Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[Lowpe]

From those air losses I can see I need to expand my Jake production...

Fascinating see the end game played out with such details.

Thanks.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

From those air losses I can see I need to expand my Jake production...

Fascinating see the end game played out with such details.

Thanks.

Thanks! Glad you enjoy it. [:)]

[EHansen]

I agree with lowpe, watching this game from both sides is fascinating and educational.

[Lowpe]

Obvert posted the air loss screen too, so you can directly see the impact of FOW.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]12th June -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

The quiet before the storm...

------------------------
Korea
------------------------
Bombardment at Masan do less damage this turn but i´ll keep it up to burn supply. The main allied army will reach Gunzan tomorrow.

------------------------
Home Islands
------------------------
Most of my sweeps rain in. Only 3 flew into a high placed Frank CAP. I lose 16 Corsairs for 8 Franks. Ouch. [:(] No bombing today. But tomorrow we launch the first 1000 plane strike over the HI. It will be at night and hit various targets. The main focus will be the 600 LI at Nagasaki.

------------------------
China
------------------------
The advance north of the Changsha area is going well. A BDE was pushed out of Chihkiang.

Ground combat at Chihkiang (78,50)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 88825 troops, 146 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3391

Defending force 4120 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 146

Allied adjusted assault: 2065

Japanese adjusted defense: 46

Allied assault odds: 44 to 1 (fort level 6)

Allied forces CAPTURE Chihkiang !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), op mode(-), leaders(+), leaders(-)
experience(-), supply(-) Someone forgot to set them to combat mode! [:D]
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1895 casualties reported
Squads: 23 destroyed, 57 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 7 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 12 (9 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
247 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 22 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
59th Chinese Corps
75th Chinese Corps
94th Chinese Corps
91st Chinese Corps
60th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps
74th Chinese Corps
99th Chinese Corps
32nd Group Army
28th Group Army
34th Group Army
40th Group Army
38th Group Army
15th Chinese Base Force

Defending units:
87th Ind.Mixed Brigade

[JocMeister]

Won´t have time to update the AAR tonight as its my birthday and we have some guests over. Did get the turn off to Erik but the update will have to wait until tomorrow!

[Grollub]

Har den äran! [:)]

[JocMeister]

Tackar! [&o]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]12-13th June -45[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not the best of turn in the air. And it turns out Erik has completely emptied out Manchuria...[8|]

------------------------
Korea
------------------------
So I found out what was at Gunzan this turn...

Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1080 troops, 75 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 5706

Defending force 178449 troops, 2259 guns, 1008 vehicles, Assault Value = 6709

Japanese ground losses:
155 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 19 (2 destroyed, 17 disabled)
Vehicles lost 27 (3 destroyed, 24 disabled)

Assaulting units:
716th Tank Battalion
32nd Infantry Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
96th Infantry Division
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
710th Tank Battalion
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
194th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
713th Flame Tank Battalion
38th Infantry Division
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
1st USMC Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
98th Infantry Division
77th Infantry Division
1st Marine Division
193rd Tank Battalion
711th Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
767th Tank Battalion
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
31st Infantry Division
766th Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
5th Marine Division
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
1st Medium Regiment
XI US Corps
15th NZ AA Bde
33rd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
43rd Engineer Regiment
1st Tank Division
128th Division
8th Garrison Unit
10th Division
14th Ind.Infantry Brigade
6th Division
56th Division
83rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
98th Ind.Mixed Brigade
41st Infantry Regiment
24th Division
89th Division
49th Engineer Regiment
14th Garrison Unit
125th Division
4th Division
91st Infantry Regiment
124th Division
23rd Division
9th Division
70th Infantry Brigade
30th Engineer Regiment
29th Division
25th Division
2nd Tank Division
Kwantung Army
17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Special Base Force
7th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
7th Medium Mortar Battalion
8th RF Gun Battalion
45th Ind. AA Battalion
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
73rd Field AA Battalion
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
46th Air Defense AA Battalion
3rd Rocket Gun Battalion
81st Field AA Battalion
12th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th RF Gun Battalion
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
94th Field AA Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
13th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
10th RF Gun Battalion
55th Field AA Battalion
22nd Ind. AA Battalion
10th Mortar AT Gun Regiment
42nd JNAF AF Unit

I´m not really sure what to make of this. Basically Erik has completely emptied out Manchuria. The entire Manchuria garrison is now in Korea. The only things guarding Manchuria right now are the border fortresses. [8|] If this isn´t a situation where the SU should activate I don´t really know what is...this is a shame in many ways. Firstly because its kind of abusing the knowledge of Soviet activation and also because it takes all the fun out of the SU activation. By activating all these units Erik most likely drained what supply he had left. He also moved them out from good defensive positions for which the units had full prepp. Now one of two things will happen:

1. The allied forces in Korea will destroy the Manchuria garrison before the SU activates.
2. The Manchuria garrison will be destroyed in poor defensive positions in Korea without supply between the SU and Allied forces two weeks after SU activation.

