Guns on the East Front! v3.3 Telumar vs Governato

[governato]

Telumar and I have started this game earlier this year. It has been great so far, with a lot of useful, in depth discussions on scenario design. As there are already a couple AARs on 'EF', we will try to give this one a fresh look, with some comments on design, some playing suggestions and a comparison with historical outcomes. The AAR is open to both sides, with a 'I planned/he planned/..and then this happened format. We are playing with Opart 3XBb, which combines both unofficial fixes to the AA and the RFC bug. (post 84 of the thread)


For those not familiar with 'East Front 41-45', the scenario covers the whole Russian Front from the opening of Barbarossa, to Summer 1945 at the Korps/Army level. 200 turns and change, about 30 minutes per move. It was designed to avoid endless unit pushing and encourage strategic thinking and long term planning, as expected at the Army/Front level.

But do not be fooled by the apparent simplicity of EF. A lot of research went on the OOB, which is complete down to the battalion/brigade level, as these smaller units are attached to Korps and Armies. The TOE of each unit in the game reflects the evolution of each forces, with frequent withdrawals and upgrades. Production follows not just the historical total number, but the rate of production for each main weapon, through an extensive use of disbandments. The equipment file was updated to allow for better aircraft ranges and for Infantry squads specific for each nation. The players also have some modest ability (at the 10-20%) level) to change the production of their forces over the course of the war. Special events gently encourage historical behavior in the critical first Summer (namely a forward defense for the Red Army, and a prolonged offensive till late Fall for the Axis).

The version used in this AAR (v3.3) was released in December 2013 to address some issues that had been identified from players' feedback from previous games (for which I am very grateful, playing this game to the end takes about one calendar year). Specifically insufficient tank losses (TOAW does not account for breakdowns and wear and tear of AFVs) and a certain overpowering of the Red Army in later years.

If you want to give it a try the scenario is here, and I have just posted v3.4 which adds a few more improvements. As usual, feedback is welcome and encouraged.

The animation, as a little trailer of our game, shows the first 24 turns, from June 22nd to December 1st 1941.

[governato]

Sadly Telumar seems to have had problems, I have not heard from him in a while and the game is on hold.

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: governato


Sadly Telumar seems to have had problems, I have not heard from him in a while and the game is on hold.

Not anymore.[:)] We've continued our game after a break and are currently in spring '42. Time for examining the opening - Operation Barbarossa.

[Telumar]

Attached is the overview map - turn 1. The Axis player gets a Sudden Death victory "if he holds Leningrad, Moscow, Rostov and
one of Grozny, Stalingrad or Murmansk at any time in 1941".

Experiences from earlier matches teached me the follwing:

- Leningrad can be taken
- Murmansk will be very difficult, and even if so the losses will be immense
- Moscow can be taken, depending on the skill of the opponent(s) (no illusions here about Fabio's skills however..)
- Rostov can be done
- Stalingrad - too far; Grozny - out of reach.

Thus i think a Sudden Death victory in '41 is out of question except Fabio performs below expectations. This means most probably we're in for a long run as was historically the case which again means i will have to be careful about losses.

For the Army Groups i've set the following objectives:

Army Group North: Take Leningrad (-10% Soviet replacements, Soviet rail capacity cut to 8,000)
Army Group Center: Advance as close to Moscow as possible (i do not expect to take it)
Army Group South: Take Rostov (as the gate to the Caucasus), get as close to Stalingrad / the Wolga as possible

[Telumar]

I will cut down the Barbarossa AAR into separate sections for each Army Group, showing only the most significant events.

Let's start with Army Group North. On turn 2, Riga fell and elements of Pz.Gruppe 4 were already heading into Latvia. The railhead had reached Kaunas (which btw is roughly historical). I expected Fabio to put up a front behind the Luga river, maybe a defense of Pskov to buy some time for the MLR to entrench (entrenching takes a long time in EF). Also note the hex supply values around my spearheads.

[Telumar]

Turn 5 in Army Group North's sector - the Army Group has encountered the first organised resistance since the fall of Riga. Unexpectedly Fabio chose not to defend behind the Luga, but on the Oranienbaum - Novgorod line, which is 2 hexes shorter, but also 2 hexes closer to Leningrad. The railhead is way behind historical schedule, resupply is almost non-existent as can be seen from the hex supply values in the screenshot. Nevertheless the Soviet front needed to be pierced asap before he achieves fortification levels of E or F. The next objective will be to isolate Leningrad and cut off the city's supply via Lake Ladoga at Volkhov.

[Telumar]

Five weeks later, in late August, Army Group north was able to isolate the city from the main front. Still Volkhov, meanwhile fortified, needed to be taken before any serious attempt to attack Leningrad itself. In the meantime the railhead had reached Pskov, still behind historical schedule.

