Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

I'll give it a damn good go. If I'd massed a bit more force at the start we might have made more impact but we didnt want to give the game away, and the window before his advancing forces dug in properly was small. But we'll keep the pressure up for a while and keep him sweating, albeit lightly now I'm sure.

In the meantime one thing I was meaning to do for ages was to compare the roster of I/JG2 to one i saved back in about march 44 I think. Back then they were still riding Bf109Gs but now are in Fw190 A9s. Not a particularly elite squadron, but not too bad. However the turnover in the mess has been quite large and only 5 old comrades survive. Impressively Herr Kuhn has managed to fly 113 missions, is rated 93 experience but is yet to paint a roudel or star on his steed. Methinks someone is not pulling their weight here... Looks also like although we have been constantly set to trained pilots only then a couple of rookies have sneaked in. I must have messed up somewhere. The highest ace right now is the appropriately named V.Jaeger of I/JG3 flying Fw190 A8s with 23 confirmed kills which he has achieved in 103 missions, so he's certainly been more busy. Of special note also is Herr Briel who so far has flown 245 missions without a kill. Thats dedication to slacking off and returning to base with engine trouble for sure. Or maybe he's just a great wingman.

Incidentally across the LW we still have about 1500 day fighter pilots, but they are still fairly ineffectual in stopping the onslaught. We just switched back from AS missions to intercept to mix it up a bit and there was much activity, one particularly large battle over Magdeburg with 468 allsorted interceptors including 50 Me262s took down 42 Mustangs from a force of 152, a pretty horrendous loss rate, though we lost about 25% too in the process. Overall we can still dish out a bit of damage but we are certainly not stopping him from doing anything. QBall is really throwing in the kitchen sink though as several missions we see Mosquito NFs and Black Windows flying as day escorts for Lancasters flying more ground attack missions.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 78 - 23 Dec 44

The relentless march continues to claw chunks out of our beautifully crafted front lines. Cologne is loosely isolated but easily broken this turn though the jaws will of course close next week. Not too much we can do except continue to reconstitute the line somehow, re-order the corps to keep the C2C as optimal as possible and pray for a blizzard. A really long one. The forecast unfortunately says clear skies so no respite in sight, and to make matters worse plenty of key SS panzer divisions are rumored to transfer to the east front this by time next month. We made a note in our diary on the way here. Simply says: "Bugger".

[Gunnulf]

The Alsace/Lorraine sector at least looks a little more secure and the Belfort gap remains closed. We really need to get a division down here to release 4 FJ Div now for duties in a more hot sector. But its been nice at least to know this area might hold out for a while. We had given consideration to launching an offensive from here, but to what end? There really aren't too many interesting targets behind the lines worse shooting for so it would just be to divert Allied forces from the centre. Which I guess is a noble goal in itself really... It will stay on the list of schemes to keep under consideration. If we somehow magically get a fresh panzer korps or two...

[Gunnulf]

Down in the south of France Qball has been poking away at the mountain passes, breaking the line west of Turin again recently but never having enough movement to push through and we so far have managed to plug the gap with a rookie FJ regiment (though some are getting above 60 experience now). However last week for some reason, accident or oversight, he left a gap in the line NW of Nice and some of our loyal Italians have started a bit of a recce in force. Not sure we will relieve Toulon just yet but hopefully give him something to have a minor panic about, and forestall attempts to break through the passes for a while.

[Gunnulf]

Italy however might be played out for a while. His counterattack pushed back our grenadiers as expected as was a little precarious. With Pescara looking fairly secure with a US Inf Div, Br Arm bde and a task force anchored in port we switch our attentions to the infantry regiment inland, but no dice as the attack grinds to a halt. Given that some of these units are on the list to withdraw soon its maybe time to get a general withdrawal underway. The intention has always been (unless this offensive somehow went well) to get back to the Gothic line mid winter to release at least a few divisions for the final battles in Germany, without necessarily releasing any allied troops as its much further to ship round to NWE obviously.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 79 - 30 Dec 44

Last week of 1944. Only 30(!) more turns to hold out until the final defeat. We keep having to remind ourselves this is a lose-lose situation here Less attacks this turn but still making progress despite the snowfall grounding the entire allied air force. We have gathered some reasonable forces to create a blocking position in the forests south of the Ruhr but Cologne is toast (obviously), and he crosses the rhine a bit further south too. Otherwise situation same old so will keep it short and sweet.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 80 - 6 Jan 45

Happy new year! If the boss wasn't teetotal this might be a good time to break it to him that its not looking likely we will break through in Italy anytime soon. Worth a shot and given the Allies a few things to think about. Not that they are really bothered, QBall has always been clear this is a sideshow and he's running it on a shoestring. Unfortunately that shoe string is just strong enough to hold.

