Good Opening Moves for US

[RevRick]

Virtually everything I have read indicated that the IJN would not have anything near the troop lift capacity which is being thrown around here so blissfully. They had to use a goodly number of their merchant ships to supplement their AP's to pull off the number of attacks they did from Dec. 41 to Mar. 42 - and needed that load capacity back in their merchant fleet for keeping the folks back home fed. Something seems amiss if the IJN can ship 3 1/2 to 4 divisions around so easily and at once. Hmmmm.

[jules]

... and don´t forget the fuel in Truk !
I also did these "all out" drives in the South and SW Pac in PacWar (before I got this laptop with SiS graphic chip). But the one who does it has to answer the question: what comes next ? I was always happy when my opponents abandonned the game because this was like fulfilling of Yamamoto´s (the real one) plan.
When they fight it till the end... ... what do you do as the Jap ? Leave the Fijis, New Caledonia and so on after some months? Using the valuable Betties only to sink some AK with jute or bananas in it ? Sending out your CLs, DDs and SS against an ever growing number of escort ships (Remember the Bismarck..)? Or consuming the fuel pool to move major fleets from PM to Midway to Fiji to... ?
In my oppinion in a stategic game you have to secure the real values: ressources. And destroy the enemie´s industry. So: on the way to India....

By the way: Perhaps it would be possible to easier interdict detected convoys on the high seas with surface vessels in WitP ?! The option to do some "war of privateering" ?!

[Admiral DadMan]

Originally posted by Attack Condor
Deban, something I'm trying now (to the amusement of some here, no doubt ) is the abandonment of PM beginning at turn one. I've heard reference to it as "Fortress Australia", ...

Patience.
Patience.
Patience.
Patience.

The IJN must win early.
The USN must simply survive.

Just an opinion. If you want, check out the AAR "Do Condors eat Sushi?" for more details.

Good luck

A.K.A. the "Bravely Run Away Away" strategy

[Yamamoto]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
...but on the bright side, looks like you really mauled the Jap carriers.

You might even be winning.

Well, let's just say, based on that report, it was a very FOGgy day.

Both Shokaku and Zuikaku can still launch and recover planes and I plan to demonstrate that next turn. Shoho's crew will be enjoying some R&R back in Tokyo (I hope).

Yamamoto

[Admiral DadMan]

Originally posted by Yamamoto
Well, let's just say, based on that report, it was a very FOGgy day....


Yamamoto

I was "FOGged" like that in our last game. Then the rain came - of IJN bombs that is...

[Mr.Frag]

Just an FYI: for Deban

Air units destroyed via a captured base return to the game in 390 turns, so you will get them back sometime

( note to Yamamoto: let him live 391 turns )

[Attack Condor]

originally posted by Mr. Frag

A.K.A. the "Bravely Run Away Away" strategy

ahh.... another fan

and while we're on the subject, you might think about detaching an AK from Brisbane (once the PM ... um... "relocation".. is complete) to Koumac and get those bulldozers back to Noumea where they can do some good with the fortification upgrading

If even this leaves you feeling too exposed, pull your head all the way back into your shell by basing your CV TF aircraft at Noumea and sending the carriers back to Pearl for refit with better AA weapons, etc.

(that should stimulate some discussion )

[denisonh]

One thing to keep in mind is that version 2.3 has a significant impact on early US capabilities, so strategies that were successful before have become somewhat less effective.

And has been noted here that sc#19 is significantly more dangerous for the US than sc#17.

With that being said, I believe that the US can put up a good fight and keep PM in sc#17.

The IJN can make a push to take PM early, but several things must occur:

1. Must account for and neutralize USN carriers. The longer the delay in a decisive carrier battle, the more it benefits the US player generally.

2. Japanese player must be aggressive and willing to sustain high casualties. Less than aggressive or squeamish IJN players will not take PM against a determined opponent.

3. Must blockade and shut down the airfield at PM.

Now maybe the 8 or so PBEM games I have played as the Allies are not representative, and given they started on versions earlier than version 2.3, I have never had PM shut down. Close to it in a couple, but not shut down. And generally I have maintained carrier capability, or when I didn't have it, the IJN did not press.