[Telumar]

This task took another seven weeks (!) of fierce fighting before Volkhov finally fell mid October, right at the onset of the Rasputitsa season.

[Telumar]

Leningrad fell - easier than expected - in the second week of November (turn 21) when German infantry attacking from the east forced their way into the city centre. Note the Soviet buildup at Tikhvin.

[Telumar]

This is showing the situation in Army Group North's sector on turn 24. Winter is setting in and the entire Army Group has gone over to the defence. In the meantime Finish forces have been advancing towards the river Swir.




**************************************

I'll pause before i go over to the events that occured in Army Group Center's sector to give Fabio a chance to post his view of things. I believe that had Fabio defended behind the river Luga instead at the Oranienbaum - Nowgorod line he could have bought an additional two or three turns that could have saved the city. Maybe he didn't have enough units at the time? I was not willing to uphold a siege against a supplied Leningrad and at the same time defend against whatever comes from the east during the 'blizzard'. Had i not been able to cut supply to the city in time (whatever that means..) i would most probably have given up the siege and withdrawn to my own Oranienbaum - Novgorod line.

[governato]

Summer of 41

I approached the Summer with the ultimate goal of preserving as much of the Red Army as possible without triggering the Soviet Sudden Death conditions from losing Kiev and other main cities too early (note: in v3.4 Moscow is a 25% sudden death conditions until turn 24). I am ready to sacrifice space and some early production to avoid losing too many units, but keeping Moscow (industry, reinforcement and transportation hub) safe at all costs.

The crucial period is turns 6-12, when if the Red Army loses too many units it won't have enough to man the front before the late Summer wave of army cadres arrives. One approach I have adopted in this game is to split many Red Army units in two/three components. The proficiency penalty is compensated by the better coverage of the frontline as an entrenched corp sized infantry unit stands a good chance to withstand a hasty attack by the panzerwaffe. My plan was to hold the Dnepr and the Crimea until Kiev falls, and eventually withdraw back to Smolensk - Bryansk - Rostov while preparing the real defense line closer to Moscow. In the North, I was ready to let Leningrad be isolated and hoping to retake control of the area during blizzard. To achieve this I had a bold new plan that had not been attempted before...

The attached image shows the amount of infantry squads that the Red Army have during the first 30 turns. One can really see how OKH must be aggressive and destroy as much of the Red Army logistic structure (unit counters in game parlay) as four million men are drafted into the army. It's a tide that never stops. The big dip just before December 41? The Fall of Leningrad. How it happened is the topic of the next post.

[governato]

Leningrad falls.

After the Baltic states are overrun, the first obvious defence line is at Pskov, where one can give a bloody nose at some overstretched Panzer unit. Telumar was too smart for that and the cost is usually one or more Red Army corps being trapped. Then the Luga river is usually where the Red Army makes a stand. The problem is that line is easy to pierce and once broken it's a retreat to Leningrad itself, with the risk of having an army or two trapped against the sea or worse to have a lot of 'evap' events with tired, low proficiency units. It rarely works.

The city itself is (in theory) hard to take. Dense urban, a super river to attack from and the Oranienbaum area that has permanent fortifications. Leningrad has a permanent supply point (if at 10%) as long as the city of Volkhov remains in Soviet hands. This represents the historical lake supply route that sustained Leningrad through its siege. It's a great feature of TOAW. One can also ship in forces if needed (note: Sevastopol has a similar supply point as long as Novorossyk (sp?) remains in Soviet control). So my plan is to leave a strong garrison in Leningrad and retreat in order to the line East of the Volkhov river, from Lake Ilmen, through Novgorod and to Volkhov itself. See it as a door with a hinge in Novgorod that opens at Oranienbaum and closes on Volkhov. I will reopen it when the blizzard comes and establish a land line to Leningrad!

It almost worked. I left the equivalent of three armies inside the city, including one strong army from the Leningrad Front. They were all in fortified status by the time the Nazi Hordes surrounded the city on August 24th (a week earlier than historical see HERE. As Telumar mentioned, he did not try to take city directly and pushed East. Smart move, as Volkhov fell on turn 17, dooming Leningrad to starvation. Just one turn more and mud (which arrives on turn 19) would have stopped operations and probably saved the city, at least in 1941. Telumar waited a few weeks for the defenders to starve and took the city just before the onset of Winter. Close, but no cigar for the Red Army. OKH bags almost 10k squads.


Telumar and I have talked a bit, wondering why Leningrad almost always falls. This is true in EF, but also in Matrix's WITE. This is interesting and different from the historical outcome where the Soviet ports East of Leningrad were never taken, allowing the city to survive, if barely. Is the terrain map around Leningrad too easy in EF? I added a few swamp hexes in v3.4 and it still fell (in my game with Cfant).. What I think happened historically was that more supplies were diverted from AGN to support AGC's effort and probably one or two extra armies equivalents (a dozen divisions) were assigned to the Leningrad and NW fronts, helping stabilizing the front at Volkhov. In fact in most EF games the Axis rarely takes Moscow or even gets as close as historical to the Kremlin (just one hex away in game terms!) Will see how Telumar
describes the operations in AGC sector, but in retrospective I think I should have sent some forces North instead of being overly worried about Moscow....but it is a fine balancing acts that I did not have the guts to attempt.

