Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[Captain Cruft]

Low-level Naval Attack

The Beta makes this vastly less effective. Nothing to do with CAP interception, it's the enhanced flak. Whereas previously (in sandbox) I could sink everything in sight with 500 planes attacking over a few days, using the Beta only about 25% of the targets even get damaged and the striking airgroups are pretty much wiped out in one go. The targets in question being large mixed CV, BB and Amphibious TFs.

We still have a HR against it our game though, except for F, FB and AB types.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Low-level Naval Attack

The Beta makes this vastly less effective. Nothing to do with CAP interception, it's the enhanced flak. Whereas previously (in sandbox) I could sink everything in sight with 500 planes attacking over a few days, using the Beta only about 25% of the targets even get damaged and the striking airgroups are pretty much wiped out in one go. The targets in question being large mixed CV, BB and Amphibious TFs.

We still have a HR against it our game though, except for F, FB and AB types.

Ah, so I remembered correctly. I have to dig that up in your AAR and reread it. [:)]

Glad to hear its working better in the BETA. So basically its the flak disrupting the attack runs causing less hits and shooting down planes? But CAP is still unable to interact with the low level incoming raids?

[Lokasenna]

Yes, with the beta and database changes, I think low nav attacks are probably working fine now. Still, flying in low cuts the detection time a lot... It would be the flak that really makes a difference, especially the Allied flak.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]12th February -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Some good progress this turn as no less the 5 bases are liberated by the allies! [:)]

------------------------
Luzon
------------------------
After some aerial strike the armor blast the opposition at Cabanatuan.

Ground combat at Cabanatuan (80,76)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 7114 troops, 21 guns, 1098 vehicles, Assault Value = 799

Defending force 4162 troops, 12 guns, 94 vehicles, Assault Value = 21

Allied adjusted assault: 357

Japanese adjusted defense: 3

Allied assault odds: 119 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Cabanatuan !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender:
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2350 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 144 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 37 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 15 (15 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 72 (72 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 2
Units destroyed 4

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
5th USMC Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
1st USMC Tank Battalion
716th Tank Battalion
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
3rd USMC Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn

Defending units:
43rd Recon Regiment
28th Engr Rgt /1
187th JAAF AF Bn
216th Naval Const Bn /1
14th Area Army
13th Air Fleet /2

Armor continues north. The infantry reaches Clark. I ordered an attack here tomorrow despite the x3 terrain. Most of the Japanese troops are the shattered units from Manila. I don´t want to wreck my own troops messing with the timetable.

------------------------
Indochina
------------------------
Definitely looks like another Superstack forming. This will be Mk. 5. Sadly I can´t walk around this one. I don´t have the troops to both advance into China and make sure the LOC stays open.

Hmmm.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
Good progress here with another 2 empty bases cleared. We march on towards Soerabaja.

------------------------
Strat bombing
------------------------
The strike at Hiroshima/Kure was a complete failure. Not a single bomb hit the target. Only positive here is that I only lost 2 B29s. But it will be another 2 weeks to repair fatigue. I might try again though as weather was bad.

[bigred]

Definitely looks like another Superstack forming. This will be Mk. 5. Sadly I can´t walk around this one. I don´t have the troops to both advance into China and make sure the LOC stays open.

SWPAC is getting close enough(w/ Manila) where you are in supporting range of 14th army ops.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Fortress Formosa[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

So this is where we are going. The last Japanese stronghold. Erik has turned this into a massive fortress. Two level 9 AFs, 1 Level 5 AF and 2 Level 4 AFs. This is supported by quarter of a million men! [X(]

In range of my landing will be no less than four level 9 AFs, the KB and the entire Japanese battlefleet. Against this will be the entire Allied navy in support of the SWPAC and SOPAC commands. I havn´t counted but I think its some 16 IDs and around 15k AV. I´m confident I can secure Formosa and destroy the last remaining portion of the Japanese army outside China. The tricky part will be getting the troops on shore. Erik will see me coming and will have time to get everything into position.

