Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

You can still often gain local air superiority. At least for periods of time.

Watch your pools though! I still do it every turn! [:)]

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Its a gamble. One bad day could see the precious pools I finally built up wiped clean again. Lack of space will also mean I can´t use my P38s for escorts but will have to rely on Sweeps going in first only. I also can´t use the USMC/Navy in this as their Fighter pools are in bad shape.

What is wrong with this picture?!?
Its May '45 and the Allies don't have enough airframes while Japan will be able to refill her air groups a lot more easily.

It seems the majority of late war games see the Allies plane pools almost dry, while Japan has more planes than they know what to do with.

I am not saying anything is wrong, it probably has to do with using the production system, while Allies can't.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Its a gamble. One bad day could see the precious pools I finally built up wiped clean again. Lack of space will also mean I can´t use my P38s for escorts but will have to rely on Sweeps going in first only. I also can´t use the USMC/Navy in this as their Fighter pools are in bad shape.

What is wrong with this picture?!?
Its May '45 and the Allies don't have enough airframes while Japan will be able to refill her air groups a lot more easily.

It seems the majority of late war games see the Allies plane pools almost dry, while Japan has more planes than they know what to do with.

I am not saying anything is wrong, it probably has to do with using the production system, while Allies can't.

this is a game and not a simulation ..[;)]

[JocMeister]

Managed to get the turn off to Erik after getting the most important done. I think turns will be slow for a while now. Ida has been having some horrible nights lately which leaves me without energy to anything besides sleeping when I get the chance.

[jeffk3510]

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

ORIGINAL: ny59giants



What is wrong with this picture?!?
Its May '45 and the Allies don't have enough airframes while Japan will be able to refill her air groups a lot more easily.

It seems the majority of late war games see the Allies plane pools almost dry, while Japan has more planes than they know what to do with.

I am not saying anything is wrong, it probably has to do with using the production system, while Allies can't.

this is a game and not a simulation ..[;)]

I'm well aware of that.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

They had the same cruise speed (4) and where set to mission speed. The SCTF max speed was 9 while the other TFs where 5 and 6.

Only thing remotely close to this was when I had some Cargo TFs resetting to home port in the middle of a mission. But I´ve never seen the follow command wiped before. I´ll not rule out a mistake on my part but I doubt I managed to cancel the follow command on 4 different TFs. I had already moved them around in this manner for weeks. I even named the SCTF to "lead TF" and have used that to move everyone around for weeks. The way the TFs moved indicate "something" forced them to move and that lead to the "follow" command to be wiped.

I guess from now on I´ll move each TF individually. Costly lesson.

I'm not sure how to interpret the bolded part. If the lead TF is set to Mission and does 9 and the Follow TFs are set to Cruise and do 4 that seems to be a problem, maybe. If the lead TF Cruise is more than 4 I'm not sure how the code treats that. If it can go to absolute knot numbers and match them against the Followers' set speeds, or if there are only three "notches" for lead TF speed--Cruise, Mission, Full. If the lead TF is faster it should slow down to let the Followers keep up, but I don't know what happens if the Followers set speed is slower than the lead's Cruise. There ought to be an error trap for that I'd think.

I had a Follow command dumped just once. In an AI game I was organizing about ten TFs at Pearl to invade the Marshals. Elegant sets of leads and follows. But for three turns they wouldn't leave Pearl. I finally had to have them leave and rally-point at Maui, then go a Remain on Station hex two away in open blue water to the west. Then I re-ordered the leads and follower architectures and they took off for the target. But I've never had a Follow order dump in mid-transit.

