Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I found Pax post and I got the numbers wrong on the aircraft (which is good news). But his figures are REALLY different from yours when it comes to the cost of an ID. His cost is tenfold from the figures given here. So which is it? [:)]

If the HI cost for a whole division indeed is 10k I´m pretty positive Erik won´t run out of HI. The numbers I see thrown around is that the Jap player should have between 3 and 4 million HI "in the bank" for the end war. Using the low number it gives 85.000 planes or 300 IDs...

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo
Now, the player has choices as to how and most especially WHEN to spend this HI. The easiest way to look at this is in 100K HI chunks. 100K HI will 'buy' you about 2800 1E ac equivalents or about 1 ID or 1 accelerated CV. OK, nice and easy.

Good news to hear taking replacements lower the overall EXP of the unit. I have had little experience with this as I have not had a unit almost destroyed and very seldom have squads destroyed. Usually the allied LCUs at this stage suffer disablements. Its also good news because it means Eriks generous air evacuation have been mostly in vain. [:'(]

Regarding a daylight campaign over the HI I think my situation is a bit different then LoBarons. But I won´t completely give up the hope yet then. But I think the last turn showed pretty clearly what I mean about defensive being the way to go. Its not fun at all but it works.

I thought his numbers were very, very high. I'll have access to the manual again shortly and will look up the replacements passages... But I really think it's just the load cost. I could be wrong. However, judging by my experience against the AI where I had a protracted battle in Chungking of super-super-superstacks (102 Chinese units vs. about 13k of my own AV) and had to rebuild trashed divisions over a long period of time, I know it didn't cost me 100k per ID or whatever. Else I'd have run out of supply rather quickly. China as a theater never had more than 250k supply, and 100k of that was sitting around in bomb piles for the hordes of 2E bombers.


Speaking of 2E bombers, when are you going to take Hokkaido and REALLY get in range of his industry? [;)]. I bet you could wage a daylight campaign from there, even if it's only against the northern part of Honshu. Or you could just fly en masse at night with hundreds of B-25s, B-17s, etc.

[JocMeister]

I´m waiting for prep...then there will be one last major OP of this war. ETA somewhere in May-June. [:)]

I´m going to put 15.000 AV...somewhere. [:D]

[Lokasenna]

Ok, all I can find in the manual for the relationship between replacements and supplies is that a unit must be at or have access to a base with "sufficient supply." I've read elsewhere on these forums that sufficient supply = more than double needed.

I went through the manual doing a text search for "replacement" and couldn't find anything. So...anybody got a reference for the supply cost of replacements? A search for "load cost" didn't bring anything up either.

[JocMeister]

Have you checked the patch notes? I´m on the phone so I can´t check myself!

[Lokasenna]

Ok, everything I've found on here says the supply cost of replacements is the load cost. And that you must meet several cases (per Michael M) in order for an LCU to draw replacements.

Alfred's 101, section D4 (bottom of first post): tm.asp?m=2878790
States that it's the load cost in supplies.

Defunct webpage reference that "verifies" this: tm.asp?m=2400819&mpage=1&key=replacemen ... s&#2400819


See post from Michael M here as well: tm.asp?m=2713481&mpage=1&key=replacements%2Csupplies&#


So basically, only about 15k supplies to fill an ID back out to full... As others have noted however, the Exp of the unit won't be great. It will trend towards the national average (50 or so for Japan?) depending on how many devices it needs to replace.

[JocMeister]

Great info Loka! [:)]

While its only 15k I destroyed what now? 20-25 IDs? I guess 350-400.000 supply is a big chunk for the Japanese at this point?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Great info Loka! [:)]

While its only 15k I destroyed what now? 20-25 IDs? I guess 350-400.000 supply is a big chunk for the Japanese at this point?

