MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets



Not really necessary.

The USSR is on the defensive (duh). There aren't going to be any paradrops. If the Para lives it will probably part of the defensive line in the mountains southeast of where it is now. The ATR should be centrally placed so it can do something useful later in the turn. While it might be able to do something useful right now, I suspect that there will be an even more crying need for it later.

If you are going with what I suggested, it might be helpful to post a screen shot of that before committing to it. Other readers might see some glaring omission that I missed.

Okay. I thought you were aiming to get a drop on Odessa or Constanta or something like that, in order to put the German lines OOS or take back a city for the Soviets.

I will post a shot of what you've created. It looks a little nerve-wracking with a lot of MECH stacked together in the south near Kharkov. In the North, either Vologda or Yaraslov is going to fall on Impulse #5, unless a unit railed to one of these. That opens up the back door to Moscow, and with all of those fast units up North, I worry about the Soviets getting surrounded near the Don. I don't know if there is any way around it, though.
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Edit: The PARA isn't in Krasnodar yet because the Air Transport phase hasn't happened yet.
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2nd Edit: If they desired it, the Soviets could make a 40:6 BlitZ attack on the German LII MECH west of Kharkov here. That's 6:1 with a 67% chance at 7:1 odds. Unfortunately, the Germans could add some Ground Support to make it a 40:11 attack, and that's 3:1 with a 64% shot at 4:1 odds. The Blitz Bonus rules make this a +1 attack for the Soviets. That would be great at 6:1, but doesn't help them enough if the Germans get Ground Support on the hex.

Rats. I had missed that the 2-6 armor could make the attack on the AA a blitz.

The Stalino Mil has to go to the hex NE of Kiev, accompanied by the AA.

Maybe the AA can be saved instead - moving to Kiev. But that is only if the Germans have no unit capable of overrunning the Stalino Mil alone in the hex after it is disorganized by a ground strike. The German 8-6 Mech can't make it and neither can Rundstedt. But I don't know what is under some of the other units.

The important hex the USSR has to keep clear of enemy ZOC is the one SW of Bryansk. That will let 2 corps escape unless the Germans ground strike/attack them.

The Vologda unit has to move to Yaroslavl. From there it should be able stay a live for another impulse or two.

In bold, I'm not sure what you're talking about. Kiev MIL? or Kiev the city? The city is already gone.

To answer the question, there is nobody that can overrun the Stalino MIL now, but there is an 18 factor MECH/ARM stack that can join with the ART Division to overrun a 3 factor unit in 2 impulses.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Sorry. I meant Kursk. If the Stalino Mil can't be overrun, then the AA should move to Kursk (a strategic reserve).[:D]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Sorry. I meant Kursk. If the Stalino Mil can't be overrun, then the AA should move to Kursk (a strategic reserve).[:D]

Gotcha. Here's what that looks like:
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Edit: I'd say the odds are a Ground Strike on the units east of Gomel, and possibly one of the 2 ARM/MECH hexes near Kharkov.

[Red Prince]

Settled on the above for the Soviet defenses. The USA rebased a FTR and NAV so that they could reach the Coral Sea and The Solomons, and the USSR didn't end up using Timoshenko to reorganize units. He may still be able to escape by rail.

The Fine weather didn't hold in the N. Monsoon zone, of course. This helps some in the Allied effort to clear out the Arabian Sea, taking the Japanese CVP out of the equation, so I'm glad I didn't try to break out of Aden last impulse. It is going to make finding he enemy more difficult, though.

The weather for Impulse #3:

[Red Prince]

Once again (3 times in a row now), the Japanese SUB fleet couldn't find the CW convoys . . . but the German bombers have stopped celebrating winning the initiative, and they are back on track with a Ground Strike east of Gomel:

[Red Prince]

4 attacks this impulse for the Germans, the middle two are Blitz attacks. The only attack that is mostly safe for Soviet Ground Support is the attack on Kalinin. None of them are actually worth it, though (I think). The attack on Kalinin could put a temporary halt to the Northern German forces by disorganizing 5 units (2 x MECH, 1 x INF, 1 x MIL, 1 x ART), but it might do that anyway.
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Edit: The Stalino attack could be supported by 6 factors, making this a 5:1 +1 Assault, but that can be intercepted at +4/-3 odds. It would require 2 LND and a FTR, and it would only have value if both got through. Not likely, I'd say. If it did work, that gives a 40% chance of disorganizing 10 units (about 20% of the German forces) early in the turn, but I'm chicken . . . I don't think it's worth the risk.
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So, no Ground Support.

