Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

PB is actually lightly held. Perhaps its worth grabbing it just for the fuel. I have about 250 oil/refs in my hands right now but they are nowhere near enough to meet demand but its rising with 3 per day as I´m repairing. Perhaps the million fuel that will arrive in 30-40 days will be enough to keep me floating. I expect fleet demands to decrease for one reason or another once we have the next landing/battle out of the way.

Isn´t cocos an Atoll? I don´t like atolls... [:D]

Palambang is just a distraction from the main goal. You have enough xAK's to haul a hundred times what Palambang produces. The only way I'd mildly approve of taking Palambang would be a wider campaign to take Singapore back and simplify your lines of communication with Thailand.

Even at that, you're wasting time on a side-show operation in a side-show theater, at the expense of the main event.

You've cut the head off of the hydra, Joc! Don't waste time now fighting with the tentacles! Go for the kill!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

PB is actually lightly held. Perhaps its worth grabbing it just for the fuel. I have about 250 oil/refs in my hands right now but they are nowhere near enough to meet demand but its rising with 3 per day as I´m repairing. Perhaps the million fuel that will arrive in 30-40 days will be enough to keep me floating. I expect fleet demands to decrease for one reason or another once we have the next landing/battle out of the way.

Isn´t cocos an Atoll? I don´t like atolls... [:D]

Palambang is just a distraction from the main goal. You have enough xAK's to haul a hundred times what Palambang produces. The only way I'd mildly approve of taking Palambang would be a wider campaign to take Singapore back and simplify your lines of communication with Thailand.

Even at that, you're wasting time on a side-show operation in a side-show theater, at the expense of the main event.

You've cut the head off of the hydra, Joc! Don't waste time now fighting with the tentacles! Go for the kill!

Unless you're fighting for the Singapore VPs, which you've stated multiple times that you aren't.

If you've got forces in backwaters that wouldn't otherwise be used, and you have the time to spend on them during your turns, go for it. But as stated above, it shouldn't detract from your main goals.

[paullus99]

I think the feint towards the north, while hitting Formosa is a great idea - all worthwhile if you can keep up the recon & spread it out a bit too....you need to get him to jump in the other direction while you hit him in a vulnerable spot.

[JocMeister]

Hey guys! [:)]

I think I´m going to land on Sumatra. Not so much for the fuel as Erik has abandoned the place. Since its free of charge I might as well take what is offered. I only have a reinforced Corps operating here (2 OZ IDs 1 African ID and 2 OZ Tank RGTs). They might as well enjoy themselves to Sumatra as sitting on Java doing nothing. The fuel at PB is a nice bonus. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]3rd March -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

My patience payed off... [:'(]

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Luzon
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Ha, Erik sweep completely blind into Batangas. Having no recon of the place that is risky. It so happens that I have 850 Fighters there... [:'(]

Morning Air attack on Batangas , at 79,78

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 76

Allied aircraft
Spitfire VIII x 68
P-51D Mustang x 145
F4U-1A Corsair x 39
F4U-1D Corsair x 45
F6F-3 Hellcat x 37
F6F-5 Hellcat x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Spitfire VIII: 1 destroyed

21 Ki83 are shot down for 1 Spitfire. Tihi. Guess that will put an end to the sweeping! [:D]

Troops at Iba are so fatigued I had to stand them down now to rest for a couple of days. Defenders are still making a stand. In the north Japanese resistance is reduced to only 1 base.

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DEI
------------------------
Not too surprising Batavia is secured on the first attack.

Ground combat at Batavia (49,98)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 26692 troops, 277 guns, 470 vehicles, Assault Value = 1173

Defending force 5983 troops, 28 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 62

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 4

Allied adjusted assault: 756

Japanese adjusted defense: 107

Allied assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 4)

Allied forces CAPTURE Batavia !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3037 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 151 destroyed, 63 disabled
Engineers: 69 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 14 (4 destroyed, 10 disabled)
Units retreated 7
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
186 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 2 disabled

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China
------------------------
Troops reach Superstack Mk5. A bombardment is ordered for tomorrow. I´m expecting between 5-6k Japanese AV.