Under 2.3, it will be doable for the IJN to take a strong PM without interference from USN cariers.

If the US can keep PM open (yes, it can be done), and retain carrier capability, the IJN wil be hard pressed to take PM.

And one thing to remember, even losses favor the USN. Make it bloody and expensive, and that buys time for the Allies.

I do not think PM is a done deal by any means for SC#17.

And if anyone cares to give me a practical lesson via PBEM, I would welcome it:) .

[Mike_B20]

Good to hear you still have faith in the allies ability to put up some sort of effective resistance denisonh.

I was beginning to fear that the allied position is not tenable unless they send everything back to Pearl Harbor, including Noumea and Australia.

[denisonh]

Much like the IJN, you cannot defend everything.

Like the saying goes "Try to defend everything, you defend nothing"

The USN player must commit to a defensive plan to save PM early, and as a result accept risk elsewhere.

And that means Luganville.

I have managed in 2 PBEM games to repel strong attempts at Luganville while prosecuting an active defense of PM.

One player was doing the 100% to Noumea strategy, and the other a second effort after repelling an attempt on GiliGili/PM.

Risk management is key, coupled with active recon to determine enemy strengths and intentions. And understanding that the IJN has more difficulting taking and maintaining Luganville.

I would rather have to retake Luganville than PM as the Allies, and conduct my defense with that premise in mind.

[Mr.Frag]

Just some facts:

Assault differences: Japan above Allied troops (looking at raw numbers, no factoring for fatigue/skill/etc)

396 difference turn 59
425 difference turn 80

Additional to this which must be factored in Northern Command (347 Assault value can not be moved from Australia) which shifts this to:

743 turn 59
772 turn 80

To put in perspective, the strongest Allied brigade weighs in at 117.

Between turn 77 until turn 179 Japan gets 72

Between turn 77 until turn 179 Allies get 1318

As you can see, the advantage Japan had has now completely vanished.

We are now looking at a -845.

Now we apply the same Penalty for Northern Command (403 now) and you end up with Japan being -442.

If Japan has not made their mark by turn 85, they are not going to, purely from a math standpoint. It can no longer be done.

From a 772 advantage to a -442 disadvantage in raw assault power which is the measure of troops.

You really think you can hold PM against an 772 advantage do you? ( this is assault numbers, not TROOP numbers )

Pipe dreams are a wonderful thing until the puff of smoke gets blown away

(edit)

As you can see from the raw numbers here, the implications to lets say loosing the 7th division because your transports get creamed trying to get to PM or the 3rd division etc is 351 to those odds, so that 743 early in the game just shifted to 1094 !!! because you were in a rush :rolleyes:

(edit some more lol)

These numbers are reflective of scenario 17, scenario 19 i just downright scary, with Japan reaching the 720 mark advantage by turn 21 and holding it longer...

[denisonh]

Originally posted by Mr.Frag
Just some facts:

Assault differences: Japan above Allied troops (looking at raw numbers, no factoring for fatigue/skill/etc)

396 difference turn 59
425 difference turn 80

Additional to this which must be factored in Northern Command (347 Assault value can not be moved from Australia) which shifts this to:

743 turn 59
772 turn 80

To put in perspective, the strongest Allied brigade weighs in at 117.

Between turn 77 until turn 179 Japan gets 72

Between turn 77 until turn 179 Allies get 1318

As you can see, the advantage Japan had has now completely vanished.

We are now looking at a -845.

Now we apply the same Penalty for Northern Command (403 now) and you end up with Japan being -442.

If Japan has not made their mark by turn 85, they are not going to, purely from a math standpoint. It can no longer be done.

From a 772 advantage to a -442 disadvantage in raw assault power which is the measure of troops.