IF he rebuilds them. He probably doesn't need to. However, he still has to fill out the units he's getting from reinforcements anyway. I'm unsure if those arriving from reinforcements use supply, but I'd say with 99% certainty that if they use ARM/VEH points then they'd also use up supply corresponding to those ARM/VEH points.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]30th-31st March 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

A little of this and that.

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Destination Okinawa
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We start expanding out from Okinawa and land on Miyako-Jima. Its just to the west of Okinawa. Resistance is light and the island will be quickly secured.

Ground combat at Miyako-jima (91,66)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1410 troops, 50 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 55

Defending force 3901 troops, 115 guns, 501 vehicles, Assault Value = 234

Japanese ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 10 (2 destroyed, 8 disabled)

Assaulting units:
Miyako-jima Naval Guard Unit
194th JAAF AF Bn

Defending units:
775th Tank Battalion
763rd Tank Battalion
44th Tank Battalion
694th Field Artillery Battalion
IX Corps Artillery

Fleet will retire to Naha to fill out the air groups. Still no sign of the KB. Oddly I still get CVs and BBs in Nagasaki harbor. Why would he disband the fleet there? Just to hide? Or is it a trap...

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Formosa
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I feel pretty certain I can contain it now. He can still fly troops out but I don´t think he will get any heavy equipment off. I still have 3500 AV prepped in the event he move out too much. Having a level 9 AF within normal range of most of the HI...would be helpful. [:)]

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China
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Looks like Erik finally spotted the danger and is withdrawing from Nanning. I´m also getting some movement in HK and Canton. A general withdrawal? Or just a small dash to try and fill in the vacuum created by the loss of control of the East China and Yellow Sea? I´ve started recon of the coast. Almost completely empty with only 1-2 units per base. I´m moving in the 11th airborne. Perhaps I do something "smart" here.

Would be nice to understand Eriks intentions with China. Abandoning the roadblock was a mistake IMO. China is just to big to "superstack" all the possible approaches. Not really sure what he is doing right now. Why a superstack at Canton/HK? I guess he don´t want to abandon it after all the effort building up the AFs. So far I´m happy with my progress. I think I caught Erik of guard with the speed of the southern advance.

It feels refreshing being able to maneuver after 2 years of stalemate in Burma. [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
IF he rebuilds them. He probably doesn't need to. However, he still has to fill out the units he's getting from reinforcements anyway. I'm unsure if those arriving from reinforcements use supply, but I'd say with 99% certainty that if they use ARM/VEH points then they'd also use up supply corresponding to those ARM/VEH points.

He still have to defend the HI. Kyushu and Hokkaido are really exposed. So is Shikoku. Most of what he gets now is really rubbish and won´t last long once committed. Besides there is no need to have stuff in the bank forever?

But perhaps he has reached the limit of what his supply can deal with. Having more LCUs than supply can sustain won´t be much help. So that might be a limiting factor?

[Crackaces]

Having more LCUs than supply can sustain won´t be much help. So that might be a limiting factor?

I might suggest a deciding factor .. If in fact the IJ continue to conduct operations at the current pace
a point will be reached in which the OOB and conditions will be set and supplies the constraint ...the price for a uber air force has to be paid ..

[FeurerKrieg]

Yes, supply will be an issue. If this is stock and refineries are producing supply, maybe not as soon, but if no supply from refineries then it is definitely tight.

[JocMeister]

Its stock SCEN 1 so he gets supply from refineries. I really hope Crackaces are right about the supply. I see some indications he might be hurting for it but no effect on the air force or army yet.

I´ve looked at the late war reinforcements and the are indeed pretty much crap. I doubt even 4-6 of these could hold back a single USMC division for long. The TOE are really light. So if I were Erik I would much rather fill out the wrecked IDs with a more powerful TOE. He got like 15 of these recently with a bunch of BDEs thrown in.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]1st April 1945[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

More landings with little opposition.