[FeurerKrieg]

I'm starting to wonder which is harder - Japanese production logistics or Allied military logistics....us Japan players never have enough stuff to worry about setting up all these TF's on follow. [:D]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

I'm starting to wonder which is harder - Japanese production logistics or Allied military logistics....us Japan players never have enough stuff to worry about setting up all these TF's on follow. [:D]

Yeah, I think mine was in early 1943. Then I got more stuff. [:'(]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I'm not sure how to interpret the bolded part. If the lead TF is set to Mission and does 9 and the Follow TFs are set to Cruise and do 4 that seems to be a problem, maybe. If the lead TF Cruise is more than 4 I'm not sure how the code treats that. If it can go to absolute knot numbers and match them against the Followers' set speeds, or if there are only three "notches" for lead TF speed--Cruise, Mission, Full. If the lead TF is faster it should slow down to let the Followers keep up, but I don't know what happens if the Followers set speed is slower than the lead's Cruise. There ought to be an error trap for that I'd think.

I had a Follow command dumped just once. In an AI game I was organizing about ten TFs at Pearl to invade the Marshals. Elegant sets of leads and follows. But for three turns they wouldn't leave Pearl. I finally had to have them leave and rally-point at Maui, then go a Remain on Station hex two away in open blue water to the west. Then I re-ordered the leads and follower architectures and they took off for the target. But I've never had a Follow order dump in mid-transit.

Ah, all were set to mission so the leading SCTF should only do 4 hexes? If one of the TFs are slower they all wait for the slowest TF. At least that is how it has worked so far.

This is the first time I´ve seen it wiped too. Bad timing. [:(]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Lessons learned[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I thought it might be time to try and summarize what went wrong and what to try and avoid in the future. There are some important lessons to be learnt here.

------------------------
Strategic Win
------------------------
Strategically it was a success. Some may argue its a strategical defeat as well but that depends on how you look at it. Is it a necessary move? The answer to that is no. I could have easily achieved AV by just continuing to do night bombings. The Japanese industry in range of the Okinawas is more then enough to achieve that. And with the SU activation the Japanese LCU losses would have been more then enough VPs.

So it wasn´t a necessary move at all. I could have just stayed and done nothing but nightbombings. But in all honestly that wouldn´t have been very fun. Neither for me or Erik or for you guys reading. I promised myself to try a daylight bombing campaign and doing that from the Okinawas is simply not possible. As I mentioned before you just don´t have enough space there.

Keep in mind that just one week ago Erik had 2500 Fighters in range of Kyushu. We are not talking about the real war situation where Japan was already beaten. Erik has an air force that to an extent is better then the Allied. I need at least one level 9 AF to stage the bombers on. The bombers alone are something like 4000 engines. Then add P38 escorts (only plane with a decent pool that has the range needed) which is a two engine plane. You can´t house them all without a level 9 AF. Period.

So now I have that much needed level 9 AF. I call that a strategic success.

------------------------
Tactical Loss
------------------------
This is a pretty straight forward on. I lost 6 CVs + 11 CVEs and Erik lost 3 BBs and 20 DDs + some smaller shipping. Of course that is a defeat.

Here I did the only really bad choice and paid the price for it. I stood down my strike planes so they wouldn´t fly into the 900 plane CAP at Nagasaki. This is something I will NEVER do again. If I hadn´t done that the KB would have been gone now. Unforgivable mistake. Learn and move on. Its better to lose 500 planes going after some MTBs then to miss what might have been the only chance to get rid of the KB.

I had never suffered a CV reaction before. Bad timing. This moved the CVs 4 hexes to the East almost ending up right on the shores of Kyushu only 3 hexes from the KB. It also left the surface fleet completely without protection. Without the reaction things might have looked differently. Lesson to be learned: Just because I never suffered a CV reaction before does not mean I´m immune to it.

Day 2 I can´t really explain what happened. As mentioned before 4 of my 5 TFs scattered all around the map as seen in one of the screens. Everything was set to rendezvous at Moppo covering the previously damaged CVEs and Amphibs. Only the Fast CVs ended up where they were supposed to. This cost me almost as much as the first day. As I don´t know what really happened I guess the lesson to be learned here is that nothing goes to plan.

------------------------
The Future.
------------------------
On day one I took a deliberate risk and made a VERY poor choices. So that is on me. Day two is harder to swallow. I can´t let this get to me though. I set out to land in Korea and I did so.

