Guns on the East Front! v3.3 Telumar vs Governato

[Telumar]

The battle for Rostov IV

For above reasons and with winter approaching i decided to withdraw behind the Don and to prepare for winter. The first battle for Rostov was an Axis defeat.
This pretty much marked the end of offensive operations in Army Group South's sector. There was still some fighting in the Don bend, but this also ceased in the following turns and i began preparing for the winter.

Here the retreat from Rostov on turn 21:

[governato]

And Rostov is NOT a supply point so the clock was ticking for the Red Rebels of Rostov... oh wait that was another (later) siege .
[edit] I am glad that Rostov was the high mark of the Axis adavance. Historically it was very similar, the city was stormed by a regiment sized unit, and then abandoned before the mud season (or was it blizzard?) due to mounting Soviet pressure.

[Telumar]

The situation at the beginning of winter '41/'42:

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: governato

And Rostov is NOT a supply point so the clock was ticking for the Red Rebels of Rostov... oh wait that was another (later) siege .
[edit] I am glad that Rostov was the high mark of the Axis adavance. Historically it was very similar, the city was stormed by a regiment sized unit, and then abandoned before the mud season (or was it blizzard?) due to mounting Soviet pressure.

At the end of November it was.

In retrospect i think one more rested German Korps or one of PzGruppe 1's Korps could have brought a decision. But everyone was down to the cherry red and there was increasing Soviet (counter)pressure in 1st Panzergruppe's sector so i could spare noone.

[Telumar]

And an overview of the entire front at the beginning of winter (turn 24):



EDIT: Yes, insufficiently held sectors. Either too few troops or the state of the units was 'worrysome'.

[Telumar]

Now for some statistics. Axis tank strength from June - November 41.

Tank strength means number of vehicles in the units on the map. These include also Axis minor tanks and tankdestroyers. Note that the scenario has a 'sink unit' which drains equipment pieces from the pool to simulate attritional losses as well as vehicles that were outdated and retrofitted or converted to other weapon platforms. I've added these to the losses and subtracted them from the tank strength value. Also note that the strength chart does not take into regard unit readiness (this for TOAW newbies if they stumble across this AAR) and is thus only partially an indicator for combat strength.

[Telumar]

Let's continue with infantry statistics. This shows the total Axis infantry strength including Pioneers (excluding construction, bridging and rail repair) and Reconnaissance and AT teams:

[Telumar]

The backbone of the Axis army - German heavy infantry squads:

[Telumar]

Total losses (accumulative):

[Telumar]

And infantry losses per turn:

[Telumar]

And the Luftwaffe from turn 1 - 24. While total production surpasses the total losses, the German bomber force has suffered a substantial decline in strength. The German 'Jagdwaffe' (fighter force) however could replace its losses and has a well bolstered pool of Me-109s.

[Cfant]

Telumar, really good to hear from you again! Hope everthing is well
Thanks for this informative AAR, I'm playing against Governato myself at the moment. Had a good start, but my strategy for '41 was a failure at least. After my two games of EF I have the impression, that the Soviets can overhelm the germans by their amount of counters. It forces the Axis to thin out their lines, which costs the offensive power. So I tried to kill counters more then to gain land. I fear, I could not reduce the Red Army enough, though... Maybe Governato will post some losses himself


We're on turn 20, I'm in panic of the winter offensive already Eager to see how it turns out in your game. Good luck, Sir!

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: Cfant2

Telumar, really good to hear from you again! Hope everthing is well
Thanks for this informative AAR, I'm playing against Governato myself at the moment. Had a good start, but my strategy for '41 was a failure at least. After my two games of EF I have the impression, that the Soviets can overhelm the germans by their amount of counters. It forces the Axis to thin out their lines, which costs the offensive power. So I tried to kill counters more then to gain land. I fear, I could not reduce the Red Army enough, though... Maybe Governato will post some losses himself


We're on turn 20, I'm in panic of the winter offensive already Eager to see how it turns out in your game. Good luck, Sir!

Welcome to the Eastern Front dear Sir! I had to cut down my TOAW committment due to RL isses (new job, family etc). But a little TOAW a day keeps the doctor away..

