Playtest Orel 1943 vs. KI

[Cfant]

Turn 18:



The next turn, I had all the VP-hexes. Still - taking Orel on turn 16 is ambitious Has a Soviet player ever achieved this against a human axis player?

[ogar]

Congratulations. 
To answer your last question, why, yes, Elmer has taken Orel from me several times before turn 16; one reason why I put a bonus on OKH holding Orel till turn 17 (as well as the historical accuracy).  But, Elmer always saves Bryansk for last... it's the formation objectives.  So you did much better.

Elmer's "defensive" (and I use the word, advisedly) capabilities are weak in this scenario -- not by design.  I've run out of ideas in this scenario to 'get him to do the smart thing', like NOT counterattacking on turn 1 out of fortified hexes; like DIG IN and defend; like conserve your armor if possible, and use it to eliminate Soviet armor...  No use.

Did you ever receive 4th Tank Army ?  It looked to me like you might have triggered the Ignore Bolkhov penalty by striking so deep on the left near Zhidra so early.  Or do you choose the Theater Option ?

I find it challenging to play either side - esp. in PBEM.  The Soviets are strong.  But I've tried to replicate the limitations of command experience and the thinness of their communications/control.  Combine that with very limited replacements and after turn 10, it's a game of 60% strength units trying to finesse a victory.  (Soviet forces usually received replacement formations versus reinforcements, and here, OKH had just ceded the northern attack on Kursk - so its replacement capacity was drained at turn 1.  Historically, the August battles were a period of refitting/reinforcing while the Germans edged into the fortified Hagen Line.)

[Cfant]

Elmers defensive weakness is obvious in every scenario - a scenario designer cannot do much, I guess So you made the best of it for sure!

I received the 4th Tank army, but it was taken away again the next turn already. So they never took part in fighting. I didn't choose the TO (further german reinforcements were the last thing I wanted to see on the battlefield [:D] )

To play the soviet side against PO is great fun - it was a dense race As axis vs. Soviet PO it's thrilling for the first 8-10 turns - then Elmer runs out of steam... I'll give him one more chance, maybe I was just lucky that he didn't achieve a lasting breakthrough

[ogar]

I received the 4th Tank army, but it was taken away again the next turn already. So they never took part in fighting. I didn't choose the TO (further german reinforcements were the last thing I wanted to see on the battlefield )

So that means you did trigger the penalty.  I think the worst part of the penalty is losing all those fresh tank brigades... especially if they show up for a turn before the penalty/withdrawal takes effect.  With the TO, you have a 60% chance of retaining 4th Tank, which makes the TO more attractive.  However, I think using the TO against the PO is 'quite ungentlemanly', etc.

I have seen the Soviet PO change from game to game... sometimes, it's the worst_of_Elmer, sometimes, there is some 'forethought' apparent, and of course, if the attack odds favor the PO early in the game, that means breakthroughs, and a rampaging Elmer  (Definitely not a lot of fun.)

[Cfant]

I guess I owe Elmer a "sorry, guy!" Out of interest I started two games against Soviet PO, playing quickly past Stavkas turn 3. Both times Elmer came up with a pretty impressive starting offense. [&o]

Testplay one:



Testplay two:

Even worse - I'll keep that save, maybe one day I'll play it through. Looks interesting for sure [;)] (looks like only few russian counters, but there are much more who exploited the breakthrough - their just not seen.)



Both times Elmer hat one advantage: A double-turn between turn 2 and 3. That's too early for the germans to do much harm in their following doubleturn, but perfect to exploit any breakthrough, even more, as the Soviet counters are still fresh and up to strength.
I don't remember, but perhaps I really was lucky in my playthrough and Elmer had no doubleturn so early on?

[ogar]

Your most recent test games illustrate what I mentioned above -- even Elmer has varying luck on turn 1 as STAVKA, and so do most humans.  I think the variability is partly the "luck" of the combat rolls, and partly the skill of the player (less with this case for Elmer).

I think in both the games just above, Elmer has done better than the historical Soviet offensive.  "Lucky" Elmer.  But then we've both seen games where the PO does not succeed in making a dent in the line on turn 1, and spends turn 2 fussing around and repeating his mistakes.  (And I've done that playing STAVKA myself.)

