Japanese defensive strategy...

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ORIGINAL: mdiehl

A bombardment TF makes a perfectly timed run-in with a substantial number of ships, avoiding detection under cover of darkness and not suffering aerial attack. The following AM a CV based strike arrives perfectly timed to suppress the airbase and cover the withdrawal of the bombardment TF. I think this plan is highly implausible for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is the dependence on perfect timing of the two combat elements, the movement and arrival of the bombardment group and the arrival of the CV based planes.

I do not think precision timming is crucial. It was with the USN mandate raids because they wanted to bombard by daylight. Any delay of the air attack could have been critical. I think the IJN plan would have been better served starting their bombardment prior to sunrise it might even continue until the dawn air strike showed up. A night attack would stand a better chance of catching recon and attack a/c on the ground. As far as being attacked by a/c at night there isnt much evidence to suggest even if the TF had been discovered on its run in, that such an attack would have been very effective

In the greater context of the discussion, this plan also puts the IJN CVs in the historical position of the IJN strike force. Simulatasking too many jobs at once, and therefore highly extra vulnerable to enemy CVs that might be operating in the area. It MIGHT work, but the plan still seems error intolerant and still overtasks Kido Butai.

In this context. It was pretty evident even from the IJN "rigged" wargamming that it was absolutely critical to shut down Midway airbase with ONE "initial" attack. A sober anaylsis would make the chance of this without the Sho & Zui very slim. A heavy bombardment would at least help supplement the loss of the 2 CVs and would increase the chance that only one air strike would be neccessary. It wasnt so much the initial strike that caused all the problems it was the need subsequent air strikes that caused problems in both the gaming and real life . For these reasons I feel that a 4 CV plan supplemented by bombardment, although not better than a 6 CV plan, stood a better chance than the historical 4 CV alone.

As a matter of curiousity I wonder how many Japanese BBs could have realistically attempted such a run-in anyhow? The Kongo class surely, but the others?

IMO, just the Kongos, plus some CAs and DDs speed is critical and the Yamato and the Nagatos are just not fast enough. Besides the IJN would never have risked them.

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Oops Double post.

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[:@] Did it again