Gary Grigsby/Joel Billings interview

[Nikademus]

Originally posted by Von Rom

blah blah, blah blah blah......

must.......... not.......point........out..........obvious.........flaw.........
in........argument............

must........not..

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, Some where we have several different sets of numbers.
My sources give around 1500 ships total sunk by other then sub during entire war in all theatres. (So using the 1200 by 41 figure we are left with 300 for 42-43-44-45 ) Somethings gotta give.
We all have to agree on a set of numbers and all use it.
(I have nothing showing 1200 ships lost via other then sub before end of 41 and I'm going one day at a time. )

Mogami:

The approxiamte total of ALL Allied ships sunk (by all causes) between 1939 to 1941 is closer to 2,500 ships.

The total number of ships sunk in all of WWII is closer to 5,000.

Here is a site that gives several comparisons:

http://www.usmm.net/battleatlantic.html

Here is another site that gives an exhaustive month by month account of all Allied ship sinkings throughout the war:

http://www.naval-history.net/WW2CampaignsUboats.htm

[Nikademus]

Moot in a way Mogami

If one sticks to the original premise of the effectiveness of the Uboats which is what Blair's book focused on (hence his data is not FALSIFED lol) and we can accept that the boots sank 1,124 vessels in return for 35% of their wartime strength, and that despite this, the British merchant navy ended 41 with a bigger fleet than it started (in spite of other non-related losses), then the only relevent point to explore. is,....... what state the British economy?

Were they at the brink? So far it hasn't looked that way.

[pry]

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, Some where we have several different sets of numbers.
My sources give around 1500 ships total sunk by other then sub during entire war in all theatres. (So using the 1200 by 41 figure we are left with 300 for 42-43-44-45 ) Somethings gotta give.
We all have to agree on a set of numbers and all use it.
(I have nothing showing 1200 ships lost via other then sub before end of 41 and I'm going one day at a time. )

Ok let me try this and see if it floats

My main source World War 2, A Statistical Survey, John Ellis 1993
lists nearly every conceivable topic. So I'll give you 1939, 1940 and 1941 numbers.

Merchant vessels lost all causes

1939 = 221
1940 = 1059
1941 = 1399
Total = 2679

It then goes to list losses by cause but does so in percentages
then by doing the math we should be able to arrive at a very close number

1939 = 221

Subs 55.8% = 123 vessels
Aircraft 0.4% = 1 vessels
Mines 34.8% = 77 vessels
Surface 8.1% = 18 vessels
Other or Unknown 0.9% = 2 vessels

1940 = 1059
Subs 54.8% = 581
Aircraft 14.5% = 154
Mines 12.8% = 135
Surface 12.8% = 135
Other or Unknown 5.1% = 54

1941 = 1399
Subs 50.1% = 701
Aircraft 23.5% = 329
Mines 5.3% = 74
Surface 11.2% = 157
Other or Unknown 9.9% = 138

So given these numbers we come up with

Lost to Subs = 1405
Lost to Aircraft = 484
Lost to Mines = 286
Lost to Surface Vessels = 310
Lost to Other or Unknown = 194
Total = 2679

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by pry
Ok let me try this and see if it floats

My main source World War 2, A Statistical Survey, John Ellis 1993
lists nearly every conceivable topic. So I'll give you 1939, 1940 and 1941 numbers.

Merchant vessels lost all causes

1939 = 221
1940 = 1059
1941 = 1399
Total = 2679

It then goes to list losses by cause but does so in percentages
then by doing the math we should be able to arrive at a very close number

1939 = 221

Subs 55.8% = 123 vessels
Aircraft 0.4% = 1 vessels
Mines 34.8% = 77 vessels
Surface 8.1% = 18 vessels
Other or Unknown 0.9% = 2 vessels

1940 = 1059
Subs 54.8% = 581
Aircraft 14.5% = 154
Mines 12.8% = 135
Surface 12.8% = 135
Other or Unknown 5.1% = 54

1941 = 1399
Subs 50.1% = 701
Aircraft 23.5% = 329
Mines 5.3% = 74
Surface 11.2% = 157
Other or Unknown 9.9% = 138

So given these numbers we come up with

Lost to Subs = 1405
Lost to Aircraft = 484
Lost to Mines = 286
Lost to Surface Vessels = 310
Lost to Other or Unknown = 194
Total = 2679

Yup. Those are roughly the figures I have found as well.

