Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

Turn 86 - 17 Feb 45

We managed to throw a loose cordon of divisions around the main breakout and so this time the allied gain were (relatively) modest. Though still a disaster brewing obviously, but hopefully outstripping his logistics right now a little, and also there is heavy rain forecast, which may assist us a little if the snow turns to heavy mud. Not that it will quite be Russian mud, but every little ray of sunshine....
Otherwise the plan is very much to cling on by our fingernails and hope for the best....for another 14(!!) turns... What could possibly go wrong?

[John B.]

Hey, at least you have a plan!

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: John B.

Hey, at least you have a plan!

Haha, yep, in the loosest possible terms of the word I guess

Turn 87 - 24 Feb 45

The cordon around the bulge stiffens a little as 29 & 90 PzGn arrive from Italy, with a few more from other sectors too. But it looks like the allies are pausing to regroup here and let supplies catch up. The weather turns to heavy rain and the ground is sodden heavy mud. Perfect, we have the French knights exactly where our plucky Saxon archers want them...
Elsewhere we finally bite the bullet and pull the 2 divisions holding the Dutch coast to build an internal line on the east border of the Netherlands. The rational being that at this late stage a fresh landing seems unlikely. Famous last words... However once the weather turns at the end of spring it seems likely that a renewed allied push will have no trouble reaching Leipzig, Hannover and probably Nuremburg. We might still have a marginal chance to hold on to Amsterdam, Hamburg, Stuttgart & Munich. Maybe... We'll see, but getting a bit of a defense up to fortify the netherlands might make a bit of a difference in the last turns. He is still taking significant casualties pushing hard through the winter weather but based on his early bombing bonanza while we are still technically in draw territory its certain to be an allied minor victory of course.

[Gunnulf]

Italy has very likely stabilised now, both on the Alps line and the Gothic line (although we are still technically on the offensive with the Luftwaffe bombing Marseille most weeks). I can't see QBall wanting to risk casualty points for what he will perceive to be non-critical gains. Small victories to have held what we have in the grand scheme of things but its denied the Allies the northern Italian city points. But probably a Pyrrhic victory in that no doubt its tied down proportionally more of my troops than his for the most part. But I've always had it in mind that at this last moment I would use some of these relatively fresh troops for the final defense of the Reich utilising our internal lines of communication we have already send a bunch of key divisions north for this purpose. It does seem a shame in the grand game terms that this has been such an inactive theatre for the most part as i feel it has the potential to be an interesting sector.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 88 - 3 Mar 45

Heavy mud slows, but doesn't halt the Allied advance. I suspect QBall is marshalling supplies for a final push when the weather clears, and of course he is well within striking distance of everywhere he needs to go really and our defenses in the centre are paper-thin and unlikely to get much better. Still, he is even now taking considerable losses pushing as he has through the bad weather. -11VP for allied losses, but also he seems to have lapsed on attacking our V2 sites and we receive -7VP for our attacks on London and Antwerp. Back to the losses again though and we can see he has lost over 400k killed in the campaign so far, and 360k disabled. That includes Italy too, though that wasn't too heavy as he declined to fight through any fortified lines. Compared to historical losses in NWE of about 196k killed and a further 60-70k dead in the Italian campaign then it starts to look like QBall has been riding his men hard. However overall casualties are lower than historical maybe, but casualty numbers are a bit harder to compare with what constitutes that in WITW I think. Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to post, and have added the air losses to date too.

[Gunnulf]

Down south Army Group B now comprises of just 7th Army holding the French border and 14th Army holding the Gothic line. Both look fairly secure allowing 10th Army to return to the Reich for the final battles. This includes some decent formations including 2 PzGn, 1 Mtn, 1 FJ, 2 Inf Divs, and 2 PzGn bdes. All in decent shape, but of course they will get chewed up in fairly quick time and won't do much to stem the tide but it has at least stiffened the centre a little.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 89 - 10 Mar 45

Well, so much for the hope for heavy mud slowing the advance. Much fighting and big breakthroughs in the centre. Its going to take some organising to make sense of the mess and try to re-install a semblance of order on the situation. Prognosis not good obviously...
We write a polite, but urgent letter to the minister of wonder-weapons and enquire about progress...

