Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (Allies) vs Seminole (Axis)

[Seminole]

A look in on Axis production and pools:

[Seminole]

FB groups:



LB groups:



TB and PA groups:

[Seminole]

1/18th LW is still bobbing in the harbor and we send them back without unloading. Nervous about port capacity, and not being able to maintain a rout route for these guys with nowhere to place them onshore but the city I need for evacuation flights.
They survive the trip without incident.
1/19th LW Rgt also makes the dangerous voyage back to Italy without incident.

95th Sec Rgt has already been punted off island by attackers.

192nd Sec Rgt load cost 147 has been flown to Grossoto
3/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2867 transported from Ajaccio to Porto Vecchio
All aircraft losses in this mission due to flak
2/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2266 holding
4th FJ Div load cost 6604 holding Bastia
1/2nd FJ Rgt transport cost 2363 holding Calvi
1/1st FJ Rgt transport cost 3250 holding mountains by Calvi

Go 244s moved from SW France to Grossoto in order to help air lift. Hope allied bombing moves to a new target next week...

[Seminole]

Sicily
Monty’s 8th Army is still slogging toward Messina, with XIII and XXX Corps.
Brits hit the German right wing and forced a retreat.
Schmalz Bde is bolstering two Italian infantry divisions, but they fold under the pressure and Hube orders a retreat that ends up costly in AFVs.
Attackers include
3rd BR Inf Div
49th BR Inf Div
50th BR Inf Div
30th BR Arm Bde
33rd BR Tank Bde
Inns of Court BR Arm Car Rgt
1st King’s Dragoon Gds BR Arm Car Rgt



Brits hit hard against the German right wing with:
5th BR Inf Div
46th BR Inf Div
49th BR Inf Div
56th BR Inf Div
78th BR Inf Div
4th BR Arm Bde
8th BR Arm Bde
33rd BR Arm Bde
7th BR Arm Div
12th Lancers BR Arm Car Rgt
1st King’s Dragoon Gds BR Arm Car Rgt

H. Goering Pzr Div and the 3/15th PzG Rgt are accompanied by the 13th ‘Re’ IT Inf Div.
They hold against 3 separate attacks, but fortifications are degraded.
3/15th PzG Rgt is ordered to withdraw to to the mainland while Italian Inf Divs move to Sicily and Schmalz Bde and H. Goering Pzr Div try to hold the last two hexes of Sicily. Next week we pull back to Messina and force him to dig us out under the cover of all flak concentrated on the Straits.

[EwaldvonKleist]

You are doing mich better than the Germans historically did. With the extra time you had to fortify and reinforce the Italian mainland, this should snowball. The deteriorating weather won't help the Allies either.

[loki100]

the Allied player shouldn't go for Corsica before the Italian mainland, in part it really strains the air assets to protect so far north and in part the rewards are mismatched.

yes, you need Corsica for the landings aimed at Rome but they are not feasible till later in 1943. Hit the mainland with that force he has in Corsica and Italy is out of the war and the Axis needs to bail out everything to the south of the target - even just repeating the historical Anzio or down in the toe (again staying safely inside air range)

[Seminole]

The island defenses present additional challenges the historical Allied command didn’t face.
Kent had the advantage of a prior match, and thus suspected my island defense at the outset and planned/acted accordingly.

In a usual match the Allied player doesn’t realize that major operations to capture Sardinia and Corsica will be required. When the Italians generally surrender, mid-August to early September when Messina falls (depending on German commitment to S. Italy), the Allied player has his first clue something is afoot when the Italians on the islands are silently disarmed and disbanded by co-located German security or para regiments.

Then existing plans must be re-examined and slotting of the Sardinia and Corsican invasion can take place.

I’m not quite sure how I would approach the island defense I present if I were the Allies.
My inclination is to refuse the bait, and focus elsewhere, preventing the Axis from seizing initiative and directing Allied focus at their whim.

I do not like a Salerno or even really Anzio landing site. Geographically too constrained. More gift to the defender than leverage to the invader.

[Seminole]

Turn 14
October 2, 1943

Forgot to get a weather report.

The Allies did try to keep up the airfield attacks at Grosseto, but fortunately to little or no effect:

[Seminole]

We’ve lost the battle for Porto Vecchio. This was a surprise, I didn’t expect he’d have the requisite combat power yet, but I suspect isolation effects took their toll.

We also lost our battle in the mountains. This too was a surprise, likely also due to isolation effects in combat upon review of the battle logs. Unlike Italy and Sardinia, forts on Corsica all cost 4 AP, so not likely to make the expenditure.

This means we’re down to two cities, and the port of Calvi is in the most danger. I believe we can exfil these troops, and hopefully hold out one more week in Bastia before we pull out.

