Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[zuluhour]

Joc, I assume the other game is on hold?

ps. I hope to get to '45 in more ways than one! I have not had the chance to wield the hammer yet.

[JocMeister]

Zulu, Nope my other game is still moving on. But I had to drop the AAR for that one. I will pick it up once this game is done. [:)]

Its a big hammer! Except the air force of course. But the quality of the LCUs are just astonishing. Its like China in 42. Only in reverse!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]26th January -45[/font]
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Very good day for the allies. All attacks went well. Manila obviously being the important one!

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Luzon/Manilagrad
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As shown in the above post the attack went very well. Allied losses are spread evenly across the board and no unit took more damage then any other. Us usual the tank BTL are virtually untouched (I LOVE SHERMANS! [:)])

I ordered a bombardment attack tomorrow by the artillery alone to gauge the damage on the defenders. Allied troops are in pretty good shaped with DIS/FAT in the 40s. About a week of rest I think. This time the navy and air force will go to work while the army rests.

Another TF showed up at Aparri. Must be a fast one as I didn´t see it coming. Fletchers and B25s will attack tomorrow hopefully getting some results. I will also attack the port to make unloading here a lot slower.

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Thailand/Indochina
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All attacks were successful and Victoria Point, Vihn and Saigon was secured. Strangely enough the forts at Saigon was level 5. If I were Erik I would have kept the troops there instead of heading out into the wilderness.

The small force blocking the advance on CRB was swept away. Surprisingly I took a lot heavier losses than I expected.

Ground combat at 64,70 (near Dalat)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 31947 troops, 633 guns, 617 vehicles, Assault Value = 1282

Defending force 4366 troops, 35 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 138

Allied adjusted assault: 751

Japanese adjusted defense: 91

Allied assault odds: 8 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2810 casualties reported
Squads: 37 destroyed, 117 disabled
Non Combat: 57 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 24 (5 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
969 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 116 disabled [X(]
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 13 disabled
Guns lost 18 (1 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
43rd Infantry Division
27th Infantry Division
3rd Cavalry Regiment
Guides Cavalry Regiment
7th Infantry Division
India Command

Defending units:
7th Ind.Infantry Brigade
Sasebo 5th SNLF

The allied force will had down towards CRB and secure it in preparation of supplies being dropped off here.


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DEI
------------------------
Big day here tomorrow as we land on Java!! [:)] This landing is a bit exposed and Erik might try and take advantage of the situation. If he flies in the kitchen sink to Soerabaja tomorrow this can turn nasty for me. The troops will land before he can do something but he could wreck the small fleet here containing CVEs, DDs and of course the assault shipping. I rather not lose anything obviously. Especially the CVEs at this point as that would cause a significant delay in the future advancement in the region.

All I can do is put the 300 Fighters on 80% CAP and hope for the best. I hope that most of Eriks planes are out of range to transfer in. He might jump some in from Singers and Palembang but I hope everything on Formosa and the HI won´t be able to make the jump in one go. All I need is one day.


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Stratbombing
------------------------
The fires are still burning at Tokyo. They will be out tomorrow though but the results have been spectacular! [&o] I´ll do an exact count tonight on the damage. Without doubt the most devastating raid so far!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Airwar[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Obviously the last week of fighting has not been good to the allied plane pools. For the first time in the game I had to disband squadrons. This was done to 8 B24J squadrons and their planes were used to fill out other squadrons. I know its not likely but I hope when they reform in 60 days I have some planes to spare to get them back in action. Most likely though these squadrons are out until the B17 arrives in 9/45. [:(]

Another 4 P51 squadrons were downgraded to P39s/P38s. This enabled me to fill out most of the other squadrons but not all. All in all I now have some 14 Fighter squadrons (350 planes) training pilots I don´t need in OZ.

After using the P38s for escort the pool of almost 200 were emptied. I did manage to keep the squadrons in combat though by downgrading to older P38 versions like the "E", "F" and "G". The P38 pools are now completely empty too. Soon I can´t even downgrade to P40s and P39s as those are almost empty.

USN pools are slowly getting back there though. Corsairs are of course empty but I now have a "healthy" pool of almost 120 Hellcats! [&o]

Hopefully the pools can get some rest now until the next major invasion in early March.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Manilla - 4th Attack [/font]
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[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Tokyo [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

As can seen in the screen the result of the last raid really was spectacular. Losing that much HI got to hurt. Sadly, as can also be seen in the screen the aircraft factories are almost completely immune to the fires. These are also almost impossible to hit at night time.

Only way to hit them is by day and that is unlikely to happen in this game unless Japanese Fighter production collapses for other reasons.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Victory Points [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

As I mentioned before I´m getting obsessed with this lately. The thought of AV despite the disastrous losses and setbacks of 1942 and 1943 is a massive motivator.

