The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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Bullwinkle58
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Durn, there's some good thinking for you.  I personally would pay attention to such clever advice, but since Bullwinkle is a AI player it really can't be good....can it?

[:'(]

Yeahbut, it would take one you you PBEM geniuses to think to get the Gurkhas some winter coats!

(What's the freezing point of curry?)
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Nemo121
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Nemo121 »

Again this obsession with hair... Hmm, does male pattern baldness run in the family? One wonders about a reaction-formation [:D]

As to the child thing. It was a metaphor as witpqs said, not an insult.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
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Wirraway_Ace
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Wirraway_Ace »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Durn, there's some good thinking for you.  I personally would pay attention to such clever advice, but since Bullwinkle is a AI player it really can't be good....can it?

[:'(]

Yeahbut, it would take one you you PBEM geniuses to think to get the Gurkhas some winter coats!

(What's the freezing point of curry?)
I may have missed the discussion, but how much of the 9000AV at Karachi is currently unrestricted?
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

I may have missed the discussion, but how much of the 9000AV at Karachi is currently unrestricted?

Good Q. which GJ would have to answer. The LOD package is, the British are, the Aussies are (if any), and a look into my 1945 game shows that the numbered Corps in the IA are, and most of the "direction" (Southern, etc.) HQ infantry is yellow (R). The majority of the engineers aren't going anywhere though. Don't know his PP sit., so it might be a triage. I'd think he could get 60-70% out, depending on if there are Aussies in there. Maybe more if he's fat on PPs.
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DOCUP
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by DOCUP »

Dang Bull what an idea. That would def mess with anyone. It also opens up all those possibilities. Scary

doc
desicat
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by desicat »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Durn, there's some good thinking for you.  I personally would pay attention to such clever advice, but since Bullwinkle is a AI player it really can't be good....can it?

P.S.  A move on this scale would throw an opponent into total confusion and could possibly wrest the entire strategic advantage away from Japan.  If you had enough transports to handle a truly massive army, the mind boggles at the possibilities.  Sikhalin Island, Hokkaido, Formosa, and Luzon seem like the most interesting targets.  But, ah, as the Moose says, I'll leave the decision making to you!

Agreed. Any units Japan has that aren't defending against an advance on the HI are just sucking supply or are investing in self guarding POW camps. If you come from the north his units in India/Burma are of no value at best and negative assets at worse. If he can mobilize the shipping to evacuate then great for him and you can advance uncontested - the downside for him is that he has to waste precious assets that he may need to counter the pressure you apply from the north and from the Solomons.
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JeffroK
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by JeffroK »

Interesting change of approach, If you move to CapeTown another option is to send them to Perth and the up through Timor, Ambon which you already have some thought on.

I would keep the pressure up on the Solomons, enough to keep his interest, then hit him hard somewhere else.
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JohnDillworth
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by JohnDillworth »

Bull, It's 1943 and one can plan for the future but by the time he has the shipping available to do anything with all these troops Raeder may have pulled his massive army out of India. As one AI player to another (do they have 12 step programs for us?)shortage of Allied land combat units is never an issue. I wouldn't know what to do with another 5,000 AV if I had them. It's all about logistics as they say. But dang this is an interesting idea. Good to see your antlers back this way. Course hunting season is upon us so I expect you'll scatter soon enough
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
Alfred
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Alfred »

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Bull, It's 1943 and one can plan for the future but by the time he has the shipping available to do anything with all these troops Raeder may have pulled his massive army out of India. As one AI player to another (do they have 12 step programs for us?)shortage of Allied land combat units is never an issue. I wouldn't know what to do with another 5,000 AV if I had them. It's all about logistics as they say. But dang this is an interesting idea. Good to see your antlers back this way. Course hunting season is upon us so I expect you'll scatter soon enough

The opponent doing so creates quite a few very unpleasant outcomes.
  • a significant loss of VPs on a daily basis
  • the loss of a significant amount of industry due to the LOC damage sustained
  • makes an Allied reconquest very easy and quick which then brings into range of Allied attack his raw material/industrial facilities in the SRA

As it is, if rader just holds his current possition he will gain a decisive Japanese victory on 1 January 1944.

