Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Well, aren't B-29 night raids and him hoping he puts his night fighters in the right place at least an approximation of historical reality?

As for your perceived need to obtain 5:1 kill ratios since he can produce so many fighters (I doubt he's producing THAT many, but your point that Allied numbers are [a bit] lower is taken)... Your replacements come for free. His don't. Make him pay for them. Every 36 HI he spends on a fighter is 36 HI closer to breaking his HI bank.

Might be historical but it still not one bit fun. [:)]

I know Erik has done this correctly. He has a solid HI bank and he won´t run out. Not from aerial losses in any event. If he does it will because of all those wrecked IDs. [:)]

Assuming Pax is correct when he said 1 ID is worth the same amount of HI as 20.000 planes the math is pretty obvious. Its kind of easier to destroy one ID then 20.000 planes! [:D]

[paullus99]

I know you are sensitive to air losses right now, but you can pretty much end his fleet if you go after him now....he's hurt pretty bad & has gone to be on the run to recover....

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Well, aren't B-29 night raids and him hoping he puts his night fighters in the right place at least an approximation of historical reality?

As for your perceived need to obtain 5:1 kill ratios since he can produce so many fighters (I doubt he's producing THAT many, but your point that Allied numbers are [a bit] lower is taken)... Your replacements come for free. His don't. Make him pay for them. Every 36 HI he spends on a fighter is 36 HI closer to breaking his HI bank.

Might be historical but it still not one bit fun. [:)]

I know Erik has done this correctly. He has a solid HI bank and he won´t run out. Not from aerial losses in any event. If he does it will because of all those wrecked IDs. [:)]

Assuming Pax is correct when he said 1 ID is worth the same amount of HI as 20.000 planes the math is pretty obvious. Its kind of easier to destroy one ID then 20.000 planes! [:D]

20,000 planes = 720,000 HI. Assuming they're all 1E's. That's 120,000 ARM/VEH points. I don't think divisions cost that much, nowhere close.

But think of it this way. So you killed the divisions. So what. He doesn't have to buy them back to defend, really. He gets plenty of reinforcements as it is, and he has fewer places to defend.

He has fewer planes than that, particularly once you break it down further into specific models. He has less cushion for losses in planes than he does in LCUs. That's why pushing him in the air should still be important, even if you get 1:1 losses. Aside from bombing him out, that's what's going to bankrupt him. He can always choose to not rebuild LCUs and still defend adequately, but his air losses are less of a choice.

[catwhoorg]

Thats also a whole lot of pilots...

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I know you are sensitive to air losses right now, but you can pretty much end his fleet if you go after him now....he's hurt pretty bad & has gone to be on the run to recover....

I think he is going to retreat into the Sea of Japan. I don´t want to leave the CVE fleet behind so I don´t think I can catch him. He already has a 9 hex head start on me. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
20,000 planes = 720,000 HI. Assuming they're all 1E's. That's 120,000 ARM/VEH points. I don't think divisions cost that much, nowhere close.

But think of it this way. So you killed the divisions. So what. He doesn't have to buy them back to defend, really. He gets plenty of reinforcements as it is, and he has fewer places to defend.

He has fewer planes than that, particularly once you break it down further into specific models. He has less cushion for losses in planes than he does in LCUs. That's why pushing him in the air should still be important, even if you get 1:1 losses. Aside from bombing him out, that's what's going to bankrupt him. He can always choose to not rebuild LCUs and still defend adequately, but his air losses are less of a choice.

I hope you are right on the HI cost...

Those reinforcement he gets are crap. 30-40 EXP divisions. I think he wants to fill out the old ones first! And doesn´t the reinforcements arrive empty and have to get filled out?

I would love to put some pressure on his airforce. But I can´t really do that. I finally manged to build up the pools to sustain 2-3 days of fighting. I want to burn that on something that counts. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

Thats also a whole lot of pilots...

That it is! [:)]

[Puhis]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
20,000 planes = 720,000 HI. Assuming they're all 1E's. That's 120,000 ARM/VEH points. I don't think divisions cost that much, nowhere close.

But think of it this way. So you killed the divisions. So what. He doesn't have to buy them back to defend, really. He gets plenty of reinforcements as it is, and he has fewer places to defend.

He has fewer planes than that, particularly once you break it down further into specific models. He has less cushion for losses in planes than he does in LCUs. That's why pushing him in the air should still be important, even if you get 1:1 losses. Aside from bombing him out, that's what's going to bankrupt him. He can always choose to not rebuild LCUs and still defend adequately, but his air losses are less of a choice.

I hope you are right on the HI cost...

Those reinforcement he gets are crap. 30 EXP divisions. I think he wants the good ones back! And doesn´t the reinforcements arrive empty and have to get filled out?

I believe Armament point and manpower point cost of a squad or device equals load cost of the squad. Load cost of IJA infantry division is something like 12,000...15,000, so no more than 15,000 ARM points.

