Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Ah, to clarify the VP situation... We don´t "play for them". But right now I´m using them to motivate myself. I´m going to try for AV but if I get it we will likely just play on.

But right now its the only thing motivating me. So in a sense I do play for them! But WE don´t! Fuzzy enough? [:D]

[Lokasenna]

You'll get a nice fat wad of VPs once you clear out the DEI and Singapore (with the stuff from Java/Sumatra?), which you appear to be doing at a reasonable pace.

Couple of tiny hints for landing on Hokkaido:

Since you pretty much have to land on the eastern side of the island, avoid Wakkanai at first as it starts with CD guns and is one of the defense points for the Sea of Japan. Choose Bihoro or Kushiro as your initial point - you'll be landing completely unopposed by CD fire unless he's brought in some of the special base forces, most of which only have 8cm guns anyway (Wakkanai has some 15cm's and change). I like Kushiro because it has a bigger port. Bring Seabees, build the airfields. Each can reach AF9.

Just know that you'll be facing whatever's left of the IJN at that point, as once you're on Hokkaido he has no need to defend further afield and therefore no need for ships. Prepare accordingly.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

You'll get a nice fat wad of VPs once you clear out the DEI and Singapore (with the stuff from Java/Sumatra?), which you appear to be doing at a reasonable pace.

Couple of tiny hints for landing on Hokkaido:

Since you pretty much have to land on the eastern side of the island, avoid Wakkanai at first as it starts with CD guns and is one of the defense points for the Sea of Japan. Choose Bihoro or Kushiro as your initial point - you'll be landing completely unopposed by CD fire unless he's brought in some of the special base forces, most of which only have 8cm guns anyway (Wakkanai has some 15cm's and change). I like Kushiro because it has a bigger port. Bring Seabees, build the airfields. Each can reach AF9.

Just know that you'll be facing whatever's left of the IJN at that point, as once you're on Hokkaido he has no need to defend further afield and therefore no need for ships. Prepare accordingly.

Thanks Lokasenna, solid advice! Didn´t have a clue about the CD guns. [&o]

Not sure I´ll be going yet. But I have every recon that can reach putting the eye on Hokkaido right now. If I don´t find a superstack there I´m going. Screw prepp. [:D] I´ll put 15k AV ashore and see how much is left when the dust settles! [:D]

To be honest I wouldn´t be surprised if that is about all I find. It fits with the way Erik has been doing stuff. No reserves and everything up on the front. There is a good chance forts are low too...

But I´m getting ahead of myself. Lets wait for recon! [:)] But it would be nice not having to land on Formosa... [;)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Hokkaido[/font]
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Being too impatient to wait for the turn I decided to open up Intel Monkey...every allied player should have this on the computer. If you havn´t gotten it yet you can find the DL in witpqs sig! [:)]

If this is accurate (it usually is) all Erik has on Hokkaido is 2 IDs. The 7th which is a solid ID. And the 77th which is crap. Crappy TOE and crappy MRL/EXP. From the look of it there is less than 1000 AV on Hokkaido right now. [X(]

So I guess we go then?! Or am I missing something? Why doesn´t he have 2 IDs on each potential landing site? Has he really, really dropped the ball on this one or is there something I´m missing? He can´t transfer the HI troops to Hokkaido right? This is too good to be true?

[Lokasenna]

That is the starting location for the 7th Division. It's criminal if he didn't move even their piddly 5 engineers/48 engineer squads to another base to start building forts.

[JocMeister]

Have to admit I´m slightly annoyed and frustrated right now. I was promised a turn late afternoon or possible in the evening yesterday but no turn is up and no communication. This have sadly become the norm lately. No turn and no word. It happens almost every day now.

I have to admit that for the first time since we started this game I´m starting to wonder if this game is going to slowly fade out. Since the fall of Manilagrad we have barely made 5 or 6 turns. We usually managed 2-3 turns per day and even more on the weekends. Erik knows we are playing against the clock here since I´ve told him that once the second baby arrives in early April I will have to drop this game and the AAR. Being on the defensive waiting for allied moves can´t be much different than playing the allies in 42. Turns take no time once you got things in motion. He doesn´t even have to worry about convoys and moving fuel/oil around anymore. The turns should take 30 min tops so I have no clue why we have almost come to a complete stop. I get the motivation can be tough at this stage. But so was my motivation in late 42/early 43 when the entire USN and China was gone. I still sent him the turns and if I didn´t I always let him know why and when it was coming.

