Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (Allies) vs Seminole (Axis)

[Seminole]

Kent agreed to a rematch after our first attempt at a '43 Grand Campaign ended early.
This time there will be no EF box.


The Germans intend to contest the Allied efforts with their utmost, and my goal at the outset is to keep Anglo forces from stepping foot in the Reich.

Weather at the outset of the campaign favors the Allies:



The Allies open with heavy bombing in N Europe and a three landing site invasion of Sicily.



Losses are fierce on both sides, and the Germans decide to pull their fighters from France and the Low Countries to avoid quick attrition to UK based Allied fighters.

Allies manage 117 airfield attacks, losing 55 bombers and 24 fighters while only killing 1 bomber and 8 fighters on the ground.
I suspect these airfield attacks suffered mainly from lack of concurrent recon. I also try to avoid bombing airfields that are not on clear terrain. On balance, this probably isn't the most effective use of Allied air power at this juncture. I would scout for and try to neutralize Axis LB concentrations early in the campaign as the Allies to help keep control of the sea lanes.




Night Fighters are also re-based to try and better protect the Ruhr from British efforts.

[Seminole]

In the Mediterranean Theater the FBs of both Italy and Germany are repositioned. Italian fighter squadrons swarm south to contest the Allied air armada.



Luftwaffe level bombers are concentrated in airbases in southern Italy, in the area we'll call The Heel. These bombers will be used extensively in '43 to contest Allied control of the seas, and to increase shipping attrition wherever possible.



The Allied landings come ashore on three beaches, leaving half the Allied amphibious force available for further mischief.

[Seminole]

Garrison status at the end of the turn:



Ground losses for the turn:



Army Group C lays out a strategy of maximum resistance in Italy.
The islands of Corsica and Sardinia will be contested, with reinforcements underway on the first turn.
Transport aircraft are transferred to southern France to this end.
Sicily will be contested insofar as Allied landings permit.
Threats to the Toe and overland lines of communication will be respected and compel withdrawal.
Army Group C will endeavor to leave no German units behind for capture at any point.

Land moves:

90th PzG is moved through the port of Tortoli instead of Cagliari due to enemy naval interdiction, so while they reach Naples this week, they cannot unload yet.

Next are the strategic moves to meet our garrison requirements, prepare our outer defenses.

Operations Charybdis and Scylla are initiated to defend Corsica and Sardinia in the event of Italian betrayal with immediate re-deployment of security and paratroops:

Security unit distribution for Garrison requirements:
*197th Sec Rgt - Bordeaux
*16th Sec Rgt - Avignon - railed from Antwerp
*195th Sec Rgt - Rennes
*35th Sec Rgt - Amiens
*22nd Sec Rgt - Brussels
*26th Sec Rgt from Amsterdam to Bologna (on train), must unload next week.

*95th Sec Rgt sails from Marseilles to Olbia and unloads

Security Regiments relocated to southern France for deployment in the Med:
*193rd Sec Rgt rails to Lyon
*200th Sec Rgt rails to Avignon.
*198th 192nd Sec Rgt to Avignon
*66th Sec Rgt to Istres-le-Tube
*199th & 194th railed to Avignon unload and bivouac outside city
*56th Sec Rgt to Nimes
*196th Sec Rgt to Nimes
*66th Sec Rgt already in Avignon
*325th Sec Div from Paris to Nimes

*135th Fortress Bde sailed to Olbia and unloaded.
*Landstorm Nederland SS Inf Rgt rails to Genoa from Netherlands
*16th SS Sturm Bde (Mot) loads up and sails to Salerno to unload next week. Don't want to leave mechanized forces on the islands, as they can't evacuate by air.
*90th PzG Div from Corsica to Naples, same reason as above.

*4th FSCHJ Div to Bari to defend The Heel (still on rail cars).
*16th Pzr Div breaks down to garrison Brindisi, and two regiments are moved to top of The Foot to help hold critical terrain from potential beachhead forces ZOC.
*29th PzG Div sets up in The Toe to block any secondary invasions.
*3rd PzG Div rails from just north of Rome to Cosenza and unloads. Will be used as a mobile reserve for any potential secondary invasions in The Toe.

*14th Pzr Div rails to La Rochelle from NW France so that 10 SS PzG Div can leave SW France for Italy.
*10th SS PzG Div takes train to Livorno (N. Italy), replaced in SW France by 14th Pzr Div which rebases in La Rochelle.
*305th Inf Div takes over for 9th SS PzG Div (railed to Bologna) in Amiens.