It is - as also emphasized by Barbarossa planers - important to destroy the Red Army in '41. This must be done in Kessels, when the Soviets are out of supply so that their losses are total. This maybe is more important than to get a city one or two turns earlier. So your strategy is sound i might think.. as long as you destroy the Soviets when they're out of supply.

Have you tried Leningrad? I always get it when i'm playing the Axis.

I hope that Fabio will post something about his winteroffensive. Currently we're in May '42. And it's a hot May.

[governato]

ORIGINAL: Cfant2

After my two games of EF I have the impression, that the Soviets can overwhelm the germans by their amount of counters.

Amount of AWESOME Cfant, awesome. Not counters!

OK, the Red Army has the ability to reform a lot of units, which is historical, remember all those German tales of 'we surrounded ten divisions and the next week twenty new ones showed up'... so going after the light red units is sound (meaning you go after the logistical/cadre structure of the Red Army). Pocketing HQs and destroying support squads would have helped as well. Will see how it goes comes Winter.

But back to THIS East Front...I will post my Winter report soon. And yes I confirm May is red hot in South Ukraine...the Heer does indeed come back strong.

[Cfant]

@Telumar: Yes, I got Leningrad. THe Soviets defended Volkohv so much, that Leningrad was less strong, so I could take it directly :)My position is not too bad at all, just not what I wanted it to be Maybe I'll post a few pics after the winter offensive, but I might be too depressed to do so afterwards

Well, I'm always in discussion with Governato, that the winter offensive is too strong. Therefore I can't wait to see the reports of you two about your turns 24-30 [:D]

One more question, Telumar: How close would you say has been the battle of Rostov? I called off the attack quite soon, as without good supply it's a slaughter. Would like to know if you say, you had a real chance to take this crucial city. At least you had it sieged, but well. Romanians. [:'(]

One more point: With Leningrad in Axis hands, I'd say Hanko in Finland should no longer have a supply point

[governato]

ORIGINAL: Cfant2
One more point: With Leningrad in Axis hands, I'd say Hanko in Finland should no longer have a supply point

Yes. And I can probably squeeze an event to do just that. Hango is usually taken during the first high shock turns, so this was not problem that emerged before. Yay for testing.

Trailer of coming attractions: I am happy with the current blizzard, Telumar prepared earlier/better than historical and the Red Army was not able to make strategic gains.
More than the Red Army, it is what the Wehrmacht does that affects the outcome of blizzard. Overstretching supply lines and not digging was what caused problems historically. But the chance of getting Moscow was just too tempting.

[Edit] One can follow a previous game of EF Cfant vs Amman in THIS thread. Cfant was playing the Axis and after a strong Summer of 1941 won a strategic victory in mid '43.

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: Cfant2

@Telumar: Yes, I got Leningrad. THe Soviets defended Volkohv so much, that Leningrad was less strong, so I could take it directly :)My position is not too bad at all, just not what I wanted it to be Maybe I'll post a few pics after the winter offensive, but I might be too depressed to do so afterwards

Well, I'm always in discussion with Governato, that the winter offensive is too strong. Therefore I can't wait to see the reports of you two about your turns 24-30 [:D]

One more question, Telumar: How close would you say has been the battle of Rostov? I called off the attack quite soon, as without good supply it's a slaughter. Would like to know if you say, you had a real chance to take this crucial city. At least you had it sieged, but well. Romanians. [:'(]

One more point: With Leningrad in Axis hands, I'd say Hanko in Finland should no longer have a supply point

Yes Rostov.. i could have taken it if i had planned better. Well, then that's the usual pretext... It's probably more a matter of time, if i had reached it earlier i might have succeeded. Well, and one additional German Korps. Had i been able to isolate the city before the mud, the defenders would have been ripe for attack after the mud. So, a close thing, one or two turns earlier and it could have worked.
One reason for my withdrawal, not the only one, but still a valid one, was the onset of winter respectively the need to prepare for winter.. that is: to fortify. Which takes time, too. Also i wanted to minimize losses - probably i would have gotten it in a three or four sided attack when the city was under siege, but i would have bleeded bitterly.

Meanwhile, as of May, the area has again become the scene of major battles..