You really think you can hold PM against an 772 advantage do you? ( this is assault numbers, not TROOP numbers )

Pipe dreams are a wonderful thing until the puff of smoke gets blown away

(edit)

As you can see from the raw numbers here, the implications to lets say loosing the 7th division because your transports get creamed trying to get to PM or the 3rd division etc is 351 to those odds, so that 743 early in the game just shifted to 1094 !!! because you were in a rush :rolleyes:

(edit some more lol)

These numbers are reflective of scenario 17, scenario 19 i just downright scary, with Japan reaching the 720 mark advantage by turn 21 and holding it longer...

Ahh, but they have to get there .

If you look at the 4 principles of combat power - Firepower, leadership, manuever and protection, the situation is not as clear cut as you would make it.

Relative combat power is how the firepower is applied, through manuever and tactics.

Greater numbers is only effective if they can be applied. Naval and air forces, and thier handling, in part determine the amount of groundpower applied to PM.

I do not say by any means that it is not unlikely that PM will fall to an IJN player, but a good USN player has a good chance of keeping the IJN out.

Those units have to get to PM. And it ain't a walk in the park for an IJN player facing a quality and determined USN foe.

Like in the NFL, one team has everything on it's side, yet gets beat on Sunday. That is why they play the game:) .

[Mr.Frag]

Actually, now that level bombing of ships has been toned down to something akin to reality it is a walk in the park.

Based on range of air units, PM is under fire from Lae, Rabaul and very shortly after, 3 CV's worth of aircraft which close the base completely.

Once the airfield is trashed, one shifts fire to the port complex, preventing the airfield from ever getting repaired.

Now that the port is damaged (here's the fun part!) Allied attempts to unload ships take dramatically longer, which means that a lot of losses are going to be felt by them, all the while units located at PM are suffering from the high fatigue levels by non-stop air attacks. This has the double effect of prepping PM for a fall AND causing additional troop losses by the attempted transport missions.

This can all be done from the safety of the north side of NG, which puts the Allied in the situation of bringing their CV's north of Gili Gili to push Japan's CV fleet back.

As this is happening (very early in the game), Japan is also sneaking units down the east island chains prepping for Luganville and farther south.

Turn 21 is the first set of AP's for the Allied player. Until then, they only have the starting group at Brisbane. These are being tied up trying to prevent PM's rapid fall.

The Allied player is stuck with a tough choice: Continue to commit to trying to save PM, or regroup and deal with reality

One of the cute things that Japan can do is park the A6M2's in LRCAP right on PM to kill all those pesky C-47's trying to sneak troops in by air.

At this point in the game, Japan has risked absolutely nothing while the Allied are desperately attempting to save PM. Aircraft losses on the Allied side have depleted the pool of pilots as the pathetic units of fighters with skills in the 50 range and rapidly falling towards 30 continue to gain experience for Japan's pilots. 70+ Zeros fill the sky, raining down bits and pieces of Allied pilots.

The choice is entirely in Japan's hands, with the Allied player only able to react based on intel of what Japan is going to do.

As you put it:

Firepower - Clearly Japan in the early game (they have more of EVERYTHING)
Leadership - always a great debate
Manuever - Hands down Japan at this stage!
Protection - Japan's airpower pre-p-38's rule!

Remember, the values I am using are Assault values, which is the measure used to determine outcome of all land combat. 2 to 1 odds are all that are needed to capture a base.

[denisonh]

Originally posted by Mr.Frag
Actually, now that level bombing of ships has been toned down to something akin to reality it is a walk in the park.

Based on range of air units, PM is under fire from Lae, Rabaul and very shortly after, 3 CV's worth of aircraft which close the base completely.

Once the airfield is trashed, one shifts fire to the port complex, preventing the airfield from ever getting repaired.

Now that the port is damaged (here's the fun part!) Allied attempts to unload ships take dramatically longer, which means that a lot of losses are going to be felt by them, all the while units located at PM are suffering from the high fatigue levels by non-stop air attacks. This has the double effect of prepping PM for a fall AND causing additional troop losses by the attempted transport missions.

This can all be done from the safety of the north side of NG, which puts the Allied in the situation of bringing their CV's north of Gili Gili to push Japan's CV fleet back.

As this is happening (very early in the game), Japan is also sneaking units down the east island chains prepping for Luganville and farther south.

