Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek

[Peltonx]

If he goes directly against Moscow, without causing me huge trouble in the south... well, the Germans will be deeming Verdun as a walk in the park.

I would not be so sure about that. With proper planning Moscow can be taken in 42. After reading Katza's AAR with 76mm after 41 the terrain north of Tula is good for pocketing russians. The same woods that help ruusian defences help the Germans hold pockets closed.

If German forses achieve a breakthrough in the north it is far more likely to hold then south of Tula. The ground north of Tula is far more hard for the Russians to recover, its Germanys anchor from 43 on.

Also the Germans can change pionts of attack quicker then the SHC can react.

The Germans recieve about 30 new divisions before July 1st 1942.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

If he goes directly against Moscow, without causing me huge trouble in the south... well, the Germans will be deeming Verdun as a walk in the park.

I would not be so sure about that. With proper planning Moscow can be taken in 42. After reading Katza's AAR with 76mm after 41 the terrain north of Tula is good for pocketing russians. The same woods that help ruusian defences help the Germans hold pockets closed.

That's the reason because I'm keeping 6 armies in or around Moscow. And also the reason for keeping 4 more - including the now "elite" 1st and 2nd Shock - concentrated around Tula. He can try, and be successful, but the Verdun - a German victory I think - remark was about the cost for the German army.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
If German forses achieve a breakthrough in the north it is far more likely to hold then south of Tula. The ground north of Tula is far more hard for the Russians to recover, its Germanys anchor from 43 on.

On one of my games with the Axis I thought that... but quickly realized that the terrain doesn't really favor the defense of armored formations. The closer combat ranges mean that the Russian infantry can have more effect than it would on open terrain. More true if Rifle Corps are involved, with the ability of concentrate a lot of sappers and blow up those forts.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
Also the Germans can change pionts of attack quicker then the SHC can react.

Indeed, and also their operational condition degrades pretty quickly. Here perhaps we'll disagree, but not having the armor concentrated - in the attack - isn't a sound thing. One needs to keep focus and pressing on clear objectives for some time... otherwise what was gained with a lot of blood might be easily undone.

ORIGINAL: Pelton
The Germans recieve about 30 new divisions before July 1st 1942.

That's something very important. Mostly fresh infantry, which is indeed good. But that is - to some extent - balanced out with the elite Waffen SS divisions retreating... Those black-clad guys are certainly a force to be reckoned with, and Q-Ball owes a great deal of his success in the south to them. I always take note of where these guys are placed and plan accordingly.

[Peltonx]

That's the reason because I'm keeping 6 armies in or around Moscow. And also the reason for keeping 4 more - including the now "elite" 1st and 2nd Shock - concentrated around Tula. He can try, and be successful, but the Verdun - a German victory I think - remark was about the cost for the German army.

You have planned so your rdy and it would be Verdun for Q-ball. I am just saying if the Russian player has not planned ahead Tula north is as easy to pocket units as Tula south.

Indeed, and also their operational condition degrades pretty quickly. Here perhaps we'll disagree, but not having the armor concentrated - in the attack - isn't a sound thing. One needs to keep focus and pressing on clear objectives for some time... otherwise what was gained with a lot of blood might be easily undone.

German armor is usless unless double stacked during 42, but the mech units do fine. With the center bubble the german can change from north to south with very little in the way of degrading armor. If you cut the right rail lines this can be a major plus for changing fronts quickly. At some point the flanks get to far apart and you have to commit to north or south.

I would say your in the best possible positions, plus giving up the least important area. If he goes after the oil you will have a very large forse to try and close the gap around Rostov. With rail repair at 4 to 5 hexs per turn tring for oil is a long shot and will really leave some weak points in lines of both armys.

Pelton

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Pelton

That's the reason because I'm keeping 6 armies in or around Moscow. And also the reason for keeping 4 more - including the now "elite" 1st and 2nd Shock - concentrated around Tula. He can try, and be successful, but the Verdun - a German victory I think - remark was about the cost for the German army.

You have planned so your rdy and it would be Verdun for Q-ball. I am just saying if the Russian player has not planned ahead Tula north is as easy to pocket units as Tula south.

Well, having a plan doesn't mean it will work Now I get what you meant before, but I wasn't being very clear myself.

