Turn 38 – 5 March 1942
After a couple of very quiet turns, the latent volcano the front was, it spectacularly erupts. Q-Ball has grouped his Panzer Armies into two groups and has delivered powerful strokes in the Orel – Tula direction and in the Stalino – Valyuki direction. These two offensives have entailed a total of 57 battles, the highest since Turn 22, of which 45 have become Axis victories. This has meant 43,000 casualties for Q-Ball, evenly split between KIA and disabled, 518 artillery pieces and 84 AFV's. The Red Army has suffered 80,000 casualties (23k KIA, 54k disabled), losing as well 2,209 artillery pieces and 326 AFV's. The fight has been pretty intense.
In the air, the VVS has suffered as well a major defeat. Q-Ball has lost 20 fighters – Axis tactical aviation seems still to be away from the front – while I have lost over 300 planes in aerial combat alone.
It's interesting to see that the proportion of KIA vs. Disabled seems to be dependant on who is in the attack. Axis KIA vs. Disabled ratio seems to be 50%. Let's see how does that look for me when I counterattack.
Operational Situation Report
Bryansk Front 31st and 49th Army have been shattered in front of Orel after putting up a good fight. Q-Ball has advanced about 40 miles deep into my lines
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[/center]with no less than 8 Motorized divisions – 4 of them Panzer. Besides that he also tried to isolate a good chunk of 4th Army but he cam across 1st Shock Army positions. Six divisions and two tank brigades are in a quite difficult position.
Things in the south look really bad. Q-Ball has done here pretty much what he's wanted to
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[/center]Smashing through the lines of Southwestern Front 5th, 18th and 57th Armies. 16th Army – which traded a few units with 3rd Shock last turn – has been almost been destroyed by the onslaught. I can't put my finger on what's worse: having most of 18th Army encircled just east of Kupyansk or the fact that he's achieved an excellent position to pursue further operations. I need to consolidate my positions and reinforce.
Logistics and Organization
On this aspect I'm not particularly worried. Pools have plenty of equipment and replacement tanks and this turn I was able to put into the lines 120,000 recruits. Armaments production is steady at 91,000 points per turn, and I can't still believe my eyes when seeing that there are over 140,000 points on the Armaments pool. Besides that, I have 400 AP's in the pool. So here all I need to do is to carefully manage things.
Although the Blizzard hasn't brought about the demise of the Axis armies, I've got quite a few Guards conversions. The Red Army lists on his OOB 11 Guards Rifle Divisions and 1 Guards Cavalry Corps
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[/center]What I need to do this turn is to scoop all Airborne Brigades and put them out of harms' way. With Q-Ball attention to detail, I wouldn't be too surprised that he tries to make me very unhappy destroying as many of them as possible before Mud hits.
Operations
I counterattack the German spearhead northeast of Orel with 1st Shock and 60th Armies managing to push back two Panzer Divisions
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[/center]these two battles are quite interesting. In the north, Konev leads to victory the bulk of 1st Shock Army, inflicting a sharp defeat on 3rd PzDiv
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[/center]Note the proportion of Destroyed and Damaged ground elements. That's almost a neat 50-50 split. It also catches my eye that even winning the battle, the Soviets get 3 times as many destroyed elements and 4 times as many damaged elements as the Germans. To the south, 60th Army scores another victory
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[/center]you can see that the proportions I discuss above are more or less the same. In both cases I've needed to mass six times as much personnel as the Axis. I think that if the 1:1 → 2:1 rule had been in effect, both combats wouldn't have been losses. It's just a hunch, I know.
In the south I'm in full flight, I need to gather my forces
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[/center]I've redeployed 42nd and 4th Shock Army to make up for the huge gap that was developing just south of Voronezh. 47th Army – another of STAVKA reserves – goes forward, perhaps a bit recklessly, to establish a screen protecting the remnants of 18th, 57th and 16th Armies. 3rd Shock will be the anchor of Southern and Southwestern Fronts. I also need these troops to rest a bit: Q-Ball push to the north caused substantial damage.

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