[Telumar]

ORIGINAL: governato
One approach I have adopted in this game is to split many Red Army units in two/three components. The proficiency penalty is compensated by the better coverage of the frontline as an entrenched corp sized infantry unit stands a good chance to withstand a hasty attack by the panzerwaffe.

This is also a necessity for the Axis when they drive deeper into Russia and the front to cover gets always broader.

ORIGINAL: governato
In the North, I was ready to let Leningrad be isolated and hoping to retake control of the area during blizzard. To achieve this I had a bold new plan that had not been attempted before...

Too bold.. but it was a close thing and not an easy task. As i wrote, the objective was to take the city, i had no desire to uphold a siege during winter, especially as i saw your build-up east of the Wolchow river. Also, a supplied Leningrad i would have never attacked, so taking Volkhov was crucial. And Volhov needed to be taken in time, meaning that the city defenders should starve a few turns before the decisive attack would be launched (this to minimize own losses). In retrospect i think you could have sent an additional one or two units from the Vyazma / Moscow front without endangering your position there. This could have tipped the balance at Leningrad / Volkhov.

ORIGINAL: governato

Posting this is psychological warfare

[Telumar]

Now let's switch to Army Group Center. We dive right into turn 2 - a fantastic start i would say. After crushing the border defences and eliminating the bulk of Western Front, Minsk has been isolated on turn 2 with Panzergruppe 3 racing towards Smolensk against no resistance. Note that resupply is almost non-existent for the spearheads, a problem that will plague the Army Group throughout the entire Summer-Fall campaign.

[Telumar]

Turn 4, the second week of July. The bulk of the Army Group has reached the new Soviet front. Elements of Panzergruppe 3 have already crossed the Desna river east of Mogilev. At this point, due to resupply issues, i had two motorized Korps and one Panzer-Division resting in Minsk.

[Telumar]

On turn 5 Smolensk fell in a direct attack and Witebsk had been isolated with one Rifle Corps cut off, but the Soviet line covering the Minsk - Smolensk highway was not compromised. However its flanks, especially the southern one, were wide open. Usually a call for exploitation, but at that time, maybe being over-aware of own losses, i decided that at least a part of my motorized and armored forces needed an operational pause for resupply. Sending them into battle with green health later would have a more decisive impact on future operations. I thought. Also an exploitation on the southern flank (with the intention to drive behind Fabio's line along the highway) would be further hindered by bad terrain that would slown down my speed. Instead i opted for a drive to Bryansk with a force of roughly one Panzergruppe as the spearhead and with leaving mainly Infantry to battle along the highway. In retrospect i think this was a blunder. Had i had the forces which were resting at Minsk on the front instead, i maybe could have made good ground towards Moscow with maybe inflicting critical losses upon the Red Army.

[Telumar]

As it turned out, the drive to Bryansk took another four weeks until the city fell in the second half of August. The absence of pressure during these turns (roughly turns 6 to 8) except along the Smolensk - Bryansk axis gave Fabio enough time to consolidate in a half-circle around Vyazma, while only delaying in front of Bryansk. On turn 8 i decided to let loose the units that had been resting around Minsk. All in all, the events and decisions after the fall of Smolensk achieved the worst of both worlds.. not only did i allow Fabio to consolidate, but also most of my armored and mechanized forces had too few turns to resupply sufficiently and so they entered the battle still worn-down.

The plan was now a two pincer drive against his central front. This should force him to retreat further - and no retreat goes without losses - and (but i doubted that) ideally form a Kessel.

Turn 9:

[Telumar]

From then on, though the screenshot from turn 9 might not look so bad, it was a rather tactical battle. Fabio had enough strength and a continous flow of reinforcements to always counterattack any incursions or advances on either flank while managing a slow, ordered retreat in the center. As attrition is no game the Axis should play i finally accepted the stalemate and ceased further offensive operations on turn 15. Two turns later the mud set in.

[Telumar]

After the mud the Army Group needed to resupply and fortify a line for the upcoming winter. At least i wanted to prevent any desaster during the blizzard and a possible Soviet counteroffensive in the winter. This is the situation on turn 24:




One could say that Army Group Center failed to inflict serious or decisive losses to the Red Army, especially after the fall of Smolensk. However, the Army Group is itself in a better deployment and strength than its historical counterpart, but then that can be said of the Red Army too.

[ogar]

Nice to see this detailed and educational AAR continuing.