Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

Turns and updates might be a bit sporadic from me during the coming week. I´m getting married on Saturday and Maria has told that if the hallway/stairs arn´t finished on Thursday she will divorce me right after the wedding. [:D] Apparently she doesn´t want her familiy staying here over weekend if it looks like a building site and the 2nd floor isn´t accessible! Sheesh! [:D]

I´m just a...tad behind schedule...a tad...! [X(]

[Speedysteve]

Hi Jocke,

Very interesting reading!

Many congrats on the pending Wedding [8D]

[JocMeister]

Thanks Speedy! Its certainly tense right now. Havn´t enjoyed the game this much in a very long time! Every turn is nerve wrecking. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Turn is off to Erik.

Another strike at the HI is ordered. Turns out only half the B24s flew yesterday. Most of those were set to the Shinden factory. Guess the destruction of it caused their orders to reset. Very good for me! For tomorrow 200 P38s will again try to escort 120 B24 to Hamamatsu. They will hopefully be preceded by 100 P47Ns sweeping. Target is the Ki-83 factory.

I did a quick recap of Japanese airlosses over the last 20 turns Erik has lost 6100 planes. 6100 planes in 20 turns! [X(] Allied losses are comparably moderate with "only" 2600. Even with the huge number of factories Erik has his pools cannot be endless. He simply shouldn´t be able to completely recover from losses like that. And there is a lot less Japanese planes on the map now according to recon then it was a month ago.

My fighter pools are still in decent shape. I will continue to push for as long as I can. Erik recovers faster then me and I have to keep the pressure and try to prevent him from presenting another wall of 3000 Fighters on CAP. Push push push!

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Allied Airforce[/font]
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I feel reasonable comfortable right now with the pools. While I have seen Eriks number drop significantly all over the HI I have been going without pause for 10-15 turns now. I can keep up with the losses for now.

Erik has went "all in" in Korea and I have been able to ruthlessly pound his LRCAP with sweeps. This a couple of examples from last turn.

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Afternoon Air attack on Osaka/Kyoto , at 109,59

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 2
A7M2 Sam x 5
J2M3 Jack x 3
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 15
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 3
Ki-61-II KAI Tony x 2
Ki-100-I Tony x 5

Allied aircraft
F4U-1D Corsair x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-61-II KAI Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed

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Afternoon Air attack on Nakadori-jima , at 101,57

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 14 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 15
Ki-84r Frank x 5

Allied aircraft
P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 7 destroyed
Ki-84r Frank: 3 destroyed

[/color]

Admittedly the Sweeps are seldom THAT successful but from time to time they are. In the first Sweep we see perhaps an indication that Erik is in trouble. This is the first time in a long while I have encountered previously "obsolete" aircraft as the Zero and Tojo. Perhaps Erik really is starting to feel the pressure.

My landing in Korea has quite unexpectedly opened up the HI. Erik is currently operating 2/3rd of his air force either in offensive mission over Korea or in Naval strike role. I HAVE to use this opportunity. It won´t last forever. Either I will stabilize Korea or lose it. Whatever of those happens Eriks attention is now focused there and not on protecting the HI. Once the Korean situation changes he can focus an undivided air force in protecting the HI. Then I will run into a 500-1000 plane CAP instead of a 100 plane one.

I don´t want to make it sound like I´m nonchalant about my losses over the last month but at some point I will have to suffer losses. Erik has a very, very potent air force filled out with the very latest plane and very well trained pilots. Losses are unavoidable. In fighters alone he can outproduce me with 4:1. You don´t battle that without losses.

I also want to make it VERY clear that I don´t roleplay. I don´t see the losses as "thousands of dead" as one reader expressed himself in a PM. Its a computer game. Not the real war.

So for now I will continue to push as hard as I can. The Japanese air force is ever so slowly bending under allied pressure and being divided on three different objectives. I will never get such an opportunity again.

[morejeffs]

>I also want to make it VERY clear that I don´t roleplay. I don´t see the losses as "thousands of dead" as one reader expressed himself in a PM. Its a computer game. Not the real war.

In particular...When we are playing bumped up versions of Japan..Even scen 1, but with advanced R&D and PDU on....We are fighting a fantasy Japan (which certainly can make for a fairer more interesting game, but is certainly not....a realistic simulation based on actual capacity).