Turn 21 is the first set of AP's for the Allied player. Until then, they only have the starting group at Brisbane. These are being tied up trying to prevent PM's rapid fall.

The Allied player is stuck with a tough choice: Continue to commit to trying to save PM, or regroup and deal with reality

One of the cute things that Japan can do is park the A6M2's in LRCAP right on PM to kill all those pesky C-47's trying to sneak troops in by air.

At this point in the game, Japan has risked absolutely nothing while the Allied are desperately attempting to save PM. Aircraft losses on the Allied side have depleted the pool of pilots as the pathetic units of fighters with skills in the 50 range and rapidly falling towards 30 continue to gain experience for Japan's pilots. 70+ Zeros fill the sky, raining down bits and pieces of Allied pilots.

The choice is entirely in Japan's hands, with the Allied player only able to react based on intel of what Japan is going to do.

As you put it:

Firepower - Clearly Japan in the early game (they have more of EVERYTHING)
Leadership - always a great debate
Manuever - Hands down Japan at this stage!
Protection - Japan's airpower pre-p-38's rule!

Remember, the values I am using are Assault values, which is the measure used to determine outcome of all land combat. 2 to 1 odds are all that are needed to capture a base.

As a great NFL quarterback used to say before every game
:

"Talk is cheap, lets go play"

Now I'd like to see some PBEM results to add some realistic, quantifiable evidence to support your assertions that it is a walk in the park (Not against me, Mr Frag ).

I suggest it is not as easy as you make it out to be. It looks good on paper, but it is not that simple.

Firepower maybe in the IJN favor, but manuever is a function of how you employ your forces. I do not see how you can automatically credit the IJN superioirity. Care to share how you came to that conclusion? Interior lines of communication may be all well and good, but if the issue is taking PM, that does not apply, and ship speeds are pretty much the same on both sides.

Leadership is the strategy and way to manage the battle. That is a funstion of the player.

Protection in carrier warfare is often a function of leadership and manuever.

I say it ain't easy, and you still have yet to convince me otherwise.

[Mr.Frag]

Firepower maybe in the IJN favor, but manuever is a function of how you employ your forces. I do not see how you can automatically credit the IJN superioirity. Care to share how you came to that conclusion? Interior lines of communication may be all well and good, but if the issue is taking PM, that does not apply, and ship speeds are pretty much the same on both sides.

Take a look at the skill levels of Japan's ships vs Allied ships at the start of the game. The USA is sadly lacking in skills, especially at night. Both sides have some quality aggressive surface commanders that negate each other. The Allied have the edge with Radar AND Damage control, but the ships available until the Enterprise and Hornet show up are not terribly effective overall.

Any Allied ships coming to PM are under Japan airspace. Japan can sit back on the other side near Lae and demolish the port while being completely out of reach of Allied CV's. Japan has a very short term fuel advantage (very useful now that CV's don't fly aircraft without fuel).

You asked why I think Japan wins on ships:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/08/42

Weather: Overcast

Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Moresby at 10,40

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 3, on fire
CA Haguro, Shell hits 1
CA Aoba, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 4, on fire
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CA Kako, Shell hits 2
DD Shiratsuyu, Shell hits 3
DD Shigure, Shell hits 2
DD Yugure, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Ariake, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Akebono, Shell hits 2
DD Sazanami, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Ushio, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CA Portland, Shell hits 19, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA Chester, Shell hits 11, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA New Orleans, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA Astoria, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA Minneapolis, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Sims, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Anderson
DD Hammann, Shell hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Morris, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Phelps, Shell hits 1
DD Dewey, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Monaghan
DD Aylwin, Shell hits 1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Moresby at 10,40

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Haguro
CA Aoba, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Kinugasa, on fire
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 12
CA Kako, Shell hits 3
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Shigure, Shell hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugure, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Ariake, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Akebono, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Sazanami, on fire
DD Ushio, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
CA Portland, and is sunk
CA Chester, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CA New Orleans, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
CA Astoria, and is sunk
CA Minneapolis, Shell hits 13, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Sims, Shell hits 13, on fire, heavy damage
DD Anderson, Shell hits 1
DD Hammann, Shell hits 25, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Morris, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Phelps
DD Dewey, on fire
DD Monaghan
DD Aylwin, Shell hits 18, on fire, heavy damage

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Port Moresby at 10,40

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1, on fire
CA Haguro
CA Aoba, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 2, on fire
CA Furutaka, Shell hits 2
CA Kako
DD Shiratsuyu, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Yugure
DD Akebono, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Sazanami, on fire

Allied Ships
DD Anderson, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Morris, Shell hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Phelps
DD Dewey, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Monaghan, Shell hits 1

Thats roughly normal, with both being given good commanders.