[Gunnulf]

We were hoping a nice little victory down south might help bury the bad news about Koln falling with barely a wimper. Its been on the cards for a while but a nice easy assault boosts the Allied tally by 100vps. At some point Essen will add 200 to that and unless there have been some pretty apocalyptic battles to get there it should lift QBall into victory territory. He is still winning ground despite the snow and bad weather, very very few holds but still he is taking casualties with the US Army very much doing the bulk of the heavy lifting now. Our only plan right now is bloody minded stubbornness and trying to maintain relative command and control in the face of disorder. The Luftwaffe was busy this week and inflicted more losses than we received, 245 pilots lost and 391 machines versus 540 allied pilots and 549 planes. He can afford the losses but at least we are still in the fight swinging haymakers.
Finally as we go into 1945 you can see the state of production. He has slowed right down on bombing industry really, you can see there is virtually no manpower or fuel damage and we have no issues here, and the best news we present the Fuhrer is that U-Boat production is running at 100%! Surely we will starve the Anglo-Saxons into submission now!
So what is he bombing? Well I thought it was vehicles and AFVs before but vehicle factories are in relatively good shape, Panther factories are 37 capacity, 18 damage so about 50% and StugIII & IV are similar, but PzIVJ are 44 capacity and only 8 damage right now. To be honest I haven't been paying too much attention to what he is hitting just lately and looking at the damage levels I'm not much wiser... Perhaps I should take a closer look. However I think overall the VPs he was able to rack up in 43 and to a lesser extent 44 were far higher than anything I could achieve and its almost certainly shifted him a victory section higher overall I would think.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 81 - 13 Jan 45

Up in the mountains so just a quick update. The Allies keep crawling forward despite the snowfall and we only get a few holds. Thankfully at least the main one is north of Essen which is important for sure to keeping the integrity of the defenses up here. They only hold on by their fingernails though so no doubt this won't be the last attempt. I hope that assaulting like this on a wide front is stretching his troops and supplies, but I've been hoping this a while to no avail obviously.

[Gunnulf]

Making plenty of dangerous progress in the south too, breaking into the line in Alsace which until now has been in pretty good shape and not received much attention. Certainly going to be a more busy winter than I expected.

[Gunnulf]

However... at least down here we manage a decent counterattack against his deep incursion and repel an armoured brigade and cavalry group who had overextended themselves. Also west of the Vosges then 4FJ div plugs the gap to prevent the line being breached avoiding us needing to adjust the line just yet. So its not great down here but certainly better than the centre where there is not much we can do but hope he runs out of steam.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 82 - 20 Jan 45

But lets not get too excited about those minor little successes as we are losing most of the important battles. Next turn south of Essen a battle we would hope to win with only 1 hex frontage exposed, dug in to level 2 in light woods with a decent division plus brigades and regiments in support gets pushed back with no chance of counterattack despite the heavy snow. Definitely a bad sign of the situation.
However more importantly immediately it seems in my haste to turn around a turn I missed a withdrawal and a gap emerged in the line on the Maas and the allies rushed 2 Polish regiments across. Very fustrating. I guess we can call it a Remegen bridge scenario, but quite annoying as of course this northern flank had been reliably stable for a long while. Hopefully we can rush to secure the second line but its a distraction we could do without for sure.

[Gunnulf]

Bit of a long turnaround on that week as was off on a recce for a last bastion in the austrian alps. However got the response done, mostly plugging gaps and fighting fires but after a series of 3 counterattacks we were able to force the 7th US arm div to retreat. Small victories etc...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 84 - 3 Feb 45

3rd US Shock Army continues to plow relentlessly through the fresh snow and the hole in the line north of Frankfurt is frankly looking irreparable. Everywhere else is looking relatively stable for the moment, even around the Ruhr, but clearly this is the schwerpunkt, with no signs of supply restrictions and not slowed by the weather. We'll have to see what we can do to draw down units in the other sectors but for the most part while stable they are held by the minimum forces already, especially with almost all the key SS divisions off in Hungary, and the fluid battle developing will be difficult to halt. Sensible heads in the high command mutter about offering the allies terms in order to concentrate on the east front but of course the leader will never allow it. Budapest and Konigsburg just fell, a whole army is cut off in Courland, and the soviets are just 110 miles from Berlin. We lament that had the allies landed in June rather than May we might have ended up defending the Rhine in winter but without a clear defensive position its all downhill from here really. ,

[Gunnulf]

So what to do? Across the much depleted Reich the situation is certainly not rosy, but its only in the Frankfurt sector that disaster looms. We have troops in Italy and could pull back to the Gothic line, but at most this would free up 3 or so divisions, a relatively drop in the ocean, not even enough to defend 1 hex really as he continues to bust through 3 division stacks with ease. The rational thing probably would have been to pull everything out of Italy and defend the Brenner pass into Austria to free up troops but we have tried to play it straight and stay in character throughout and this doesn't seem like it would be authorised by high command. There are a couple of 3rd rate divisions in Denmark offering token resistance to any late invasion, and likewise the beaches of the Netherlands are manned at regimental strength as to strip them out has seemed like an invitation to disaster if he landed here late too. I think we basically need to suck it up and accept that not being able to slow the allies at all in the centre in winter has led to disaster and play it out best we can. But with a whole 25 turns to go its looking like complete defeat is on the cards unfortunately.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

What have you got left down in the Belfort Gap/Vosges? If it's still divisions down there I'd maybe be pulling back, leaving a token force in the forts behind the river as a 'speed bump' and sending as much as you can north to where things are going wrong. It's a race to Berlin now and its a very long way to get there from down south.