*1st & 2nd FSCHJ Div to Marseilles with XI LW Flieger Corps for transport next week.
*Fernhalle PzG Div moves into Avignon so paratroops can leave for the islands.

Sicilian Theater at the end of the turn:



Mediterranean Theater at the end of the turn:

[Seminole]

Turn 3
July 17, 1943

Weather report:



Cumulative shipping losses:
Troop ship 13
Cargo ship 37



Allies hit Sardinia this week on three ports, naval interdicting the eastern port from the skies.
The two German units shipped last week are bumped inland, and will have to run for the airport to be lifted to Corsica. At least now we know where his landings are and have a few weeks to prepare mainland defenses
This is a well designed attack, as it takes out the supply sources. All it takes is parking a TF off the eastern coast next week to make certain the blockade without any naval interdiction. We will airlift out the Germans and see if we can make some Italians fight. Pretty sure that the Sardinian conquest will trigger Italian surrender, so we will redeploy some security units to the south to help hold rail lines. Germans won’t try to hold Sicily extra time, don’t want those forces cut off and risked at sea.



Initial Med overview at the beginning of turn 3:

[Seminole]

Air losses at the beginning of the turn:



Luftwaffe and Italian Air Force Air Directives:



Goering's boys re-open the sea lanes to Sardinia, ensuring that they won't fight in isolation status next week.



Air losses this turn's air execution phase:

[Seminole]

In Sicily the Germans launch a counter attack, hitting a British infantry division in the open with several mechanized formations.



Sicilian defensive arrangement at the end of the turn:



Defenses in southern Italy

[Seminole]

Turn 4
July 24, 1943

Weather report brings some rain to N. Europe, but little to deter the Allied bomber fleets.



Cumulative shipping losses:
Troop ship 25
Cargo ship 91

Even more naval interdiction efforts in the Med, it appears he has completely denuded the British Isle of naval patrols. As tempted as I am to recon his UK airfields and perhaps even cut supplies, I think I’ll let him bleed this way (what I suspect is happening) since I specifically warned about this prospect in our first match and he’s taken the deliberate trade off of min/maxing airpower in the Med. to providing any cover for sea lanes around the British Isles.
If I bring in some level bombers and cut his port supply (e.g. to London, or other major ports) he’ll respond and I might not cost him nearly as dearly as this appears to in mere attrition.
These shipping losses are not sustainable for the campaign.

Night Fighters didn’t fly their air superiority missions. Zero miles. I don't know if I'm doing something wrong, or the AS AD is broken. It works in some places.





Deleted the ADs and will rely on auto intercept as with the FBs in N. Europe.

In Sardinia the Allies sent 82nd Airborne Div into Tortoli and completed their isolation of the island. Still hoping to evac the two German units on the island, but it is looking dicey.
Loss of Sardinia will trigger Italian surrender. Don’t really want to leave troops in Sicily due to high likelihood the Allies can commit the forces capture/destroy them if desired and remove them from the map for a time.

Will rest most aircraft this turn and dig some more in the south.
2nd FJ Div joins 1st on Corsica this week. Security units brought in to cover the rest of the Italian units for surrender.

Shuffle garrison forces to put 24th + 26th Pzr Div on rails to Italy.



Build forts in southern Italy to protect rail lines to depots. 325th Security Div will take responsibility for southern ‘Toe’ cities when the Italians surrender.
56th Security Div stopover in Rome in enroute to The Toe city Cosenza.

Will continue building forts to protect rail lines in S. Italy for two more turns, then start building some forts to protect ports in Italy.
Need to map out how many turns that will take and when we can begin to build out the WestWall and fortify W. European cities as well.

Next turn assess formations in Italy and how to set up command. Decide about how fast to exit Sicily and escape from Sardinia.

Overall Med. situation at the end of turn 4:

[Seminole]

Turn 5
July 31, 1943

Weather report:



Cumulative shipping losses:
Troop ship 32
Cargo ship 128

At this point in the war only 4 troop ships and 30 cargo ships are built per turn.
Shipping losses are tracked, and updates on the war at sea will be provided at interval.

N. Europe Air War

This is really where I get my comeuppance.
I just don't know how best to arrange my defenses, or manage my pilots (haven't even delved into that dark art).

Arrangements of FBs and NFs in Europe with ADs on display:




Meanwhile, my FB crews achieve some disappointing results when they manage to intercept bombers:
(this is during the Allied phase, so it shows turn 4, but I see it on turn 5)



The bomber losses mainly seem to come from OPS, not A2A or flak.