Not much fun in that. And completely emptying out Manchuria just feels wrong besides (IMO) being a huge strategical blunder.

Anyway. Using only 2 Arty units I still caused very high losses. And despite an insane number of Japanese artillery units I received very little damage myself. So supply is probably very low and forts low/very low. I turned on the whole stack + the 4Es for tomorrow. If results look good I´ll attack the following turn.

------------------------
Home Islands
------------------------
Not a very good day. The first 1000 plane raid caused...zero damage. Not one hit. [:(] And on the 13th our Sweeps over Kyushu did very poorly.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 35,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 3
Ki-84r Frank x 55
Ki-100-I Tony x 39

Allied aircraft
P-51D Mustang x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 2 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-51D Mustang: 10 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Kagoshima , at 102,60

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M5 Jack x 3
Ki-84r Frank x 48
Ki-100-I Tony x 35

Allied aircraft
F-6D Mustang x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-84r Frank: 4 destroyed
Ki-100-I Tony: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F-6D Mustang: 7 destroyed

If it wasn´t for two P47 Sweep later in the day it would have been an utter disaster. Luckily only 2 Aces KIA, 2 MIA and WIA. 42 Allied planes lost for 40 Japanese. Ouch. [:(]

------------------------
China
------------------------
Still making good progress here. Found another 100k stack in the middle of nowhere last turn. Very odd place to put 100k troops...[&:]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Japanese forces in Korea[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

------------------------
Confirmed
------------------------
4th Division
6th Division
8th Division
9th Division
10th Division

11th Division
14th Division
19th Division

23rd Division
24th Division
25th Division
29th Division


56th Division
57th Division

89th Division

94th Division
96th Division

105th Division
109th Division

111th Division
112th Division

120th Division
123rd Division
124th Division
125th Division
127th Division
128th Division

150th Division

160th Division

4th Manchukuo Distr Division

1st Tank Division
2nd Tank Division

Total AV:
13200


------------------------
Unconfirmed
------------------------
An estimated 120.000 more troops in various smaller stacks. These will soon converge on the Superstack at Gunzan probably adding another 3-4000 AV. That would bring the total Japanese AV in Korea to somewhere around 15-18k AV.

------------------------
Allied planning
------------------------

Negatives:
Outside a utter and complete collapse of Japanese forces this means there is little chance of an early SU activation due to Japanese AV dropping under 8000 AV.

Total allied AV in Korea right now is around 7000 AV. So about half that of Japanese forces. Probably not enough to make any more progress.

Positives:
This means we will be able to annihilate Japanese force in poorly prepared positions and poor defensive terrain. We can use the SU as a hammer while the Allied forces act the anvil.

This process will be very swift once Soviet forces activate. Advanced armor and mechanized forces should be able to reach Korea in mid September. Troops in the Vladivostok area perhaps even faster.

Moving all those troops most likely burned up whatever supply was left.

Gathering in these superstacks means I have an excellent opportunity to burn any supply that is left by ground bombardments.

One of the superstacks (the Gunzan one) is trying to defend in a clear hex. That is always a bad idea.

True to his MO Erik piles everything on in Superstacks. There will be no reserves available if a breakthrough occurs. Everything is on the front lines and that is confirmed by recon. Only troops in Korea not on the front lines are single units in each base. Most likely a BDE per base to defend against Para drops. There are also some smaller units on the coast. Manchuria is completely empty besides smaller units most likely left behind to keep within Garrison limits.

If I can break Erik at Gunzan its game over. The question is if I can...

------------------------
Allied reserves
------------------------
Allied Army Reserve at Naha (5 US IDs, 3 Tank BTLs).
8th Indian ID (powerful unit) and 3rd OZ ID at Manila.
2800 AV at Hong Kong. These are backed up by most of the Indian/Commonwealth artillery.