[denisonh]

Mr Frag,

I do not dispute that in a dogfight, the IJN has the advantage. I would not classify that as manuever, but as firepower. I do not recall engaging in a surface combat in any of my PBEM games in May, except one.

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 05/30/42

Night Time Surface Combat, near Irau at 42,43

Japanese Ships
AP Aiyo Maru, Shell hits 7, on fire, heavy damage
AP Akashisan Maru, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
AP Aki Maru, Shell hits 23, and is sunk
AP Batavia Maru, on fire
AP Canberra Maru

Allied Ships
CA Portland
CA Astoria
DD Hammann
DD Perkins
DD Monaghan
DD Arunta
DD Warramunga
DMS Southard

Japanese ground losses:
Men lost 947
Guns lost 1


That is where manuever and leadership make the difference, in positioning of your assets and affecting a local superiority in combat power. Do not fight the enemy's fight, fight your fight. But if you do not make any mistakes, and are perfect in your anticipation of the enemy, then I would benefit greatly from engaging you in a PBEM game.

But of course, you discount out of hand the allies as capable of disrupting you plan. I would say that is a small problem with the program you are supporting, and which I do not buy.

Again, you say it is easy. I say maybe it is for you, but not against me.

[Mr.Frag]

But of course, you discount out of hand the allies as capable of disrupting you plan. I would say that is a small problem with the program you are supporting, and which I do not buy.

No I do not, I am merely pointing out that:

(a) Japan has a large advantage during the first 84 moves of the game.

(b) The Allies can not counter Japan's plans during this stage of the game without seriously hurting themselves.

(c) The Allies attempting to seriously stop Japan during this phase will result in losses severe enough to increase this 84 turn advantage that Japan has.

(d) Careful defensive play as the Allies results in not increasing this 84 turn advantage.

(e) Attempting to retain PM during this timeframe can result in the Allied player loosing the turn 85 to 180 advantage they have.

(f) It costs less to capture a base with proper resources then to defend a base with inproper resources.

(g) The starting troops at PM even including the 2.30 additional factors to base unit/engineers/aa/cd etc is not even enough to hold against the starting troops Japan has within transport range without factoring any additions into the mix.

(h) Japan can deny Air transport via CAP over PM which is well within range of Rabaul & Lae.

(i) Japan can completely close PM in less then 15 days even with the Allies throwing every ship they have at the attack since it comes from above Lae via CV's. To counter this force, Allied CV's must advance north of Gili Gili which brings them well within range of Rabaul's Nells & Bettys which are torpedo bombers and generally get hits of a floatation damage variety.

(j) Japan's pilot skills far exceed Allied pilot skills during this time period. This means that the lower skilled Allied pilots are doing nothing more then helping to train Japan's pilots.

(k) Naval combat advantages rest with Japan as the Allied ships must come within bomber range of Rabaul/Lae to interdict Japan, coupled with the night fighting abilities of the Japan ships.

(l) Japan recieves more CV's in much higher numbers then the Allies. Ship for ship, Allied CV's are fewer with more aircraft which makes them higher value. Japan can inflict a 1 to 1 rate of exchange and come out on top.

(m) Japan has a ready supply of replacement fighters to compensate for poor results on the CV front. Multiple squadrons are available soon in the game to offset the higher Allied fighter groups.