Much worse for the Luftwaffe is when P-38 Lightnings are escorting B-17s over the Baltic.
These fork tailed devils tear up the German fighters.



Mosquitoes are also proving deadly as escorts. They chew up some Fw-190s




The British switch to daylight raids and lose 74 Halifax bombers and the USAAF loses 138 B-17s for the week.
Overall, 432 level bombers lost, 662 aircraft total for the Allies.
Axis lost 321 (125 Italian) almost completely FBs as the bombers mainly rested for this phase/week.


Air losses:

[Seminole]

I see lots of Allied bombing on the land, apparently interdicting.
We are ok with this use of the Allied air frames at this point, especially in this place.
Axis recon checks out the airbases on Sicily and Sardinia.
Bombing runs against the enemy patrol aircraft next week may be on the menu.



Allies let up their naval patrols around Sardinia and Sicily, we expect the result to be increased shipping losses, so we don’t add patrols in order to not encourage a response.
Instead the Allies have relocated some naval interdiction aircraft to Sardina, and run a path from Corsica to Marseilles and Italy, I guess trying to cut off supply to the southern Med?
Axis setup naval patrols, but have them turned off this phase so that we don’t tip our hand.



On Sicily the British 7th Arm Div hits the western flank, making three failed hasty attacks against the port.
The TFs have left the scene. The Italians pull back into the hills. Don’t expect to offer too much more delay overall.



Hube's XIV Panzer Corps holds position against the 8th Army in the foothills of Mt Etna, and then organizes a successful counter attack against the 5th BR Inf Div to give the Commonwealth some losses.




Kesselring learns that his orders to relocate transports for the evacuation of German units from Sardinia were not followed last week!
We station some Italian transports on the island, and some more on Corsica just in case we've insufficiently judged the required airlift capacity.
If they can hold for one more week we should be able to get them out!

[Seminole]

A peek at the UK shipping lanes:



The overall strategic map of Europe end of turn 5:



Southern Italian theater map end of turn 5:

[Seminole]

Turn 6
August 7, 1943

Weather report:



Setup ~450 LBs to hit the runways in southern Sardinia and try to take out some patrol aircraft on the ground.
11 missions get turned into interdiction, wasting around 20% of attacks. Will make airfield attacks single hex affairs in the future.
Finally worked up some damage near the end of the week, but aircraft destroyed on the ground was disappointing considering the commitment.
Allies lost 45 aircraft on the ground. I decided to delete the airfield attack ADs, but kept up the recon.

It was a dumb mistake to place transports on the island of Sardinia last week when there was no air support! With supplies cut off no air support squads could be delivered.
Both Italian transport squadrons grounded as consequence. Completely unforced error!
I was able to use one of the back up transports placed on Corsica to extract the 95th Sec Rgt, but failed to relocate sufficient air transport to pull the 135th Fortress Bde.
Should have risked all the Italian transports to Corsica, no reason not to with surrender pending with the fall of Sardinia



Garrison moves
71st Infantry Div from Denmark to Italy
16th LW Div to Denmark border, need to cross next week to add garrison buffer.
All new reinforcements to Italy, refitting 12th SS PzG Div in Milan first, German Inf Div stops in Vienna with SS PzG Div back from the East Front.



Italian surrender expected with Sardinia sure to fall.
Built forts in Foggia and Naples. Will continue to focus on Italian ports in the near term.
OKW has plotted out fort construction for the Atlantic Wall and backup fortification lines.
Need to schedule Italian fort building with N. Europe.

VP status:



Overall strategic map of the southern theater.

[Seminole]

With the Battle of Sardinia coming to a close the only advantage the Axis perceive is that it will take a bit to ship the invasion back out. The small ports, which will need repair, can create some logistical bottlenecks as the Allies try to keep their force concentrated.
Force identified on Sardinia:
Unit Name
3rd US Inf Div
2nd US Arm Div
82nd US Arb Div
1st US Arm Div
?? US Arm Div
45th US Inf Div
51st BR Inf Div
1st BR SAS Bde
1st CA Inf Div
We expect there may have been more, but these were verified.

Italians POWs are really stacking up in the ground losses:



Turn 7
August 14, 1943

Weather report:



Cumulative shipping losses:
Troop ships 39
Cargo ships 175

Sardinia conquered, and the 135th Fortress Bde was finally captured, but no Italian surrender as of yet.