The attack on the Stalino MIL is interesting. It is a Blitz attack (German choice), but if the ARM Division and the 6-6 MECH involved in this attack advance beyond the target hex, they end up OOS. However, I can keep them under FTR cover, and I can also rebase a 6-factor FTR to the area if I need to. I'll probably advance them into 2 different hexes. At best, the USSR can Ground Strike with 3 factors, and if they aren't together, they'd have to use 2 LND. Even if they only try for the MECH, it's the weakest of the German mechanized Corps, and an attack or overrun would put some Soviets out of position for the defensive, I think.

Anyway, here is what I have set up:

[Red Prince]

So, here are the attacks:



And the results:

Attack on Stalino: Assault, Roll = 2+1 = 3 = */2S
Attack on USSR [51, 57]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .336 (Yes), Roll = 9+1 = 10 = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [46, 59]: Blitz, Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on Kalinin: Assault, Roll = 2 = -/1S

The odds are finally catching up to the Germans. The attack on Kalinin did disorganize the northern attack force, which probably gives Moscow an impulse of extra security. That's all, though, since Rommel can get up there next impulse to reorganize 20-24 factors out of the 32 factors that attacked Kalinin. In the meantime, Mannerhiem can take his place on the Central Front, since it doesn't require a fast HQ. Also, once the next German land moves are made, both HQ-I von Leeb and HQ-I von Bock can get back onto the front lines.

Nothing else here was unexpected.
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As the Russians, I'm glad I didn't waste any Ground Support (and/or aircraft) to try to reduce the odds at Kalinin. It looks like it would have been worthwhile at Stalino, but that's after the fact. Who could guess that both Assaults would end up with such low rolls? Particularly the way the Germans have been getting lucky.

[Red Prince]

The Germans sent 2 Stukas to the front lines to join Rommel and Rundstedt, and sent the ATR to the new location of the German paratrooper (see the Soviet Lines images in a short while for that).

Italy used its Air Mission to reorganize the MTN unit next to Teheran, and Japan used up Yamashita's reorganization points to get the 2 transports and a light cruiser moving again in Cocanada. He arrived from Tokyo on one of those transports this impulse.
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In the next hour or so, I'll have fresh pictures of the Soviet "problem", with some choices I made for the Germans that might seem a little strange . . . or not.

[composer99]

Someone should move into the mountains to contain the Japanese beachhead. Yes, there's only an HQ which is now disorganized; nevertheless the sooner the containment is set up the harder it will be for them to break out.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Someone should move into the mountains to contain the Japanese beachhead. Yes, there's only an HQ which is now disorganized; nevertheless the sooner the containment is set up the harder it will be for them to break out.

Those units only managed to get that close last impulse due to the Fine weather. Right now it's Stormy weather in this part of the world, and it isn't likely to get better than Rain again this turn. I'd love to move somebody up, but if I'm going to try to do all the things that need to be done: convoys, Americans to Archangel, invasion of France, clearing the Arabian Sea . . . well, there's no room for Land Actions, and very little (if any) room for Combined Actions for the CW this turn. Sorry. Have to prioritize.

[Red Prince]

I've got a series of 4 images to show. The first one is a degraded full-front shot of what the Soviets face. I'll talk about individual items in the next three shots.

[Red Prince]

North of Kursk, a rotten roll disorganized the Moscow offensive, but there are several units that can still get there next impulse, and swapping Mannerheim with Rommel should keep most of the front in supply. That will let Rommel reorganize the troops after Impulse #5, giving them enough time to collect Moscow and lands beyond.

The Ground Strike east of Gomel means that MOT and MECH are probably in some serious trouble, unless the Soviets try to make a multi-hex stand from that hex all the way to Tula. The trouble with that is that it doesn't take advantage of the breathing room that they now have to pull back behind the Don. With Mannerheim and von Leeb (see next image) having to close the hole Rommel will create, the Germans can't easily project their power beyond Bryansk next impulse without ending up OOS. This may be the best opportunity for the Soviets to retreat in an organized manner.