This game is massive psychological drain. Having to deal with the frustration and stress of not getting the turns added to that...To be honest I think I rather drop it now then slowly seeing it fade away in a month. I´m going to give Erik one more week to straighten out on his own or I´ll give him an ultimatum to do so or drop the game.

[princep01]

Ahhhh, this lament is heard all too often in WitPAE.  Once the exhilerating advances stop and the avalanche of US steel and aluminum sky begin to grind down the japanese war machine, the IJ player suddenly develops household and other  distractions that just make it impossible to continue.  In other words, I'm glad to administer a sound thrashing on you, but once the whip hand shifts, the pain of the lash is far more than I can bear....hence, I quit.  Happens all the time and not just in thsi game.
 
Hopefully, Obvert will man up and face the storm, using every bit of wit and experience attained in the game to stop you short of victory.  So few games reach this level, that it is very instructive to the viewing public regarding late game strategies and tactics.  I hope he will continue.  If not, another player is dropped from my inventory of those I would like to play.  Good luck. 

[JocMeister]

Thanks Princep!, I got the turn a couple of hours ago. A day later then I was told...[8|]

Havn´t had a proper look yet but recon shown Hokkaido is indeed "empty!" So to Hokkaido we go then. Now the question is HOW do we get to Hokkaido. Its going to be a logistical nightmare! [X(] Don´t want to just pack everything up and leave tomorrow. I need to plan this properly and do it the right way.

LOC is going to be Midway - Hokkaido. So I need to prepare Midway for the increased traffic. And I need to construct some sort of ruse. There is no way the entire navy and 15 IDs are going to leave Luzon unnoticed and travel to Hokkaido. Feint towards Bonins perhaps? The would look like a credible target for the entire navy.

I also need to make sure Erik can´t shift the troops from Formosa. So I need to isolate Formosa...lots and lots of stuff to do and find a solution to! Fun! [:)]

[JocMeister]

Having looked more closely at the turn I´m no longer as enthusiastic about Hokkaido as I was a couple of hours ago. While it is certainly up for grabs I´m not sure I have the logistics in place to support the invasion properly. The closest base is as I mentioned Midway. If I had been on the Bonins or had the NOPAC in my hands perhaps...

IF and I say IF I suffer a catastrophic CV defeat on the way to or during the landing its basically game over for me. There is no way I could support the troop on Hokkaido nore get supply and everything in place. As I said the closest allied base is Midway a staggering 54 hexes from Hokkaido.

While I love the idea of exploiting this mistake I just feel its a bridge too far. Or long in this case. We have yet to see what the Kamis can do and its a real possibility that Erik can gain complete control of the airspace over Hokkaido using endless supply of fighters and pilots. I still have SOME time. Going all on for Hokkaido feels a bit desperate and I´m not certain I need to be at this stage.

I´m not going to change any prep just yet. But I would love to hear some thought. Pro or cons for Hokkaido both. I think I have come up with a better idea. I´ll keep it to myself for a little longer though. Lets decide on Hokkaido first!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Thanks Princep!, I got the turn a couple of hours ago. A day later then I was told...[8|]

Havn´t had a proper look yet but recon shown Hokkaido is indeed "empty!" So to Hokkaido we go then. Now the question is HOW do we get to Hokkaido. Its going to be a logistical nightmare! [X(] Don´t want to just pack everything up and leave tomorrow. I need to plan this properly and do it the right way.

LOC is going to be Midway - Hokkaido. So I need to prepare Midway for the increased traffic. And I need to construct some sort of ruse. There is no way the entire navy and 15 IDs are going to leave Luzon unnoticed and travel to Hokkaido. Feint towards Bonins perhaps? The would look like a credible target for the entire navy.

I also need to make sure Erik can´t shift the troops from Formosa. So I need to isolate Formosa...lots and lots of stuff to do and find a solution to! Fun! [:)]

I'm glad we were able to nudge you away from Formosa [;)].