I crunched the numbers and AV is absolutely a possibility! [&o] If I´m able to maintain the current pace of VP increase I will hit the elusive 2:1 I thought absolutelyimpossible in 176 days. Thats would be around September. So I would miss the historical date by about a month.

The problem is maintaining the VP increase. I have made some tremendous gains over the last 3 months. About 20.000 VPs to be exact. That has been largely due to the destruction of the superstack and the huge gains in Thailand. Stratbombing has also contributed with 7000 VPs. More then 1/3rd of the total gain! [X(]

I´ve begun to glance some greedy looks on targets like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. Especially Singapore would mean a net VP gain of 3000 VPs.

So now the question to ponder is if I should divert assets to Singers after all...

Another very nice pool of VPs sits with the KB and the 12 BBs Erik still have left. Thats probably something like 4-5000 more VPs?

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Reinforcements - coming 90 days[/font]
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Naval
------------------------
With the arrival of Shangri-La things are now starting to slow down. CB Guam is the last major reinforcement until the Bon Homme Richard arrives in 2 months.

There are some smaller stuff like some british CVEs, 2 CAs and 10 DDs coming before that. But in allied terms thats not much.

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Ground
------------------------
Nothing big at all. Loads of USN and USAAF BFs which will be a very welcome addition.

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Air
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Not much here either. I´m getting the first batch of B-29Bs in 40 days. I´m not sure these will be usable at all though. They completely lack armament and will be extremely vulnerable at even at night.

First P47Ns in 71 days. That will rock! [:)] I hope the added 100 USAAF fighters per month in 3/43 will help the USAAF recover. I also get 3 Squadrons of P51Ds arriving with 75 planes. That will be a great help too!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]27th January -44[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Pretty quiet turn.

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Luzon/Manilagrad
------------------------
My Fletchers again strike at what can only be supply runs.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Aparri at 82,73, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
E No.47, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
E W-17, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
E Hatsutaka, Shell hits 38, and is sunk
AK Kogyo Maru, Shell hits 48, and is sunk
AK Kyusyu Maru, Shell hits 29, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
AK Tamagawa Maru, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
AK Tatumiya Maru, Shell hits 30, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Gregory
DD John Hood
DD Hopewell
DD Johnston
DD Laws
DD Longshaw
DD McCord

This is the second one in only a week. If it really is supply runs Erik must be hurting for it to send one in again when the first one was promptly sunk.

At Manilagrad the bombardment show we made some good damage yesterday.

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6388 troops, 603 guns, 420 vehicles, Assault Value = 7290

Defending force 118730 troops, 1533 guns, 1066 vehicles, Assault Value = 2795

Japanese ground losses:
38 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 17 (4 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Raw AV ratio before the attack was 1:2,348 and after the attack 1:2,608. This means we are winning and winning fast. [&o]

I´m setting up the BB bombardments and moving AE/AKEs forward. This will be a nice shuttle with 4 BB TFs. We started preparing by clearing mines and minisubs. The minefield at Bataan seems to be cleared but there are still mines at Manila. I hope to clear them by tomorrow. 6-8 minisubs were sunk at Bataan.

Another 2000 AV landed on Luzon. This reserve I will only touch if if Erik moves the Lingayen troops towards Manila. The troops for Lingayen disembarked the assault ships to recover disruption from being on their transports so long. Takes only a day to load them so I might as well have them onshore.

Optimistic about the Luzon situation.

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DEI
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Troops land on Java unopposed! [&o] I messed up the packing a bit though and will need another day to unload. So we are not out of danger yet...


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Stratbombing
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Tonight the B29s go again. This time for Osaka. I don´t except anywhere near last raids results. But I hope I get results worth the losses.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]28th January -44[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Another quiet turn.

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Luzon/Manilagrad
------------------------
Resting the troops. First small naval bombardment went in. Showed good promise. Mines are all cleared now and the CD guns at Bataan have stopped firing.

Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

47 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
CA San Francisco
CA Minneapolis
CA Chicago
CA Chester
CL Miami
CL Mobile
CL Birmingham
CL Montpelier, Shell hits 1
DD Yarnall
DD Wickes
DD Waller
DD Walker
DD Twining
DD Fletcher
DD Lyman K. Swenson
DD Brush

Japanese ground losses:
119 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled

Tomorrow two BB TFs go in. And then we got the schedule rolling. At least one TF will bombard each night. The aerial bombardment is back on too. Troops are not recovering as fast as I would like though. I moved in the PO HQ to manilla to add support.