Of course, there's always the chance that Rommel and Mannerheim won't switch positions. It all depends on what the USSR makes available for the taking, I guess.

[Red Prince]

South of Kursk, I pulled the ARM and MOT out of the Kerch straits position, replacing them with the Paratrooper and his ATR. This brings 2 more strong units back into position to make a grab for Kharkov. The Berlin MIL and the 6-4 INF should be enough to bottle up Sevastopol until it's time to take that hex. Also coming in to this front, seen in the inserted image, are the 9-5 MECH and 9-5 ARM that came in as reinforcements this turn at Breslau. These 4 units should significantly strengthen this front, particularly the weaker parts around Kiev.

The Soviets are still strong on the Ukrainian border, but they are very vulnerable. If they don't get behind the Don soon, they may find themselves sitting in 2 pockets, near Moscow and near Rostov/Voronezh, and not defending a "front" at all. I suppose it's possible that Koniev could use the O-chit to counter-attack somewhere, but I don't know if or where it would be most useful. He could probably get rid of Rundstedt doing this (and maybe a few other units, too), and then he could reorganize up to 8 land units, but basically it would result in trading an HQ for an HQ. I don't think that's a good trade.

[Red Prince]

Finally, in Persia, the 2nd MECH Division in Tabriz is just bait. Can you hear them begging the Soviets to attack? Meanwhile, Italy is building up for an attack on Teheran to liberate the Persian people. They'll be able to make a decent attack in 2 impulses, and if Germany helps out, they can make a pretty good attack at that point. For Italy, all that matters is that the INF in Teheran dies. It would be wonderful to take over Persia this turn, but if it means waiting until S/O '41 to get the job done, that's just fine with Italy.

The Japanese fleet in the Arabian Sea is still pretty strong, even if you don't include the Air-to-Sea factors of the CVP (Storm), so it's unlikely that the Allies will be able to dislodge them in the coming impulse. That means supply in this part of the world should be safe for another impulse or two.

[Red Prince]

About the invasion of France . . .

I played this last impulse as if the Axis had no idea an invasion might come this turn, but as soon as a loaded transport and/or cruiser moves into the Bay of Biscay, the Axis is going to react to the threat. Now, there are a number of logistical problems with putting together an invasion this turn:

The Americans need this impulse (#4) to be a Combined, so that Eisenhower can make it part of the way from Plymouth to Bristol (where a CW transport is waiting). They need another Combined Action for impulse #6 to get him the rest of the way there. Impulse #8 has to be a Naval Action, in conjunction with the CW, so that the "new and improved" convoy pipeline gets set up. The transport that is carrying Eisenhower can also move to the Arctic during this impulse. If/when impulse #10 comes, the United States will need a final Combined or Land Action to debark Eisenhower into Archangel. This is the point in the turn when they should be starting to Pass, though, so that's the last thing they'll be able to do.

Yes, each Combined Action allows 3 naval moves for the USA, and 4 Land Moves. So, this impulse I could use the 4 land moves on the Marine and 2 Divisions to make the attack in France (using a CW TRS for the MAR, and maybe even the divisions), and the last move goes to Eisenhower. For naval moves, the CW will move the first unit into the Arabian Sea, so that the rest of the fleet can leave Aden while in supply. That's 1 move for the Americans . . . Aden to Arabian sea. But which of the other units will I move this impulse? I have a transport loaded with a MTN Corps that needs to get to Port Moresby sooner rather than later, and HQ-I Nimitz is currently sitting out in the middle of the N. Atlantic with a small escort fleet. While it may not matter much, if I don't put some ships in the Bay of Biscay, I'll need to use CW Shore Bombardment for the invasion, and that means a -1 on the die roll. After the invasion, I won't have any way to expand into France. I won't have an HQ available, and the remaining CW transports are going to need to head for the E. Coast to pick up some more Americans.

So, do I invade or not?
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More information on the question in the next post . . .