He has made the mistake of placing a TF adjacent to the port of Bastia. He could have effectively isolated the port one hex away, but maybe he also wants to force the attrition ashore that his naval batteries can provide.
The risk is that he will suffer fire from the port guns, and we are going to bring every asset in the Italian air force and the Luftwaffe to bear on this TF.

Battle of Corsica:

[Seminole]

With 3 different Fallschirmjaeger regiments surrendering Germany's highest leadership loses faith in the mission and orders an immediate withdrawal of remaining forces on the island.



This effort is executed flawlessly for once, and while we had initially confirmed sufficient lift to remove all remaining forces, a decision was made to leave the 196th Sec Rgt behind in Bastia manning the port guns. Hopefully one more phase of attrition, and compelling the attacks on the port to delay it's repair as an Allied port, are worth the trade off of a security regiment that can be reconstituted and put back on garrison, rear guard duty in a few weeks.

[Seminole]

The 8th Army hits H.G. Pzr Div until they compel a withdrawal.



The city of Messina holds under a pair of attacks.

[Seminole]

A check on the relative success of the German efforts in the Italian theater so far.
Blaskowitz has done his best with the hand he was dealt, managing 5-3 victory ratio.
Hube boasts a 9-1 victory in his efforts to frustrate 8th Army.



Ground losses



Overall unit level detail of Italian theater at the end of turn 14:

[EwaldvonKleist]

To what extent is a landing North of Rome or even Livorno possible as the first landing? Considering that he is behind schedule and that most of your strong units are in South Italy, couldn't such a landing force a quick retreat?

Meanwhile the ghost of Napoleon watches the battles from Elba.

Btw. could you maybe show CV instead of unit names in your screenshots?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

To what extent is a landing North of Rome or even Livorno possible as the first landing? Considering that he is behind schedule and that most of your strong units are in South Italy, couldn't such a landing force a quick retreat?

Meanwhile the ghost of Napoleon watches the battles from Elba.

Btw. could you maybe show CV instead of unit names in your screenshots?

not, he'd get slaughtered (assuming the LW is well used), both sides should chuck everything in as its a chance to define who 'wins' in Italy (ie when does Rome fall), the calculation is air units*air miles, if the Allies have to use too many miles simply getting there then they can actually be driven off. I've had two brutal air battles in that region (both sides) and both came down to fine margins, with the Allies relatively well set up in the first case.

even going in around Lake Bolsena can be a reach too far

but I do think the Allied player should have gone for a landing somewhere at the top of the toe or around Taranto, either resolve S Italy in their favour, push Italy out of the war and give them the bases for a second set of landings further north (ie Rome)

[EwaldvonKleist]

But he could base the Aircorce on Corsica and Sardinia?
For clarity, "first landing"=first mainland landing", I should have been more clear.

[Seminole]

I alway took the unit name screenshots for AAR purposes, but do have some CV shots as well. I’ll include in the future when I have them.
Trying to reduce my pics per post so I don’t overload each page, so each turn will get several posts.

In my own analysis from either side, I look upon The Heel as where the Allies should come ashore first in Italy if they expect opposition.
The terrain and rail layout are favorable for beachhead defense and temporary depot placement, also allowing effective ground support.
You also can quickly obtain a large number of size 2 airfields, in addition to those your landings create, and bring thus forward LBs to support operations.

I think the Axis could try to stymy the Allies here, but it would give the Allies advantages like fighters flying at short range from all the available airfields, and if done early enough you have weather in S Italy still working in the Allies favor.

[Seminole]

Turn 15
October 9, 1943

Weather report:



244th and 245th Inf Div are raised and moved to the Netherlands with the 65th Inf Div in prep for the withdrawal of two infantry divisions next month to the Eastern Front.



Allies succeed in forcing Germans out of Messina.



Corsica also falls with the surrender at Bastia
The island campaign is complete.

[Seminole]

Unit level detail for formations in the Italian theater, including N. Italy.

Still no Italian surrender. If my estimates are correct, the Germans have 198 garrison CV in Italy not within 10 hexes of an Allied unit.

In all conditions, when the surrender check is made, if random(200)>garrison value, Italy surrenders.

[Seminole]

Turn 16
October 16, 1943

Rain keeps the Allies grounded.



Recon shows lots of Allied units still on Corsica.



Monty tries and fails to get over the Straits with a Task Force assisted crossing.



50th BR Inf Div listed as destroyed, several formations routed in the failed assault.

[Seminole]

Italians are still in the fight.

Allies suffer a turn of lopsided losses for a change:



Air war is quiet this week:



Build Atlantic Wall forts in Dieppe, Etaples, and Bruges ports.



Garrisons are well above need in preparation for redeployment East by several divisions.