10th Army arrives in Italy and more reinforcements stream in.
Need to plot out garrison juggle ahead with withdrawing units and N. Italy need.

Allies make many unsuccessful attacks trying to force their way forward under a carpet of allied level bombers. The level bombers aren’t very efficacious in the rough terrain. Lack of task force support bodes well. Will probably pull back next week, then evac Messina with Italian surrender.



Corsica defense receives first Corps HQ on the island and 1st Army moves to Genoa.



The Italians are digging in for the long haul. Definitely glad we still have use of their shovels, even if their rifles don't amount to much:

[Seminole]

Army Group C (under Kesselring) at the end of turn 7:

[Seminole]

Turn 8
August 21, 1943

No Italian surrender.
The Germans have close to 200 CV deployed into Italy, and it makes the surrender chance vanishingly small.
This chance to deter surrender will suffer a divisor once the Allied mainland landings occur.

Garrison levels:



17th LW Div recombined and put on rails to Paris. Will fight in Italy with the 16th LW Div, which has railed from Denmark to N. Italy this week, and will deploy in South Italy next week.
Want to pull all LW divisions to Italy to fight and gain morale before the Battle of France.
10th Army arrives north of Rome and Army Group C builds out the rest of the planned forts around Rome and deploy some more infantry regiments. The 4th FJ is pulled from the Heel port defense to ports by Rome for redeployment to Corsica.

More futile attacks by the Allies against the Germans on Sicily, but they do force the Italians to abandon the mountains after their mountaineers falter and become unfit for duty.
The division is pulled back to Messina for refit.
H. Goering Panzer Div is being worn down (<60% TOE) under repeated attacks and weeks unbroken on the front line.
Hube orders a pull back to a shorter line, with Italians holding the front while the Germans take a break.
Next week will be a pull back to the Messina perimeter, and then exfil from the island the following week.
Hube expects the British will tear through the Italians next week.

XIV Panzer Corps estimates of relative force strength in the Sicilian theater:



Corsica supply is nearly maxed out. We update the naval patrol missions and hope to keep the island open for business next week as well.
LBs are located farther north in Italy after the Allies made some attempts to bomb airfields.
Marcks’ LXXXVII Corps HQ ships to Corsica under 1st Army to help split command with Student’s XI LW Flieger Corps.

Detailed map of Med Theater:

[EwaldvonKleist]

Good AAR-you take fortifying really seriously!

[Seminole]

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Good AAR-you take fortifying really seriously!

Sweat saves blood!

Probably overdone a little bit, but method to the madness.
So much defensible terrain in Italy, especially if the enemy is willing to fight in the Deep South.

The units on rough terrain can’t be accurately IDed by aerial recon, so it leaves the Allies unsure where your true strength lies.

The fortification multiplier is nice, but a big reason for the forts in the south is that the game isn’t working as described with respect to the garrison ‘coverage’ provided by combat units in the far south against rebelling Italians. Consequently last match I lost some rail lines I shouldn’t have and to add insult to injury, the Germans won’t repair the rail in the ‘rebel zone’ of south Italy after Italian surrender. If you can’t stock depots down there you lose obscene amounts of trucks supporting units holding the natural bottlenecks in The Toe due to the rough terrain and mountains.
So, by placing forts on the rails in the rebel zone, I pay an AP cost to ensure I can fight as far from the Reich as possible.

The Allies are always racing the clock.

[Seminole]

Turn 9
August 28, 1943

Still no Italian surrender.

Weather report:



Garrison in N. Italy is nearing the level needed in September.



VP situation after the first 8 turns:

[Seminole]

Air Losses overall:



And by specific airframe. The B-17s are getting used hard, over 1200 lost so far.



The flak over Messina chew up some Allied air squadrons this week.
This hapless group went down to a man solely to AAA over Messina.

[Seminole]

FB and NF range circles overlaid on intercept and Allied bombing battle locations:



FB range circles and ADs in the Med theater:



With the Allies coming into Sardinia and Sicily simultaneously, the Germans will drag out the battle of Sicily as long as practicable.
If there isn't a follow on mainland invasion to make Italian surrender much more likely, Kesselring will continue to defend as far south as possible.
Hube stiffens the German perimeter around Messina with several retreating and freshly arrived Italian formations.

[Seminole]

Turn 10
September 4, 1943

Forgot to screenshot the weather this turn.

Cumulative shipping losses:
Troop ship 53
Cargo ship 258

Garrison commitments have increased, and been met:



The Allies have made two landings on Corsica: