The Shipwreck of Our Hopes: Japanese Side

[ny59giants]

Could have done Singapore without the 38th

Probably true. [;)]

In my other game vs FatR during a siege of any length the broken down divisions (2nd) can get significant disablement of their squads with a bad combat result. I'm planning on doing a deliberate attack with 3 whole divisions and if that goes good, the turn after to do a shock with the two infantry regiments plus support from the 2nd Division.

[bklooste]

It will go down pretty quick , shock attack may even get 2:1 if you spend a lot of planes and have  art bombarding him .

[Canoerebel]

The inability of the Allies to hold Singapore in AE is a well-known and makes things hard on them; but when the bulk of the Allied army is isolated up the peninsula due to clever Japanese landing at Mersing...ouch!
 
You guys are being as aggressive as expected (among certain circles...ahem), so the failure of an important speed bump like Singapore will be like pouring fuel on a fire.  Your opponents are in for some pain in '42.

[John 3rd]

Dan---You, as normal my former worthy opponent, are dead-on.  It is not beyond the realm of probability to have Manila, Singapore, and Bataan by January 10, 1942.  Java doesn't hardly count as a speedbump.  We will have the ENTIRE Japanese Army available for Offensive Operations in mid-January/early-February 1942.  Think about that...

Michael and I had a good chat a couple of days ago.  We are now seriously contemplating a Calcutta Hook.  We slowly move north into Southern Burma and fix the Allies attention.  The true attack then follows with a massed (say 4-6 Inf Div) landing at Diamond Harbor.  We grab Calcutta and drive east to cutoff the Burma Army.  If we can crush it then that is GREAT!  At worst we drive them into China where they starve.

Goal isn't territory--though the resources, oil, LI, and HI will be nice--it is destroy those troops!  Could vastly help the cause for 42 and 43.

IF we do this then I will TRULY have to dial back my tendancies and have to be a bit more passive.  I can easily finish my current operations.  To be tricky I might still land on the Aussie Coast to make them THINK we are going there instead of India.  Could be a bunch of fun...

Comments?

Thanks Dan for seeing right into the possibilities...

[Canoerebel]

With your early successes, you have the great luxury of much added time to plan and execute harmful offensives (remember in WitP when Manila sometimes held out until June '42?).

A couple of thoughts:

1) Keep in mind your India invasion when you teamed with Q-Ball in that crazy WitP game. You guys invaded New Zealand as a diversion....and discovered a great opportunity there. You may have similar opportunities arise in this game when you hit Australia (or whatever missions you choose to compliment or disguise your India gambit).

2) It appears from several other games that Burma can be real, real trouble for the Japanese in '43 and '44 due to the mounting and ultimately massive strength of the Indian and British units. So anything you do that impedes this progression is a good thing.

3) For that reason, mauling Allied units in Burma is a good thing. Of course, you won't destroy them as the Allied players should be able to evacuate cadres by air transport.

4) Keep an eye on Ceylon and, if not properly garrisoned, go for it if you can do so "on the cheap." The loss of Ceylon and the Calclutta/Dacca region should set back the Allies by months.

[John 3rd]

Thank You Dan. Sound Advice. That WitP Game was crazy! The 'diversion' into New Zealand became the conquest of NZ. Nuts...

You know me...I love to improvise.



Here is Burma and the standard opening movements:

[John 3rd]

Here is the real objective for the potential operation. The riskier move is Diamond Harbor while the safer is Chittagong. Has anyone gone this way and tried this sort of an operation? See some real benefits and, as long as we don't get crazy, not too much down side.

[bklooste]

I think this is best but it leaves your fleet usused...I would combine it with an early ( earlier ?) Ceylon operation and possible diversion landing in south india as it gives the impression of a complete India invasion. Forcing him to fight and defeating some birtish ships in detail would serve you more than any conquest.

Time to burn some fuel....

Phase1:(Start Feb)
So some BBs on Pacific defence Pacific duties between Truk and Marshals.

