Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Roger Neilson 3

Not about the current situation, but looking back on your pasting of the combat details.... how are you getting these screen caps during a replay?

Roger

"Print scrn" button during the replay. Then I alt+tab to the desktop and past the screen into paint. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]China/Indochina[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Here is a screen of the situation. I´m expecting the Hong Kong and Canton stacks to merge into a 200.000 "Superstack Mk3" shortly.

[RogerJNeilson]

Ah ok, low tech eh? I'm sure there's a a programme that will do it as the replay happens.... just cannot remember it.

Roger

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Roger Neilson 3

Ah ok, low tech eh? I'm sure there's a a programme that will do it as the replay happens.... just cannot remember it.

Roger

Haha, yeah pretty low tech. But it takes only a second and the replay even freezes when you tab out. Works well enough for me. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Hehe, found this post by Erik in the war room

ORIGINAL: obvert
Certainly different than my game where the Allies can simply bring in 3k AV more and just steamroll, getting Manila in under two months.

Its a discussion regarding stacking limits. Interesting to see two completely different perspectives on SL. I´m pretty certain I would have grabbed Manila a long time ago if we had used SL. Erik at most had 8 divisions and around 220.000 men at Manila against 10 allied divisions and 300.000 men. I wouldn´t have to care about the SLs as could burn supply without regard.

The initial setup at Manila further enhances my belief. The first attack was 205.000 Allied troops against 160.000 Japanese. After two attacks the defense where almost completely broken. This is when Erik reinforced with another 40.000 (3 fresh IDs) men bringing the total defenders up to 200.000. This would not have been possible using SL. In response to that I moved in 5 fresh divisions and rotated out one and added more HQs. This brought the total Allied strength up to 305.000 men. Without Erik bringing in another 1000 AV to Manila after the two first attacks (when he was inside or bang on the SL) Manila would have fallen by now.

So when inside the SL of 160.000 Manila was about to fall almost immediately against only 205.000 allied troops. I think that is a pretty clear indication that SL wouldn´t have helped him. On the contrary it seen it would have made his defense fall even faster.

[ny59giants]

Superstacks - isolate and by-pass them. No need for prolong sieges at this time in the war.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Superstacks - isolate and by-pass them. No need for prolong sieges at this time in the war.

Exactly what I hope to do in China where there is room to maneuver. [:)]

No turn from Erik yet. Which probably means the Manila attack went well! [:)]

[JocMeister]

I´m off to write what I hope is my final exam before becoming fully licensed. Only 3% of all electricians get the license and it you can´t really do better than that short of getting a engineering degree after 7 years in Uni. So its a really big deal if I make it!

Keep those fingers crossed for me today! [&o]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m off to write what I hope is my final exam before becoming fully licensed. Only 3% of all electricians get the license and it you can´t really do better than that short of getting a engineering degree after 7 years in Uni. So its a really big deal if I make it!

Keep those fingers crossed for me today! [&o]

Nice, good luck!

[JocMeister]

Thanks Lokasenna! I think the exam went well. I´ll know next week. [:)]

Big events in the game. Stay tuned! [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Manila is liberated![/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I did certainly not expect this. Not until 2-3 more attacks. I´m very, very pleased with how quickly this went once air supremacy was established. [:)]

I´m not going to let Eriks hints that this was just a matter of piling everything on one hex get to me. He did the same thing happily in China 3 years ago. And as a matter of fact I did NOT pile everything on here. The Lingayen troops are still at Iloilo (2200 AV). I have the theatre reserve sitting at Batangas (2800 AV) plus another 1200 AV rotated out from Manila. All in all 12 divisions took place in the assault against Japanese 8 divisions. Hardly a matter of piling everything on.

Besides he chose to make a stand at Manila and now the butchers bill for that decision was due. I don´t think it was a very good place to make a such a huge commitment but he probably had his reason. But I identified the weaknesses with exposed position and lack of supporting airfields and took advantage of it. So I´m going to enjoy the moment and not let the hints get to me. [:)]

But its good that Erik thinks its all I got. Now I can move forward with the next target while we mop up at Luzon. Erik is moving troops north. Probably going to try and fly as much as possible out. Won´t let him do that though. Starting tomorrow I will start closing all airfields.