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]4th June -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Got the replay back but not the turn yet.

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Korea
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Naval bombardments go in again. Uncertain if they managed to close the AF again. Probably, but not for certain.

Night Naval bombardment of Moppo at 100,54

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 20 damaged
PBY-5 Catalina: 1 destroyed on ground
Seafire IIC: 3 damaged
Seafire IIC: 1 destroyed on ground
PBM-3D Mariner: 21 damaged
PBM-3D Mariner: 1 destroyed on ground
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 22 damaged
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 1 destroyed on ground
Avenger II: 1 destroyed on ground

Japanese Ships
BB Hyuga
BB Ise
BB Fuso

Allied ground losses:
1246 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 82 disabled
Engineers: 61 destroyed, 147 disabled
Guns lost 7 (2 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 9 (6 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Airbase hits 12
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 46
Port hits 1

Night Naval bombardment of Moppo at 100,54

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBM-3D Mariner: 11 damaged
PBM-3D Mariner: 1 destroyed on ground
Corsair II: 4 damaged
Corsair II: 1 destroyed on ground
SB2C-4 Helldiver: 1 destroyed on ground
Seafire IIC: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Musashi
BB Yamato

Allied ground losses:
481 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 32 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (1 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Airbase hits 8
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 14
Port hits 1

It didn´t come entirely for free though.

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TF 240 encounters mine field at Moppo (100,54)

Japanese Ships
PB Chosa Maru, Mine hits 1, heavy damage
PB Hirota Maru, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

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TF 6 encounters mine field at Moppo (100,54)

Japanese Ships
DD Kiyoshimo, Mine hits 1, heavy damage

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TF 106 encounters mine field at Moppo (100,54)

Japanese Ships
DD Hatsuzakura, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

The last one is later sunk by CV air.

About 500-700 Fighters also Swept Moppo during the day. No bombers. I bet they are all on Naval attack.

More worryingly I see about 500.000 moving towards my troops in Korea. Might be that Eriks supply situation wasn´t as bad as I had hoped. This is quite dangerous. I have 5500 AV including 2500 "Armor" AV but no good defensive terrain...I have to ponder this but it could be potentially VERY dangerous.

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Start bombing
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It went almost as planned. Almost. [:D]

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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 70 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 3
A6M5b Zero x 2
A7M2 Sam x 23
J2M5 Jack x 3
N1K2-J George x 12
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 73
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 3
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 13
Ki-61-Id Tony x 19
Ki-84a Frank x 2
Ki-100-I Tony x 21
Ki-102b Randy x 5

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 45
P-38L Lightning x 22
P-51D Mustang x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-61-Id Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 4 destroyed, 10 damaged
P-38L Lightning: 2 destroyed
P-51D Mustang: 1 destroyed

Ki-83 factory hits 7

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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 52 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 1
A6M5b Zero x 1
A7M2 Sam x 15
J2M5 Jack x 2
N1K2-J George x 9
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 51
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 2
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 9
Ki-61-Id Tony x 11
Ki-84a Frank x 1
Ki-100-I Tony x 16
Ki-102b Randy x 2

Allied aircraft
B-24J Liberator x 26
P-38L Lightning x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-61-Id Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
B-24J Liberator: 1 destroyed, 10 damaged

Ki-83 factory hits 1

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Morning Air attack on Hamamatsu , at 111,61

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A7M2 Sam x 5
J2M5 Jack x 1
N1K2-J George x 5
Ki-43-IV Oscar x 32
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 5
Ki-61-Id Tony x 5
Ki-100-I Tony x 8
Ki-102b Randy x 1

Allied aircraft
P-47N Thunderbolt x 45

Japanese aircraft losses
A7M2 Sam: 1 destroyed
J2M5 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IV Oscar: 10 destroyed
Ki-61-Id Tony: 1 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Can´t really complain though...Got some hits on the Ki-83 factory hopefully wrecking it!


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China
------------------------
A pretty good day here. [:)]

First our armor manages to catch up with the 3 former IDs that made up the relief force.