Mini KB , Timor and Bataan forces ( +Maybe rabaul) + KB 1 tasked with Java and Darwin , Mini KB attacks and KB1 comes around behind to get the fleeing ships and then helps the landings. Once KB1 is spotted Mini KB heads to the pacific. ( with some Nettied , Daities of Zeroes and the BBs it will be a decent force)

Burma forces go slow invading . ( i think most are in Malya)

Singapore forces go to Ceylon with KB 2.
Malay troops after clean up take Palambang

Phase 2 ( march to April)
John makes lots of noise forum about taking India is /should be possible
Malaya forcs when Ceylon is taken head to Burma.
landing in South india from Ceylon
Darwin is taken

Phase 3 ( Start ~June) pull most of the troops back and crush Southern and Northern China esp with the Burma supply issues. The allies wont have the troops yet to launch a major offensive ( esp after losses) though you could loose some places in the Pacific ( who cares ...) . Use Divisions in CHina to lead the attacks and once decimated buy them out . The idea is to take a lot of the forces out of China to make a nasty perimiter and to hurt him enough so he cant launch major offensives in CHna opeing the rail to Vietnam is also nice to ship resources and units around.

Agresive enough If the allies really want to sit it out it will hurt ...

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Dan---You, as normal my former worthy opponent, are dead-on.  It is not beyond the realm of probability to have Manila, Singapore, and Bataan by January 10, 1942.  Java doesn't hardly count as a speedbump.  We will have the ENTIRE Japanese Army available for Offensive Operations in mid-January/early-February 1942.  Think about that...

Michael and I had a good chat a couple of days ago.  We are now seriously contemplating a Calcutta Hook.  We slowly move north into Southern Burma and fix the Allies attention.  The true attack then follows with a massed (say 4-6 Inf Div) landing at Diamond Harbor.  We grab Calcutta and drive east to cutoff the Burma Army.  If we can crush it then that is GREAT!  At worst we drive them into China where they starve.

Goal isn't territory--though the resources, oil, LI, and HI will be nice--it is destroy those troops!  Could vastly help the cause for 42 and 43.

IF we do this then I will TRULY have to dial back my tendancies and have to be a bit more passive.  I can easily finish my current operations.  To be tricky I might still land on the Aussie Coast to make them THINK we are going there instead of India.  Could be a bunch of fun...

Comments?

Thanks Dan for seeing right into the possibilities...

[John 3rd]

BK--DAMN that is a wild set of plans.  Let me read this and digest it some.  Michael--You have been silent.  Is this good or bad?  Thoughts from you and other Forum readers?
 

[Q-Ball]

This is the #1 strategic decision of the war for Japan, and maybe for both sides: What to do after the SRA is conquered? The "Phase 2" question.

It's tougher in AE, that's for sure. WITP offered a couple strong possibilities; you could sever the supply line to Australia (take NZ, FIji, etc), or take India, or conquer most of Australia. All of these are pretty much off the board for one reason or another, either too tough or supply lines can always go off-map.

So, your main goal has to be to destroy/attrite the Allies, preferably in WARSHIPS, but if not there, then TROOPS and PLANES. The secondary objective is to create space that you can trade for time.

I like the left-hook idea, I would also propose the following:

1. Make "India Hook" the primary Operation. Land 6+ Divisions there at Diamond Harbor, plus all the tanks you have, and detail all your Paras to grab empty bases and cut rail lines. The objective is to destroy the Burma Army, and Attrite the British. Both will help alot.
2. Simultaneously, start prepping 2-4 good divisions in Home Islands/Manchukuo for a base on CEYLON. Save up the PPs to buy them when they are 100% prepped. You can go ahead with this one, depending on how things go. The objective is to deny the RN a base, but mostly to destroy all the units on Ceylon.
3. You won't need the bulk of the fleet once you are firmly ashore. You will need IJN airpower, but not much of the fleet. Move them off to the PACIFIC.

You have the strength, after Java, to mount another operation: Australia.