If you make it look like all 15 are heading for the Bonins, he won't believe it due to stacking. I'd create a couple of empty invasion fleets once you're off of Luzon and preparing to land at Hokkaido, and hold them within recon range of Formosa but out of LBA strike range. I'd also hold enough of your CVs back behind them, not visible, in case he decides to send KB after your "invasion fleets" for free VPs. And then I'd hit Kushiro and/or Bihoro with a sledgehammer.


@Princep - I expect Obvert to stick this out to the bitter end. Has he been busy IRL lately? Maybe more than demotivation is causing the delay in turns.

[Flicker]

Go for it!

IMO an invasion of Hokkaido would be very entertaining to your readers.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]15th-16th February -45[/font]
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While the 15th was uneventful there were some action over Luzon on the 16th.

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Luzon
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Some Japanese fighters rose to challenge on Luzon today.

Morning Air attack on 217th Naval Construction Battalion, at 79,75 (Lingayen)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 19 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 46
Ki-84r Frank x 14
Ki-100-I Tony x 19

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100-I Tony: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 4 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Lingayen , at 79,75

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 30 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 41
Ki-84r Frank x 13
Ki-100-I Tony x 9

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 3 destroyed

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Morning Air attack on Lingayen , at 79,75

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 35
Ki-84r Frank x 10
Ki-100-I Tony x 8

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 1 destroyed

The day end in a draw with 52 planes shot down on both sides. Obviously a decisive Japanese victory. I can´t afford the losses but he can. I hope for some payback tomorrow as we will strike the AFs hopefully catching some of them on the ground. But I bet Erik pulls his "vanishing act" and disbands them back to the pools before tomorrow.

No ground combat as we continue to chase the fleeing Japanese. Most of the troops should reach Lingayen tomorrow.

No action anywhere else. I´m still torn about the Hokkaido landing. I think today showed quite clearly I need to keep my AFs out of reach from his sweeps or I will pretty quickly run out of fighters. Basically returning to 42 tactics in earnest.

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CV plane upgrades
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As the CVs rest up I took the opportunity to upgrade all DBs/TBs to the latest models. The have the benefit of being SR 1. That will help a lot to keep as many planes operational as possible. This will also allow me to streamline the VRF squadrons better as I only have 1 DB/TB model operational on the CVs.

3 More heavy CVs will arrive to Luzon within the week. Always nice to have more of them! [:)]

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Strat bombing
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We hit the HI at Shanghai with pretty disappointing results. Only 19 HI knocked out. I´ve decided to go again straight away. Tomorrow we also hit Osaka...only 140 B29 this time though. I´m running out of them so if I suffer the usual losses tomorrow I´ll have to pull them from combat for 2 months and let them fill out. [8|]

[bigred]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Have to admit I´m slightly annoyed and frustrated right now. I was promised a turn late afternoon or possible in the evening yesterday but no turn is up and no communication. This have sadly become the norm lately. No turn and no word. It happens almost every day now.

I have to admit that for the first time since we started this game I´m starting to wonder if this game is going to slowly fade out. Since the fall of Manilagrad we have barely made 5 or 6 turns. We usually managed 2-3 turns per day and even more on the weekends. Erik knows we are playing against the clock here since I´ve told him that once the second baby arrives in early April I will have to drop this game and the AAR. Being on the defensive waiting for allied moves can´t be much different than playing the allies in 42. Turns take no time once you got things in motion. He doesn´t even have to worry about convoys and moving fuel/oil around anymore. The turns should take 30 min tops so I have no clue why we have almost come to a complete stop. I get the motivation can be tough at this stage. But so was my motivation in late 42/early 43 when the entire USN and China was gone. I still sent him the turns and if I didn´t I always let him know why and when it was coming.

This game is massive psychological drain. Having to deal with the frustration and stress of not getting the turns added to that...To be honest I think I rather drop it now then slowly seeing it fade away in a month. I´m going to give Erik one more week to straighten out on his own or I´ll give him an ultimatum to do so or drop the game.

I am sure someone would be willing to step forward to help you finish the game.

[JocMeister]

Its just getting to me that these "missed turns" arn´t being explained with a note. A short saying "sorry didn´t have time it will come tomorrow morning" would go a long way.