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Ground combat at 82,53 (near Changsha)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 34004 troops, 581 guns, 1697 vehicles, Assault Value = 1656

Defending force 17328 troops, 153 guns, 20 vehicles, Assault Value = 308

Allied adjusted assault: 1398

Japanese adjusted defense: 215

Allied assault odds: 6 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
9872 casualties reported
Squads: 453 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 233 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 75 (66 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (2 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Units retreated 3

Allied ground losses:
138 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
255th Indian Tank Brigade
19th Motorised Division
50th Tank Brigade
18th Cavalry Regiment
254th Armoured Brigade
3rd Cavalry Regiment
Gardner's Horse Regiment
Provisionl Tank Brigade
17th Motorised Division

Defending units:
63rd Division
35th Division
32nd Division

We also manage to clear out HK (I think all units were "wiped out by attrition")

Ground combat at Hong Kong (77,61)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 83987 troops, 1591 guns, 1530 vehicles, Assault Value = 2585

Defending force 7632 troops, 73 guns, 33 vehicles, Assault Value = 27

Allied adjusted assault: 1497

Japanese adjusted defense: 81

Allied assault odds: 18 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1590 casualties reported
Squads: 63 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 52 destroyed, 102 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 19 (16 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Vehicles lost 6 (3 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
36 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

All in all a good day. But Korea is becoming a worry...

[ny59giants]

At this point in the war, he is going to have to get high disruption on your troops to win, IMO. The combat power of your Marines alone should be enough to prevent you losing. He will need to shift hitting AF to attacking your troops. What amount of AA units did you bring with you?? Got any of those NZ AA brigades with you?? [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

At this point in the war, he is going to have to get high disruption on your troops to win, IMO. The combat power of your Marines alone should be enough to prevent you losing. He will need to shift hitting AF to attacking your troops. What amount of AA units did you bring with you?? Got any of those NZ AA brigades with you?? [:D]

Actually NO. [:(]

Those guys are a BEAST to lift. So I had to chose between two of them or two IDs...they sure would be handy now. I actually feel pretty nervous right now. Then again going on the offensive presents Erik with a wide range of problems that I can perhaps take advantage of!

[ny59giants]

You should pack some of the American AA units with the dual purpose 90mm guns (CD and AA). At least you can fire at the DD on bombardment runs.

I've learned multiple lessons about NOT having AA units with heavy AA guns be with any troops in clear terrain. Getting smacked hard, at times, with just medium AA guns (40mm Bofors or 37mm). [:(] Japanese bombers coming in with over 100 each time above 10k and kill troops. Worse is the disruption goes over 80. Ouch!!

[JocMeister]

I do have coastal guns at Moppo but they refuse to shoot back. I guess Erik has them dialed in to a range outside my CD guns. Yeah, I do have some smaller AA units with me. Erik hasn´t bombed the troops much though. He is too busy keeping to airfield close and bomb ships. [:D]

We will see about this offensive. The Allied armor at this point is a beast and I´m not sure he can break through them. Its A LOT of armor.

But I´m still very, very nervous! Fun! [:)]

[witpqs]

With the coastal guns are always crap shoot as to whether they fire or not, so many variables have to be right. The DP guns I think are less likely to fire at ships, but that are probably more help against a land assault.

An invasion like the one you pulled off really cries out for AA units to be included. I know - when you look at the shipping and have to decide what units to start cutting from the list, it's always ugly! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]5th June -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

A pretty good day.

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Korea
------------------------
Recon is starting to clear the picture. Its indeed and "all out" attack in Korea. As I mentioned earlier this is a worry. Although I have considerable better troops then Erik there is half a MILLION Japanese in Korea right now.

Obviously this will be a matter of staying alive until the SU activates. Considering the number of Japanese here I guess Erik left Manchuria completely unguarded. So I should be able to get down to Korea in 3-4 weeks. That is 3 months from now. So how do I stay alive in 3 months. That is certainly something to ponder...

Erik seems to have forgotten the 1st rule of Japanese army regulations though..."don´t find yourself in a clear hex within 4E range". I´ll see if I can get a good lick in. [:)]

First things first. Erik didn´t bombard last night as he was probably rearming. Considering the gazillion ASW TFs are now back in the area the BBs will come again. So its time to deal with them. I´m going to send in the 8 fast BBs to meet them. It will be tricky to get it right. I will have to make sure the get out before daylight...I´m going to set them to Full speed 1 hex East of Moppo and then retire with a waypoint way out West along the Chinese coast.