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Japanese Recon
------------------------
Has virtually ceased completely. Could supply be so bad he has to stand them down? Or has he just stopped caring? I had a recon flight over Manila and Iloilo a couple of days ago. Thats about it. Still flying in China though.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99
I think the feint towards the north, while hitting Formosa is a great idea - all worthwhile if you can keep up the recon & spread it out a bit too....you need to get him to jump in the other direction while you hit him in a vulnerable spot.

Yeah, I think it would work. But I need to see if Erik will shift those 300.000 Jap troops first. Still looks like Erik is evacing some of them but I´m not certain yet. I have given myself 2 more weeks before making up my mind. Can´t wait forever. Hokkaido is looking more and more enticing...Sadly the troops don´t gain prep while at sea. And its a long journey.

[paullus99]

Formosa, then perhaps Korea?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Formosa, then perhaps Korea?

The sky is the limit! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]4th March -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Erik continues to splurge his Ki-83.

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Luzon
------------------------
Troops rest today. Most of the units not intended for Luzon have left the Island for various destinations. Some AS will go to China in anticipation of the air offensive there. In a sign of the complete collapse of IJN power in the South China Sea Allied TFs cross from Luzon and back completely unescorted and at will.

Erik continues to lift out troops. How this works in the game is so ridiculous it makes my blood boil every time I encounter it. [:@] I´m not helped by the fact that for some incredible stupid reason the game displays airbase damage instead of runway damage. Who the HECK cares about airbase damage??? So the fields gets operational a couple of days before I know they are giving Erik ample opportunity to lift stuff out before I close them again. The flying boats are impossible to stop. There is nothing short of LRCAP you can do to stop them.

It makes me furious every time I encounter this. [:@]

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China
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The first bombardment does more damage then anticipated. Its all about burning supply at this point. 8 Japanese divisions in place. I´ll probably do a deliberate attack here in a week or so. I have lots of troops prepping for various ports on the Chinese coast. The rough idea here is to take advantage of Eriks reluctance to give ground. If his troops are starting to shows signs of collapsing he will not withdraw but rather feed more troops into the grinder. Those troops will have to come from the Canton/HK Superstack protecting the coast. Once he has sent too much into the grinder I will land behind him.

Ground combat at 71,56 (near Lang Son)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 188094 troops, 3818 guns, 4002 vehicles, Assault Value = 7829

Defending force 115766 troops, 1113 guns, 577 vehicles, Assault Value = 3832

Japanese ground losses:
248 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
176 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 9 (1 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
36th British Division
3rd Cavalry Regiment
254th Armoured Brigade
27th Infantry Division
255th Indian Tank Brigade
I Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
18th British Division
19th Motorised Division
9th Indian Division
Provisionl Tank Brigade
IV Corps Engineer Battalion
18th Cavalry Regiment
50th Tank Brigade
XXXIII Corps Engineer Battalion
6th Australian Division
Guides Cavalry Regiment
43rd Infantry Division
17th Motorised Division
14th Indian Division
14th Army Engineer Battalion
2nd British Division
Gardner's Horse Regiment
XV Corps Engineer Battalion
209th Combat Engineer Battalion
11th PAVO Regiment
5th Indian Division
41st Infantry Division
26th Indian Division
7th Infantry Division
9th Australian Division
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
208th Field Regiment
16th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
87th Medium Regiment
25th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
1st West African AA Regiment
12th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
55th Heavy Regiment
28th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
8th Belfast Heavy Regiment
17th Indian Light AA Regiment
18th SP Field Artillery Regiment
134th (East Ang) Regiment
85th British AT Gun Regiment
86th Medium Regiment
15th Indian Heavy AA Regiment
30th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
2/13th Field Regiment
2/11th Field Regiment
India Command
48th Light AA Regiment
23rd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
8th Medium Regiment
134th Medium Regiment
163rd Light AA Regiment
2nd Indian Heavy AA Regiment
14th Army
33rd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
Southeast Asia
2/9th Field Regiment
6th Medium Regiment
31st Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
85th Medium Regiment
24th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
III Indian Corps
XV Indian Corps
1st Indian Medium Regiment
Provisional GMC Grp