I will just have to take the punishment and hope I can survive the first day. If I do I can land on day 2. If I don´t I will have to retire in shame and Erik will have bought more time.

The sheer mass of Japanese assets have forced me to make so adjustments to the overall plan. First I need to establish LBA on Northern Luzon and if possible close the AFs at Takao and Taihoku. I doubt I can do that though but I will try. I will also have to postpone the landings into early April or even mid April. The reason for this is that I want the Lingayen troops to reprep for Formosa. The bulk of the Formosa landings is prepped for Takao. I need a secondary landing site. So the Lingayen (2200 AV) troops will land on the southern tip of Formosa to secure a good beachhead for reinforcement and supply.

I´ve decided to play this as safe as I can. Rushing the biggest Amphibious OP of the war is probably not a good idea. So new target date for the landing is April 5th.

Here is the Fortress Formosa captured on a screen. Quite formidable! Here is where I really hate the prep system and how clumsy and inflexible it is. In the real war commanders would probably have looked at this and decided its not worth it. But I started prepping for it 2 months ago when there were only about 75k troops on Formosa. If I want to go somewhere else now I would need almost 3 months of new prepp time. Not an option at this stage when the clock is ticking...

[Powloon]

Congratulations on the successful conclusion of "Malingrad" looks like the capture of Luzon is now just a formality.

The Formosa operation is going to be tough (nothing like a bit of understatement [:)]). Are you planning to land at more than one base on the rail line? The reason I ask is have you factored in a way to cut the rail line to prevent him simply swamping the landing site with units from the other bases? Have you any plans to take any of the smaller off shore islands Batan or Ishigaki Island to give you potential LRCAP or is this a case of everything and the kitchen sink is going to Formosa?

Anyway good luck for when the time comes. One small point you are titling your posts as 44 which might be slightly confusing to casual readers.

Great AAR as always Joc!

[Barb]

Hi,
why are you trying to smash your head against the strongest part of the wall? Why all allies think they just can do with force and without brain? Have you read any of the military classics? Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems? Couldn't you find a single sentence, that you can use for your game?
Is really frontal assault the best thing you can up with at this stage of war????

just my 2 Euro cents [;)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Congratulations on the successful conclusion of "Malingrad" looks like the capture of Luzon is now just a formality.

The Formosa operation is going to be tough (nothing like a bit of understatement [:)]). Are you planning to land at more than one base on the rail line? The reason I ask is have you factored in a way to cut the rail line to prevent him simply swamping the landing site with units from the other bases? Have you any plans to take any of the smaller off shore islands Batan or Ishigaki Island to give you potential LRCAP or is this a case of everything and the kitchen sink is going to Formosa?

Anyway good luck for when the time comes. One small point you are titling your posts as 44 which might be slightly confusing to casual readers.

Great AAR as always Joc!

Thanks Powloon! [:)]

I was contemplating landing on the rail line at some point. But I decided it was a bit too risky getting in between Formosa and China unless I had the Chinese coast in my control. That seem unlikely to happen very soon so I decided to go for the southern part of Formosa instead!

I will indeed land on some of the smaller islands. I can´t remember which ones right now. But there are two of them that I will land on. Only small unit (RGTs) landings though but I hope naval and air bombardment can tip the balance. [:)] As you say even one or two airfields for LRCAP/Sweep will help a lot.

Good catch on the 44! I forgot to update my template! Sorted it now! [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Hi,
why are you trying to smash your head against the strongest part of the wall? Why all allies think they just can do with force and without brain? Have you read any of the military classics? Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems? Couldn't you find a single sentence, that you can use for your game?
Is really frontal assault the best thing you can up with at this stage of war????

just my 2 Euro cents [;)]

As I wrote in my post (I quoted it below as you seem to have missed it...): The limiting factor is prep time and prep time doesn´t care one bit about "Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems"...

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Here is where I really hate the prep system and how clumsy and inflexible it is. In the real war commanders would probably have looked at this (Formosa) and decided its not worth it. But I started prepping for it 2 months ago when there were only about 75k troops on Formosa. If I want to go somewhere else now I would need almost 3 months of new prepp time. Not an option at this stage when the clock is ticking...