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Thailand
------------------------
Looks like Erik is making his stand at CRB instead of Saigon. Perhaps better forts? I´ll seal it off and move on. VP wise its an excellent trade for me. 650 VPs for Saigon vs 21 for CRB. [:)]

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DEI
------------------------
Unloading is slow due to my mess up. I need another day here to get everything off loaded. Doesn´t look like Erik will intervene though.


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Stratbombing
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Ouch, this was a costly one. NFs are almost as bad as day time fighters. [:(]

Night Air attack on Osaka/Kyoto , at 109,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms [:(]

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J1N1-Sa Irving x 35
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 21

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
J1N1-Sa Irving: 3 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed, 15 damaged[

50 NFs shoot down 28(!) B29s. Pretty silly actually. [:(] I did get some fires going despite the weather. Not sure yet if the damage will be worth the heavy price. I need to stand down now for 3-4 weeks.

------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------

Here is a screen of Thailand. Things will be calm now for a couple of days as troops are moving forward towards the next targets and the troops at Manilagrad rest back to strength.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]29th January -44[/font]
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More quiet.

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Luzon/Manilagrad
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The BB bombardments actually do better than I had expected. So did the aerial bombardment. Might be I managed to catch some of his units in move mode or something. Ground bombardment also got the first really good results.

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Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

20 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
BB King George V
BB Colorado, Shell hits 1
CA Boston
CA Vincennes

Japanese ground losses:
168 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

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Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Allied Ships
BB Alabama
BB Massachusetts
BB Indiana
BB South Dakota

Japanese ground losses:
339 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 12 (6 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)


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Morning Air attack on 107th Division, at 79,77 (Manila)

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 27 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 157
P-38L Lightning x 17

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 27 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
230 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled

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Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6404 troops, 602 guns, 420 vehicles, Assault Value = 7606

Defending force 118988 troops, 1522 guns, 1064 vehicles, Assault Value = 2855

Japanese ground losses:
210 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Good results! [:)] Now its just a matter of keeping the pace up. Its logistics basically. I need to set up the bombardments so the AE/AKEs are able to reload whatever bombards in the same turn. So the Iowas will go in alone since they will be the hardest to reload.

Raw AV is now 1:2,665. I will need 4-5 days before the next attack. Recovering about 10 FAT per day in all units. DIS is now down to single digits across the board.


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South China Sea
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Erik is trying to flee East with a 3 big TFs. I sent 3 different Fletcher TFs in after them. But all three missed. Hopefully this turn they will catch them.

[ny59giants]

I'm not an AFB or a JFB, but I am a FLETCHER Fan Boy!! [&o][&o]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
I am a FLETCHER Fan Boy!! [&o][&o]

That makes it two of us! I love those little buggers!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]30th January -44[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Wow, even less to report this turn...

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Luzon/Manilagrad
------------------------
Bombardments go in to good effect.

Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Allied Ships
BB Missouri
BB Wisconsin
BB New Jersey
BB Iowa

Japanese ground losses:
284 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 11 disabled
Non Combat: 15 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 15 (10 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 9 (5 destroyed, 4 disabled)

The Japanese troops in Manila have now reached 2868 raw AV. Thats only a +13 AV difference. Allied AV went +161. [:)]

FAT is down to 26 for the highest fatigued unit.

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South China Sea
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Erik dodged the Fletchers and unleashed some Kamis and Judys. Nothing to shout home about luckily.

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Samah at 70,68

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 68 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
P1Y2 Frances x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
P1Y2 Frances: 8 destroyed
P1Y2 Frances: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
DD Knapp
DD Hazelwood, Kamikaze hits 1
DD Braine
DD LaVallette, Kamikaze hits 1
DD Dyson

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x P1Y2 Frances flying as kamikaze
Kamikaze: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb, 4 x 60 kg GP Bomb

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Samah at 70,68

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 68 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 20 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y4 Judy x 13
Ki-84r Frank x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y4 Judy: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
D4Y4 Judy: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
DD Braine
DD Izard
DD Hazelwood

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb
11 x D4Y4 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 800 kg AP Bomb

Both DDs will need about 2 weeks to patch things about before being back in the battle. Erik lost some 50 Kamis and bombers. Good day. [:)]

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Marianas
------------------------
Looks like Erik is trying to Fast transport troops out from the Northern Islands. Can´t allow that. Fletchers sent in to deal with it.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]31st January -44[/font]
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Another slow one.

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Luzon/Manilagrad
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The bombardments from the air, sea and ground continues with almost 1000 casualties inflicted! [&o]

Raw AV is now at 1:2,8! Japanese raw AV has actually dropped from the last turn for the first time! I think two more days of rest. No sign of Japanese movement on Luzon.