[Gunnulf]

At least we manage to cut off the rookie and slightly overzealous 17th US Airborne division. They advanced at least 8 hexes despite the snow and I had to double check that it wasn't actually a paradrop. Its a pretty feeble cordon and of course they will be relieved immediately and its only consequence might be to tie up a few units rescuing them rather than advancing. Futile but still mildly satisfying in a pretty bleak turn though and we'll take all the positive we can rustle up...

[loki100]

one bit of good news is he has swung south ... realise quite a bit of time still to go but that at least doesn't really help him on the road to Berlin?

[Gunnulf]

Very good point. I think this is about taking the point of least resistance as I deposited the newly arrived and reasonably fresh 10th Army from Italy on the path to Berlin. They won't hold forever but its a bit more sticky there. But also I'm sure Qball has his eyes on the equally juicy prices of Nuremburg, Stuttgart & Munich, and the potential for a grand pocket of the still relatively stiff defences that 19th Army has on the southern Rhine. He still has time on the clock for little diversions like this I think. I am trying to fortify the key cities so they are not a total walkover but it will just mean he can't take them on the fly and cause a slight delay while he forms up to assault.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 90 - 17 Mar 45

Still no snow melt and turns out Shermans and dodge trucks like nothing better than to tear across the snow at breakneck speed. Soon as a gap is made the allies are ten hexes deep behind the lines. Our volkstrumm are clearly not making any impact at all. QBall lets us know that these are motorised infantry and airborne divisions acting as ersatz panzergrenadiers, but it still suprises me that manages to get so far. Universally hexes are either 6 water & 4 snow or 7 water and 3 snow. The Allied pace in snow still seems more akin to a Soviet army right now. Incidentally the Allies are now nearly as close to Berlin as the Soviets but no sign and any troops will be sent from the East front to help unfortunately...

Anyway, looks like we need to transition to a fluid defense and sacrifice some ground to eat up time if we want to hold out. But given that historically the allies were only just crossing the Rhine under Op Varsity then QBall is well ahead of the curve here really now. Looking back he obviously got a months head start but we just about pulled the timeline back on track for the fall of Paris and Antwerp, but maybe it cost us too much to achieve this.

However right now QBall is really pushing his troops hard and this turn alone lost -17 US losses and -10 others. Seems like quite a butchers bill at the point where many Allied units should be getting casualty adverse with the end in sight? Given the adjusting scale of other VP rates I might have been tempting to suggest Allied casualty points shift to 1 per 750 for the US and 1 per 500 for the others in 1945 to punish Allied players being too ready to burn out there units in a final blaze of glory in the race to the end.

[Gunnulf]

The fighting spirit of the panzerwaffe should not be underestimated though and 116 Pz mounts a counterattack and decisively routs 27 Arm Bde in order to clear the path for 2 FJ to withdraw back into the Netherlands pocket. QBall makes continual use of British Arm Bdes and US Scout Regiments as independent pursuit units but they almost never stand up in contact without infantry support. I tend to prefer to attach armoured brigades directly to add punch to infantry divisions, unless they are used as armoured reserve units in defense, but I'm sure there are pros and cons.

[Gunnulf]

So, after the shuffling of units 1st Army and the FJ Army form the Netherlands pocket. Fairly strong so good chance QBall will chose to ignore it I'm sure. In the Reich 15th Army has the north flank and withdraws to screen Bremen. 10th Army is in relatively good shape screening Berlin & Leipzig. Down south 25th Army is largely in disarray but will try to slow the advance on Munich which is busy fortifying with the Jaeger division fresh from Italy. Finally in the deep south 19th Army, also in reasonable shape abandons Colmar to pull back and avoid encirclement, the better to defend Stuttgart a little longer.
That said I expect all these cities to fall before long, and we are certainly entering endgame. Despite the weather, and despite running a large army from limited ports his logistics are just not as constrained as I hoped they might be and he is running rampant.

