Hairy Asian Experiences - GreyJoy (J) vs. Q-Ball (A)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: veji1

I think CrSutton underestimates the impact of stacking limits. With Stacking limits Greyjoy's strategy is the right one. It is manpower intensive though, but normally to break through in on hex, the allies will need a few weeks of attack and that gives enough time to retreat. As often with Burma the problem is that as soon as the jungle is abandoned, the plains are lost.

Of course the back door has to be protected, but it looks to be the case, at least as much as possible.

I really think stacking limits makes forward defense in rough terrain in Burma the most sensible strategy, and a viable one for quite some time.

You are right, I forgot about the stacking limits and how they affect combat. But Pegu is open terrain is it not? Could the Allies put four divisions ashore there along with strong tank support? I would if it could be done....But GJ is pretty good at reading Q-Ball so his own intel is important. If the Allies are not shifting assets to India-meaning lots of American units and assault ships, then he is fairly safe for a while.

Well, yes, probably if he lands 90,000 men at Pegu he can break my lines... but he first needs to get there. The US CVs were in the Solomons untill 6 days ago. All his landing ships are there AFAIK...most of them anyway. My early warning system is pretty extended by now. I have more than 54 Nells and 18 Emilies, along with some 8 Dinah-IIIs covering the whole Bengal Bay and with arcs from Colombo to Cocos... i will see him coming with not less than 4-5 days. What can i do in those 5 days? Well, i can mass all my LBA reserves, even moving a lot of planes from the Pacific and i can strat rail 1 division in reserve at Mandalay. Not much, i know, but what shall i do? Probably 90,000 americans aren't stoppable in open terrain even if i had 5 divisions...and i cannot have 5 divisions dug in in every possible landing site.
I wouldn't choose Pegu if i was him. Western Sumatra is much more interesting and it's on the border of my defensive line, not in the middle!

[GreyJoy]

Aug 18-19, 43

Days are running fast lately, with not much happening.

The Japs have abbandoned the idea of defending Rabaul and New Britain, so the Allies are rushing in everywhere they could.
on the 17th a Motorized Bde landed at Finishtafen, which was empty. His fighters are already covering the skies over there and his troops are now marching to Lae in a piercing movement with the Australian Division arriving from Terapo.
We are doing our best to save what we can. Most of the Aviation support has been lifted out and we're now trying to save a couple of Bdes left behind.

In the last two days we managed to fought back a but, ambushing the american bombers in two different locations.
At first, 30 Georges and 15 Zeros ambushed the usual daily bombing run at Tarawa (they take off from Tabiutea), killing some 27 enemy planes (F4F3s and B-25Cs mostly), losing only a couple of Zeros.
Then, on the 19th, a group of 90 Japanese fighters (KI-45s, KI-44s and N1K1s) ambushed the 4Es over Aitape. We downed 15 Liberators and 14 P-38s, losing only 2 Nicks. Nothing to write home about, but these little battles keep my morale up and i hope that make Brad feel a bit less confident.

My KB (well, basically only 6 CVs plus 3 CVLs) are stationing in the middle of the ocean west of Rabaul. We are ready to move to the DEI but i'm not fully convinced yet. Haven't spotted the american CVs at Darwin...and i really don't know where are they...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Aitape , at 95,118

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 22
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 59
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 24

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 9
B-24D Liberator x 9
B-24D1 Liberator x 48
P-38E Lightning x 12
P-38G Lightning x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-45 KAIa Nick: 1 destroyed
Ki-57-II Topsy: 3 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 3 destroyed, 10 damaged
P-38E Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-38G Lightning: 2 destroyed

Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 24




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Aitape , at 95,118

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 12
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 36
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 7

Allied aircraft
B-24D1 Liberator x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D1 Liberator: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged

[obvert]

Is he not sweeping in front of these attacks? Against Jocke I'd be losing a good half of those 90 planes you put up from 3-5 P-47 and Corsair sweeps, and then getting maybe a few 4E in the end. he would be much better off using those P-38s as sweepers in fact. Keep making him pay if he's being lazy.