Well, thats actually it. Nothing more happened this turn. [X(]

I expect a little more action tomorrow as I have some roving Fletcher striking different locations. This is just harassment really but I want Erik to start to feel constricted and wary on where he can and can´t go safely. I´m tremendously helped by the almost complete lack of recon and naval search. I can go almost anywhere completely undetected. This would have been absolutely impossible to do just 3 months ago.

I also got my first local repair yard at Saigon. Its only 10 points but it can help those Fletchers getting ENG damage in their high speed runs. [:)]

Well, thats it really. Pretty boring right now actually. Waiting for troop recovery and movement. Actually very little to do. Turns take just 30 minutes to do. [X(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Stratbombing - Osaka[/font]
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Here are the results from the raid. Its a good result and I shouldn´t really complain. But the losses are worrying. While the plane losses are horrendous (31 lost in the Osaka raid vs 52 NFs) its the pilot losses that REALLY worry me. Right now all B29-25 planes are flown by some crazy good pilots. Most (if not all) are piloted by crews with between 80-99 in GRND and between 60-80 EXP. These are getting KIA/MIA at almost the same rate as the planes.

I can never replace those pilots. Even the 4Es are now stuck with 45 EXP pilots. My biggest concern now is that when the great pilots are replaced by poor ones (45 EXP 70 GRND) the hit ratios will go down and the losses up. I might end up with a situation where they won´t get hits anymore but I still lose 25 days worth of plane replacements. For no results.

Its a concern. And not a small one...

Some historical background.

I just watched a documentary about the bombings of the Japanese HI. Lots of B29 pilots were interviewed. Even in daylight they feared little from enemy fighters. They simply couldn´t catch them. The Japanese didn´t have the means to detect them early enough for fighters to have a chance to intercept the B29s which could fly almost as fast as the defending fighters. And the B29s were already up high. This was in daylight...

The documentary claimed that the Japanese only had 50 NFs to protect the entire HI when the B29 attacks began. One of the pilots said they lost more planes because of the weather then Japanese NFs. I wish someone would tell Eriks NFs that that shoot down my poor B29s at a rate of 0.5 B29s for each NF airborne! [:@]

I know I asked before but where the heck are those overpowered 4Es everyone is talking about?! I need them! [:D]

I really hope the crappy pilots will be able to get some hits in or this bombing campaign will only last a couple of raids more.

[Speedysteve]

I'm with you Jocke. I'm aware there's a bunch of things that aren't quite historical to mix up the game but seeing it from the AFB perspective it does irk me that the B29 is virtually irrelevant for what it was used for historically.

[kjnoel]

Interesting that you don't have any bases on the screenshot. Ignoring any historical equivalence (this is a game after all), why not invade some of the islands south of Tokyo? I have no doubt it will be expensive in terms of ships, but might that not be a good trade off to enable you to base sweeping fighters (only need lvl 2 airfield after all) to clear the skies above your targets?

I might be missing the obvious but that's "kind of" my plan as I close in on the HI in my Allied game.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Speedy

I'm with you Jocke. I'm aware there's a bunch of things that aren't quite historical to mix up the game but seeing it from the AFB perspective it does irk me that the B29 is virtually irrelevant for what it was used for historically.

Thanks Speedy. Its probably good for the game but it is a bit sad not being able to use the B29s properly. I had been looking forward to doing a stratbombing campaign for so long. It was quite disappointing realising it isn´t possible.

ORIGINAL: kjnoel

Interesting that you don't have any bases on the screenshot. Ignoring any historical equivalence (this is a game after all), why not invade some of the islands south of Tokyo? I have no doubt it will be expensive in terms of ships, but might that not be a good trade off to enable you to base sweeping fighters (only need lvl 2 airfield after all) to clear the skies above your targets?

I might be missing the obvious but that's "kind of" my plan as I close in on the HI in my Allied game.

I´m trying to. Believe me I´m trying! Erik is very reluctant to let me though! [:D]

[Lokasenna]

Can you find some other targets that are less heavily defended? Osaka and Tokyo are the industrial centers. Yes, your Manpower bombing there is going to have the most potential, but he knows this and will defend them accordingly.

What about Nagoya? Nagasaki? Hiroshima? What altitude are you bombing from?

Can you move on the Sakhalins and set up bases there to bomb Sapporo?

What about invading the Bonins and getting fighters in range?

Or maybe you can just strike in some other places on Honshu and mess with his head about where you're likely to strike. For the pilots, it seems to me that this is something that needs to be planned for, for several years, given that the Allies actually suffer losses in the game [;)]. Conserve some good bomber pilots in your next game, I guess?