Defending units:
51st Division
58th Division
15th Division
12th Ind.Infantry Brigade
60th Division
22nd Division
32nd Division
17th Division
3rd Division
65th Brigade
3rd RF Gun Battalion
21st Air Defense AA Battalion
7th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
8th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
17th Army
53rd Field AA Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
38th Army
4th Mortar Battalion
29th Army
2nd Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
12th RF Gun Battalion
25th Ind. Field Artillery Battalion
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
35th Army
28th RF Gun Battalion
14th Naval Construction Battalion

He also did another of those Ki-83 sweeps. Looks like this is the Japanese fighter we will see from now on. This one doesn´t go in blind though as Erik has a good DL on the base. Not sure what he was hoping for sweeping a 250 Fighter base.

Afternoon Air attack on Haiphong , at 68,57

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 28 NM, estimated altitude 32,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-83 x 41

Allied aircraft
Thunderbolt I x 113
Thunderbolt II x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-83: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Thunderbolt I: 2 destroyed

17 Ki-83s are shot down for 4 Thuds. I can´t understand these sweeps. I wonder if Erik is starting to get frustrated with the lack of air combat for the last 4-5 months. Its boring as heck so I can certainly understand him if thats the case. But for me there are no other option. Given Pax earlier numbers that a single ID trashed is the same as 20.000 AC shows the futility of trying to attrit the Japanese industry by destruction of its airforce. Planes are dirt cheap. So why bother? Not much fun but with the allied pools looking like they do I will remain passive and only appear in mass on defensive CAP.

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Hokkaido
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This is looking more and more like a viable option after all. I managed to approach it and wasn´t spotted until 9 hexes close! [X(] I sat at 11 hexes for 4 days without being spotted.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Fuel and Supply[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Given the recent discussion I decided to do a inventory and see whats around and whats coming in.

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Fuel
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Luzon: 350k
Mindanao: 250k
DEI: Empty

Production
Oil: 363
Ref: 277

Aboard AOs
250k

Incoming
About 1,5 Million within 40 days

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Supply
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Luzon: 1,1 M
Mindanao: 150k
DEI: 350k

Production
None

Incoming
1,8 million

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Overall situation
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While the numbers look big I estimate this to last perhaps 2-3 months. The allied war machine at this point absolutely gobbles fuel and supplies. I havn´t counted all the small bases but quite recently I had almost 3 million supply on Luzon. About 750k have been shipped to Indochina but thats still almost 1 million down. Some is of course on smaller bases or aboard the troops ships heading for Morotai, Mindanao or other rear bases.

To be completely honest I havn´t kept much an eye on this and I doubt I need to. Just make sure you keep the convoys rolling and it will be fine. But never ever for a moment think that "its enough now" and stop sending them. You will run out very fast. Especially fuel can disappear in no time. Its not only the was ships but having a thousand other ships uses A LOT of fuel. And some of them have to be refueled locally.

[Spidery]

I´m not helped by the fact that for some incredible stupid reason the game displays airbase damage instead of runway damage. Who the HECK cares about airbase damage???

If this is the case, then it is not working in accordance with the manual. Section 10.4 says it should be the average of service and runway damage.

Anyone interested in knowing whether fort building has been stopped cares about service damage.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Spidery

I´m not helped by the fact that for some incredible stupid reason the game displays airbase damage instead of runway damage. Who the HECK cares about airbase damage???

If this is the case, then it is not working in accordance with the manual. Section 10.4 says it should be the average of service and runway damage.

Anyone interested in knowing whether fort building has been stopped cares about service damage.

I just tested it and you are right. This didn´t work at one point but seems to be working now.

Fort building is only relevant in the early stages of the war. At least for an allied player. For the last 2 years knowing if the AF is open or not is much more important! To be honest I don´t think about forts that much. They are always between 3 and 6 everywhere and it doesn´t effect any tactical decisions. [:)]

[Spidery]

Fort building is only relevant in the early stages of the war.

