example.

There is no mutual defense pact between UK/USA. A war between Japan/UK would not necessarily mean immediate hostilities between the US - right?

Well - no in an absolute sense. But there are agreements - and we did agree to fight if either Malaya or Philippines were engaged. Up to the Allied player - but what would YOU do?

[el cid again]

ORIGINAL: Historiker

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Well - except that the Brits will sieze it - this is a good point. They did that with ships just outside Japanese territorial waters - and caused a lot of political flap - in 1941. But - yes - that might get more through. The German raider captain - capturing the documents of HMS Andromedon - took them to Japan on a Norwegian tanker - so he would not be intercepted.

When both nations are neutral, the Brits only have the right to control the ship. As the ship is not one of the enemy and as it's load isn't any contraband, they have to let it get through.
Of course, when they see a totally new design that's clearly of german origin, they won't care about that, but the load can easily be camourflaged as Spain had an own AC industry. How many Cruisercaptains would realize that a AC in parts isn't of spanish origin?

REPLY: A ship traveling properly will have a manifest declaring its cargo and passengers. What the RN did was "neutrality patrols" - they search for nationals and materials of the wrong nation. They also broke the law enough historians have a saying: "Brittania waves the rules" (inverting the traditional "Brittania rules the waves").

America would still have the embargo against Japan in effect; where in China does Japan get the resources to feed its war engine? I'm not really familiar with China; are there mines/refineries/oil fields that Japan would go after immediately to use as war materials?

I guess that's the idea! Japan can prepare it's attack - but meanwhile it's storages get lower and lower...


REPLY: China DOES produce oil - as does Manchukuo - as does Sakhalin - and even Japan itself. So also in game terms does Thailand (and IRL Thailand fronted for Japanese oil purchases around the embargo - so it nicely simulates - but CHS and RHS put in rubber as oil). So Japan gets some oil - and it has significant stocks - and it can sieze NEI oil - or Brunei oil - or British North Borneo oil - any time it wants to. Up to the player when.

There is no mutual defense pact between UK/USA. A war between Japan/UK would not necessarily mean immediate hostilities between the US - right?

Yes, you are right! Maybe they might lend some more ships to the Brits but declare war themselves because of that? Surly not automatically!

REPLY: Pretty automatically. Aside from most games have but one opponent (computer or human) - IRL the "players" had deals - and "we all fight if any is attacked" was one of them. NEI, Aus, NZ, US and UK were all in on it.

[DuckofTindalos]

ORIGINAL: 1EyedJacks

Wow - that is an interesting proposal for a game. If Japan starts out at war only with China, would it have an increased ability to trade in technology with Germany? Improved subs come to mind, and maybe some additional german air frame designs, or even artillery and armored units?

Very cool idea tho - I really like it.

Very little technology trading actually happened between Germany and Japan, except on a strictly pay-to-play basis. The subs wouldn't change much; the technology is one thing, but doctrine was too radically different.

[el cid again]

Mark your calendars: I pretty much agree with Terminus.

To start at the end, Hitler DID order two submarines given to Japan - but not at this early stage of the war. One actually made it there - and was properly studied - and turned into a training boat. Japan was unable to use the technology.

Seems a German boat is built around its periscope! It was very fancy - we would say "high tech" today - and it required lots of things be in sync with it - including even the torpedoes. Japan had its own torpedo technology - the best in the world - and they could NOT coordinate with German submarines, periscopes or doctrine - for several desparate technical reasons. So not much could come of this cooperation sooner than IRL - the same thing would happen: Japan would decide "nice but not for us"

To end at the beginning, Terminus is correct that there was little cooperation between Germany and Japan - or he would be had he said "in this period." Times changed, and later in the war there was much more cooperation. But since we were talking about 1941/2 - he wrote in that context - and he has it right. In fact, there was only one kind of operational cooperation between Germany and Japan (submarine operations in the Indian Ocean) - and not very much economic or technical cooperation before 1944. Most of what then happened was related to weapons technology, nuclear materials (which means things like beryllium, not just uranium), and jet engines. Hitler did ask for Emily raids in the Caribbean - offering refueling for them - but Japan declined.

[1EyedJacks]

ORIGINAL: el cid again

ORIGINAL: Historiker

ORIGINAL: el cid again

Well - except that the Brits will sieze it - this is a good point. They did that with ships just outside Japanese territorial waters - and caused a lot of political flap - in 1941. But - yes - that might get more through. The German raider captain - capturing the documents of HMS Andromedon - took them to Japan on a Norwegian tanker - so he would not be intercepted.

When both nations are neutral, the Brits only have the right to control the ship. As the ship is not one of the enemy and as it's load isn't any contraband, they have to let it get through.
Of course, when they see a totally new design that's clearly of german origin, they won't care about that, but the load can easily be camourflaged as Spain had an own AC industry. How many Cruisercaptains would realize that a AC in parts isn't of spanish origin?

REPLY: A ship traveling properly will have a manifest declaring its cargo and passengers. What the RN did was "neutrality patrols" - they search for nationals and materials of the wrong nation. They also broke the law enough historians have a saying: "Brittania waves the rules" (inverting the traditional "Brittania rules the waves").

America would still have the embargo against Japan in effect; where in China does Japan get the resources to feed its war engine? I'm not really familiar with China; are there mines/refineries/oil fields that Japan would go after immediately to use as war materials?

I guess that's the idea! Japan can prepare it's attack - but meanwhile it's storages get lower and lower...