Alfred
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Alfred

As it is, if rader just holds his current possition he will gain a decisive Japanese victory on 1 January 1944.

Alfred

An element I had not considered.

GJ, when you read this, pay CAREFUL attention to Alfred's statement here. I am as sure as I am of anything that he's done the math. October-November 1943 might be too little, too late for th estart of a counter-offensive series.
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GreyJoy
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by GreyJoy »

Wow guys...BW, Alfred, CR, johnDill, Desicat,Jeffk...and all the others who just posted these suggestions...thanks!!!! for the time it took you

Anyway, first of all, we expressfully agree not to play for VPs...so we're not even looking at them. So let's not think about 1.1.1944 or whatever other date.

Secondly, this is scen 2 so i think it's pretty normal that i'm well beyond the RL scheldue. I don't wanna hurry. 1946 is far away and i have time to advance. For sure, sooner or later, i'll have to start...i know...and that's exactly what i'm planning to do. I have started my advance on 1.01.1943... with the invasion of PM and of the Solomons....but he reacted and pushed me out of PM, while he managed to statlemate me at Tulagi...

The idea of moving those 9000 AVs out is really really tempting. But Rader will surely move to conquer Karachi and he has already shown me how fast he can move large masses of troops from India to whereever he wants...he can use internal lines, while i cannot. The other problem is that, as JohnDill says, i don't have the shippings for all those AVs to be used at once...cannot think to invade with xAKs or xAPs...and for sure i don't have enough of them to do that scale of multi-theatre invasion...

I think that as long as Rader keeps all those Divisions in India...they're not guarding something else. I like the idea of an advance from NW-OZ while all his main units are in India...but to keep them there i need to keep the pressure high in India.
I didn't simply sit there for 9 months BW...2 months ago i advanced with 7000 AVs and this move forced Rader to move back all his divisions from the Solomons back to India...already something...now i need to keep them stuck there.

So my plan is to mass a 10,000 AVs Army and start to march again back to Multan....even if we end up in a trench-war he will be forced to keep lots of forces in India (he has at least 70 AA units there....AA units that won't be sitting in the Mariannas, Solomons or whereever else for example).

I say (and i know i may be wrong but i really feel it): let's be patient. We're massing up our forces. We're dividing them for the different theatres and we have managed to win the last two tactical campaigns (Tulagi and Shamrya Isl.). He has estabilished a HUGE perimeter...but India and the Solomons are sucking up his mobile reserves...if i manage to break his perimeter in a spot, he won't have enough mobile reserves to push me out fast and easy (as he did at PM). So the Indian statlemate may become usefull under a certain POV...

And our CVs are getting ready....
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JohnDillworth
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by JohnDillworth »

As it is, if rader just holds his current possition he will gain a decisive Japanese victory on 1 January 1944.
Yikes! Is this true? How could we have been this stupid? Points! We need points!
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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GreyJoy
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by GreyJoy »

However VPs are now near to 2-1 in his favour....is that enough to win?
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Dan Nichols
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by Dan Nichols »

No, 2 to 1 wins in 1945. He needs 3 to 1 for an auto victory in 1944.
I think that the two obligations you have are to be good at what you do and then to pass on your knowledge to a younger person
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obvert
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by obvert »

Even if you are waiting until all of your ducks (er, DIVS) are in a row before you get started, that doesn't mean you can't use the Allied material advantage for strategic preparation and to mess with his defensive preparations.

What about the idea of some false invasions? Or minor ones? Do you hold Cocos or Christmas Island near Java? Those would be nice as a springboard for the DEI. Or the islands off of Sumatra. Or possibly one of the dot Nicobars. You could swoop in with a few APDs (LR CAPed by distant CVs or not) and grab a few small things there. Not because you think you can keep them, but because you want to throw him off balance and make him wonder where you are going to strike. A marine Raider unit or the like.