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Destination Okinawa
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Today we land at Kume-Jima just to the North of Naha. Just for the fun of it I had thrown in a lot of beach suppressing LCIs. [:'(]

Pre-Invasion action off Kume-jima (94,65)

Allied Ships
CL Ceylon
CL Hobart
DD Aylwin
DD Dale
DD Dewey
DD Perkins
LCI(G)-450
LCI(G)-449
LCI(G)-442
LCI(G)-441
LCI(G)-440
LCI(G)-438
LCI(G)-437
LCI(G)-408
LCI(G)-407
LCI(G)-406
LCI(G)-405
LCI(G)-404
LCI(G)-403
LCI(G)-401
LCI(G)-398
LSM(R)-199
LSM(R)-198
LSM(R)-197
LSM(R)-196
LSM(R)-195
LSM(R)-194
LSM(R)-193
LSM(R)-192
APA St. Mary's

Japanese ground losses:
2307 casualties reported
Squads: 40 destroyed, 90 disabled
Non Combat: 30 destroyed, 88 disabled
Engineers: 29 destroyed, 25 disabled
Guns lost 55 (20 destroyed, 35 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Later in the day no automatic Japanese bombardment is triggered. This mean there are no Japanese AV left on the island. Boom? [:)]

The fleet replenishes some 300 planes at Naha. All F6F-3 are upgraded to F6F-5s.

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China
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I easily secure the first harbor at Pakhoi. This will also be a fighter base. No problem with supply even in the motorized spearhead. No wonder Erik could support his 350.000 men Superstack all around China in 42.

Looks like Erik decided to abandon the air cover over HI/Canton. Only 150 fighters left. Still too many to make anything worthwhile for me though.

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Formosa
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Erik has withdrawn about 400 bombers and 600 Fighters from Formosa. I´m not going to bother with anything here. They can sit there. I can still strike at the shipping with SCTFs at full speed. No point in wasting hoards of planes to wear down the CAP.

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Home Island
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Looks like Erik has decided to pull back towards the HI. Both the navy and air force seem to concentrate here. Guess he is worried I will land on Kyushu. [:D]

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Strategic bombing
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B29 squadrons are finally back to 10 plane strength across the board. This is still only 2/3rd strength. I can now start working on the HI again. Losses will be heavy no doubt and pilot quality is nowhere near where it was when we started bombing the HI earlier. Then I had 70-80 EXP pilots with 70-99 in GRD/DEF. Now I have to do it again with 45/70/50 pilots...This time I will do it a bit differently though...

B24s are now back to normal strength after bombing without opposition in China for two months. I even managed to upgrade 2 of the B17D squadrons back to B24s. Pool is completely empty now though.

[DOCUP]

Nice LCI bombardment.

[paullus99]

Damn.....very nice. That will certainly help the next time around when you do some more "BIG LANDINGS" - very interesting to see this play out in the late war, since we get the chance to see so little of that in these AARs.

[JocMeister]

I´ve seen results like that before a couple of times. I think its terrain related. When clear terrain you get 3 digits casualties. In x2 terrain you get under 200. In x3 terrain you get under 100 down to nothing. Forts doesn´t seem to effect this very much which is kind of odd.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Reinforcements[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I forgot to mention I have some substantial reinforcements arriving in the area. Most of the British Fleet just arrived at Luzon. 1 CV, 4 CVEs, 2 BBs, 5 CAs and about 20 DDs.

I´m especially happy about the CAs. They will become a fantastic addition to the fleet. I love the British CA and in my game at least they have performed much better then even the USN Baltimores (who has been a HUGE disappointment). Most of the British ships have Day EXPs in the 75 range which explains their great performance.

The USN is also moving in with some good ships including the Bon Homme Richard, Pennsylvania, Califonia, Guam, CA Quincy and CL Dayton.

The reinforcements of big ships are now starting to dry up. I´m "only" getting 3 more British BBs, 6 CAs and about 10 CLs (mostly British). On the CV front its more fun. I still have 6 Essexes and the Midway left on the USN side. On the British side I have one 81 plane CV and 7 CVLs still coming.