[Red Prince]

This shows what is scheduled to arrive next turn. If the American beachhead can't expand -- or even if it can -- those troops are going to be heading directly for it. Not counting the INF from Finland, that's 37 factors of blitzing Germans arriving. While they could be put to better use in the USSR, it would take them at least 3-4 impulses to reach the front, and the S/O '41 turn could easily be over by then.

On the other hand, it would take just 2-3 impulses to reach the American Marine and his companions. Sure, those units can pull out before the Germans arrive, but do you think once a landing has been made that Germany is going to vacate the area again? It seems to me that an invasion now would just be tipping the Allied hand. Better to wait until you can be sure you can stick around for a while. The point of the invasion is to get troops to withdraw from the USSR. That just isn't going to happen, I don't think.

So, do I make the invasion or not?

[Red Prince]

Here's a look at the units the Soviet Union has already lost this turn, with those that are unlikely to be available to build again crossed out.


The USSR has 40 land units left on the map: 34 Corps and 6 Divisions. They total 195 factors.

1 unit in Teheran = 4 factors
3 units in Leningrad = 14 factors
1 unit in Siberia = 2 factors
2 units in Sevastopol = 7 factors
7 units on Persian border = 31 factors
5 units disorganized = 25 factors

19 units committed or disorganized = 83 factors (17 Corps, 2 Divisions)
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Which means that 21 units can still actively retreat from their positions: 17 Corps, 4 Divisions. They total 112 factors.

1 unit in Yaroslavl = 4 factors
2 units for Moscow = 13 factors
2 units for the Kerch region = 9 factors
2 units in Rostov = 10 factors

7 units holding key cities = 36 factors (6 Corps, 1 Division)
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And that leaves 14 units that can still retreat: 11 Corps, 3 Divisions. They total 76 factors.

[composer99]

The Germans are a bit short on corps in the Ukraine. Also, it looks like they have only 1 organized Stuka on the front and 1 organized twin-engine FTR3 that can intercept groundstrikes this impulse (there are two organized FTR2 by the sea of Azov but they have to fly CAP).

IMO the Germans must CAP Rundstet this Allied impulse. If they don't, the USSR must groundstrike him.

Also, IMO, if the bulk of those Germans coming as reinforcements set up to blast the Allied invaders in France, they'll spend all of S/O 1941 heading to the beachhead. The Allies bug out and they spend the winter redeploying to the Eastern Front (or redeploying to other theatres the Allies threaten, such as Spain or Morocco). Those Germans basically lose a turn of utility. That kind of nuisance is exactly what the Western Allies need to be perpetrating in 1941-1942 while they don't have the strength to land somewhere in force.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The Germans are a bit short on corps in the Ukraine. Also, it looks like they have only 1 organized Stuka on the front and 1 organized twin-engine FTR3 that can intercept groundstrikes this impulse (there are two organized FTR2 by the sea of Azov but they have to fly CAP).

IMO the Germans must CAP Rundstet this Allied impulse. If they don't, the USSR must groundstrike him.

Also, IMO, if the bulk of those Germans coming as reinforcements set up to blast the Allied invaders in France, they'll spend all of S/O 1941 heading to the beachhead. The Allies bug out and they spend the winter redeploying to the Eastern Front (or redeploying to other theatres the Allies threaten, such as Spain or Morocco). Those Germans basically lose a turn of utility. That kind of nuisance is exactly what the Western Allies need to be perpetrating in 1941-1942 while they don't have the strength to land somewhere in force.

To tell you the truth, even if the Allies were not going to make a landing in Europe, I probably would only send a few of those Corps off to the front anyway. As the Germans, I know I need some more support down in the Iberian peninsula.

It may not be much, but even if the Soviet bombers do get through to Rundstedt, there is a heavy AA gun waiting to decrease their chances at hitting anything sitting in the hex SE of his. If only 1 LND tries for the strike, he gets the lowest of 5 dice, I think. If the Soviets try to hit 2 stacks, he can still get the lowest of 6 dice on each of them. The Germans are probably willing to take that chance. Yes, it disorganizes a nice division, but it would be worth it. I probably wouldn't fly CAP as the Germans.
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Edit: By the way, the Germans may be a little short, but they still have just about a 2:1 advantage in Corps in the Ukraine. It's relative, I guess.

[Orm]

So, do I make the invasion or not?

Not.