[Powloon]

With Formosa in your control does this put the HI (or parts of them) in range of your fighters?

I think I noticed from one of your earlier screenshots that Canton / HK etc still had some LI and HI. Have you any plans to neuter his industry there and exacerbate his supply problems in China? No point in him making super stacks if he can't supply them.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

With Formosa in your control does this put the HI (or parts of them) in range of your fighters?

I think I noticed from one of your earlier screenshots that Canton / HK etc still had some LI and HI. Have you any plans to neuter his industry there and exacerbate his supply problems in China?

Sadly not for Fighters. But it does bring the B29s within normal range which means twice the bomb load and less plane fatigue. If all else fails this is what will bring Japan to its knees!

The industry at Canton/HI is mostly toast. As I shift the "old" B29-1 forward these will get within normal range of HK/Canton and can knock it down to zero. Thanks for reminding me! Had forgotten I wasn´t done there! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]13th February -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

This is based solely on the "movie" as I havn´t gotten the turn file yet. More progress! [:)]

------------------------
Luzon
------------------------
The attack at Clark went well and I hope another attack tomorrow will shatter the fleeing troops!

Ground combat at Clark Field (79,76)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 105575 troops, 2157 guns, 2429 vehicles, Assault Value = 3975

Defending force 37702 troops, 525 guns, 387 vehicles, Assault Value = 616

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 5

Allied adjusted assault: 1188

Japanese adjusted defense: 322

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 5)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 5

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), preparation(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4747 casualties reported
Squads: 236 destroyed, 118 disabled
Non Combat: 34 destroyed, 133 disabled
Engineers: 19 destroyed, 27 disabled
Guns lost 164 (70 destroyed, 94 disabled)
Vehicles lost 54 (13 destroyed, 41 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
961 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 161 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 35 (1 destroyed, 34 disabled)

Assaulting units:
4th Marine Division
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
XI Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
25th Infantry Division
38th Infantry Division
77th Infantry Division
31st Infantry Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
754th Tank Battalion
I Corps Cmbt Engineer Regiment
37th Infantry Division
XIV Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
1st Marine Division
2nd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
16th NZ AA Bde
South Pacific
X Corps Artillery
X US Corps
1st Medium Regiment
147th Field Artillery Regiment
I US Corps
IX Corps Artillery
251st Field Artillery Battalion
XIV US Corps
2nd RAA Jungle Regiment
Sixth US Army
XXIV CorpsArtillery
1 USMC Seacoast Art
225th Field Artillery Battalion
XXIV US Corps
III US Amphib Corps
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XI Corps Artillery
9th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
XIV Corps Artillery
I Corps Artillery
694th Field Artillery Battalion
205th Field Artillery Battalion
XI US Corps
Southwest Pacific
33rd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
56th Ind.Mixed Brigade
1st Tank Division
102nd Division
56th Division
8th Division
61st Ind.Mixed Brigade
8th Exped. Force
158th JAAF AF Bn
157th JAAF AF Bn
91st JAAF AF Bn
28th JNAF AF Unit
21st JAAF Base Force /2
16th Army
27th JAAF AF Bn
216th Naval Construction Battalion
56th JNAF AF Unit
60th JNAF AF Unit
23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
12th JNAF AF Unit
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
3rd Rocket Gun Battalion
21st Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
20th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
33rd Ind. Engr Rgt /1

Hopefully I can go again tomorrow! I´ll probably have to shift some troops out though as they were already kind of beat up. BFs should arrive at Manila this turn to help with recovery and repair.

------------------------
Thailand/Indochina
------------------------
I managed to clear the rail on the east coast with the capture of the last two Japanese cities on the rail. This will allow the US corps to shift North towards Nanning. [:)]

And the best part of the turn... I finally got to those bloody hated transports! Grrrr! [:@]

Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 1st ACG/6th FS (C)
1LT Holt U. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 2
1LT Andrews O. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 2
2LT Anderson T. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 2
2LT Anderson T. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 3
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 80th FG/90th FS
1LT Cruickshanks, G.W. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 4
2LT Jones J. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 4
1LT Boain L. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 2
2LT Ellstrom, G.O. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 2
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 80th FG/90th FS
1LT Young J. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 2
2LT Vogel, J.E. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 2
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 23rd FG/76th FS
1LT Jones, C.L. of 80th FG/88th FS is credited with kill number 5
1LT Jones, C.L. of 80th FG/88th FS attains ace status!!
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 23rd FG/76th FS
2LT Gray A. of 80th FG/88th FS is credited with kill number 5
2LT Gray A. of 80th FG/88th FS attains ace status!!
2LT Dionne B. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 2
2LT Hart, G.E. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 3
2LT Gray A. of 80th FG/88th FS is credited with kill number 6
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 80th FG/88th FS
2LT Anderson, W. of 80th FG/88th FS is credited with kill number 3
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 1st ACG/6th FS (C)
1LT Young J. of 80th FG/90th FS is credited with kill number 3
MAJ Jenkins V. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 2
Transports flying to Cam Ranh Bay intercepted by 23rd FG/76th FS
1LT Sees, M.R. of 23rd FG/76th FS is credited with kill number 2
MAJ Jenkins V. of 1st ACG/6th FS (C) is credited with kill number 3

Aaaah, the satisfaction... [:)]

------------------------
Clearing the rear bases
------------------------
I´ve started using small low AV units to get back some of the smaller empty or almost empty. First up was Bathurst Island just north of Darwin. 60 less VP for Japan. [:)]

I´ll get some maps and stuff up when I get the turn up. Took the opportunity to update while Ida took her nap.

[JeffroK]

Be careful about the southern base on Formosa (Hengchun??)

Its connected by goat track to the rest of the island and everything takes months to move.

[Barb]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Barb

Hi,
why are you trying to smash your head against the strongest part of the wall? Why all allies think they just can do with force and without brain? Have you read any of the military classics? Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems? Couldn't you find a single sentence, that you can use for your game?
Is really frontal assault the best thing you can up with at this stage of war????

just my 2 Euro cents [;)]

As I wrote in my post (I quoted it below as you seem to have missed it...): The limiting factor is prep time and prep time doesn´t care one bit about "Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems"...

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Here is where I really hate the prep system and how clumsy and inflexible it is. In the real war commanders would probably have looked at this (Formosa) and decided its not worth it. But I started prepping for it 2 months ago when there were only about 75k troops on Formosa. If I want to go somewhere else now I would need almost 3 months of new prepp time. Not an option at this stage when the clock is ticking...

Sorry, must have missed it...
Anyway, I still think there must be some other possibilities around

[JocMeister]

JeffK,

Thanks for the warning. Hopefully I can get supply flowing and troops moving nonetheless! This will only be a secondary landing. Somewhere to land the support troops (that have had to little prep due to bad planning. Damn staff officers..[;)]) and supply. The main landing will still be Takao!


Barb,

There are loads of opportunities around. But I would have had to start preparing for them 100 days ago. Something I didn´t do for various reasons. I made the bed so now I have to lie in it! The bed says Formose so there we go.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Barb

Hi,
why are you trying to smash your head against the strongest part of the wall? Why all allies think they just can do with force and without brain? Have you read any of the military classics? Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems? Couldn't you find a single sentence, that you can use for your game?
Is really frontal assault the best thing you can up with at this stage of war????

just my 2 Euro cents [;)]

As I wrote in my post (I quoted it below as you seem to have missed it...): The limiting factor is prep time and prep time doesn´t care one bit about "Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, 36 stratagems"...

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Here is where I really hate the prep system and how clumsy and inflexible it is. In the real war commanders would probably have looked at this (Formosa) and decided its not worth it. But I started prepping for it 2 months ago when there were only about 75k troops on Formosa. If I want to go somewhere else now I would need almost 3 months of new prepp time. Not an option at this stage when the clock is ticking...

Land somewhere he isn't prepped for and your prep amount doesn't matter, either [;)].