[JocMeister]

Yeah, using P38s for escorts? Thats the same as giving them away! Bonkers! [X(]

[GreyJoy]

He does sweep, but i tend to pick up my battles. I let him sweep and bombs for some days/weeks without interfering, then, when he gets lazy, i try to jump on him.
Over Tarawa he's being bombing for months now... at first he always swept...then, when he decided he needed his best fighters in other places, he moved them away, and left just some escorts...
Same here at Aitape. it's the only strategy that works at the moment. I cannot fight at even terms...i have to ambush him when i can in order to minimize the losses

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

He does sweep, but i tend to pick up my battles. I let him sweep and bombs for some days/weeks without interfering, then, when he gets lazy, i try to jump on him.
Over Tarawa he's being bombing for months now... at first he always swept...then, when he decided he needed his best fighters in other places, he moved them away, and left just some escorts...
Same here at Aitape. it's the only strategy that works at the moment. I cannot fight at even terms...i have to ambush him when i can in order to minimize the losses

It's the only way, I agree. I still get nailed though about half of the time I ambush. Jocke doesn't get lazy often! [;)]

It's an interesting problem for the Allies. Do you diversify attacks and become vulnerable? Do you concentrate and become predictable? As the Japanese side we have to have counters for both and be on our toes watching all of the time. Doing turns quickly while traveling lately I certainly realized how much attention is needed for some of these details and predictions.

[GreyJoy]

21.08.1943
 
Brad is really running in SOPAC.... a full division landed at Arawe today, while more troops are landing east of Rabaul... i spotted several more APAs...and BBs in support...but decided not to rush in with my CVs. I need to cover my retreat now and estabilish a new perimeter. No time for risking a carrierClash in enemy's waters.
 
In Burma things are heating up. Thre columns with more than 150,000 enemies are pushing towards the front. We're shifting our units hoping to hold... if the lines breaks... Burma is lost
 
In NG we're assembling a very strong defensive perimeter.
 
Vanimo has 700 AVs, behind 5 forts (jungle), composed around the 1st Guards Div, the 18th Garrison Bde and 1 SNLF unit. An Artillery 150mm Regiment is in place, along with 2 AA units and several support units.
Hollandia has 350 AVs, behind 4 forts (jungle). Will raise the AV up to 600 in the next days. The 17th Army HQ has been rescued from Torokina and is now resting at Hollandia prepping.
Sarmi will soon have a full division defending it.
Biak is defended by the 56th Div and by components of different Manchurian units. Tanks, AA, Arty. All are in place.
Nomeonfor is getting the 1st Division, plus several supporting units.
...and so on.
Every spot on the coast is heavily guarded.

[GreyJoy]

Can't do more than that at the moment

[GreyJoy]

My hope is to be able to use the time for him needed to conquer the whole Bismark sea to create a fortress in northern NG, while keeping on building the Mariannas inner perimeter. I pretty curious to see what he can do against this kind of bases. Here he doesn't have many choices...he cannot simply bypass them all...so he will have to focus on some of them...and i wanna be ready when the moment will arrive.
Also a landing here on the upper eastern coast of NG will leave his right flank open....let's see.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Yeah, using P38s for escorts? Thats the same as giving them away! Bonkers! [X(]

Never use them for escort. Much better to put them on LRCAP over the target hex if you can. That is of course, only if you are playing one day turns not two.

[Cribtop]

Great game, GJ! Hang in there. I think Q will gobble up the Bougainville/Rabaul/Lae area, then be faced with more difficult choices of what to do next, as you suggest. Sounds like you will be ready when he does. If he continues to try for the DEI, expect him to choose to work his way up the NG coast to support his flank and threaten your shortest SLoC to Japan. If he abandons the DEI moves, expect him to work through the Marshalls aiming at the Kusaie triangle (Kus, Ponape and Eniwetok). Finally, as you suggest don't be surprised if he adds a third prong in Western Sumatra.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: veji1

I think CrSutton underestimates the impact of stacking limits. With Stacking limits Greyjoy's strategy is the right one. It is manpower intensive though, but normally to break through in on hex, the allies will need a few weeks of attack and that gives enough time to retreat. As often with Burma the problem is that as soon as the jungle is abandoned, the plains are lost.