[Joel Billings]

The good news for the Germans is that the Allies next turn is likely to be in heavy mud. With good roads, it won't be as bad as it is on the Eastern Front, but he should slow down some if you can still build a defensive line.

[Gunnulf]

I hope so, we have been offering sacrifices to the Mud-Gods for weeks now to little avail but it must melt soon...probably...hopefully. We've given up hoping that the allies will show signs of outrunning their logistics though. We still bomb Marseille to keep that at 50% efficiency and Antwerp, Bordeaux, Toulon, Nice, Cherbourg and Brest are still locked up but he's never really showing signs of being short of fuel or ammo.
Either way its going to be tough to build a contiguous line in the centre, its very much all about throwing up whatever blocks we can, make use of heavy woods where possible, and try to remember to rebuild some semblance of a depot structure on the retreat, which is easy to forget in the excitement/confusion for sure. I think we can hold Amsterdam and Berlin, and of course north Italy, for honour rather than points. Everything else I strongly suspect is toast, which I guess is to be expected really. Did I mention we weren't expecting to win anyway?

[John B.]

No disrespect to the allies who are playing a very good game, but if you factor in the VP that seemed a bit unbalanced from the Strat Bombing campaign you are actually doing very well!

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: John B.

No disrespect to the allies who are playing a very good game, but if you factor in the VP that seemed a bit unbalanced from the Strat Bombing campaign you are actually doing very well!

QBall certainly played a blinder in the air war, textbook stuff really that I've been unable to replicate myself. Maybe without those early points the score might be closer but while I think I did ok in Italy early on I don't think there is any doubt that he has taken me apart in NWE too. He rationally has gone all in while I stubbornly held troops back. Not that a few extra divisions really would have made too much difference, at any key point he has always been able to bring more than enough. He has also clearly mastered the logistics as he has been able to operate at a tempo throughout that, aside from a couple of one week pauses has been unhampered by any restrictions I have tried to inflict on his port capacity. And now far earlier than historically he is 21 hexes or 210 miles past the Rhine and deep into Germany at the gates of Munich in the very turn that historically Operation Varsity was only just crossing the River. So I'm not sure I'm really doing well at all to be honest and QBall rightly deserves his victory on all counts. At best you could argue that he landed in France a month early, and is now still a month ahead of schedule but thats really clutching at straws I think!

[Gunnulf]

Turn 91 - 24 Mar 45

Bit of a hiatus due to trips and holidays on both sides, but finally managed to get in the bunker and send out a few orders to our now largely non-existent hordes. It seems that the ground conditions have skipped heavy mud and gone straight to light mud and in places patches of clear and with this evaporation so to evaporates any hope of a coherent last stand. The allies punch another 80 miles in places and reach the outskirts of Munich in the south, and draw close to Leipzig. Any sane leader would put an end to the needless suffering and the game certainly highlights the futility of the German situation in the closing months of the war. Its quite terrible that so many were lost when there was clearly no hope of victory. Of course the whole war was a human tragedy on an outrageous scale, but this really captures the futility towards the end.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 92 - 31 Mar 45

Rain returns to NWE and we get some scattered heavy mud in Germany, but the advance continues, Dresden falls and there is really very little in the way on the road to Berlin. Down south 19th Army is broken into two pockets and it won't be long before Munich falls. With so much time left on the clock I can't see the how QBall can't fail to take Berlin. He is screening the Netherlands with regiments and looks like will make no attempts on this pocket. I am quietly confident he doesnt needs this over-optimisation and has plenty of forces available but maybe he knows something I dont. Ok, well I'm sure this game has proved there is plenty he knows that I don't!
He does still seem to be pushing hard and taking casualties. Aside from the 100 point bonuses from taking the key cities at least I am still pullin scores in our favour every turn, -7 this week. I can't shoot points at him though, we need fresh troops and the cupboard is bare.

[John B.]

Looks like he has fallen into your trap! Seriously, Kudos to you for hanging in there even when it's so grim.