Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

Well, after much coin-tossing, studying chicken bones, and chain smoking of cigars we decide its time for 10th Army to march north. We would stay longer but there are 7+ Allied divisions in the Civitavecchio beachhead and at some point they will break out to the north. Its been emotional to say farewell to the foxholes and bunkers that have been home for a year. Some had very nice sofas, arm chairs and stoves that have to be abandoned, everything more easily movable like the chandeliers and wine have been shipped ahead to the next line. The big risk is an aggressive follow up but it seems like only 1 US Armored Div is really available to put the retreat at risk. An orderly retreat is oft quoted as the toughest military operation but we try to achieve it by pivoting LI Gerbirgs corps back towards Rome while LXXXV Corps covers to the east one week longer as 305 Div had the furthest to go and could at best reach that corps flank. Fingers crossed for phase 2.... QBall should be overjoyed at least. But if he really wanted it earlier he could have fought for it

[John B.]

Probably a wise choice. Don't count on miracles until you really need to.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: John B.

Probably a wise choice. Don't count on miracles until you really need to.

There was an almost overwhelming curiosity to see how long could hold, but I think while I can contain the beachhead for a bit we can't for too long. Depending on how you calculate it I think the city VPs we avoided getting scored against us from Siena to Rome were probably worth about 170 or so for 1944 to date and every turn longer is something like 38cp/12? (Not sure current multiplier, not got the manual open) so certainly worth pushing my luck a little bit, but not to the extent that I blow it and give him an open goal to bust through to north Italy and hoover up those cities.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 69 - 21 October 44

First a look at Italy as thats quite simple. Now 10th Army is (probably) in the clear then 14th Army rolls back the perimeter and the whole Army Group look to stage as orderly retreat as possible. Probably good timing as the beachhead now contains 9+divisions so he was poised for a breakout for sure. Mission accomplished to draw more units back to Italy at least. Particular attention to the passes to try to make sure he doesn't cut across the spine but at least in the mountains already the mud is starting to appear. The Italia brigade 'volunteers' to stay behind in Rome. Holding out here another week for an few extra VPs and diverting the pursuit a bit is probably worth the losses.

[Gunnulf]

In other southern news the Franco-Italian passes look a bit more secure as the rebuild 6 FJ show up. Still not going to be able to take this sector for granted though but at least the majority of his mountain troops are strung out here and unavailable to pressure the Gothic line. The Luftwaffe continue 'Fall Zwiebel' against Marseille but adding railyards to the target list. End of week recce reports the port at 74% damage and 70% for the railyards which is satisfactory if close to true. No idea if this is contributing to problems, it really doesn't seem like it but it can't hurt and our losses are fairly light.

Meanwhile Allied losses from bombing the Reich and interdiction continue at a similar pace as they have recently. Much more overall from operational losses than anything our fighters or flak achieve I think, but he does tend to ride they fairly hard. Our fighter losses are higher than trainees coming into the system but the boost from new gruppes that appear and get disbanded and assimilated keep the total day fighter above 1.5k so far...

[Gunnulf]

The real danger is in the centre of the North west frontier. With disappointing ease QBall cracks the seigfried line like its not even there and is into Germany for the first time. Its still on a fairly limited front from a crisis perspective but he also makes gains north of the Ardennes too, though we hold a couple of attacks. We need to take a moment to think about what to do here next. The Rhine is still behind us but we are not filled with confidence that will hold long so would rather delay pulling back here. Too much stubbornness will see his armour flood through this gap though and start getting encirclements. We have saved 50+ APs ready to build a line on the Rhine and nows probably time to get started on that though really we need a few units to dig that in. However whatever we do he will always be able to pick a point and throw everything at this and get across somewhere. We have to keep reminding ourselves that we are actually supposed to lose obviously

Suggestions welcome. Scribble them on the back of a ration box and send to OKW at Berlin.

[EwaldvonKleist]

Suggestions welcome. Scribble them on the back of a ration box and send to OKW at Berlin.

Wait for the "Wunderwaffen" of course! There is no doubt they will turn the war.
Thanks again for this entertaining AAR.

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Suggestions welcome. Scribble them on the back of a ration box and send to OKW at Berlin.

Wait for the "Wunderwaffen" of course! There is no doubt they will turn the war.
Thanks again for this entertaining AAR.

Ah yes, the wonder-weapons the boss keeps mentioning. The only thing so far we wonder about the wonder weapons is when they will show up... We have about 50 operational Me262s over Berlin which do ok, but otherwise its really down to the plucky lansers with a panzerfaust and a tot of schnapps that is holding this show together.
Oh, and the weather machine which this time we turn the dial to heavy rain, and magically the bombing stops!