You really have to wonder how a man of Blair's stature could have missed all those sunken Allied ships "by other causes". LOL

Thanks pry.

Here is another site that lists 2,299 Allied ships sunk by all causes between 1939-1941.

http://www.theworldatwar.com/feature.htm

Whatever the number, Blair missed it by a mile. . .

[mogami]

Originally posted by Von Rom
Mogami:

The approxiamte total of ALL Allied ships sunk (by all causes) between 1939 to 1941 is closer to 2,500 ships.

The total number of ships sunk in all of WWII is closer to 5,000.

Here is a site that gives several comparisons:

http://www.usmm.net/battleatlantic.html

Here is another site that gives an exhaustive month by month account of all Allied ship sinkings throughout the war:

http://www.naval-history.net/WW2CampaignsUboats.htm

No NO NO. I didn't say by all causes I said by all causes other then submarine. On your page they need to learn how to add
(The totals make no sense.)


Lets not mix our numbers. (from your web site)


Well I tried to use that first table but none of the numbers add up to what the totals are.

I used the bottom table (It had the highest ship sunk totals)

Can't use it. In fact none of these tables are close to one another from 39 to 45.

On one page it goes from 50 ships sunk by U-boats to 212 all sunk in 1939 by subs or in Atlantic.

This is hopeless. Can't anyone agree
"SS Blah of XX tons was sank by XXXX on blah blah date???

I will say more merchant men survuved being sunk then I first supposed. If 85 percent of the prewar fleet was sunk and only 30 percent of the prewar sailors were lost. (and supposing the number of ships went up (It does not matter if a ship was sunk. The merchant marine had to get a new crew for the new ship. But the total crew lost was only 30 percent of pre war number)

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by Mogami
No NO NO. I didn't say by all causes I said by all causes other then submarine. On your page they need to learn how to add
(The totals make no sense.)


Lets not mix our numbers. (from your web site)


Well I tried to use that first table but none of the numbers add up to what the totals are.

I used the bottom table (It had the highest ship sunk totals)

Can't use it. In fact none of these tables are close to one another from 39 to 45.

On one page it goes from 50 ships sunk by U-boats to 212 all sunk in 1939 by subs or in Atlantic.

This is hopeless. Can't anyone agree
"SS Blah of XX tons was sank by XXXX on blah blah date???

I will say more merchant men survuved being sunk then I first supposed. If 85 percent of the prewar fleet was sunk and only 30 percent of the prewar sailors were lost. (and supposing the number of ships went up (It does not matter if a ship was sunk. The merchant marine had to get a new crew for the new ship. But the total crew lost was only 30 percent of pre war number)

Mogami:

I read you correctly. I thought that you didn't intend to mean by ALL causes.

Some of the sources do vary.

But one thing they all agree on, EXCEPT Blair, is that the total number of Allied ships sunk between 1939 to 1941 BY ALL CAUSES is at least double to what Blair has indicated it to be in his book.

I think you are close to the mark with 1500 ships sunk by other causes between 1939-1941. I had about 1400 ships. Pry has about 1200.

So I would say anywhere between 1200 to 1500 Allied ships were sunk by other causes between 1939 to 1941. These are numbers that Blair has ignored in his data.

I missed it the first time I read his book. Then I while I was re-reading it, it seemed to jump off the page at me.

So the total number of all Allied ships sunk by all causes (U-boat, plane, mine, surface raider) between 1939 to December, 1941 is between 2,300 to 2,600 ships.

These figures are more than double those indicated by Blair.