Of course the back door has to be protected, but it looks to be the case, at least as much as possible.

I really think stacking limits makes forward defense in rough terrain in Burma the most sensible strategy, and a viable one for quite some time.

You are right, I forgot about the stacking limits and how they affect combat. But Pegu is open terrain is it not? Could the Allies put four divisions ashore there along with strong tank support? I would if it could be done....But GJ is pretty good at reading Q-Ball so his own intel is important. If the Allies are not shifting assets to India-meaning lots of American units and assault ships, then he is fairly safe for a while.

Well, yes, probably if he lands 90,000 men at Pegu he can break my lines... but he first needs to get there. The US CVs were in the Solomons untill 6 days ago. All his landing ships are there AFAIK...most of them anyway. My early warning system is pretty extended by now. I have more than 54 Nells and 18 Emilies, along with some 8 Dinah-IIIs covering the whole Bengal Bay and with arcs from Colombo to Cocos... i will see him coming with not less than 4-5 days. What can i do in those 5 days? Well, i can mass all my LBA reserves, even moving a lot of planes from the Pacific and i can strat rail 1 division in reserve at Mandalay. Not much, i know, but what shall i do? Probably 90,000 americans aren't stoppable in open terrain even if i had 5 divisions...and i cannot have 5 divisions dug in in every possible landing site.
I wouldn't choose Pegu if i was him. Western Sumatra is much more interesting and it's on the border of my defensive line, not in the middle!

Yes, and really "flanks" the Burma theater just as well if not better. It is the long option vs the short....

[GreyJoy]

August 23-24, 1943
 
The americans took easily Arawe and now has a solid 5 Level AF base in New Britain. Rabaul is plastered both by air and by sea. Mines aren't doing much at this point and my CD guns didn't score a single hit against BB Ramilles bombing it at night. But it's ok, as long as he takes time for him to suppress it, i can redeploy my forces.
No signs of the american CVs... i'm getting a bit scaried now...where the hell are they???
 
In the meanwhile we managed to deliver some more 10K supplies to the frontal strongholds in the southern DEI. Saumlaki got 2000 more...which is a lot! and so Taberfane and Dobo, where they were badly needed.
 
In Burma Brad is clearly launching a series of operations against my perimeter. I'm still unsure if i better retreat from Wazrup and Mitikina and shorten my perimeter... several Indian divisions are moving forward, along with some chinese monster corps... tough calls indeed.
 
In NG i managed to finish the Vanimo redeployments. Now i have a base with 30,000 troops, 650 AVs, 5 forts, some decent AAs, an air HQ and 270 AS. enough to force him to deal with it sooner or later.
Hollandia is frowing fast too... some 25,000 supplies are also arriving here in 4 days.
In the meanwhile, i bought out another regiment of the 1st Division, which will go to the Biak area.
 
Engineers are getting to the Bonins and to the Mariannas.
 
 
Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?
 

[Prydwen]

As Japan you will never do enough because you're so outnumbered. You don't have enough to cover everywhere so it's up to you to judge your opponent and his intentions so you can slow him down. Also you have to prioritize the areas that must be defended.

Joe

[obvert]

Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?

How long did it take to sail from Pearl with that Armada in 'Suddenly Hairy?' Well over a month, right?

So what you need are some forces in place, some in reserve, bases built with forts as high as possible, and enough air support to move stuff from the HI to thwart whatever comes. But more than anything you need eyes in the deep Central Pacific. A few pickets, some Emilys from the Aleutians and Marcus, maybe even an AV with Jakes sitting in the blind spot between, waiting. Rader made the mistake of not seeing you on the way. His reception would have been much more prepared if he had a few weeks notice.

No Japanese player can put enough back there to stop 10+ supported divisions landing, but if you can take a few out on the way in, there is a chance to slow that invasion enough to fight back.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?