I am simply stating that the Allied player does not have the resources to disrupt Japan early in the game. You cannot defend in depth when you have no depth. You have precicely 9 mobile INF units at game start. Thats it! I discount 1 of those because it is already at PM and not likely to leave. You have tranports ONLY in brisbane where 3 of the remaining 8 are. 2 of the remaining 5 are located within Japan torpedo bomber range. I doubt there is anyone who has played UV who didn't get a convoy creamed at Cairns

Each naval loss (troops on transports) due to the large size of Allied INF units represents as much as 1/8th! of their combat power! Sinking the transport itself is totally pointless overall, but the loaded transport is a HUGE shift in Allied power.

Say you are really brave and you think you can hold PM. You load the entire 7th division on transports. Japan sinks them by simply having a naval unit in the PM hex the turn you arrive (which also prevents unloading I might add). That is 3 out of 8 INF units gone, almost 50% !!! of all your troops in one convoy. It is very simple to have rotating bombardment groups deny the port access and once the port is damaged, even if you get there, unload speed is comprimised allowing addtional turns to excert air power losses.

Go ahead, send them to PM if you want. The choice and price is in your hands.

I really don't understand why you seem to be giving imaginary credit and quality to the Allies that simply does not exist in '42. Simply put, they were completely outmatched until the American war machine kicked into production mode (which is what you start to see in '43, ships galore, troops, planes, kitchen sinks, etc)

This in no way implies that the Allies were not good fighters/thinkers/etc, they just didn't have the materials available to fight the war at this time period. Lets not confuse these two things together. If on the other hand, Japan was fuel limited, this would be a no contest debase, but such is not the case. We are talking about UV, not history

[denisonh]

Originally posted by Mr.Frag
No I do not, I am merely pointing out that:

(a) Japan has a large advantage during the first 84 moves of the game.

-- Given

(b) The Allies can not counter Japan's plans during this stage of the game without seriously hurting themselves.

-- Strong assumption that I do not believe is true.

(c) The Allies attempting to seriously stop Japan during this phase will result in losses severe enough to increase this 84 turn advantage that Japan has.

-- Another assumption. Assumes draw or IJN victory.

(d) Careful defensive play as the Allies results in not increasing this 84 turn advantage.

-- USN can effectivelt attrit and delay the IJN

(e) Attempting to retain PM during this timeframe can result in the Allied player loosing the turn 85 to 180 advantage they have.

-- Potentialy so, if the USN doesn't play it right and the IJN makes no mistakes

(f) It costs less to capture a base with proper resources then to defend a base with inproper resources.

-- Defense is a function of more than ground forces, but do not necessarily disagree

(g) The starting troops at PM even including the 2.30 additional factors to base unit/engineers/aa/cd etc is not even enough to hold against the starting troops Japan has within transport range without factoring any additions into the mix.

--You have to get the IJN there, and that is the issue pertinent to the defense of PM

(h) Japan can deny Air transport via CAP over PM which is well within range of Rabaul & Lae.

--True enough, but maintaining LRCAP form Rabaul? will be expensive. (Lae will be unsupprtable as an airbase by week 2)

(i) Japan can completely close PM in less then 15 days even with the Allies throwing every ship they have at the attack since it comes from above Lae via CV's. To counter this force, Allied CV's must advance north of Gili Gili which brings them well within range of Rabaul's Nells & Bettys which are torpedo bombers and generally get hits of a floatation damage variety.

--How long will the carriers maintain thier station? And assumes that they will not be needed elswhere. And no sane alied player would do that with his CVs in that stage of the game.

(j) Japan's pilot skills far exceed Allied pilot skills during this time period. This means that the lower skilled Allied pilots are doing nothing more then helping to train Japan's pilots.

--Every skilled pilot lost by the IJN is a victory for the Allies. The bloodier the combat is, the better for the allies.

(k) Naval combat advantages rest with Japan as the Allied ships must come within bomber range of Rabaul/Lae to interdict Japan, coupled with the night fighting abilities of the Japan ships.

--Given. But the Allies don't have to deal with that for the defense of PM. The only related issue is bombing Lae into the stone age, which can be done.

(l) Japan recieves more CV's in much higher numbers then the Allies. Ship for ship, Allied CV's are fewer with more aircraft which makes them higher value. Japan can inflict a 1 to 1 rate of exchange and come out on top.