[mogami]

Hi, Ok. But these numbers don't really tell us what we need to know.
For instance. I've found ships sunk in Atlantic by U-boat are normally at least twice the tonnage of ships sunk else where by other then sub.

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, Ok. But these numbers don't really tell us what we need to know.
For instance. I've found ships sunk in Atlantic by U-boat are normally at least twice the tonnage of ships sunk else where by other then sub.

It can get confusing.

But if we just use the total number of ships sunk, it still begs the question as to why Blair would omit this rather large number of Allied ships sunk by "Other Causes".

Taken together, 2,500 Allied ships sunk between 1939 to December 1941 by all causes represents the equivalent of Britain losing 83% of its pre-war merchant fleet (of 3,000 ships).

[pry]

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, Ok. But these numbers don't really tell us what we need to know.
For instance. I've found ships sunk in Atlantic by U-boat are normally at least twice the tonnage of ships sunk else where by other then sub.

Ok I think I now know what you are looking for...

September 3 1939
U-26 Lays minefield which sinks 3 ships of 17414 tons
U-27 sinks 2 ships of 624 tons
U-28 sinks 1 ship of 4955 tons
U-29 sinks 3 ships of 19405 tons
U-30 sinks 2 ships of 9625 tons

Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.

If this is what you are looking for I have the info but it going to take a while and I mean long while to compile it all thru 1941

[mogami]

Oh now we have a new set of numbers. Ships sunk by other causes includes trawlers (often very small under 300t) and there were 6k of them in WW2. (They were used for coastal traffic. Many were used in ASW roles. My source (a trawler page) states there were 6,000 trawler crewmen (and women) in 1939 on 600 ships and by wars end there were 66,000 crew on 6k ships.

These trawlers get listed in the sunk ship totals but were not part of 3k merchant fleet. (Many non U-boat non Atlantic ships sunk were this type)

This results in a problem

a U-boat torpedos and sinks 1 9kt ship in mid atlantic.
a Ocean tug of 80t hits a mine and sinks
a JU-88 bombs and sinks a trawler 300t

totals for day 3 ships 9380t. But only the 9kt ship really impacts the overall picture.

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by pry
Ok I think I now know what you are looking for...

September 3 1939
U-26 Lays minefield which sinks 3 ships of 17414 tons
U-27 sinks 2 ships of 624 tons
U-28 sinks 1 ship of 4955 tons
U-29 sinks 3 ships of 19405 tons
U-30 sinks 2 ships of 9625 tons

Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc.

If this is what you are looking for I have the info but it going to take a while and I mean long while to compile it all thru 1941

You're getting paid by the hour aren't you?

Besides, hammering away on the keyboard is great finger therapy - hehe

[pry]

Originally posted by Von Rom
You're getting paid by the hour aren't you?

Besides, hammering away on the keyboard is great finger therapy - hehe

Actually no...

Self employed doing computer repair, networking and web hosting and I also run a very large naval history web site which is why I can pop in and out of this forum all day long. I already spend all day working on my "Finger Therapy"

[Von Rom]

EDIT: DP

[Von Rom]

Not sure what happened in that above post

pry:

That's why you have access to so much info.

Excellent.

Is that your fingers I hear typing. . . ?

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by Mogami
Oh now we have a new set of numbers. Ships sunk by other causes includes trawlers (often very small under 300t) and there were 6k of them in WW2. (They were used for coastal traffic. Many were used in ASW roles. My source (a trawler page) states there were 6,000 trawler crewmen (and women) in 1939 on 600 ships and by wars end there were 66,000 crew on 6k ships.

These trawlers get listed in the sunk ship totals but were not part of 3k merchant fleet. (Many non U-boat non Atlantic ships sunk were this type)

This results in a problem

a U-boat torpedos and sinks 1 9kt ship in mid atlantic.
a Ocean tug of 80t hits a mine and sinks
a JU-88 bombs and sinks a trawler 300t

totals for day 3 ships 9380t. But only the 9kt ship really impacts the overall picture.

Even if we allow for 100 sunk trawlers (many of whom were converted to be small destroyers and sub chasers), that would still leave a total of about 2400 to 2500 Allied ships sunk between 1939 to Dec/1941.