I had intended to use the HK forces to open up a new front around Shanghai. But right now I´m tempted to shift at least the artillery to Korea.

I guess the real question is if I gamble on being able to break Erik at Gunzan or not. I know he made a huge strategic blunder here and I want to exploit it so badly. But can I?

[paullus99]

Doesn't this mean that you can start wiping out that AV in place & force an early SU activation?

What am I missing here?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Doesn't this mean that you can start wiping out that AV in place & force an early SU activation?

What am I missing here?

That its 15-18.000 Japanese AV. And for a SU activation I need to destroy probably 10.000 of it using only 7000 Allied AV. [:D]

[ny59giants]

I would bring into Korea any of the larger caliber artillery units (155mm or larger). Do you have any of the American Corp artillery units in theater to use?? Bring in those USMC CD Artillery units with their guns too. It doesn't look like that is a coastal hex to bombard from sea.

[JocMeister]

I´ve decided to hold off most of the reinforcements to Korea until the results from the bombardment next turn are in. I´ve learned to trust my gut when it comes to this game. And my gut tells me Erik has made a tremendous mistake here. I just need to find a way to take advantage of it.

I´m also reluctant to commit my reserve at this stage. Its too early and if I throw my US Theater reserve into Korea I will have no more operational freedom if any kind of opening presents itself. I will do something though. The 8th Indian and 3rd OZ IDs will begin redeployment to Korea. The 8th are an excellent formation. Great TOE, great EXP. I will also pull whatever artillery I can from Asia and the Okinawas and send to Korea. My first goal in Korea will be to burn as much Japanese supply as I possibly can. If nothing else this will speed up Japanese annihilation once the Soviets arrive.

I´ll also try and find out what in the new 100k stack in China. I´m betting just a couple of IDs airlifted from Formosa. If so they won´t pose any threat as the CMA can easily deal with them. Once I know for certain I might lift out the OZ Corps currently at Changsha.

I´ve also decided to deal with that Frank unit currently having a field day at Kagoshima. 300 P47N will sweep the base tomorrow hopefully putting an end to that.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Pilot situation[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________


------------------------
USAAF
------------------------
I have more then enough to see me through the war. In fact I´m in a fantastic shape. The USAAF currently has 1700 fighter pilots in reserve. The WORST one has 62EXP/70Air/70DEF. The majority are between 65 and 75 EXP.

Bomber pilots are slowly increasing. Though training isn´t a thorough as before no one goes to combat under 70 in GRND skill. Currentely have 322 pilots in the reserve.

------------------------
USN/USMC
------------------------
Same situation here. I have around 1000 fighter pilots in both pools. The USN has over 1500 trained bomber pilots. Enough for the rest of the war.

------------------------
British
------------------------
Losing some British CVs and CVEs released a good pool of fantastic fighter pilots. Many over 90EXP after having done CAP duty for years. I have enough here as well to see me through the war.


In general this means I will stop drawing new recruits for training except USAAF bomber pilots. All training squadrons not capable of training USAAF pilots will now shift to fly CAP and increase EXP on pilots already in the pools. In case of the USMC I will need a short training program to bump DEF from 60 to 70 among some 120 pilots. This should take only 2-3 weeks.

------------------------
Top Allied Ace
------------------------
Currently Mr. G.Gibbons of the 347th FG/67th FS flying a P47N with 28 confirmed kills. Currently stationed at Naha in the Okinawas.

[JocMeister]

Okay, this is spectacular! [X(] Nothing I´ve seen before comes even close to this. Can anyone explain these results? And more importantly. Do I order a deliberate attack tomorrow or be patient and continue the bombardments.

Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 120386 troops, 2054 guns, 3726 vehicles, Assault Value = 5708