We live in an era of constant access to the internet. It takes no more than 30 seconds to take up the phone and send a short email. I even do that when I´m later than usual with a turn. I don´t think its unfair to expect a similar behavior in return or am I asking for too much? If I fail to deliver on the usual schedule I ALWAYS send a note apologizing and letting my opponent know when the next turn will come. I most certainly do if I explicitly says a turn will come at a certain point and I fail to deliver on that.

Not doing so is just...inconsiderate? Or is this just a cultural thing and I´m being to demanding?

[Barb]

Interesting look on the Hokkaido.
However as you said, your bases are too much away to support it.
On the other hand - if you feel your enemy is focused on Formosa (which he probably is), you can create a nice distraction by grabbing some bases at Bonins or Aleutians/Kuriles (I do not know how far you are) ... In fact you can simulate shift of your advance to those areas, while the real threat will remain focused on Formosa.

I doubt it would make your opponent to withdraw anything from Formosa, but it may at least stop any future reinforcements as they will be probably sent to guard against your distractions. With a bit of luck, you can get his fleet out of position for immediate intervention at Formosa by such move.

However be careful to assign sufficient forces for the task of distraction (yet not too many) - to make distraction believable, yet do not over-commit yourself. Play with smoke and mirrors

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]17th February -45[/font]
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Another B29 disaster...

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Luzon
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Troops finally shift hex to Lingayen. The attack will go in tomorrow preceded by naval and aerial bombardment.

We do manage to nail a few fighters on the ground at Appari. 13 Ki-83s are destroyed and the airfields at Appari and the base just to the south is closed. This Ki-83 is worrisome. Getting a 1:1 against the P51Ds are catastrophic for me at this point. Since HIs most likely won´t be an issue Erik can certainly afford the double cost of the two engines on the Ki-83.

Not looking forward to facing 2-300 of these planes per month for the remainder of the war. Does it ever end?

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Cam Ranh Bay
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A while back Erik started sending in 1 ship TFs to the base. Despite an enormous search blanket I never spot these until recon picks them up at the base itself. Any advice on how to deal with this? Do I have to permanently park DDs at CRB to prevent this? Anything I can do to spot these?

Night Time Surface Combat, near Cam Ranh Bay at 64,72, Range 4,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Asukasan Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD Ammen
DD Anthony
DD Charles Badger
DD Bush
DD Daly
DD Heywood Edwards
DD Paul Hamilton
DD McNair

I already have 24 CATs and 50 Avengers flying from Saigon.

Erik did have a CAP up this turn. A good day for the allies as 18 Sams are shot down for only two P38s in a combined LRCAP/Sweep. Erik is again trying to fly troops out. 5 Emilies are shot down by the LRCAP.

Morning Air attack on Cam Ranh Bay , at 64,72

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 48 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 17

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 9
P-38L Lightning x 16
P-51D Mustang x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38L Lightning: 1 destroyed

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Indochina/China
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Superstack Mk5. have now risen from 95.000 men to 150.000. I can´t see anything more moving here though. I don´t know if I should try to just break right through or do something else. At this point I mostly just want to start a supply burn in China. For that to happen I need to start combat.

I´ve decided to let the Chinese make a break for it shortly. They lack supply but its 22.000 AV and Erik will have to divert a big number of troops to deal with this.


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Strat bombing
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Another very bad day. 28 B-29s are lost over Osaka for only 1 Manpower hits. Again the weather really makes a mess of things. I´ll now rebase the B29s to Luzon and will stand them down for 2 months. Numbers have dropped from 210 to 120 in just a month. I can´t keep this up. His NFs are getting 0.5 B29s per airborne NF. Absolutely silly.

Night Air attack on Osaka/Kyoto , at 109,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms [:(][:(][:(]

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5d-S Zero x 13
J1N1-S Irving x 12
J1N1-Sa Irving x 37
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah x 13

Allied aircraft
B-29-25 Superfort x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5d-S Zero: 1 destroyed
J1N1-S Irving: 1 destroyed
J1N1-Sa Irving: 1 destroyed
Ki-46-III KAI Dinah: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-29-25 Superfort: 25 damaged
B-29-25 Superfort: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 1
Fires 650

At Shanghai we don´t do any better. Despite 26 direct HI hits only 1 point of HI is destroyed. Not a good day. At least none were lost here.