ORIGINAL: Pelton

Indeed, and also their operational condition degrades pretty quickly. Here perhaps we'll disagree, but not having the armor concentrated - in the attack - isn't a sound thing. One needs to keep focus and pressing on clear objectives for some time... otherwise what was gained with a lot of blood might be easily undone.

German armor is usless unless double stacked during 42, but the mech units do fine. With the center bubble the german can change from north to south with very little in the way of degrading armor. If you cut the right rail lines this can be a major plus for changing fronts quickly. At some point the flanks get to far apart and you have to commit to north or south.

I would say your in the best possible positions, plus giving up the least important area. If he goes after the oil you will have a very large forse to try and close the gap around Rostov. With rail repair at 4 to 5 hexs per turn tring for oil is a long shot and will really leave some weak points in lines of both armys.

Thank you for the observations Pelton. I highlighted with bold face the part that I think it's indeed key: to force Q-Ball hand into a decision which can't be easily reverted. A game of chicken, indeed.

[asdicus]

Really informative aar as usual. Sad you haven't been able to update so much recently.

How are your partisans getting on ? By mid 1942 they should be fairly effective at cutting rail lines. Have you got plenty of vvs planes supplying them ? Can we see a picture please of recent rail cut battles ? Perhaps the partisan oob ? The russians need all the help they can find in 1942 and I am hoping the game allows partisans to be a proper pain for the germans.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: asdicus

Really informative aar as usual. Sad you haven't been able to update so much recently.

How are your partisans getting on ? By mid 1942 they should be fairly effective at cutting rail lines. Have you got plenty of vvs planes supplying them ? Can we see a picture please of recent rail cut battles ? Perhaps the partisan oob ? The russians need all the help they can find in 1942 and I am hoping the game allows partisans to be a proper pain for the germans.

Hi asdicus,

thanks for reading and I'm glad you find this informative

Ok, I take note of your request and will satisfy it in the next update. But before that, what I can say is that the partisan war in our game might not be as much of a nuisance as in other games because I forgot completely about setting the night supply train... something I fixed 8 or 10 turns ago (I don't remember exactly).

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 48 – 14 May 1942

The rasputitsa returns to the vast Russian expanses, and with its return, operations grind to halt. Not much to talk about this turn, but I think it will be a good idea to show a bird's eye view of the frontline.

Here's the positions in the “center” from Rzhev to Voronezh:

[center][/center]

I think you can see clearly the frontline armies and the operational reserves. I'm having a hard time finding the troops for establishing a truly strategic reserve, to be honest. The huge concentration you can see west of Voronezh is meant to put some hurt on the Hungarians next turn. It's also worth noting that Q-Ball has two Panzer Armees poised east of Orel... waiting for an offensive of mine?

You'll notice that I'm not doing a hedgehog. That's basically because of the weather: I prefer to have my guys sitting on railroads to maximize the supply and replacements they get. When weather changes to clear, this will probably change, though I'm no friend of dispersing my forces unless it's strictly necessary.

And here the positions in the “south” in the long frontline that more or less follows the quietly flowing Don waters

[center][/center]

I've marked with blue arrows the directions in which I expect Q-Ball to conduct his “serious” attacks. I've yet to fully pinpoint the location of at least another Panzer Armee, probably 2nd, the one that pushed during March towards Voronezh. That's Q-Ball wildcard.

[BletchleyGeek]

Turn 49 – 21 May 1942

Clear turn, turn of combat. Q-Ball has launched a total of 32 attacks – counting anti-partisan ops – and I got not one single Held result. Clearly Q-Ball is trying to minimize the damage he's suffering from his offensive operations, aiming for “sure shots” and Hasty becoming a thing from the past: just 2 attacks, when his average was about 50% of the overall attacks launched.

The Luftwaffe is still having holidays in Germany: so it's another bloody turn for the VVS.

Operational Situation Report

Q-Ball keeps expanding his bridgehead over the Don and along the Starobelsk – Belovodsk axis, and gets Rostov, something that was written in the wall. Interestingly I don't find any motorized formations backing the latter:

[center][/center]

and I see his forces south of the Don not really recovering their “mojo”. Though I don't know if Q-Ball has done so little headway because of my strategy, because logistics or because he didn't want to push too hard.