But hey, it's your game! If you head for Formosa, you're in for an epic smashup. Maybe you can provide us with kami tests in the betas!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Land somewhere he isn't prepped for and your prep amount doesn't matter, either [;)].

But hey, it's your game! If you head for Formosa, you're in for an epic smashup. Maybe you can provide us with kami tests in the betas!

A while back in 44 I landed at Manus with something like 75 prep. The landing was unopposed (only no AV units present) but I still took something like 75% losses in disablements! Just a couple of weeks ago I accidently landed a ID on a no base hex (had forgotten to turn on "do not unload"). That ID was totally smashed with 95% disablements!

Needless to say I try to avoid landing without 100% prep. [:D]

I´m sure my landing will provide a very good testbed for the BETAs and kamis. I hope it won´t be too unpleasant for me! [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m sure my landing will provide a very good testbed for the BETAs and kamis. I hope it won´t be too unpleasant for me! [:D]

I'm going to venture here into the air model stuff where I usually get muddy. But here goes:

There's a lot of discussion about "beta" this and "beta" that and kamis. So far as I understand the betas have changed the last official patch in the areas of strike coordination. And that only. The rest of the air changes relating to altitude or anything else I thought were in the data changes Andy and Symon did off-line and which can be added to the game pre-start. (Along with the AA and ASW stuff from DBB.)

I am not here referring to the massive air data changes Symon is discussing now in the Scenario sub-forum. These were changes Andy discussed in various threads related to his Ironman work. For Lokasenna, I'm referring to the stuff we inserted into Scenario 2 in our game just before starting. Not the betas.

So, for this game, on-going now for years, I think there's only beta changes, not aircraft data changes, right? And all the betas do is affect coordination, not altitude effects. (4000 feet versus 100 feet, etc.) Kamis may not now, under the betas, come in 500 planes packages. But five 100-plane packages still wear down CAP's op points.

Am I really confused on this?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m sure my landing will provide a very good testbed for the BETAs and kamis. I hope it won´t be too unpleasant for me! [:D]

I'm going to venture here into the air model stuff where I usually get muddy. But here goes:

There's a lot of discussion about "beta" this and "beta" that and kamis. So far as I understand the betas have changed the last official patch in the areas of strike coordination. And that only. The rest of the air changes relating to altitude or anything else I thought were in the data changes Andy and Symon did off-line and which can be added to the game pre-start. (Along with the AA and ASW stuff from DBB.)

I am not here referring to the massive air data changes Symon is discussing now in the Scenario sub-forum. These were changes Andy discussed in various threads related to his Ironman work. For Lokasenna, I'm referring to the stuff we inserted into Scenario 2 in our game just before starting. Not the betas.

So, for this game, on-going now for years, I think there's only beta changes, not aircraft data changes, right? And all the betas do is affect coordination, not altitude effects. (4000 feet versus 100 feet, etc.) Kamis may not now, under the betas, come in 500 planes packages. But five 100-plane packages still wear down CAP's op points.

Am I really confused on this?

I think it would be more like 10 50-plane packages than 5 100-plane packages, at least from what I've seen. Even with an HQa present, it can be really hard to get LBA strike packages to go in all at once. I've seen units of 18 get split into 3 strikes with elements of other units in the same package, and all flying from the same base! It gets weird, but perhaps a better approximation of reality.

But yes, the point is that even though you won't see 500-plane strikes just thundering through CAP before they can shoot enough down, your CAP will still be worn out/scattered from the 5-10 strikes that come in instead.


@Joc - you must've gotten unlucky with that 95% disablements in a non-base hex. I did it recently with ~750 AV and only suffered about -30 or -40 AV. Early war, as Japan, I frequently land with minimal prep for the base I'm landing at. Losses occur, but they aren't that bad. If you find a weak point in his line where you can land 3000 AV with plenty of supply, and you suffer even say 500 AV in disablements on the landing, but he only has a few hundred there and has to scramble to get back to you... I'm just saying I'd rather do something like that than smash my fist into the wall that is Formosa.