Absolutely, but it is critical early for the Japanese.

So the average works well. If it is non-zero, fort building has been stopped. For runway damage, you can assume if the field is closed, service damage will be about 100 and can therefore determine runway damage.

[Powloon]

Hi Joc,

Firstly congratulations on the exam result I'm sure this resulted in a suitably large hangover [:)] Been a while since I have had to do any but I do remember the sense of relief (and the associated sore head) when they were over!

For what it is worth the Hokkaido option seems like the better option to me with diversionary landings on the off shore islands around Formosa to keep him firmly concentrated on that area. If you get established on Hokkaido I would say that would put you in a game winning position with several large airfields to base not just your B29s but also bring your other 4E bombers within range of the HI (not to mention being able to escort at least some of these raids).

On the other hand if you do land in Formosa (and prevail) you will still likely have to perform another large invasion to get you closer to the HI whilst giving your opponent at least another couple of months to prepare his inner defences and build out the divisions he is rescuing from the PI.

How is the industry reduction going in China? With your control of the South China Sea and the local Chinese industry destroyed it is difficult to see how he is going to be able to support any large force in China.

[Encircled]

I'd be looking at China in all honesty.

Taking a gamble now, after all the success you've had would be very risky

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Powloon

Hi Joc,

Firstly congratulations on the exam result I'm sure this resulted in a suitably large hangover [:)] Been a while since I have had to do any but I do remember the sense of relief (and the associated sore head) when they were over!

For what it is worth the Hokkaido option seems like the better option to me with diversionary landings on the off shore islands around Formosa to keep him firmly concentrated on that area. If you get established on Hokkaido I would say that would put you in a game winning position with several large airfields to base not just your B29s but also bring your other 4E bombers within range of the HI (not to mention being able to escort at least some of these raids).

On the other hand if you do land in Formosa (and prevail) you will still likely have to perform another large invasion to get you closer to the HI whilst giving your opponent at least another couple of months to prepare his inner defences and build out the divisions he is rescuing from the PI.

How is the industry reduction going in China? With your control of the South China Sea and the local Chinese industry destroyed it is difficult to see how he is going to be able to support any large force in China.

Hey! [:)]

Thank you. The having the last exam out of the way have indeed been a huge relief! I did have somewhat of a sour head yesterday to be honest! All it took was 3 small beers. A testament to my aging body! [:D]

I´m slowly working down the industry in China. Most of it already out since the campaign from Rangoon a year back. But there are dibs and drabs spread out all over the place. 15 here, 20 there, 5 there and so on. I have a very hard time getting the B29s to launch though. I think it might be due to weather. But I´m getting there. I have moved the "25s" forward to Luzon. Having no NF opposition means I should be able to cautiously operating them while still recovering force. I hope you are right that supporting the China army will be impossible for Erik. Thats the plan I´m working on. A reversed China where I have all the cards instead of the other way around in 42! [:)]

I´m so torn about Formosa. I´m still waiting to see if Erik has started a mass evacuation here or not considering the developments on Hokkaido. While it of course is a daunting task to take on 300.000 Japanese troops its also an opportunity to destroy what is left of the IJA outside China and Manchuria.

Hokkaido is still a great opportunity and I would love to exploit the complete negligence shown to the island. 1,3 IDs...! [X(] But the only troops I have to spare are the Formosa troops. No substantial reinforcements are coming until the ETO guys show up in 6 months. So its either Formosa or Hokkaido. Formosa I can go in two weeks. Hokkaido would mean 3 months...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I'd be looking at China in all honesty.

Taking a gamble now, after all the success you've had would be very risky

I think China will decide the remainder of the war. I do have a large amount of troops working this avenue. About 12.000 AV. If this proves enough to grind down the Jap army in China remains to be seen. I´m still very reluctant to pull more US troops for China. But some of them are prepping for targets on the Chinese coast. Not enough to establish and hold a beachhead on their own with the 200.000 Japanese troops at Canton/HK. But if Erik stays true to his MO he will soon start to move them out to reinforce his Nanning stack. That requires me to start putting the hurt on that stack obviously. But if the previous bombardment is any indication its looking good. [:)]

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I'd be looking at China in all honesty.