1. Detail 2 divisions for a landing at Darwin. I have posted before, this is a must-take IMO for Japan. 2 Should do it, IF YOU DO IT IN MARCH.
2. Follow that up by overrunning the North Coast of Australia. You won't need many ground troops, a few Nav Gd will do, as long as you have NAVAL SUPPORT. Shift part or all the fleet temporarily here to support. A CV TF off Exmouth will prevent the Allies from doing anything to stop you. The objective here is just to create "Space", a tripwire to protect the Southern DEI.
3. I would also prep some Kwantung/Home Island units for a target in the New Hebrides. This is assuming you clear Port Moresby, which is a must, and establish the historical perimeter. The objective, in April/May 1942, is to draw the USN into a battle with your fleet. The consolation prize is whatever target you have prepped for. There is a chance they will not give battle. Don't do this unless you bring almost the whole Combined Fleet, and in a manner they don't know you have them.

The most important thing you can do, though the most difficult, is to kill alot of Allies warships, CVs preferably, but cruisers and DDs as well.

In general, because fragments can be pulled, you'll get more mileage attiting UK units than US. That's because UK replacements are limited, and US replacements really aren't; destroying fragments of US units doesn't accomplish anything in the long term other than points.

Also note various other attrition choices:

RAF: Has good Hurri replacements, but not many bombers.
USAAF: Has limited fighter replacements; good attrition target.
USN: Very limited Wildcats and SBDs. Plenty of TBFs.

[Canoerebel]

Sounds like a bold plan with good potential to me - but just to clarify, bklooste's plan doesn't include a move on Calcutta/Diamond Harbor?

Also, while you're giving thought to this offensive, give nearly an equal amount of thought to where you WANT the Allies to attack you when they finally go on the offensive in late '42 or early '43.  In the place where you WANT them to attack you, create an appearance of weakness (up front) while crafting a nasty web of strong, interlocking bases just to the rear.  That way, once the Allies really commit, they end up getting bogged down in a slow, grinding advance.  In the places where you DON'T want them to attack you create the appearance of strength so that your opponents are persuaded to look elsewhere - to that deceptively weak area.

[FatR]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
RAF: Has good Hurri replacements, but not many bombers.
USAAF: Has limited fighter replacements; good attrition target.
USN: Very limited Wildcats and SBDs. Plenty of TBFs.

I don't agree, unless this part is changed in Juan's mods. RAF is stuck with anemic fighter replacements until June. Hurricanes are just so damn good, that it is hard to kill them. Even in June they only get slightly more stuff than USAAF and they need to deploy Canadian and NZ squadrons to use all of it. Wildcats go to 50 per month starting from May. USAAF has a reliable influx of 75+ fighters per month from the very start (P-400s temporarily add to this), but rather few bombers until May of 1943 (there is a short burst of reinforcements in August-October of 1942, though).

[John 3rd]

Great commentary Gents. 
 
Qball:  Your operational thinking is pretty close to what I have been thinking about but there are a couple of things to be aware of:
1.  I've already got 2/3 of New Caledonia and will have Noumea by January 10th.
2.  Am already dancing around Suva and have grabbed Savaii.  Will hit Pago Pago when the AF at Savaii has been made more useful.
3.  Will be landing at PM on January 4th (next turn).
4.  The Darwin Invasion Force has already sailed and is headed for its target.
 
Michael already has all the Manchuria Armor ready to move as soon as they can be bought out.  There are several Armored units in Luzon and Malaya.  These can begin prepping for India targets as they finish off their current duties.  They can be used in either Australia or India.
 
 
The bottom line is that by the end of January we will have Manila, Bataan, Singapore, and Darwin.  Java will probably be fighting for its life at that point.  We will be looking at VERY good things all the way around.
 
The Calcutta Hook I think is a great answer to Second Phase Operations.  Qball--Taking Ceylon to simply crush units and deny it as a base for a while is a solid idea.  Wonder if we should hit it FIRST (diversion again), then Calcutta, and clear out Eastern India.  It is certainly possible...
 
As to Dan's comments, I think--quite realistically--we will be able to eliminate Burma and a DEI reconquest as a viable threat through 1943.  This is good because I HATE that possibility.  This will leave the Pacific.  There will need to be some serious and real planning here for what we intend to do. 
 