[Speedysteve]

Ridiculous indeed.............

[Powloon]

Commiserations on the B29 raids. Is it your opinion that the night fighters themselves are overpowered or simply that he is deploying them in ahistorical numbers or a combination of both? I'm guessing that the range that you are currently operating them is a factor with a lot of damaged planes becoming losses which wouldn't otherwise happen if you had bases closer to the HI?

Like your thinking regards Hokkaido another avenue of approach will complicate the strategic picture for your opponent making it more difficult for him to concentrate his defences (although as he is operating on interior lines he can probaly move his reserves such as they are to the threatened sector fairly rapidly). I wonder though if you will need to also pick up some of the Kurile islands to secure your SLOC?

If you are trying to keep him focused on the Formosa/Okinawa front then I think it would still be a good idea to continue with the operations to pick up the smaller islands in the area. You might get a chance to attrit his forces using the airfields in northern Luzon whilst still picking up bases that are useful in there own right

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Allied Carriers[/font]
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I´m going to have reorganize the whole CV fleet shortly. Right now I have 3 Fast CV TFs but now all are well above 500 planes per TF and all are above the optimal 15 ships TF size. With the arrival of 3 more Fast CVs I´m going to create a 4th TF.

Its going to be fiddly but I would like to keep each TF just under 400 planes and below 15 ships. In total the Fast CVs have about 1800 planes. Divided by 4 thats 450 planes though. Not really sure if its worth creating a 5th TF just to keep numbers under 400 and avoid the coordination penalty?

I could let the Brit CVs act in an own TF but I like to keep them with the main CVs to act as bomb magnets with their armored decking. Besides the Indefatigable (81 plane capacity) they are largely not much use with their 35 plane capacity.

The CVEs will have to keep working in these big 500 plane TFs though. I don´t have the escorts to spare to create another TF. I have 3 suchs TFs right now.

All in all the total number of carrier based planes are now around 3000. Reinforcement have started to dry up. "Only" 6 more Essexes and the Midway left in the cue. But only 1 is due this spring and 1 during the summer. The rest will show up in the autumn.

On the British side there is only the Implacable (81 CAP) and 7 CVLs left.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Commiserations on the B29 raids. Is it your opinion that the night fighters themselves are overpowered or simply that he is deploying them in ahistorical numbers or a combination of both? I'm guessing that the range that you are currently operating them is a factor with a lot of damaged planes becoming losses which wouldn't otherwise happen if you had bases closer to the HI?

Like your thinking regards Hokkaido another avenue of approach will complicate the strategic picture for your opponent making it more difficult for him to concentrate his defences (although as he is operating on interior lines he can probaly move his reserves such as they are to the threatened sector fairly rapidly). I wonder though if you will need to also pick up some of the Kurile islands to secure your SLOC?

If you are trying to keep him focused on the Formosa/Okinawa front then I think it would still be a good idea to continue with the operations to pick up the smaller islands in the area. You might get a chance to attrit his forces using the airfields in northern Luzon whilst still picking up bases that are useful in there own right

ARRRGH. I posted you a loooong reply that the forum ate. I´ll try to rewrite it later.

To sum it up in the meantime:
-Japanese ability to detect and intercept incoming strikes is a pure fantasy. They never had the capabilities.
-The most common Japanese NF (Irwing) can make intercept after intercept despite being 40MPH SLOWER than the B29. [8|]
-Japanese airborne radar is on levels with any modern radar we see today.
-Allied 4Es are built out of tinfoil and sheets of A4 paper all joined and secured by duct tape according to the game.
-Operating on extended range most certainly have an effect. How big? I hope we will see before the game is over. [:)]

-Hokkaido. Still not convinced. I would love to exploit this huge mistake but the logistics of it and distance from friendly bases make me reluctant. But I might have come up with an even better idea. I´ll keep it to myself for a while longer though. I need to check some things first! [:)] If it turns out impossible I might give Hokkaido another look. But right now I deem it too impractical.