Next operation is already starting. I´ve spotted another mistake that I intend to exploit. [:)] Depending on troop recovery I hope I can launch in early March as planned. [:)]

The turn netted me 3553 VPs and I´m tantalising close to a 1:1,5 VP advantage.

Did I mention it was a massacre? [:D]

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 221137 troops, 3811 guns, 6481 vehicles, Assault Value = 8302

Defending force 81597 troops, 1128 guns, 877 vehicles, Assault Value = 1566

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 2 [&o][&o][&o]

Allied adjusted assault: 4223

Japanese adjusted defense: 851

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied forces CAPTURE Manila !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
32224 casualties reported [X(]
Squads: 1391 destroyed, 45 disabled [&o][&o][&o]
Non Combat: 803 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 502 destroyed, 14 disabled
Guns lost 559 (510 destroyed, 49 disabled)
Vehicles lost 644 (640 destroyed, 4 disabled)
Units retreated 26
Units destroyed 6

Allied ground losses:
3075 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 332 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 134 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 63 disabled
Guns lost 83 (2 destroyed, 81 disabled)
Vehicles lost 122 (15 destroyed, 107 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

[JocMeister]

PS, All who think my armor will have a field day pursuing those shattered troops raise your hands... [;)]

[ny59giants]

Only the dot base of Bayombong to slow you down from racing to Aparri. Once you capture Cabanatuan, then you get to close the pocket with the capture of Lingayen. All those shattered troops will be stuck. Luzon is yours now!! [&o][:)][&o]

[Encircled]

Well done that man!

[princep01]

First let me echo the hopes of all that you hit the jackpot on your licensing test.  Actually, while we do get caught up in our game and spend inordinate amounts of time on it, the game pales in importance when compared to major career advances.  I hope it goes very well for you.
 
That said, I must congratulate you on the stellar victory at Manilagrad.  It was, as you say, nothing short of massacre.  Well done.....and, the real massacre on Luzon commences now.  Few imperial warriors on Luzon are likely to live to fight another day.
 
While I did read Obvert's AAR early on, I haven't read his side of the tale in awhile.  My guess is that Manila was designed to slow your breakneck advance for a long time.  In one sense, it did have that effect.  I think you have fought for this victory for a couple of months.  One can only speculate if Erik now considers the losses he took and will take on Luzon as a victory by delay.  Since it is only February and you are apparently prepared to move quickly on to other targets, I would assess the battle of Manila as a major victory for you, but I can see where Obvert might see it as accomplishing a longer term goal.  What happens in the very near term (next month or so) my leave him thinking differently. 
 
Pursue, cleanse Luzon, but spring your next step forward soon, admiral.  The goal of ultimate victory is yet ahead and the path looks cruel and bloody.  One can see kamakazis  becoming a more frequent menace.  I must say though that you have had some spectacular advances over the last two months.  Very nice planning and execution.  From Tavoy, to Bangkok, to Saigon and Hanoi; thru the DEI and slowing if not cutting off oil imports from Palembang; you have achieved a great deal in 2 months. 

[DOCUP]

Good luck on your exam. Great job at Manila. Keep pushing. Come on Blood and Guts slap some men around and wave your pearl handled pistol like a mad man.

[zuluhour]

[Crackaces]

Although the IJ have to worry about defending the home islands recent developments lead me to believe that China offers a particular problem for the IJ at this point. You can get way past Hong Kong and into Korea threatening the Manchukuo garrison. The Russians will activate any turn beyond 800 once the garrison falls below 8000 unadjusted AV. As I look a the situation you could quite possibly activate the Russians possibly in May or June with the right axis of attack.