REPLY: China DOES produce oil - as does Manchukuo - as does Sakhalin - and even Japan itself. So also in game terms does Thailand (and IRL Thailand fronted for Japanese oil purchases around the embargo - so it nicely simulates - but CHS and RHS put in rubber as oil). So Japan gets some oil - and it has significant stocks - and it can sieze NEI oil - or Brunei oil - or British North Borneo oil - any time it wants to. Up to the player when.

There is no mutual defense pact between UK/USA. A war between Japan/UK would not necessarily mean immediate hostilities between the US - right?

Yes, you are right! Maybe they might lend some more ships to the Brits but declare war themselves because of that? Surly not automatically!

REPLY: Pretty automatically. Aside from most games have but one opponent (computer or human) - IRL the "players" had deals - and "we all fight if any is attacked" was one of them. NEI, Aus, NZ, US and UK were all in on it.

I don't know about the pretty automatically statement.

Japn could go after UK territory in it's own backyard thinking the UK wouldn't be able to do much about it while engaged with Germany.

UK and Germany are going at it hammer & tongs in 1941. The US is supplying materials to the UK under the guise of "loans" if I remember right. Local politics for the US was, at the time, arguing on wether to jump in to war or not. I think if Hitler and Germany didn't bring us in on the side of the UK then the loss of UK territories in Malaya, China, and the DEI would probably not have phased the US. WW I was still heavy on the minds of US citizens...

Of course we are talking what-if politics here. I can see the US Senate and House of Reps looking @ the UK in the thick of it against both Germany and Japan (saying Japan attacks UK interests like Hong Kong and Singapore) and waffling big-time over jumping into a 2nd world war with two very large fronts (Pacific/Europe). FDR, I believe, would have tried to find a way to have the US stand beside the UK. If FDR couldn't have manufactured a way to help the UK (and as long as Japan and Germany don't actively attack US interests) within the 1st 6 months of 1942, then the V1 bomb might have been the threat needed for the US to jump in...

I just remember my grampa and grandma talking about that time frame and what was going on in everyday life. The winter of 1941 was really bad (according to my grandparents). Local Radio spent more time talking about local stuff then what was going on in Europe. My Grampa's brother joined the army when he lost his farm (late 30s). My Grampa's brother George said army life sucked. The Army officers apparently thought they might have to go to Europe but the Government wasn't willing to cut loose money for better equipment (my grandpa said it was all about tanks and artillery). I think the US Army was still thinking along the lines of trench warfare in Europe. The earlier rapid attacks in Europe by German armor scared the crap out of the US Army (again these are all old conversations I'm remembering as a child in the mid/late 60s).

[ny59giants]

What about Russia?? If the USA/UK are neutral and not at war with Japan, could they use the 6 months of land combat in China to also deal with Russia before turning south and taking on the USA/UK??  There are some resources/oil there and that would free up considerable troops after the conquest, or at least a significant amount if they are pushed way back. How to deal with garrison requirements??

[1EyedJacks]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What about Russia?? If the USA/UK are neutral and not at war with Japan, could they use the 6 months of land combat in China to also deal with Russia before turning south and taking on the USA/UK??  There are some resources/oil there and that would free up considerable troops after the conquest, or at least a significant amount if they are pushed way back. How to deal with garrison requirements??

I'm sure they could go after Russia... In RHS it looks like the big reserves of oil/resources are under UK control... If I felt I had 6 months to a year B4 I was forced to tangle with the UK/US and I was trying to do everything I could to NOT get into it with the US then as Japan, if I was planning to hit Russia, I think I'd hit Russia in about two to three months (as soon as I had my production ramped up) - say March or April of 1942.

I just think the Japanese would believe that the US would not declare war with Japan on behalf of the UK if the US was already unwilling to do so against Germany... And all of those resources are just sitting there - damned near unprotected... And Japan already thought the west was too soft and that the US wouldn't have a stomach for war...

[okami]

Not to derail this conversion but I have a technical question. Does the game engine limit a game start of Dec 7 1941 or could the game start at an earlier time, say the Marco Polo Bridge Incident?

[Mike Scholl]

ORIGINAL: el cid again
Meanwhile, Japan decides to go it on a smaller scale - focused on defeating China. It has Indochina - and an allied dictator as Prime Minister of Thailand - so exept for the Burma Road - China is almost isolated. [That, in game terms, gives 500 supply points per day at Kunming]

Interesting thoughts, Cid..., but when Japan occupied all of IndoChina and triggered the US Oil embargo wasn't the fuze pretty much lit? With her Strategic Oil Reserve in shrinking mode, it was pretty much "fight soon" or "not be able to fight at all" for Japan.

Could this work without occupying all of IndoChina?

[1EyedJacks]

ORIGINAL: okami

Not to derail this conversion but I have a technical question. Does the game engine limit a game start of Dec 7 1941 or could the game start at an earlier time, say the Marco Polo Bridge Incident?

You mean like WPO?

[okami]

A game start of 1937. Can it be done or does the game engine limit you to starting Dec 7 1941 and no earlier. Alot of the "What ifs" speculate great cooperation between JA and JN. If you as the player could start in 1937 those would not have to be speculation as you would be able to coordinate the economy better than IRL. You would have 20/20 hindsight for 4 years and could shape your strategy accordingly. The game would be limited at the beginning because of the scope of the China conflict and the Japanese would be able to choose when and where they started a war with the west. You could even have triggers for the British without the Americans going to war with Japan over China or say Indo-China. Just a thought.

[okami]

Addendum: All the prewar economy could be handle by Phwex files. Add a resource/oil to Osaka to simulate the trade with USA and DEI prior to the embargo and then change it to a normal Phwex after the occupation of Saigon/Indo-China. The file would also take a like number of resources from the allied areas to cover the transfer to Japan and then give them back. You would have a nice small war with China for a few years followed by the larger war after.