[governato]

the blizzard is always an interesting moment in the game. both sides are low on supply and equipment. the soviet production is at its lowest, with only about a thousand modern tanks left. but when is the axis supposed to take the pedal off the gas and start preparing for winter? moscow is usually close and a tempting objective, and so is rostov. in this game telumar got leningrad just before mud, but at the same time a strong effort to isolate rostov was repelled as the rain season started. we both felt the bite of the 'just one less/more turn', which made the game particularly exciting.

penalties/bonuses for blizzard are not as extensive as in other scenarios, but the are still significant: axis shock is at 70% for four turns, red army at 110% (air forces are both at 70%)*. the biggest risk for the axis is a formation going into reorganization, as this event can lead to deadly pockets. the axis player should always keep in mind the great risk of keeping units in exposed positions as he may not be able to withdraw them when needed.


telumar approached the blizzard like the cold, seasoned grognard he is : he slowed down during mud, left most forces at the front and started digging taking great care of placing units in good terrain and with railway supply nearby. i suspect that his supply units were also place correctly (just a few hexes away form the rail heads) and that his hqs had lost very few supply squads during the offensive phase.

note:losing support squads (representing staff and logistic resources) is one of the worst mistakes the axis player can make, as they are very slowly replaced. the red army suffers from the same problem, but support squads get replaced faster.


images and outcomes for the various front sectors in the next posts.


*designer's note: personally i dislike shocks events as an artificial way to simulate what should be better done with supply and weather events and reduced recon levels, but to a certain level shocks are good to simulate breakdowns in command & communications and strategic surprise, so they are useful in 1941. after blizzard any further shock effects for both sides (summer offensive for the axis in 42/42 and for the red army in 44) are small (5%) and come with long term penalties for supplies.

[governato]

agn sector: my mistake in managing leningrad left too many units trapped inside the city. here telumar will be safe, as i did not plan for any major operation here.

agc/western and kalinin fronts sector: the wehrmacht was tired and in a weaker position, but the hilly/forested ground allowed his units to get to `f' status quickly. i tried some frontal attacks during the early blizzard turns, resembling the historical battle around rhzev but got nowhere...horrific infantry losses 10:1 without really denting his positions, an historical meat grinder. the lack of heavy artillery was crucial and the enemy was definitely better prepared than in the historical case. on the other hand the front lines are far from moscow and unless a major reverse of fortune happens in summer 42 this sector of the front should be ok.

ags/southwest and bryansk fronts : the only major red army offensive, involves the bryansk and sw fronts, together with some surviving mechanized corps (an abstraction for the many independent tank brigades formed by the red army in this period). the goal is to retake the railway line from kursk to vorhonez, improve communications between fronts and deny the enemy a strong staging area aimed at tula and possibly moscow. the operation succeeds with relatively small losses, but further exploitation is impossible. the image shows the lines at the start of the winter offensive and the staging areas for the explotation forces. i noticed that telumar and i make extensive use of reserves.

[governato]

the image shows the front at the end of the offensive, with the regained rail junction. this is a crucial defensive position to hold as the rail line headed NE is a major headache if owned by the Axis: it allows the enemy to move supply and forces south of Moscow, protected my the Oka river on its left flank and in open tank country. i expect more fighting here comes spring.

further south the enemy digs in, and so does the red army, with the hopes of maintaining a bridgehead west of the Don comes Spring and
keeping rostov and the crimea secure. my mechanized forces are withdrawn and concentrated along the main rail junctions. i plan to use them as firebrigades once the axis is back. overall, the blizzard period is much less dramatic than the historical one, with small operational gains by the red army. however, the red amy oob is significantly stronger by february.

red army forces december 1st 1941/t23

1550 modern medium tanks (kv1+t34s)

2300 planes (modern frames)

22000 guns (above 50mm, excluding at and aa guns)

red army forces t32 (late february 1942)

2850 modern tanks

2550 planes

36000 guns

as a result the axis will likely be able to start a strong offensive in summer 42, most likely towards the caucasus and probably earlier than historical, but the red army will be relatively ready for it. i do not hold hopes to stop the axis from achieving an operational breakthrough, but i hope to inflict the enemy strong losses from which it will not recover.