You could even just get close enough for him to see you, then run away again, but maybe in a place you're not planning to go next.

A few DD stinger sorties into the heart of the supply lines would be a fun escapade as well. Maybe Central Pacific? (Or just have a read of CR v Q-Ball and try a raid of the Home Islands!)

Even while you're sitting, planing, keep him off balance. I used to play chess against a friend who NEVER stopped making me react. Every move threatened something. Even in a defensive position. It's a simple shift in thinking. Instead of just planning where to attack, plan how to mess with his mind.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
paulkenny
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by paulkenny »

"And our CVs are getting ready.... "
 
A George McClellan quote if I have ever heard one![:D]
 
Use em or lose em my good man.
 
Hopefully you are taking this in the good humor it is meant.  Really enjoying your AAR and especially appreciate your good sportsmanship and patience with all the monday morning admirals around here.[align=right]
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JohnDillworth
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by JohnDillworth »

"And our CVs are getting ready.... "

A George McClellan quote if I have ever heard one!
+1 There is definitely some McClellan in many of the Allied AAR's and one could see some Lincoln in FDR. Imagine him in the Warm Springs GA, (perhaps with some of CR's relatives) saying "I have given him everything, and yet he does not attack"
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
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GreyJoy
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: obvert

Even if you are waiting until all of your ducks (er, DIVS) are in a row before you get started, that doesn't mean you can't use the Allied material advantage for strategic preparation and to mess with his defensive preparations.

What about the idea of some false invasions? Or minor ones? Do you hold Cocos or Christmas Island near Java? Those would be nice as a springboard for the DEI. Or the islands off of Sumatra. Or possibly one of the dot Nicobars. You could swoop in with a few APDs (LR CAPed by distant CVs or not) and grab a few small things there. Not because you think you can keep them, but because you want to throw him off balance and make him wonder where you are going to strike. A marine Raider unit or the like.

You could even just get close enough for him to see you, then run away again, but maybe in a place you're not planning to go next.

A few DD stinger sorties into the heart of the supply lines would be a fun escapade as well. Maybe Central Pacific? (Or just have a read of CR v Q-Ball and try a raid of the Home Islands!)

Even while you're sitting, planing, keep him off balance. I used to play chess against a friend who NEVER stopped making me react. Every move threatened something. Even in a defensive position. It's a simple shift in thinking. Instead of just planning where to attack, plan how to mess with his mind.

Obvert,
we have already tried that kind of "bluffs" in the past and all of them ended up simply in a material loss for the allies, with Rader that didn't "overreact" nor lost his mind. We tried two different invasions in CENTPAC (Tarawa and Marcus-Wake-Iwo) when Rader was fully committed with his Indian gamble. We found well prepared oppositions, with enough troops dug in to repulse a not overwhelming allied effort.

As you can see from the map i attached, Rader has garrisoned The Adamans, Diego, Scoodra, southern DEI, The Mariannas, Kuriles and Marcus/Wake since their conquests.
He also has regiments sitting in Cocos and Christmas.
He knows which are the "hot spots" for an allied counteroffensive and he has devoted assets and energies to occupy them and garrison them with just enough troops to avoid an "easy conquest", so to give him space and time to mount a counteroffensive.

He has a very extended perimeter which is well guarded in the most obvious landing places. My only solution to try something that really umbalances him is to by-pass his outer perimetral outposts and go diretcly to the inner perimeter (which, as far as i can tell, isn't that guarded). So to say i cannot hope to get to Diego, Cocos or Christmas first in order to get a mid-term base for my next major offensive against Sumatra/Adamans/Java...His disposition forces me to get directly there or not to go all the same (if i want to achieve at least a bit of strategical surprise).