Before them I´ll obviously send in some smaller TFs. Some Clevelands and Fletchers. I hope it will work. I still have 7 slow BBs for surface protection of the CV Fleet. I´ll also keep back the CAs as I don´t want them to run into the BBs. Moonlight is low which will help me.

Thoughts? Better ideas?


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Air war
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Allied Sweeps hit all over the HI and Korea shooting down 118 Japanese fighters for 38 own losses. How long can he take this?? Jacks and Sams take the biggest hit.

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China
------------------------
We have begun bombarding the Canton stack with good effect. I wonder if they are completely out of supply now?

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Ground combat at 81,55 (near Pingsiang)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 4110 troops, 270 guns, 306 vehicles, Assault Value = 2099

Defending force 125780 troops, 1272 guns, 702 vehicles, Assault Value = 3595

Japanese ground losses:
579 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 37 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Not much else happening in China right now. The CMA will take a shot at Canton. Forts are probably too high though.

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Strat bombing
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The fires at Osaka is still burning but I´ll admit I´m a little bit disappointed in the result considering the big fires. Still 1100 VPs netted so far. There are still 14.000 fires burning.

[Encircled]

This is fascinating

He's gambling all on his ability to smash your invasion

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Naval plan for 6th of June -45[/font]
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As I mentioned before the naval side of the game is not my strong point. This is the rough idea. I´ll set the destinations of the Fast BBs as indicated and then a waypoint far to the west. I hope this will allow them to withdraw back outside LBA strike range. Supposedly that should make them stop at the waypoint for a phase right? It works sometimes but on many occasions I have had TFs just power on ahead towards their home port. Any ideas on how to make certain they stop at the waypoint (under CV cover).

Both TFs are set to "Full speed", "Direct" and "Absolute" with a react range of "0". I don´t want to risk a reaction eating up OPS and not withdraw before morning.

The smaller TFs (CLs being the biggest ship) will power on one hex further hopefully clearing a path through the millions of smaller ASW TFs. I will use the same setting for them but they will spread out to four or five different hexes and go 1 hex further the the BBs. This is hope will have them "clear a path" through the smaller TFs before the BBs.

I havn´t sent the turn to Erik yet so any input or advice is welcome. This kind of stuff is definitively outside my comfort zone.

[Captain Cruft]

With ops like this be very careful that your combat ships don't end up passing through any of the big fort hexes i.e. Fusan, Tsushima & Iki-shima. All three of these have guns which can sink BBs.

[JocMeister]

Ouff, turn is off to Erik now. I did as I wrote in the post above. I´m mostly worried about the BBs ending up outside CV cover in the morning. Or get "stuck" in Indian country. Have seen that happen on more occasions then I care to remember. [:(]

Fingers crossed. Due to fuel constraints I could only send in 3 smaller TFs. 2 DDs and a British/US CL force.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

With ops like this be very careful that your combat ships don't end up passing through any of the big fort hexes i.e. Fusan, Tsushima & Iki-shima. All three of these have guns which can sink BBs.

Thanks for the warning! Didn´t know that. [:)]

Man I´m nervous right now. Especially for BB2 which had less fuel then I had liked. I´m worried they will stop and refuel the DDs eating up OPs.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

This is fascinating

He's gambling all on his ability to smash your invasion

Indeed, if he succeeds he might even have time to return to the defensive positions in Manchuria (which he must have completely emptied). So I need to survive here until the SU activates pinning the troops.

The mission went from conquest to survival in a heartbeat! Very tense. [X(]

[ny59giants]

My understanding and use of Full Speed means your warships will move their full capability in EACH phase. Thus, ships like Fletchers can go 11 hexes at night and then another 11 for day movement (depending on how many op oints they have left). Earlier in my war I was able to have them just off Cooktown, run over to Milne Bay at night and be back under LRCAP by daylight. Most of your Fast BBs will go their 7 (spd 28) to 9 (spd 33) hexes during each phase.

Waypoints are only for use in getting to Destination hex, not in retreat from that hex back to home port UNLESS at the bottom of the three Waypoints you click on "Return Same Route" to change to Yes.

So you 'may' run into his BB TF, but I doubt they end up anywhere near what you want them to be at come daylight. They could be anywhere from Korea to Okinawa, depending on max speed and op points left from any night action.

Other players, Am I wrong in my understand of Full Speed and Waypoints?? I know about not using waypoints for BB TF, but I thought they worked fine for SC TF.