Units bought back are crap too, they don't keep their experience.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Puhis
I believe Armament point and manpower point cost of a squad or device equals load cost of the squad. Load cost of IJA infantry division is something like 12,000...15,000, so no more than 15,000 ARM points.

Units bought back are crap too, they don't keep their experience.

How much HI is an ARM point?

Isn´t it enough to get just a fragment flown out and that can then fill out to a full ID with the same EXP?

[FeurerKrieg]

Experience goes down as replacements are added. I don't think it is a total drop to 30 if you start with a modest sized chunk, but it does drop.

I think an ARM point is 16 HI or something like that.

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Puhis
I believe Armament point and manpower point cost of a squad or device equals load cost of the squad. Load cost of IJA infantry division is something like 12,000...15,000, so no more than 15,000 ARM points.

Units bought back are crap too, they don't keep their experience.

How much HI is an ARM point?

Isn´t it enough to get just a fragment flown out and that can then fill out to a full ID with the same EXP?

[Puhis]

One ARM/VEH point cost 6 HI points.

I'm pretty sure replacement squads lower unit's experince, but I don't know it exactly work.

[Lokasenna]

Greyjoy posted a thread in the main forum a while back, several months now, about the build cost of a particular IJ ID. It was 10,000 HI, I think? He pulled the number from Tracker and several of us jumped to the manual to run the numbers based on what it said... and the Tracker number ended up being correct. Rebuilding an ID doesn't have to be that expensive in terms of HI, but it is very costly in terms of supply.

I believe the reason is that some devices in the ID (the squads?) may only use 1 ARM point each, while the load cost is used for the Manpower/Supply needed to replace it. I don't have the manual or Tracker available to me right now to check that. I think I am remembering it this way because I thought it was load cost for ARM/Manpower/Supply, but then Greyjoy had that thread...

Here's the thread.
tm.asp?m=3399542&mpage=1&key=�

Edit - For that particular division that he posted, it was only 1500-1600 ARM points and 14000 or so Manpower (and supply, because in the replacements section I believe it says that you must have 2x supply at a nearby base, plus the load cost in supply which gets expended when the replacement is added to the unit). And that ID is pretty typical of IJA IDs.

1500 ARM = 9000 HI = 250 1E planes.

[FeurerKrieg]

I would have wanted to have furious air battles over Japan where fighters duke it out, airfields get closed, factories get bombed.

I think this is hard to achieve. Maybe not impossible, but generally, one side or the other (or neither as in the current case) will have an advantage. At that point, the other side is going try to avoid combat until absolutely needed. If the Allies had the numbers to constantly attack, Japan would not defend most areas - they would just keep playing cat and mouse like you guys are doing with B-29s and night fighters. If things go the way of the advantaged side, the defenders will get caught. If they don't, then the advantaged side tries again the next day. It might be a little more fun for the advantaged side, but not so much for the other side.

Consider if the Japanese had an offensive advantage on air attacks right now. Would an Allied player come anywhere close to the Home Islands? No, they would sit and wait untilthey have the advantage and attack at that point in time.

I understand what you are saying about it not being fun - but I don't know that it is very easy to fix. As with most things, players will push the limits of any changes and new issues occur. I tend to play WITP as a tycoon game with some warfare laid on top. Lots of calculations and material movements and I enjoy that. The warfare is exciting now and then, but it is not the point of the game in my mind. I can see where an Allied player doesn't get that same aspect of the game since production is a muted concern on the allied side. However, the Allies do get to look for ways to screw up my nicely built transportation networks and such.

I guess, in short, if you want more action there are other games out there. There is a reason there are not nearly as many WWI games on the market - defenses are too strong on both sides. At least in WITP, the Allies can achieve local air superiority, and they have the surface and ground forces necessary to keep taking territory. Is that enough fun? Well, that is probably a different answer for each person that plays.

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

He can always choose to not rebuild LCUs and still defend adequately

an interesting assumption, which contradicts common expirience that Japanese groundunits at this stage of the war could not even defend their own latrines proberly. Look at the pure firepower of a Marine squad in comparision with a low experienced Japanese infantry squad, mostly out-of-supply after a few days. and don't forget the tanks vs. hard attack...
or have a look at Aoffen's AAR what he achieved with a handful divisions.

As said before, historically the Allies had to fear groundcombat but dominate the air. The battles of Okinawa and I.Jima were a terrible and bloody job; compare it with the actual situation.

--
Joc, I agree with your analysis, in a monstergame like this even minimal miscalculations grow overtime to absurd constellations, no doubt - but I disagree with your conclusion, that the Allies' whole war effort is handcuffed because of the low reinforcements of modern fighters and strat-bombers. I hope you will find another solution for moving on and to put more pressure on than simple bombing...
btw, great defensive victory.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I would have wanted to have furious air battles over Japan where fighters duke it out, airfields get closed, factories get bombed.

I think this is hard to achieve.

Allow me to object. [:)]

This is not hard to achieve at all - or at least only as hard to achieve as everything else in WitP AE.