This is not a disaster, its a setback. I´ve secured Moppo (coming in the next update). Most of the damaged ships have suffered only minor damage and will be quickly repaired. I counted up the CV fleet and I still have 2600 CV planes. That is still three times the size of KB. Its also quite possible the last two days will have given Erik the impression I have been struck a mortal blow. Even some readers of this AAR seems to believe that. Victory decease is not unheard of and its not impossible Erik now thinks the KB rules the seas again. In prior email exchanges he has been off with 1500 planes when talking about allied CV planes. I have not corrected him. [:)]

I have opened a completely new front. Erik has at times had a tendency to overreact. Its quite possible he may send way too much troops into Korea without regards to the SU activation or supply usage. Korea is poor defensive terrain in the south. Incidentally thats the part I want. [:)] It will be VERY hard for him to defend here and in doing so he may "bankrupt" himself on supply. Last turn he suffered negative supply modifier in every battle.

I´m positive for the future. Not only because I have to. I´m in a good position. Keeping Moppo supplied and fed may be hard but I´ve done stuff like that for 3 years now. My system of using barges to land parts of a single unit per turn has worked before. It takes time but is relative safe. Its hard to get Naval attacks to fly against these small TFs and if they do the LRCAP will ensure he takes heavy losses for almost no gain. Losing 500 planes for 3/4ths of a SeeBee and 20 barges will probably deter him pretty fast. Subs, hordes of PTs and Fletcher and mines will make any attempt to strike from the sea very risky. Lose too many OPs and get stuck at sea is a death sentence.

It will certainly be some interesting months but I´m still hopeful and confident. A loss like this would have devastated me 6 months ago but now I only shrug. I´m content with the trade. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]16th May -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

A good day. This report is based on reading the CR only. I have not received the turn nor the replay.

------------------------
Korea
------------------------
The attack at Moppo did well and cleared the base. Only the infantry took part as the armor was set to pursuit the fleeing troops. Strike two more IDs from the Japanese OOB.

Ground combat at Moppo (100,54)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 102591 troops, 2213 guns, 1886 vehicles, Assault Value = 5642

Defending force 18343 troops, 260 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 673

Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3

Allied adjusted assault: 2753

Japanese adjusted defense: 236

Allied assault odds: 11 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Moppo !!!

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-100-I Tony: 28 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
10440 casualties reported
Squads: 141 destroyed, 164 disabled
Non Combat: 164 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 80 destroyed, 12 disabled
Guns lost 190 (137 destroyed, 53 disabled)
Units retreated 5

Allied ground losses:
782 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 139 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Guns lost 32 (1 destroyed, 31 disabled)
Units pursuing 21

Assaulting units:
98th Infantry Division
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
5th Marine Division
766th Tank Battalion
1st USMC Tank Battalion
96th Infantry Division
716th Tank Battalion
Americal Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
193rd Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
XI Corps Combat Engineer Regiment
706th Tank Battalion
6th Marine Division
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
3rd Marine Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
710th Tank Battalion
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
2nd Marine Division
81st Infantry Division
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
713th Flame Tank Battalion
711th Tank Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
33rd Infantry Division
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
1st USMC Air Wing Base Force
3rd USMC Field Artillery Battalion
8th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
2nd Eng Amph Bde
I Corps Artillery
V US Amphib Corps
Pacific Ocean Areas
251st Field Artillery Battalion
XXIV US Corps
118th USAAF Base Force
1 USMC Seacoast Art
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion
X Corps Artillery
X US Corps
242nd USN Base Force
I US Corps
1st Medium Regiment
4th USMC Air Wing Base Force
Tenth US Army
147th Field Artillery Regiment
12th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
148th Field Artillery Battalion
4th Eng Amph Bde
XIV Corps Artillery
XI US Corps
4th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
South Pacific
XXIV CorpsArtillery
10th USMC Field Artillery Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
121st Division
96th Division
77th Infantry Regiment
26th Field Artillery Regiment
76th JAAF AF Bn

The supply modifier is encouraging. With some luck Erik might not be able to mount a meaningful resistance due to lack of it. Events in China seem to suggest its continent wide problem for him. The armor is of course in full pursuit.