No need to accumulate the denominator for the IJ by messing with the Home Islands .. victory is possible in China ...[8D]

[zeeshan145]

Very great service you give on this forum which tell every thing about their features briefly

[JocMeister]

Thanks guys! [:)]

Since Ida decided that 22:00-04:30 is all of the sudden "awake time" I spent the night rereading my own AAR and looking at older saves reminiscing about the past. It was a good read. Man, I did things stupidly in 42-43. [:D]

Anyway, back to the present. I´m sure Erik indeed had intended for Manila to be a huge delay. In that sense I think it failed quite badly. The first attack on Manila was ordered on the 4th of January and fell on the 10th of February. So just a tad over a month with very heavy Japanese losses for negligible losses to the allies. Rereading my own AAR I think I kind of stumbled upon the downfall of Manila. It actually started in late 44 with the total collapse of the Japanese MLR with the swift advance into the Moluccas and Mindanao. Looking at those older saves Erik had neglected (or lacked resources) to get a defense in depth up. Once past Sorong there were no airfields and no forts higher than 3.

After Mindanao fell Erik did what has been his MO so far. Instead of building up many smaller supporting AFs on Luzon he maxed out only Clark and Bangkok (which was at 42 levels in late 44) and built forts at Manila. His statement that he had 600 engineers there seems to support that. He has relied on this tactic throughout the game now creating huge aerodromes/bastions at places like Rangoon, Bangkok, Rabaul but doing so on the expense of other airfields and location. The allies have no problem building two or three level 9 AFs. Even 5 as I recently did at Iloilo and Luzon. But I don´t think the Japanese have that ability because they lack the engineering power. This tactic has worked for him in a sense that closing those places have been costly for the Allies. At least Manila was. Rabaul and Rangoon not so. But once closed/bypassed they stay closed removing Japanese airpower in the whole region.

Erik has repeated this behavior throughout 44 and continues to do so now in China and on Formosa building two new Superstacks (Mk3 and Mk4) of 200.000 men each. One in China and one on Formosa. This is the mistake I´m referring too and I have a good idea on how to exploit this.

Next big battle will certainly be somewhere on the HK-Formosa-Okinawa line if I decide to go there. I predict Erik will throw everything including the KB and the 12 BBs into that. He has invested heavily into this line with Level 9 AFs at HK, Canton, Takao and Taihoku. KB and the Battlewagons are sitting at Shanghai waiting. The problem with this defense is that its shallow. Once broken there is nothing behind it. And its short...only 20 hexes from HK to Naha. And it has its achilles heel... [:)]

I don´t want to make it sound like criticism towards Erik. He most probably have a very good reason for continuing on with the same tactics. And for all I know it might work for him this time. I just personally don´t think he has managed he resources in terms of defense in the best way possible. He has lacked that crucial defense in depth with supporting assets. Perhaps it comes down to different philosophies or preferences. I also have most of the cards and complete knowledge of the allied OOB and capabilities. Obviously Erik can´t have the same knowledge.

Right now I´m with Crackaces belief that the main Japanese weakness is China. The only thing standing between the total collapse of China is the superstack Mk4. Once that is defeated or isolated China is wide open. I´m going to start a recon in depth operation to verify this but I´m pretty sure I will find empty bases. I still have my 2nd and 3rd phase targets in mind (they are almost ready prep wise) but I´m starting to wonder if I´m better off just dumping them in China, wreck Mk4 stack and run amok all they way to Shanghai.

What worries me with China is if I stall. It would take forever to pull out and head in another direction. I AM running against the clock here.

This also completely bypasses Erik last line of defense in the HK-Formosa-Okinawa line coming up behind it. Kind of like the Maginot Line! [:D]

VP wise im not sure what is best. I need 25.000 more VPs for an AV. Not impossible considering I gained 32.000 in the last 140 turns. In those 140 turns the VP ratio went from 1,1:1 to 1:1,5

I´m heading out of town for a day and won´t be back until tomorrow evening. I´ll take my crappy laptop with me and all the saves I have to ponder the situation. But right now China looks like a pretty good way to proceed. Shanghai alone is 2700 VPs. 30.000 proper Allied AV (US, OZ and Brit troop) running amok around in China marching on Manchuria has to be the worst kind of Japanese nightmare? [:D]

I had asked Erik if he could get me the replay before I leave but havn´t heard anything back from him.

EDIT: Just got the replay but no time for an update before I leave! Sorry guys. See you tomorrow with one! [:)]