Are you having second thoughts about those fortified hexes, now ? 

The double turns occur, as I understand it, when one side has a turn with markedly greater success than the other side... so a massive breakthrough is more likely to double than an ordinary turn with one or two hexes taken at great cost.  I think, for this scenario, the double turns, add something to the game; if I could enable it for PBEM, I would.

[Cfant]

In a Pbem, doubleturns would be overpowered - they simply could decide the scenario. Well, I only have the experience of a few games with this scenario... you were right, the Soviets HAVE a real chance to break through the german lines. Could nothing do against it in the two latest tests...
Hm, like Oberst Klink suggested: Maybe a shock bonus for the Soviets? Maybe on turn 2, if on turn 1 a TO is chosen at some price? The 500/800% Hexes are a problem for Elmer, a human will better think if it's worth an attack...

Great scenario, Ogar! Can really recommend it for other players!

[ogar]

Cfant,

Thanks for your kind words. As I've said, one of my main goals was just to complete a scenario, and then to see if it worked, and then... see if it was any good. I'm well aware it isnt perfect, though.

And just to add to this, here's screenshot from my PBEM with Fulcrum (he's playing as STAVKA), at the beginning of OKH turn 1 (this is what I saw after the pbl ended) :

About the only good news in this is a) there will not be any double-turns (whew !), and b) this may show that getting a substantial breakthrough on turn 1 is possible.

[ogar]

I'm back after a short intermission to wrap up this AAR.

Things actually got worse from turn 1. My opponent had phenomenal luck in his attacks. He's also played very skillfully.

The screenshot from the end of the OKH turn 5 shows it all :

[ogar]

At that point, I did say to myself, "Well, that's ballgame." Bolkhov almost surrounded. MASSIVE DEEP breakthrough in the center. And the Soviets are still getting more and more reinforcing units.
However, as a great man once said : 'It aint over till it's over.'



Above is turn 8.

What has happened is that the Soviets crossed the trigger line - approaching Bryansk too closely before capturing Bolkhov. So, OKH rushed reinforcements from the other sectors of the front. I, of course, immediately counter-attacked with the new panzer and new infantry division. Not quite the smartest move, but at least it threw a stop to the onrush toward Bryansk. I made the decision to let the Bolkhov crew manage it on their own.

[ogar]

By turn 11, you can see that the Soviet gains have slowed. A big piece of that was the withdrawal of 4th Tank Army. This is one of the penalties of skipping the historic constraints Stalin put on the Red Army in this battle. (A similar withdrawal historically occured with 3rd Guards Tank Army, east of Orel -- off the map for this small scenario.)

[ogar]

At this point, I just became overconfident. I had escaped surrounding at Bolkhov but lost the city. I had blunted the central attack. I was slooowly wiggling out of the Zhidra-Dyatkovo trap on the west side.
I decided counter-attacking and trying to recapture Bolkhov, along with counter-attacking the center, was a good idea. No. No, it was not a good idea. But that will show up later. Here's turn 15 :



The counter-attacks have stalled. And the losses taken - for no real gains - are starting to show in glowing red units. By the way, those flak units starting to appear in turn 11 and onward, come from the Orel flak units. They are released from garrison once the Red Army approaches within 10 hexes of Orel.

[ogar]

Turn 20

From the number of 1-1 units I have, and the number of units in red or orange, you can see how weakened my forces are. The good news is - the other guy's are in worse shape. Most units - even not subdivided - are down to 1/3 starting strength, and it takes several formerly regiments to mount even a weak attack. Both of us are just letting the flanks hang open. We do not have the extra units to do more than a screen. And sometimes, he slips in raiders to cut behind me. Sometimes, I try the same on him.

The Bryansk lines may look static, but that is because every time he gains a hex, I counter-attack and take it back. Well, almost every time. He is making steady progress, but too slowly.

And the surprise stars of the show - for OKH - are the security units in Karachev and Khotinets. (On the rail lines in the center of the map) No supply. Surrounded. Attacked by armor and artillery-back Guards infantry. And still they hold.