------------------------
East China Sea
------------------------
Not sure why (again) but some ships are still outside air cover. A crippled APA and CVE are sunk together with 2 DEs also crippled in earlier battles.. Probably didn´t make it the 3 hexes to where the fleet was waiting. Scattered strikes are launched in the area. Most hit the CV CAP (700 Fighters strong) this time and I estimate at least 150-250 Japanese planes are shot down.

------------------------
China
------------------------
The blocking force to the road North is easily swept aside. Judging by the AV they must have been completely out of supply and disabled before the attack. We will continue straight north to finish off the 2000 AV stack blocking the Chinese. Once that is done its just a matter of unleashing the hordes.

Strike a 3rd Japanese ID in the same day. Good haul.

Ground combat at 73,53 (near Tuyun)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 66030 troops, 788 guns, 162 vehicles, Assault Value = 2707

Defending force 4741 troops, 90 guns, 34 vehicles, Assault Value = 18 [X(]

Allied adjusted assault: 1722

Japanese adjusted defense: 1

Allied assault odds: 1722 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), morale(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4480 casualties reported
Squads: 380 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 63 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 49 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 64 (64 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 17 (17 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
7 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
3rd New Chinese Corps
11th (East African) Division
16th Chindit Brigade
81st (West African) Division
6th New Chinese Corps

Defending units:
17th Division

------------------------
Strategic Bombing
------------------------
I decided to let lose every B29 to strike the 160 LI at Keijo (Korea). If will continue to make this a priority until every HI and LI in Korea is completely wiped out. Despite bad weather we managed to get a lot of hits in due to the lack of NFs.

Night Air attack on Keijo , at 103,50

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 75 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-29-1 Superfort x 8
B-29-25 Superfort x 30
B-29B Superfort x 23

No Allied losses

Light Industry hits 17

During the night I count 79 LI hits. That might mean its completely wiped out. A good haul

We also do out first day time attack over Kyushu. This should present Erik with a dilemma. He now has to devote a large portion of his Fighters to cover his industry. Putting them low to catch the bombers will mean he will expose himself to sweeps... Our target was the Frank factory at Fukuoka. With the losses from the previous days Eriks air defense have huge holes in them. This was one them. Only 30 Fighters on CAP. The rest was on LRCAP meaning they had problems taking part in the defense. No radar in place or a failed roll?

Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 37,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 76
J2M5 Jack x 11
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar x 3
Ki-102a Randy x 7

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 9 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IIIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-102a Randy: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47N Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

The bombers encounter some resistance and no doubt I´ve took some losses. But this is how we win the war.

Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud [:(]

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 42
J2M5 Jack x 7
Ki-102a Randy x 3

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 11

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged

Ki-84r Frank factory hits 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Fukuoka , at 103,57

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud [:(]

Raid detected at 43 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 31
J2M5 Jack x 6
Ki-102a Randy x 3

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 55

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 14 damaged

Ki-84r Frank factory hits 1

Sadly those are the only 3 hits. But its a start!

[JocMeister]

Perhaps the thread should now say "Battle for Korea" instead of Okinawa! [:)]

[koniu]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Perhaps the thread should now say "Battle for Korea" instead of Okinawa! [:)]

Or You can mind play with Obvert and rename it in few weeks to "Invasion Hokkaido"

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Ah, all were set to mission so the leading SCTF should only do 4 hexes? If one of the TFs are slower they all wait for the slowest TF. At least that is how it has worked so far.

Without more data it's hard to say. What I was pondering--and I don't know the answer--is what happens if all are on Mission, but the Mission of the slow guys is not as fast as even the Cruise of the lead. Can ships using engine code move at less than their Cruise? I think they do default to 1-hex in that case, but I'm not sure. Normally a fast lead will slow to wait for a slower follower, but is there a limit? Is the slowing able to be an integer knot number, or is the speed range restricted to just the three notches of Cruise, Mission, Fast?