How long did it take to sail from Pearl with that Armada in 'Suddenly Hairy?' Well over a month, right?

So what you need are some forces in place, some in reserve, bases built with forts as high as possible, and enough air support to move stuff from the HI to thwart whatever comes. But more than anything you need eyes in the deep Central Pacific. A few pickets, some Emilys from the Aleutians and Marcus, maybe even an AV with Jakes sitting in the blind spot between, waiting. Rader made the mistake of not seeing you on the way. His reception would have been much more prepared if he had a few weeks notice.

No Japanese player can put enough back there to stop 10+ supported divisions landing, but if you can take a few out on the way in, there is a chance to slow that invasion enough to fight back.

Yes, over a month, cause i brought everything with me...1280 ships...so the convoy was pretty pretty slow. But, doing it with only fast APA/AKAs could take less than 2 weeks i guess.

However yes, i'm keeping a large air strategic reserve in HI and at Hokkaido. I have 2 Air HQs in the Kuriles and the equivalent of 3 and half divisions in the Kuriles/Hokkaido. Forts are everywhere building up and the winter is coming (as the Starks say)... Picket TFs are spread everywhere south of Paramushiro...

However it's not only the Kuriles i'm worring about. The perimeter is so big... he could just be assembling 3 Marine Divisions (never seen them till now) at Perth ready to be thrown against Java or Sumatra... and my KB cannot be everywhere... hell i don't know...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ItsAMadhouse

As Japan you will never do enough because you're so outnumbered. You don't have enough to cover everywhere so it's up to you to judge your opponent and his intentions so you can slow him down. Also you have to prioritize the areas that must be defended.

Joe

So true....

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Great game, GJ! Hang in there. I think Q will gobble up the Bougainville/Rabaul/Lae area, then be faced with more difficult choices of what to do next, as you suggest. Sounds like you will be ready when he does. If he continues to try for the DEI, expect him to choose to work his way up the NG coast to support his flank and threaten your shortest SLoC to Japan. If he abandons the DEI moves, expect him to work through the Marshalls aiming at the Kusaie triangle (Kus, Ponape and Eniwetok). Finally, as you suggest don't be surprised if he adds a third prong in Western Sumatra.

Thanks Crib!

I really hope he'll take the pacific route...but i doubt it. Western Sumatra is my top choice to be honest...so many bases to be built...so far away from the Pacific struggles... no atolls....

If he comes for the Pacific... well, i have everything ready to meet him there! Fortresses everywhere

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Yeah, using P38s for escorts? Thats the same as giving them away! Bonkers! [X(]

Never use them for escort. Much better to put them on LRCAP over the target hex if you can. That is of course, only if you are playing one day turns not two.

Or use sweeps. [:)]

Personally I don´t use LRCAP much due to the insane fatigue. And one could argue that using LRCAP to protect bombers are somewhat questionable. It does circumvent the insane losses you suffer using escort.

[GreyJoy]

Aug, 25 1943
 
Brad is occupying all the bases on the straits between Finishtafen and Cape Glouchester and Arawe. Several TFs are moving in and out, bringing in troops and planes.
Enemy BBs bombed again Rabaul , followed by several 4Es, both on Rabaul and on Manus.
All this time is like gold for me! I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.
Today we also managed to land 2 regiments of the 17th Division at Sarmi, along with 2 construction BNs and 2 AA units. The 18th Garrison unit, recently saved from Salamua, will be sent there too. The KB is covering all this landings...unseen[:'(]. 30K supplies are being delivered at Hollandia. 500 fighters are covering Hollandia and Vanimo.
 
At Kusiae we managed to airlift 2 SNLF units from Tarawa. Good. Soon more supplies will be sent to Ponape and Kusiae.
 
Biak, Nomeanfor and the other closest base are being garrisoned every day. Forts are everywhere up to 5>.
 
Everything on the allied side is silent.... his CVs are nowhere to be seen. For sure he's prepping something BIG.
 
850K fuel are unloading at Sasebo as we speak. Losses in terms of TKs have been very very low. We managed to avoid his subs so far.
 
Looking good