Smaller ships are plentiful though and I still have around 100 DDs coming. Sadly no more Fletchers. Looks like everything that comes now are Sumners and Gearings. Most of the DDs are USN with perhaps 20 Brit. No more APAs/AKAs or other assault ships and LSTs at all. What I got is what I get. The xAKs are still rolling in but I can´t say I really need them. They are rapidly filling up the stores on Luzon.

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Logistics
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I have to say I´m astounded how Erik could have the KB running around like he did in this game. I have had the Fleet at sea now for about a month. I estimate the Fleet has used somewhere around 500k-550k of fuel during this time. Not one hex at full speed. Only in this last refuel to top off the tanks 120k fuel just said *gurgle gurgle*. I know he didn´t have near the same amount of ships but he must have burned a million fuel on all those raids and full speed dashes.

What I´m trying to get at is that you might think having half a million fuel in theater is plentiful. Its not. When I have 5 million I might start thinking about halting the TFs from the WC.

Same with supply. The amount the army and air force burn at this stage is just beyond belief. I have probably dumped 5 million supply on Luzon during the last 3 months. I still have problems keeping up. Right now I have about 2 million on Luzon and Okinawa.

Never ever for a second think you have enough. Keep the TFs coming. All the time.

[Crackaces]

Its stock SCEN 1 so he gets supply from refineries. I really hope Crackaces are right about the supply

I just ask one rhetorical question ... how much supply are you bringing into theater and what is this supply being used for?
Now add the supply requirements for replacements of LCU's and airframes drawn from the pools ...[8D]

In my opinion, supply is a most interesting constraint on operations and can be especially insidious in some respects. The limits like 20K supply, and double supply requirements have interesting affects on supply distribution. Then add the minute details required to manage the distribution of supply [tweaking demand base by base] and you have situations where supply might be plentiful at one base and a dearth of supply at yet another ..

One question I have .. without giving details .. have you thought of the point totals and timeline for victory?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Its stock SCEN 1 so he gets supply from refineries. I really hope Crackaces are right about the supply

I just ask one rhetorical question ... how much supply are you bringing into theater and what is this supply being used for?
Now add the supply requirements for replacements of LCU's and airframes drawn from the pools ...[8D]

In my opinion, supply is a most interesting constraint on operations and can be especially insidious in some respects. The limits like 20K supply, and double supply requirements have interesting affects on supply distribution. Then add the minute details required to manage the distribution of supply [tweaking demand base by base] and you have situations where supply might be plentiful at one base and a dearth of supply at yet another ..

One question I have .. without giving details .. have you thought of the point totals and timeline for victory?

Define "thought of" [:D]

I´m counting on the Strat bombing campaign to give me the last points needed for AV. Not sure the game will end by that though. We both agreed this game was not going to be about VPs so if Erik wants to continue after AV we will.

If the current pace holds I will reach AV sometime in June. I need 19k VPs for AV (if the Japanese VPs hold steady). I´m currently gaining on average 216 VPs per turn. So thats about 90 more days. I havn´t taken Japanese VP increase into account though but its on average about 15-20 VPs per turn. So it will add a few more days.

At first I thought I would reach AV in Sep/Oct but even though the Strat campaign have been on hold for 2 months the VP gain has actually increased. The is mostly thanks to Japanese LCU losses.

[Bullwinkle58]

You have a little more time, but you need to pre-plan USSR supply ops for mid-August. Since you didn't go north you'll need CVE/CV air cover to run the big supply convoys into Vlad. And the Soviets can really eat the supplies once they get rolling with the tank armies. You will outrun supply very easily and need to wait in conquered bases for catch-up. Several million into the USSR between August and December is quite possible. They can supply themselves to an extent, but if you look at the OOB and count fighting LCUs it is breathtaking.