Taking a gamble now, after all the success you've had would be very risky

I think China will decide the remainder of the war. I do have a large amount of troops working this avenue. About 12.000 AV. If this proves enough to grind down the Jap army in China remains to be seen. I´m still very reluctant to pull more US troops for China. But some of them are prepping for targets on the Chinese coast. Not enough to establish and hold a beachhead on their own with the 200.000 Japanese troops at Canton/HK. But if Erik stays true to his MO he will soon start to move them out to reinforce his Nanning stack. That requires me to start putting the hurt on that stack obviously. But if the previous bombardment is any indication its looking good. [:)]

China is another sideshow theater. Advance until the Chinese troops have been able to break out, then start withdrawing troops for use elsewhere. A land campaign through China is going to eat up time like nothing else.

If you're insistant about Sumatra, take it, then pull some units from Southern China to clear Singapore. Follow this will massive supply hauls to Southern China.

You've a lot of high AV units with great experiance in China, don't let them go to waste fighting in China. Use them elsewhere, like Okinawa or islands thereabouts, to isolate Formosa from the Home Islands and lend credit to your deception.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
China is another sideshow theater. Advance until the Chinese troops have been able to break out, then start withdrawing troops for use elsewhere. A land campaign through China is going to eat up time like nothing else.

If you're insistant about Sumatra, take it, then pull some units from Southern China to clear Singapore. Follow this will massive supply hauls to Southern China.

You've a lot of high AV units with great experiance in China, don't let them go to waste fighting in China. Use them elsewhere, like Okinawa or islands thereabouts, to isolate Formosa from the Home Islands and lend credit to your deception.

Ah, lets agree to disagree on that point! [;)] (China, the rest I pretty much agrees with)

I think China is a deciding theater. Sideshow in terms of geographical placement maybe. But the perfect place to really start grinding Japanese HI and supply better used somewhere else. My main goal with China is not to grab land/bases but simply but force Erik to burn massive amounts of HI and supply.

The thing is I don´t really NEED more troops somewhere else. I have what? 15.000 AV in the SOPAC/SWPAC commands. AV is not the constraining factor but lifting capacity is. If I go for Hokkaido I don´t need another 10.000 AV. What I have is more then enough. In fact even splitting my forces in two I could most probably gain control anywhere on the map short of the HI. Even Formosa which is right now the most strongly defended place on the map (outside the HI)

The problem is GETTING there. Moving stuff out from China/Java is just going to add the logistical burden without adding to the outcome.

[Powloon]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I hope you are right that supporting the China army will be impossible for Erik. Thats the plan I´m working on. A reversed China where I have all the cards instead of the other way around in 42! [:)]

I wouldn't take my word for it I've still to get my first AI game past December 1941[:)] I would say that it is a good assumption though

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´m so torn about Formosa. I´m still waiting to see if Erik has started a mass evacuation here or not considering the developments on Hokkaido. While it of course is a daunting task to take on 300.000 Japanese troops its also an opportunity to destroy what is left of the IJA outside China and Manchuria.

Hokkaido is still a great opportunity and I would love to exploit the complete negligence shown to the island. 1,3 IDs...! [X(] But the only troops I have to spare are the Formosa troops. No substantial reinforcements are coming until the ETO guys show up in 6 months. So its either Formosa or Hokkaido. Formosa I can go in two weeks. Hokkaido would mean 3 months...

I get what you are saying about prep but after Formosa won't you have another 3 month period where you have reprep for another target and won't that mean you will be really cutting it fine if you are aiming for auto victory? I guess it comes down to whether you think Formosa is the game clincher or not.

One other thing occurs to me if you are seeing troop withdrawals from Formosa are you sure they are not simply the refugees he is airlifting out of the PI being sent back to be rebuilt?