About McEllan's quote...if i get it right you're talking about the Civil War Union General right? Well...so true...i'm not bold (while i'm bald[:D]) enough probably...i know...but i think it's more stupid the one who believes to be as smart and Meinstein and loses the war in a single shot than the one who admits to be not a new Alexander the Great, accepts it, and tries to win the war (or not to lose it) with the means the Good Lord has gratefully given him [:D]
Transalting it from GreyJoy's well known life methaphores... i'm already in a bad position strategically speaking. Lost India and China and nearly lost the war few months ago... i won't risk everything in a Heil Mary Shot because i know my limits....i don't have the abilities (yet) to mount a smart and perfect strategic plan that brings me back to a position like the allies were in RL in mid 1943...better to be methodic and cautious, but stiff and "stone-headed" like Montgomery.

[:)]

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GreyJoy
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by GreyJoy »

Jul 26,27, 28 and 29 1943


Sleepy turns.

my 4Es pounded Auki again, while my BBs bombed Thousands.
His BBs moved to Shortland while his SWPAC CVs moved from Rabaul to Truk (joining the other CVs that partecipated to the NOPAC gamble maybe???)

moving lots of troops, planes and resources all around...it take lot of time and energies to prepare all the assets in the different theatres...

Upgrading some ships that still need to take their april 43 upgrades...

My subs keep getting unlucky...2 big convoys spotted (near Colombo and near Tokyo) and attacked....3 duds...and some damages eaten back [:@]

Tomorrow we'll try to bomb Rekata Bay again, where he has moved back his fighters....let's see what happens....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Thousand Ships Bay at 114,136 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

114 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB Massachusetts
CA Hawkins
CA Wichita, Shell hits 1
CL Santa Fe
CL Montpelier
CL Columbia
CL Boise

Japanese ground losses:
49 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 42
Port hits 20
Port supply hits 3
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GreyJoy
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well, you gotta close on Japan eventually.  One way or another, the Allies are going to activate kamikazees.  As far as I'm concerned, the sooner and closer, the better. 

Not, that is, that a nuisance invasion with no hope of lasting success against Onnekotan Jima in March 1942 is worth it, but a major Allied operation that succeeds in taking multiple bases with big airfield potential?  You bet it is!  While I'm dealing with kamikazes, my opponent will be dealing with 4EB hitting the Home Islands.  I want to be securely in that position as soon as possible.

I agree, somewhat.

The issue I did not fully appreciate is that the early kami date is 1/1/44, and you have no B-29s then. Also, kamis activate everywhere, not just in NorPac. I took most of my very high losses near Sumatra, Pelileu, Rangoon/Akyab, etc. not in the Sakhalin operations. January 1944 is a LOT tougher to kami-defend than autumn 1944 would be, but it's a binary switch on kami activation.

From the twin big bases on Sakhalin I. there's fewer goodies in range pre-B-29 than you might like. Your fighters are hopeless for the most part until you have enough P-39s to spare, and of course P-51s. I've experimented a lot with hitting armament point generators in Korea, and leaving the HI largely alone. Korea is a grazing pasture for B-29s from Sakhalin. A lot less fatigue management than trying to bomb from the Marianas. I figure that engine and aircraft factory bombing by now, in Scen 2, is closing the barn door after the horse already stocked the barn with airframes, while attriting armament stocks lets me leverage Chinese LCUs which can really whomp the Japanese in 1944 once they get some supplies in from Ledo and get some experience. I've taken an almost exclusive armament-point-denial tact in my strat bombing, and it's paying off in early 1945. I get lots of 1:1 set-piece battles in China with 2000-4000 Japanese casualties.


unfortunately in my case China is likely to remain a japanese colonial province for the rest of the war...he has moved nearly every japanese division out of china by now...and my chinese corps are stuck at Chunking with 0 supplies, sieged by a 1000 japanese AVs that are enough to keep them there like in a big POW camp forever
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