-- Early on yes. But with your carriers in the Bismark Sea, what has the USN player to worry about engaging you carriers?

(m) Japan has a ready supply of replacement fighters to compensate for poor results on the CV front. Multiple squadrons are available soon in the game to offset the higher Allied fighter groups.

--Pilots?

I am simply stating that the Allied player does not have the resources to disrupt Japan early in the game. You cannot defend in depth when you have no depth. You have precicely 9 mobile INF units at game start. Thats it! I discount 1 of those because it is already at PM and not likely to leave. You have tranports ONLY in brisbane where 3 of the remaining 8 are. 2 of the remaining 5 are located within Japan torpedo bomber range. I doubt there is anyone who has played UV who didn't get a convoy creamed at Cairns

Each naval loss (troops on transports) due to the large size of Allied INF units represents as much as 1/8th! of their combat power! Sinking the transport itself is totally pointless overall, but the loaded transport is a HUGE shift in Allied power.

Say you are really brave and you think you can hold PM. You load the entire 7th division on transports. Japan sinks them by simply having a naval unit in the PM hex the turn you arrive (which also prevents unloading I might add). That is 3 out of 8 INF units gone, almost 50% !!! of all your troops in one convoy. It is very simple to have rotating bombardment groups deny the port access and once the port is damaged, even if you get there, unload speed is comprimised allowing addtional turns to excert air power losses.

Go ahead, send them to PM if you want. The choice and price is in your hands.

I really don't understand why you seem to be giving imaginary credit and quality to the Allies that simply does not exist in '42. Simply put, they were completely outmatched until the American war machine kicked into production mode (which is what you start to see in '43, ships galore, troops, planes, kitchen sinks, etc)

This in no way implies that the Allies were not good fighters/thinkers/etc, they just didn't have the materials available to fight the war at this time period. Lets not confuse these two things together. If on the other hand, Japan was fuel limited, this would be a no contest debase, but such is not the case. We are talking about UV, not history

Once again, there are some underlying assumptions that underly your analysis that can be questioned.

You are still assuming you can shut down PM. You have said you can do it with Carriers in the Bismark Sea in combination with Rabaul (As Lae is unusable as an airfield by the second week of May in ANY game I play as the Allies)

I say your carriers cannot stay there on station that long, given that there may be other places they need to be.

And as for the 7th, I usualy do not deploy them to PM. The defense of PM does not lie in the ground forces, but preventing a landing of troops. You don't fight the ground battle. That is how you hold PM.

I also assume that the IJN holds Gili Gili? Sounds silly, but I can be retaken by the Allies in your "84 day window", and can delay an assault on PM.

And I disagree, the USN has forces to disrupt the IJN early. Disrupt is the key word. PROPERLY USED, the allies can create many problems for the IJN.

The important point that seems lost on you is that the commander makes a huge difference in the application of the capabilities and resources. I maintain that I can do it, and would guess that some of the real UV USN heavyweights can do the same.

[Full Moon]

I think Mr.Frag's advice is intended for average players like me not for heavyweight player, and it should be. As for the denisonh's argument, it seems to me that you're assuming IJN player should make mistakes and USN player won't make mistakes, so unless you suggest numerical facts as Mr.Frag did, I'll stick to Mr.Frag's advice. But, your point about IJN pilot loss is right.

[Mr.Frag]

I find it funny that you agree to almost every single one of my points about Japan's superiority yet continue to maintain that the Allies magically win still.

You do understand that a 2-1 assault difference is all it takes to win correct? Application of 3-1+ odds which Japan has available results in trivial losses to Japan.

You seem to give magic credit to Allied air power in closing Lae? I'd love to know how you accomplish this task with your bombers flying from Cooktown with skill levels in the 50's. The ONLY bombers that start the game with skills at a level worth using are the 4 B-17 groups that (a) need to transfer increasing their fatigue and then (b) fly extremely long missions non-stop.