Sink ships.  SINK ships.  SINK SHIPS!  This is my answer.
 
Michael--I can pull the KB and bring it over to provide cover around Aussieland if you want.  This could free-up ALL your CVs for operations against Burma, Ceylon, and eastern India.
 

[Canoerebel]

John Cochran = living proof that AE doesn't necessarily have to reign in Japanese expansion.
 
P.S.  I'm aware that Michael is teaming with John.  But for Michael's capable and prudent hand, John would currently be planning the invasions of Tahiti, Kodiak Island, and the Seychilles.

[Q-Ball]

I would definitely not go Ceylon first. That will make the possibility of a landing at Diamond Harbor seem much more possible, and he may plan accordingly.

Right now it looks like you're not that interested in the Bay of Bengal; keep it that way, until you come in force. The "Hook" is much more effective if you catch the Allies by surprise, which means catching the defenses unprepared, and troops shoved forward into Burma.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John Cochran = living proof that AE doesn't necessarily have to reign in Japanese expansion.

P.S.  I'm aware that Michael is teaming with John.  But for Michael's capable and prudent hand, John would currently be planning the invasions of Tahiti, Kodiak Island, and the Seychilles.

How did you KNOW about the Seychilles??? [:D]

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I would definitely not go Ceylon first. That will make the possibility of a landing at Diamond Harbor seem much more possible, and he may plan accordingly.

Right now it looks like you're not that interested in the Bay of Bengal; keep it that way, until you come in force. The "Hook" is much more effective if you catch the Allies by surprise, which means catching the defenses unprepared, and troops shoved forward into Burma.

Prudent and excellent advice Sir. Was simply trying to order the Operations in my head. We continue to make Australia the likely target then the Hook comes in as a bolt from the blue. This is why I might still land in NE Australia and then retreat a couple of months later once the India Operation is fully underway.

Our opponents will look for weakness once the true targets are revealed. This shall mean the Pacific. Gonna need more troops and, more importantly, engineering units!

As Dan comment accurately, Michael keeps me semi-reigned in. I propose craziness and he reigns me in about 50% or so.

Would state that we are only thinking about this due to the Allied poor showing so far. This can certainly change in one heck of a hurry.

[PresterJohn001]

I went into Diamond Harbour in March 42. I coupled this with a very slow advance into Burma, i think i only moved toward Rangoon when the fleet was all but on its way to Diamond Harbour. The aim was to trap the Burma army and in that i succeeded. I didn't take enough land troops with me really but otherwise DH is fine. i m also landed at Akyab for the air base and pushed on by land to Chittagong. With Akyab for bombers and DH for fighters (admitedly overloaded) i was able to hold my own in the air war. I drove KB directly into DH for the first invasion turn to make sure i won the air suprioritory but thats kinda risky

I wrote some bits down in an AAR. My opponent was EUBannana who also wrote a semi regular aar (mines in the pacific. obviously i don't know what he says but you should get an allied perspective
on DH). We've stopped playing for the moment in Jun 42. (corrected date!)

Theres quite a bit of HI and resources in the area. Plus some oil - Ledo. Paratroopers are great.

edit added:

Q-Balls post above sets about the right numbers of troops needed from my experience. Also the British fleet should be somewhere, i managed to find em in Columbo and do some serious damage with the KB.

[John 3rd]

Thanks for the contribution Sir.  Will look at the AAR.
 
As to Paras, I am sending units to Michael so he has more.  We were adding up all the Japanese Paratroopers and came up with a number of nearly 350 Assault Value.  Darned near an Infantry Division's worth of them.  It was semi-surprising to discover.

[PresterJohn001]

Just been re-reading my aar - its on page 2. Some different details from what i recalled, couple of important points, with eventually 6 divs it was hard going, i was making progress, just not as fast as i hoped, but i didn't get 6 divs landed in the first wave. Also going from Diamond Harbour to Calcutta you will shock attack, theres a ?river between the two hexes.