Defending force 188464 troops, 2343 guns, 1008 vehicles, Assault Value = 7058

Japanese ground losses:
2287 casualties reported [X(]
Squads: 32 destroyed, 70 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 20 (6 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
227 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (15 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Assaulting units:
193rd Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
98th Infantry Division
32nd Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
710th Tank Battalion
31st Infantry Division
38th Infantry Division
711th Tank Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
716th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
77th Infantry Division
96th Infantry Division
5th Marine Division
1st USMC Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
713th Flame Tank Battalion
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
XI US Corps
15th NZ AA Bde
1st Medium Regiment
33rd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
124th Division
49th Engineer Regiment
8th Garrison Unit
1st Tank Division
6th Division
56th Division
43rd Engineer Regiment
70th Infantry Brigade
89th Division
98th Ind.Mixed Brigade
25th Division
125th Division
29th Division
119th Division
14th Ind.Infantry Brigade
10th Division
4th Division
128th Division
24th Division
14th Garrison Unit
41st Infantry Regiment
23rd Division
30th Engineer Regiment
9th Division
91st Infantry Regiment
83rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Tank Division
45th Ind. AA Battalion
12th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
7th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
7th Medium Mortar Battalion
10th RF Gun Battalion
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Special Base Force
46th Air Defense AA Battalion
3rd Rocket Gun Battalion
Kwantung Army
22nd Ind. AA Battalion
94th Field AA Battalion
55th Field AA Battalion
10th Mortar AT Gun Regiment
13th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
81st Field AA Battalion
73rd Field AA Battalion
20th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th RF Gun Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th RF Gun Battalion
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
42nd JNAF AF Unit

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Okay, this is spectacular! [X(] Nothing I´ve seen before comes even close to this. Can anyone explain these results? And more importantly. Do I order a deliberate attack tomorrow or be patient and continue the bombardments.

Ground combat at Gunzan (102,52)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 120386 troops, 2054 guns, 3726 vehicles, Assault Value = 5708

Defending force 188464 troops, 2343 guns, 1008 vehicles, Assault Value = 7058

Japanese ground losses:
2287 casualties reported [X(]
Squads: 32 destroyed, 70 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 20 (6 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
227 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 9 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (15 destroyed, 16 disabled)

Assaulting units:
193rd Tank Battalion
4th Marine Division
2nd USMC Tank Battalion
CenPac Amphib Tank Brigade
98th Infantry Division
32nd Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
762nd Tank Battalion
1st Marine Division
670th Tank Destroyer Battalion
632nd Tank Destroyer Battalion
767th Tank Battalion
710th Tank Battalion
31st Infantry Division
38th Infantry Division
711th Tank Battalion
1st Cavalry (Spec) Cavalry Division
716th Tank Battalion
637th Tank Destroyer Battalion
77th Infantry Division
96th Infantry Division
5th Marine Division
1st USMC Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
671th Tank Destroyer Battalion
706th Tank Battalion
713th Flame Tank Battalion
640th Tank Destroyer Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
766th Tank Battalion
3rd NZ Armoured Sqn
XI US Corps
15th NZ AA Bde
1st Medium Regiment
33rd Medium Regiment

Defending units:
124th Division
49th Engineer Regiment
8th Garrison Unit
1st Tank Division
6th Division
56th Division
43rd Engineer Regiment
70th Infantry Brigade
89th Division
98th Ind.Mixed Brigade
25th Division
125th Division
29th Division
119th Division
14th Ind.Infantry Brigade
10th Division
4th Division
128th Division
24th Division
14th Garrison Unit
41st Infantry Regiment
23rd Division
30th Engineer Regiment
9th Division
91st Infantry Regiment
83rd Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Tank Division
45th Ind. AA Battalion
12th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
7th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
7th Medium Mortar Battalion
10th RF Gun Battalion
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
17th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Special Base Force
46th Air Defense AA Battalion
3rd Rocket Gun Battalion
Kwantung Army
22nd Ind. AA Battalion
94th Field AA Battalion
55th Field AA Battalion
10th Mortar AT Gun Regiment
13th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
81st Field AA Battalion
73rd Field AA Battalion
20th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th RF Gun Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
11th RF Gun Battalion
11th Ind.Hvy.Art Battalion
42nd JNAF AF Unit

I see 4 dedicated AT units there - the "RF Gun Battalion" units are AT guns. I want to say 18 or 24 or 36 each (can't check at the moment). Otherwise, he has very little AT there and you have a crapload of tanks. He does have some of the really big arty units there (Botanko has 30cm howitzers IIRC).

With that level of casualties, I think I'd probably order an attack in your position, so long as I've got the supply to spare and I would bombard from the air during the day.

I'm aggressive, though [;)].

[JocMeister]

I´m itching to pull the trigger to be honest...and I have half a million supply in Korea so that won´t be an issue. Those 30cm howitzers doesn´t seem to be firing or I would take a beating obviously. Out of supply?

[witpqs]

I'm reading both sides currently, so no advice. You asked to explain the level of casualties: my first guess would be low forts, but that is purely a guess.

[JocMeister]

How about the low level of allied losses? No forts and he actually have more (and obviously bigger) guns then me. Supply limiting counter battery fire?