[ny59giants]

Looking at the combat result for Moppo and I think this is what a non-stacking limit game looks like. [X(] I can glean some lessons from your game, but not much in ground combat as I'm stuck in Burma right now, but should break through soon. The big lesson in ground combat is just one simple thing....DISRUPTION!! Regardless of whats there defending, this one thing in a combat result tips the balance. Do you agree??

Mines - Can you start to lay a mine field from Moppo SW to allow your ships some form of protection from Japan?? Either by a massive sub TF or from CMs??

Saishu To - This base off Moppo is defended by what?? Is it worth taking??

[Bullwinkle58]

Don't count me in the group that thinks this was an Allied defeat. You had a strategic goal; you achieved it. The loss of the ships is a shame, but they did the job, and, as you say, you're largely done with them now. If this had been a year ago it would be different.

This fundamentally changes the game board. Supply was a problem before for Japan; now it's beyond critical. The Korea ports are OOC. You can bomb out any amount of Korea-based LI.

The consensus seems to be that Korea is counted by the game engine as being part of the 8000 AV garrison requirement. This was news to me but good to know for the future. This works against Japan in this case once you have a firm beachhead in Asia.

Why? Now, in addition to balancing his supply needs and aircraft factors and retreat paths and where to defend, every land battle has to be considered in terms of falling below 8000 and getting a months-early visit from the Bear. In essence there's a dead-man switch involved and you're holding it, not him. A possible tactic for you might be to let up on HI bombing for now and go all out in Korea with a view less to taking and holding dirt and more to simple AV destruction, with a view to early activation. I don't know his AV numbers in the relevant territory--well over 8000 probably--but it might be done in 30-40 days if you use air and armor. Getting the Soviets in June rather than mid-August makes it interesting for him.

If you're looking for an interim challenge. If not, you can push north conventionally and wait for August regardless.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: koniu

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Perhaps the thread should now say "Battle for Korea" instead of Okinawa! [:)]

Or You can mind play with Obvert and rename it in few weeks to "Invasion Hokkaido"

Haha, now that would be something! [:D]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Without more data it's hard to say. What I was pondering--and I don't know the answer--is what happens if all are on Mission, but the Mission of the slow guys is not as fast as even the Cruise of the lead. Can ships using engine code move at less than their Cruise? I think they do default to 1-hex in that case, but I'm not sure. Normally a fast lead will slow to wait for a slower follower, but is there a limit? Is the slowing able to be an integer knot number, or is the speed range restricted to just the three notches of Cruise, Mission, Fast?

Hmm, I don´t know about mission slower then their cruise speed. Interesting question!

I´ve done some more testing the morning and I still can´t replicate it. That being said I´m not using nowhere near as many enemy TFs or planes for the testing. So far every single test have had them move "as expected".

I´ve kept a separate save of the turn though. When the game is done I´ll ask Erik to run it again and see if I can replicate it "live" sort of speaking.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Looking at the combat result for Moppo and I think this is what a non-stacking limit game looks like. [X(] I can glean some lessons from your game, but not much in ground combat as I'm stuck in Burma right now, but should break through soon. The big lesson in ground combat is just one simple thing....DISRUPTION!! Regardless of whats there defending, this one thing in a combat result tips the balance. Do you agree??

Mines - Can you start to lay a mine field from Moppo SW to allow your ships some form of protection from Japan?? Either by a massive sub TF or from CMs??

Saishu To - This base off Moppo is defended by what?? Is it worth taking??

The SL for Moppo is still 80.000. I would have landed with almost the same troops but skipping the BFs and most of the artillery. The armor will probably one need 2 days to move out and then the stacking should be within limits. I would only have added a "suicide" supply TF to stay and keep unloading.