Further to the north he's also been doing selective attacks on whatever looked to him ready for a picking – less than expected to some extent. One thing catches my eye:

[center][/center]

a pretty obvious movement to cut off the salient west of Voronezh. Or perhaps that PzKorps is going towards Orel... in any case, I'd like Q-Ball to commit like that, even if I have to risk losing a few divisions. If I displace forces on the flanks, perhaps I will be able to put some hurt on Q-Ball. Perhaps.

Operations

I launch 9 attacks over Q-Ball's forces, this turn there have been less soft spots to hit. I've not been as successful either, and I've got 2 Held results. For some reason, I think I can't complain at all.

Now I've really got substantial reserves south of the Don, perhaps, now that I come to think about it, too substantial:

[center][/center]

He's strong here because he's concentrated. I think Q-Ball is now thinking that if he advances further he'll get too easily overextended. I'm sort of expecting him to take the right decision...

I'm looking really hard at the overall situation, trying to find if there's something in my position that would allow me to force upon him – yet – a “Heads I won, Tails you lose” decision. Not yet.

[M60A3TTS]

At least he's just been pushing and not gobbling up units. That's allowing you to keep AP spends down since no need to replace units. What is your AP count now?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

At least he's just been pushing and not gobbling up units.

This tug-of-war is detrimental to Q-Ball interests. By doing these limited attacks he's giving me the opportunity of counterattacking, so attrition mounts. The motorized divisions he has on the southern bank of the Don are already showing signs of weakening, due to the combat and the lower amount of supply. At least logistics aren't so broken as to allow he to run rampage without securing a railhead over the river (he still has none).

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
That's allowing you to keep AP spends down since no need to replace units. What is your AP count now?

About 100. I've refrained from re-building the units I lost during March, basically because of the possibility of consolidating Bdes into Divisions. With the Tank Corps program completed by now - I'm already hurting from lack of trucks - I don't think I'll be building much more specialist units.

Depending on the situation, I'm considering to make a "Volunteers Call" during July and round up a pool of strategic reserves, by buying Rifle Bdes in pairs and consolidating them into Rifle Divisions, along with some more Motorized Bdes.

I'd like to keep 50 AP's or so always as a reserve, to put leaders in key places and reattaching commands as appropiate.

[Klydon]

I would look to get those mountian divisions out of the line. They are particularly juicy targets since they can't be replaced and would be handy for you later on. Use them as part of a reserve instead would be my opinion.

I also think you need to start a pipeline of units going. If you have a "oh s---" turn AND then try to start up construction of units, it will be a good 4 turns before the first of them would be available and ideally, you would want to wait a couple turns past that so they just are not new meat for a line. Building brigade pairs is fine, but you probably need to look to get something going.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I would look to get those mountian divisions out of the line. They are particularly juicy targets since they can't be replaced and would be handy for you later on. Use them as part of a reserve instead would be my opinion.

Indeed. There's an army behind them - consisting on units that were pretty much smashed during March - that will replace them this turn. These are some of my premium units and I only could hold the line with them.

ORIGINAL: Klydon
I also think you need to start a pipeline of units going. If you have a "oh s---" turn AND then try to start up construction of units, it will be a good 4 turns before the first of them would be available and ideally, you would want to wait a couple turns past that so they just are not new meat for a line. Building brigade pairs is fine, but you probably need to look to get something going.

As I finished answering to M60 I was thinking along the same lines. That "oh s---" turn is indeed a likely thing to happen. Thank you for reinforcing that feeling [;)]

[Tarhunnas]

Just a suggestion: Why not let him expand south of Rostov? Luring him on might set him up for as counteroffensive later?

[Baelfiin]

This situation is what I like about playing the Russians, especially in '42.

You know the Germans are coming, but not completely sure exactly where or how hard they are going to hit.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Just a suggestion: Why not let him expand south of Rostov? Luring him on might set him up for as counteroffensive later?

That's the idea, but I don't want him either to hit the oil fields for free. I'm taking an army - which needs badly to rest after having been smashed twice already - to Stalingrad. I might take out more forces, but I think I should be careful. He could well sweep from that bridgehead of his to the Sea of Azov and cutoff 29th Army - the formation that is defending the left flank.

I don't want to rile him but I don't want either to "go Japanese" and take unreasonable chances.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Baelfiin

This situation is what I like about playing the Russians, especially in '42.