If it seems like the Allies are not really finding things difficult supply-wise then it might be time to let them open up Antwerp and abandon most of Holland to form a much shorter line?

The Italy question is a difficult one as I really enjoy seeing a campaign played out 'realistically'. But I think if a player, especially the Axis player, is going to do that and to an extent tie a hand behind their back there needs to be some sort of house rule to keep things balanced.

More generally, I've really enjoyed this AAR so far - many thanks

[Gunnulf]

Thanks Sammy, the Belfort gap point is very valid. It crossed my mind before a few turns ago but I dismissed, mostly out of sheer stubbornness, but it's certainly time to revisit this, and the Italy pullback. The latter I had always had on the cards to aim to be back there before end of winter to free up troops for the end push, but as you say without winter giving us any protection then it might be time to move sooner. I've tried to keep it interesting and not just do the optimal game thing, but clearly Berlin is at risk and i should react. OR i guess the alternative is to consider if it is to be a schwerpunkt on Berlin can i see how much else i can be holding at end game. I'm not sure how many points he gets for early capture of Berlin versus not losing other cities like Hamburg for example.
What is clear is that QBall is going all in i think, he has made no secret of going all in with extra troops from the med, and has not even held any division back to truly pen in the ports left behind, they are all ringed by forts. So at the front in Germany i am facing far far more troops than historical and they are mostly focused on this one sector now with the north and south lightly held by brigades and regiments in many places. I think in previous games QBall was stalled to a stalemate on the Rhine and this time he is taking no chances, and balanced against me trying to be a bit historical at fight everywhere then it's unstoppable. I'll see what i can do to slow it down but it's been and enjoyable game either way and want to carry on enjoying Italy and elsewhere a bit too rather than making it all about one single scramble.
Big rugby day today so going to sink a few beers and ponder the pros and cons of the next move. All input welcome of course

[John B.]

It sounds to me like the fall back in the netherlands may be your best best to shorten the lines and come up with more troops fast. And, given the disaster looms in the center now holding stuff in Denmark to prevent future disasters may not be the best allocation of resources. As for abandoning Italy, perhaps you just don't tell the Higher Command that you've done so. It's not like he's going to fly down to check.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 85 - 10 Feb 45

Bit of a pause as both had a busy week but latest turn just in, full of doom, disaster and looming collapse. The Allies have no trouble driving a further 50 miles through the Fulda gap. We have reserves heading that way but we have more hope that logistics or mud will slow them down a bit, but I'm not too optimistic. Of more worry though is Essen falls to direct assault. I had hoped that was secure for a while as was showing about 70 Def CV last turn, but the first assault dropped the forts to zero and the second marched in causing more casualties than we started with... Perhaps some were HJ and Volksturm? Either way certainly not a good state of affairs. I do wonder about some of these large 100K troop assaults and frontage issues in urban assaults like this but right now I need to suck it up. Whats clear is that now nothing is safe, no matter what the terrain or how strong the fortifications or whatever the weather. If Qball wants it, he can get it now, and on a broad frontage too.

[Gunnulf]

By far the worst indicator of the state of the nation though is just north of Essen where 2 FJ Div despite being fresh, nearly full strength, 78 morale, dug in to level 3, and with good C2, they basically evaporate with 9.5K in losses (8.6k PWs) while only causing 300 allied casualties. Looking at the details not many immediate clues what went wrong other than I guess the forts were dropped and immediately we were effectively left naked in the open. Perhaps fort erosion should be more gradual to reflect defense in depth, but again right now this is just one further disaster for the reich.
Once winter its only going to get worse as there is nowhere left to hide in the north really. The loss of Essen doesn't quite push the VPs out of 'draw' territory but its pretty damn close. One more lost city should do it and it seems highly unlikely that will not happen as Leipzig is pretty wide open. Maybe we can do a deal with the Soviets to join up to face off together against the Anglo-Saxon threat?
We are pulling out of Alsace back to the Rhine in the south, have stripped troops out of Festung Walcheren, and are pulling back to the Gothic line in Italy to free up a few divisions but our historical sensibilities and Teutonic stubbornness prevent us from not leaving at least a token regimental line on the Netherlands coast. Yes, I know I'm an idiot, but I did up front warn this was never going to be a textbook example of the right way to do things. If you want to know how to win as Germany read a Pelton AAR, except he'd have given up already by this point if things were going this badly