Turn 70 - 28 Oct 44

Heavy rain stops the allied air, not a single bomb is dropped for the first time in ages. The fighting on the ground is fairly limited too. Only 4 attacks in the Pfalz sector and one of those is held. No doubt this is still the danger zone but at least its still limited. Allied supply crunch? Only QBall knows and when I probe he keeps stum calling Opsec, quite rightly.
We are forced to roll back the line in Alsace but into good defensive terrain and all eyes are definately on Pfalz for now. The defences on the Rhein are started and we manage to siphon off divisons from 1 Army to help dig them in. They will certainly be needed before too long I think, but, fingers crossed should hold until spring. Maybe...

[Gunnulf]

In Italy the pursuit starts, and the Allies reach the gates of Rome, but no fighting yet. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall next week. But the heavy rain is forecast to hit Italy next week and with it almost certainly heavy mud. We could probably hold south of the Gothic line if we wanted but I'm not sure there is too much benefit really.
No further probes on the Franco-Italian alps sector and seems like we are going to be settling in for winter before too long.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 71 - 4 Nov 44

A few dangerous developments in the ardennes sector. Clearly his logistics are allowing widespread attacks still and he was just taking a pause to catch his breath. A two pronged attack from north and south temporarily isolates a few divisions in the pocket but its pretty loose and all but 1 division will probably be able to break out with relative ease. Also an assault southeast of Nijmegen pushes back 18 LW div and the allies manage to get 27 Br Arm Bde across but will just 2CV strength its pretty easy to counterattack out again. 600 allied casualties on the way in and 1000 casualties on the way back make it a nice tally in an already fairly costly turn.
The allies inch the line eastwards both sides of the Maas but again at a cost with a couple of deadly holds, 2 assaults and 2.4k casualties alone to push back Pz Lehr. Its all one way but slowly and we are buying time for Hauck Korps to dig in on the far bank of Rhine, and of course the weather is getting progressively worse in our favour.
Finally the allies press home a bloody attack east of Maastrict against 21 Pz, which is pushed back at a cost of another 2k+ allied casualties. This does endanger the troops defending the riverline to the north so no doubt we need to re-configure this too.

[Gunnulf]

Here is the current state of the VP balance as of last count. Still slipping slowly to the left in our favour (helped this time by the V-weapons unusually scoring some negatives for us). No doubt it will continue to do so until QBall can start getting the big German city payoffs, 200VP for Essen for example, depending what it costs him to get there of course. There is still loads of time left on the clock and he is edging forward. We could get a collapse at any point I'm sure but every one of these cities we can prevent him reaching is going to be important. If he hadn't done such a fantastic job on his bombing campaign throughout we'd be in better shape points-wise but he racked up hundreds more than I'd be capable of, though I think to balance that out we have stopped him scoring 100-200 probably by a fairly successful Italian defense. Its good that with the new scoring system he can't just sit back and bomb to victory, he certainly can't take his foot off the pedal if he wants better than a draw. I still would bet on QBall getting a well deserved minor victory but I'll hopefully make him work for it.

[Gunnulf]

No action in Italy, and no bombing of Marseille by the Luftwaffe due to heavy rain (strange for the shoe to be on the other foot for once!). Qball does launch one probing attack in the mountains west of Turin but its a firm hold.
I could hold this Italian front for a while I think but its is vulnerable to an outflanking landing again. Its saving a few city locations, but small fry in the grand scheme of things. Mostly we are just being awkward for the sake of it I think
The line is 21 hexes long and we could shorten this to 13 by getting back to Pisa-Rimini but we'd still need to hold back a reserve in case of a landing at the top of the Adriatic. I think we have a couple of weeks before we need to stay or go though.

[Gunnulf]

A quick look at the Alpine front. As you can see on one side QBall has sent what has to be most of his mountain troops, many broken down into battalions. On the German side it is anything from FJ divisions (albeit rebuilt non-elite ones) to security regiments. A rag-tag bunch but still holding so far in key places a generating decent defensive CV. Toulon still holding with 2 regiments (42CV) and of course Nice is secure. Marseille gets a rest but its taken a battering the past weeks if we can believe the PR reports at all. He has fighters flying but not as many as I would expect and our losses in achieving this damage have been reasonable. Its not like the bombers have much else to be doing right now...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 72 - 11 Nov 44

Things starting to get a bit brittle in the Pfalz sector. It would make sense to pull back to the Rhine already but we could do with another week of digging back there, and all delays generally are good, so long as not too costly obviously... The longer we can keep him from building up to cross the river the better. Manpower is still hanging on at 32k with some replacements trickling through and another couple of fresh divisions deployed. The hexes gained cost QBall 20VP for another slight negative shift overall.