The B-25/B-26's just don't have the legs to hit Lae from Cooktown with skill levels in the 50's and massive operational losses coupled with losses due to AA and fighters. You may have lots of them, but they will not last a week at that tempo.

The Hudsons at PM can't fly without a runway, so we'll assume you transfer them to Cooktown also (range becomes a factor again)

The A-24's, well, we'll just not talk about them. All they provide is comic relief to any fighters.

The P-39D's are almost useful as bombers, but you need them for CAP duties.

You can shuffle in more fighters from Townsville (1 turn) and Brisbase -> Townsville (2 turns), but if you fly them after an extreme range transfer, they will all die.

Your air power cannot BOTH suppress Lae and bomb the Japan navy. You must choose which you want to do. Due to Lae's small size, it repairs much quicker then PM. Remember it takes longer to damage bigger bases, but once damaged, they take MUCH longer to repair.

Am I missing some magic aircraft that you have hidden away? For each pilot killed during this, the Army pilot pool shifts closer towards giving out skill 30's pilots which are not even worth putting in planes.

At the same time, PM is being harrassed, which means that each unit is becoming fatigued then disabled, which erodes the base unit and engineers at a constant rate which (a) reduces repairs and (b) reduces the number of air support.

Yep, you can race a base unit up to try and help counter this problem, but thats using transport abilities for non-combat troops which in the long run makes you weaker, not stronger.

You make a comment about Gili Gili ... makes me wonder. Why on earth would Japan waste troops and resources on Gili Gili (giving you a nice training target) when the goal is PM. Gili Gili can be taken and built AFTER PM has been taken. Placing troops their or Buin prior to PM is simply a total waste of resources. As long as PM exists, these are death traps and training spots for Allied aircraft.

Best thing for GG is to drop both ML's worth of mines there on turn 2 just to make yourself not get any silly ideas about taking it

Japan's engineers are far to slow in building bases to use them for that purpose early in the opening moves. They are better used in attack, reducing fortifications to allow better combat odds.

You mention how long Japan's CV's can remain on station. Japan has 2 5k Tankers at game start. Japan has fuel stock in Lae. A skilled Japan player can even use his CL's as tankers to bring fuel from Rabaul to the CV's. I don't see a fuel problem at all which means the CV's can stay on station as long as needed. Japan also gets a huge influx of tankers/oilers very early in the game which resolves this situation. (personally, I'd love to see supplies/fuel player controllable as I do not agree with levels in the game at ALL. It is the ONLY reason that Japan can actually pull this off!)

Your final comment: Which I love

The important point that seems lost on you is that the commander makes a huge difference in the application of the capabilities and resources. I maintain that I can do it, and would guess that some of the real UV USN heavyweights can do the same.

Mathematics is an exact science (also known as logistics in military games). Individual results may vary due to local effects, but correct operational planning allows for these varied results which removes them from the equation.

Application of these Mathematics (logistics) = player skill.

Wars are won by logistics not individual tactics. If you need an object lesson, the Ardennes or poor Rommel (Africa) are great examples of fantastic tactics without logistics. They will achieve short term gains, but suffer long term losses.

Holding PM is a very short term gain. I am not advocating giving it away free of charge, I simply maintain that you can not hold it in an equal skill match. Since recon missions tell me exactly how many units (INF) you have committed to defend PM, it also tells me exactly how many INF units you have committed elsewhere as they are a very small FINITE number and take a minimum of 2 transports (normally 3) transports to relocate and transports move at a FINITE speed. You can perform a single air transport (INF) during this phase of the game and you can perform 2 at best fast transport (INF). This means that you can worse case for Japan move 3 units that could offer any form of surprise.

BTW:

Just as an aside, the new 2.30 rules for base units results in it now taking 9 ships in fast transport mode to swipe Efate. It can still be done easy enough ( funny enough that Rabaul starts with 9 CL/DD )

As I do not want to get these kinds of shocks, I test these things out extensively.

Japan still has the ability to take Luganville and Efate for shock value (killing two high value! base units and isolating Noumea)

This of course is one of those naughty things that can be done while you attempt to prevent PM's fall with your Navy. As with all things, you cannot be in both places at once.