Also, the loss a trawler means that an area will then be open for U-boats to enter and lay mines, torpedo ships, etc which would have importance for both Germany and Britain.

[mogami]

Hi, The trawlers did not operate any where U-boats actually did.
The U-boat was confined to the mid Atlantic gap. After the fall of France they outflanked the RN and had bases that allowed them the range to operate outside aircover. We don't find too many U-boats operating in the confined waters. (They also hit mines. )
Of course the RN did not know this and maintained ASW patrols.
The trawlers also fought E-boats and mounted AA.
When you look at ships sunk UK waters you don't find too many U-boats after mid 40. But the bulk of the ships lost in these waters also did not belong in the vital ocean going merchant catagory (where they are always quoted)

Only ships capable of trans ocean movement should be listed in our study.

These are the ships the U-boats were after. We don't need to include "U-** surfaced off Norway on Apr 7 and sank 6 Norwegian fishing boats and MG'd the crews and later list these boats as part of a 5k ship sunk total.

[Von Rom]

Originally posted by Mogami
Hi, The trawlers did not operate any where U-boats actually did.
The U-boat was confined to the mid Atlantic gap. After the fall of France they outflanked the RN and had bases that allowed them the range to operate outside aircover. We don't find too many U-boats operating in the confined waters. (They also hit mines. )
Of course the RN did not know this and maintained ASW patrols.
The trawlers also fought E-boats and mounted AA.
When you look at ships sunk UK waters you don't find too many U-boats after mid 40. But the bulk of the ships lost in these waters also did not belong in the vital ocean going merchant catagory (where they are always quoted)

Only ships capable of trans ocean movement should be listed in our study.

These are the ships the U-boats were after. We don't need to include "U-** surfaced off Norway on Apr 7 and sank 6 Norwegian fishing boats and MG'd the crews and later list these boats as part of a 5k ship sunk total.

Many trawlers were used early on by Britain (due to lack of destroyers) for convoy escort. Some trawlers actually sank U-boats. And vice-versa.

Here's a site that has more details:

http://uboat.net/allies/ships/trawlers.htm

[mogami]

Hi, There are still some old items that need to be cleared up so we can all be on the same page. I don't like to drag up old items but we have to all agree on the time frame for Germany defeating Britain. (It has to be before USA enters war)


"USA

While a world war raged for almost 3 years, from 1939 to Dec of 1941; while ALL of western Europe had been conquered; while Britain fought for its life; and while the USSR was almost brought to its knees; the USA had remained isolationist, and had a military that ranked 18th in the world, behind Holland.

Do you really think this would have improved if there were 3 years of peace?"

Did you believe this when you posted it? You do know the USA began the draft in 1940. (Planning to build the structure to support 12 million men in arms) We've posted the ship building programs for 39-41. The USA spent 300 million adding 150 brand new slips for ship building (and expanded existing shipyards as well) Another 3 years and Japan would not have declared war (they did it in 41 because they knew it would be too late in 43)

There is no way to imagine the surrender of any Allied nation after the USA enters the war. Historically the war is lost for Japan 6 months after it begins. And the U-boats are not even important (except as minor risks) 18months after USA enters.
(They achive a brief moment of terror in 43 and then get squashed)

No Britain must be defeated prior to Dec 41

[mogami]

"Many trawlers were used early on by Britain (due to lack of destroyers) for convoy escort. Some trawlers actually sank U-boats. And vice-versa."


Hi, Interesting but unimportant. What is important is these small non merchant ships get included in ship sunk totals but no where else. And they do not carry cargo. After 1940 they still are sunk at same rate as before but they are not really part of battle of Atlantic. Saying 5000 ships were sunk in war is interesting.
I'm looking for xxxx ships that carried cargo were sunk during war. Tonnage of ships sunk, tonnage available on any given day from 1 Sept 39 to 9 Dec 1941.
These are the numbers that will tell us how close Britian is to defeat.