Yes, disruption is a huge factor. But much harder to achieve then you might think. I bombd one of Eriks superstacks in Burma for months and months in x2 terrain and yet when I attacked he didn´t even suffer a negative modifier. But if he shows himself in a clear hex...those troops will be useless for a week or two! [:)]

Regarding mines they are completely out. Only have aerial mines left. Don´t think I can drop those outside enemy bases. [:(]

Saishu To will be liberated shortly. Can never hurt to have it! [:)]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Don't count me in the group that thinks this was an Allied defeat. You had a strategic goal; you achieved it. The loss of the ships is a shame, but they did the job, and, as you say, you're largely done with them now. If this had been a year ago it would be different.

This fundamentally changes the game board. Supply was a problem before for Japan; now it's beyond critical. The Korea ports are OOC. You can bomb out any amount of Korea-based LI.

The consensus seems to be that Korea is counted by the game engine as being part of the 8000 AV garrison requirement. This was news to me but good to know for the future. This works against Japan in this case once you have a firm beachhead in Asia.

Why? Now, in addition to balancing his supply needs and aircraft factors and retreat paths and where to defend, every land battle has to be considered in terms of falling below 8000 and getting a months-early visit from the Bear. In essence there's a dead-man switch involved and you're holding it, not him. A possible tactic for you might be to let up on HI bombing for now and go all out in Korea with a view less to taking and holding dirt and more to simple AV destruction, with a view to early activation. I don't know his AV numbers in the relevant territory--well over 8000 probably--but it might be done in 30-40 days if you use air and armor. Getting the Soviets in June rather than mid-August makes it interesting for him.

If you're looking for an interim challenge. If not, you can push north conventionally and wait for August regardless.

Thank you Bullwinkle! [:)]

I´m was trying to see the "big picture" and I thought I did with this landing. I still think it was a good trade and I hope to show that in the coming 6 months! Glad you are aboard with me! Makes me feel better about the choice. [:)]

I would give my left pinky to know how close he is to the garrison requirement. 9k?, 10k? 12k? It could go really fast regardless. All it take is one lost major battle and the armor will be all over his retreating troops. He is already down 2 IDs. Fighting in mostly clear hexes against Allied late war LCUs while suffering negative supply modifiers...one retreat and the pursuing allied Armor could wreck thousands of AV in a couple of days. There are good roads in Korea and Armor will move at 1 hex per turn on those roads so he can´t outrun them.

I´ll try and secure the southern part of Korea and see what kind of resistance he throws up. Erik is hard to read sometimes. Going by his usual MO he will Superstack around Keijo. If he does the terrain will make it hard for me to inflict casualties. There is a line with x3 terrain across entire Korea there. But if he moves to the south in force meeting me in the clear terrain his losses could become horrendous pretty fast. If so I will throw everything I got at him and see what happens!

I guess I will let Eriks actions decide how I should play this. Given the opportunity I will certainly try and wreck as much AV as possible!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Don't count me in the group that thinks this was an Allied defeat. You had a strategic goal; you achieved it. The loss of the ships is a shame, but they did the job, and, as you say, you're largely done with them now. If this had been a year ago it would be different.

This fundamentally changes the game board. Supply was a problem before for Japan; now it's beyond critical. The Korea ports are OOC. You can bomb out any amount of Korea-based LI.

The consensus seems to be that Korea is counted by the game engine as being part of the 8000 AV garrison requirement. This was news to me but good to know for the future. This works against Japan in this case once you have a firm beachhead in Asia.

Why? Now, in addition to balancing his supply needs and aircraft factors and retreat paths and where to defend, every land battle has to be considered in terms of falling below 8000 and getting a months-early visit from the Bear. In essence there's a dead-man switch involved and you're holding it, not him. A possible tactic for you might be to let up on HI bombing for now and go all out in Korea with a view less to taking and holding dirt and more to simple AV destruction, with a view to early activation. I don't know his AV numbers in the relevant territory--well over 8000 probably--but it might be done in 30-40 days if you use air and armor. Getting the Soviets in June rather than mid-August makes it interesting for him.

If you're looking for an interim challenge. If not, you can push north conventionally and wait for August regardless.

That's right. The losses were like scraping your knuckles when changing out your automobile's engine. Something was inevitable but maybe that was more than was necessary. Still the job got done and the 'real' situation is altered as planned because of it.