You know the Germans are coming, but not completely sure exactly where or how hard they are going to hit.

Yes, that pretty much sums up our game [:)]

[Flaviusx]

There are two keys to a good caucuses defense.

1. Don't let yourself get decisively engaged up north. The real stopline lies much further south, along the Terek river and the foothills. A bit further north on the Black sea cost, where the difficult terrain starts earlier.

2. Communications. Try to keep the Astrakhan rail line open. Once that goes, you're limited to shipping units via the Caspian or building new units in the area outright. If it becomes clear that the rail connection is going to be cut, rush whatever you can down there so you can stabilize the front at the aforementioned stop line, and continue to ship and/or build enough units to keep things stable.

This doesn't mean you have to runaway to the defenses further south right away, you can fight a delaying action from Rostov to Krasnodar. But be careful not to get pocketed. If the German pours enough mobile units, he'll gain this area. And that's fine as long as you can suck him into fighting further south. With that commitment made, his line will stretch to the breaking point and you can start looking for good places to make counterattacks and stress his position. The Axis imo do not have the unit density to stretch themselves all the way from Leningrad to Baku barring a complete crack up of the Red Army.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

There are two keys to a good caucuses defense.

1. Don't let yourself get decisively engaged up north. The real stopline lies much further south, along the Terek river and the foothills. A bit further north on the Black sea cost, where the difficult terrain starts earlier.

2. Communications. Try to keep the Astrakhan rail line open. Once that goes, you're limited to shipping units via the Caspian or building new units in the area outright. If it becomes clear that the rail connection is going to be cut, rush whatever you can down there so you can stabilize the front at the aforementioned stop line, and continue to ship and/or build enough units to keep things stable.

This doesn't mean you have to runaway to the defenses further south right away, you can fight a delaying action from Rostov to Krasnodar. But be careful not to get pocketed. If the German pours enough mobile units, he'll gain this area. And that's fine as long as you can suck him into fighting further south. With that commitment made, his line will stretch to the breaking point and you can start looking for good places to make counterattacks and stress his position. The Axis imo do not have the unit density to stretch themselves all the way from Leningrad to Baku barring a complete crack up of the Red Army.

Thank you for the advice Flavio. I agree with you that the battle along the Krasnodar - Grozny and the Astrakhan - Baku rail lines is key. I'm already setting up a few divisions in key places there, and waiting for further releases of Trans Caucasus forces. We'll see if Q-Ball decides for the south, or perhaps, more probably a combo of the Caucasus and going along the Voronezh - Tambov axis and threaten Moscow from the east.

[M60A3TTS]

From what cards Q-Ball is showing thus far, I'm not seeing a strong message saying "Baku or Bust." Not quite sure what fast movers are south of the Don, but it's at least one SS motorized, one Heer motorized and two panzers. Not exactly a deep threat at this stage. You might up the air recon in the area of Chistyakovo/Mateev Kurgan to see who if anyone is following behind. He would have to have more coming in order to extend the battle lines south.

His deployments suggest a pretty balanced offensive approach with panzers around Kursk, Orel and Rostov. That could change as he still has a few weeks before all clear weather to shift about, but what we've seen so far may be what he sticks with through summer.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

From what cards Q-Ball is showing thus far, I'm not seeing a strong message saying "Baku or Bust." Not quite sure what fast movers are south of the Don, but it's at least one SS motorized, one Heer motorized and two panzers. Not exactly a deep threat at this stage. You might up the air recon in the area of Chistyakovo/Mateev Kurgan to see who if anyone is following behind. He would have to have more coming in order to extend the battle lines south.

His deployments suggest a pretty balanced offensive approach with panzers around Kursk, Orel and Rostov. That could change as he still has a few weeks before all clear weather to shift about, but what we've seen so far may be what he sticks with through summer.

Yes, I see some undecisiveness on his part. But this I think is mostly because of the weather ping-pong. If he actually wants to go for Baku, he needs to smash my forces from Voronezh to Rostov in a consistent way. This requires his axis of advance to diverge, something he probably doesn't like and is mulling over.

Regarding his concentration in the Orel - Kursk sector. My impression is that he's wary of my forces there. His push here in March came out distinctly anemic, since I was deployed in depth and the very best of the Red Army was in reserve.