[Gunnulf]

The southern half of the western front is a bit more stable. Some pressure around Saarbrucken but its looking relatively secure for the moment with defense in depth too. Meanwhile Alsace and the Belfort gap are yet to be attacked at all really. We might be slightly over-committing here marginally but having a north and south flank secure is no bad thing and at least there is no doubt where his attack is going next turn, and the one after that. And the one after that.

Italy and the alps unchanged, and the bombing of Marseilles recommences.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

The southern half of the western front is a bit more stable. Some pressure around Saarbrucken but its looking relatively secure for the moment with defense in depth too. Meanwhile Alsace and the Belfort gap are yet to be attacked at all really. We might be slightly over-committing here marginally but having a north and south flank secure is no bad thing and at least there is no doubt where his attack is going next turn, and the one after that. And the one after that.

Italy and the alps unchanged, and the bombing of Marseilles recommences.

..

You're doing a good job on stalling him and making him shed VPs. The only worry is its likely he'll arrive at the Rhine when its frozen - but hard to see what you can do about that?

Unless of course you have a massive counterattack planned that you are not sharing with us in the images?

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: loki100

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

The southern half of the western front is a bit more stable. Some pressure around Saarbrucken but its looking relatively secure for the moment with defense in depth too. Meanwhile Alsace and the Belfort gap are yet to be attacked at all really. We might be slightly over-committing here marginally but having a north and south flank secure is no bad thing and at least there is no doubt where his attack is going next turn, and the one after that. And the one after that.

Italy and the alps unchanged, and the bombing of Marseilles recommences.

..

You're doing a good job on stalling him and making him shed VPs. The only worry is its likely he'll arrive at the Rhine when its frozen - but hard to see what you can do about that?

Unless of course you have a massive counterattack planned that you are not sharing with us in the images?

Every available man woman and child is drinking beer by the gallon and relieving themselves in the Rhine to try to keep the temperature above freezing but yes I fear it might not be enough. The focus I think has to be to get as solid a defense line there as possible whatever the weather. But the reality seems of course he will cross somewhere.

As to the counter-attack... We'll have to see... I've had a few suitably crazy thoughts

[John B.]

you are almost to the stage of remembering that cardboard, or electrons in this case, doesn't bleed so sacrificing some units to buy time does not result in more widows and orphans. [:)] I like the idea of you contemplating some wild and crazy scheme. Remember that Grant said that he was tired of his staff worrying about what Robert E. Lee was going to do to them and he wanted them to start worrying about what they were going to do to Robert E. Lee.

From Qballs point of view I'll bet he's a little frustrated -- I'm not reading any of his posts so this is pure speculation on my part -- that he came ashore so early and it's a VP grind in the bad weather while he lost points in Italy by waiting so long.

[Gunnulf]

Overall frustrating was what I was aiming for for sure The biggest problem with coming up with a crazy scheme right now is the question of to what strategic end? Seems to me there are a few possible aims; to disrupt his logistics - i.e. deny him an important port or rail junction. Or to regain city VP points. Or to force him to divert forces from his main thrust. With regards to the first we are already denying him Antwerp by blocking the river, we have reduced Marseilles flow by half through bombing, and we are holding significant atlantic and channel ports. There aren't too many other objectives in this category that we can see right now. To the second there are of course cities everywhere we might try to take back but I'm not sure any clusters justify being the primary aim of a counterattack right now. With the exception of Rome maybe... And finally to divert forces from the main thrust. QBall does have a bit of a habit of stripping sectors to the minimum in order to focus his efforts, but with the exception of a few hexes here and there on balance he seems to have enough to prevent a disaster. In Alsace he is certainly doing this, but has enough to hold I think, and there are few targets really behind the line to justify us weakening the line in Pfalz enough to make an offensive successful. Its tempting to consider though and we are continuing to give some thoughts to all options...

Turn 73 - 18 Nov 44

On the subject of Pfalz some sweeping advances here just before the heavy mud starts to appear, and its probably now time to get back behind the Rhine. Also a huge 150k assault on Saarbrucken sees it fall this week. The rest of the line here is still in reasonable shape.
Elsewhere Italy is still as we last saw it as winter settles in.

[Gunnulf]

After a slight re-adjustment of the front line (not a retreat, honest) we make an attempt to consolidate on the Rhine. Its in no way ideal, not yet as dug in as we might like but now before the river freezes then maybe there is just enough CV strength, just enough fortification to hold for a bit. I guess we'll find out before too long. West of Essen we have to rely on Monchen Gladbach to be a bit of a barrier to the Allies forcing a wedge between the rivers. Several new divisions arrive and are in the process of feeding into the front, and we might soon be in a position to extract a few battered panzer divisions to refit a bit.
We do decide to abandon Trier without a fight though, its going to shorten the line a bit and reduce the risk of losing the divisions here.