Actually exactly those furious air battles JocMeister yearns for, over mainland Japan, took place in my last PBEM. First tough combat for air superiority over Hokkaido (to prepare for invasion) from bases in the Kuriles, while at the same time striking Honshu targets with heavy bombers, later, in the final days, from bases in Okinawa supported by CV based air. Had the game not ended with autovic on Jan 1st 1945, a couple of weeks later the whole airspace over the HI would have been contested.
It is far from impossible, or in any way prevented by the game engine. It should actually be a late war goal for most Allied players - with rare exceptions depending on the situation.

The issue rather is that many players want it to be achievable from a position that quite obviously is unsuitable or still too weak for such an undertaking.

[Amoral]

I'm not sure you are seeing the opportunity cost that Japan has used to produce this airforce.

He could have invested that supply into having 2ID behind lvl 10 forts with 1 million supply on Naha. Instead, he chose to have Franks and Jacks aplenty.

If he had gone with investing his supply into ground defenses you'd be talking about how easy it is to establish total air superiority over Naha, but how it doesnt make any difference, because you still have to get LCUs ashore to drive him out... and how hard it is too launch an amphibious invasion, and how it makes both players be too defensive on the ground.

[FeurerKrieg]

Well, then. I stand corrected.

I guess Joc can get the game he wants after all!! [:D]

[JocMeister]

I found Pax post and I got the numbers wrong on the aircraft (which is good news). But his figures are REALLY different from yours when it comes to the cost of an ID. His cost is tenfold from the figures given here. So which is it? [:)]

If the HI cost for a whole division indeed is 10k I´m pretty positive Erik won´t run out of HI. The numbers I see thrown around is that the Jap player should have between 3 and 4 million HI "in the bank" for the end war. Using the low number it gives 85.000 planes or 300 IDs...

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Now, the player has choices as to how and most especially WHEN to spend this HI. The easiest way to look at this is in 100K HI chunks. 100K HI will 'buy' you about 2800 1E ac equivalents or about 1 ID or 1 accelerated CV. OK, nice and easy.

Good news to hear taking replacements lower the overall EXP of the unit. I have had little experience with this as I have not had a unit almost destroyed and very seldom have squads destroyed. Usually the allied LCUs at this stage suffer disablements. Its also good news because it means Eriks generous air evacuation have been mostly in vain. [:'(]

Regarding a daylight campaign over the HI I think my situation is a bit different then LoBarons. But I won´t completely give up the hope yet then. But I think the last turn showed pretty clearly what I mean about defensive being the way to go. Its not fun at all but it works.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]30th-31st March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Besides Eriks attack at Okinawa there isn´t too much to report.

------------------------
Destination Okinawa
------------------------
Erik CVs disappear. Either he disbanded them at Nagasaki (I have 3 CVs listed in the port) or he withdrew in to the Sea of Japan. He will be at full strength again in 2-3 days so I won´t let my guard down.

The day proved pretty clear that my best course of action is to continue with what I have been doing. That is to pretty much do nothing. I think Naha is untouchable right now. I have several Fletcher TFs, 60-80 PT boats and 50 subs protecting from naval attacks. The 350 plane CAP quite easily dealt with the Ki83 sweeps sent the other day. I have 75 P47N forming the backbone of the CAP with some Spit VIIs down at 10k to draw down the sweeps.

With its high MVR and speed the Spit VII is excellent in this role. Despite being dived on by both Frank "Rs" and Ki-83s in the hundreds I only lost 7 Spits and not a single pilot.


------------------------
China
------------------------
The river crossing went exceptionally well.

Ground combat at 67,44 (near Paoshan)

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 46259 troops, 835 guns, 532 vehicles, Assault Value = 1689

Defending force 36287 troops, 354 guns, 168 vehicles, Assault Value = 1079

Allied adjusted assault: 1018

Japanese adjusted defense: 2014

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
2593 casualties reported
Squads: 73 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 25 (6 destroyed, 19 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3323 casualties reported
Squads: 129 destroyed, 174 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 32 disabled
Engineers: 18 destroyed, 15 disabled
Guns lost 31 (5 destroyed, 26 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)

My three IDs are almost completely untouched losing only 3-5 squads disabled each. The Chinese small Corps took all the losses. I have a couple of thousands of those so no big deal. I´ll just rest away the disruption and then we start destroying Eriks 3 IDs + BDE. Pretty happy to have three 50% strength IDs tie up 3 full Jap IDs. [:)]

We are also making very good progress in the south. Erik doesn´t seem to realize the danger yet. But he is being outflanked.

[Crackaces]

If the HI cost for a whole division indeed is 10k I´m pretty positive Erik won´t run out of HI. The numbers I see thrown around is that the Jap player should have between 3 and 4 million HI "in the bank" for the end war. Using the low number it gives 85.000 planes or 300 IDs...

What is not considered in this statement is supply. Every aircraft replacement taken from the pool, LCU replacement takes supply points. Depending on game pace supply is a critical constraint on operations.