Summer 42: Fall Blau - GC41 Rosencrantus (A) vs Tyronec, jubjub (S)

[Rosencrantus]

Losses:

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Soviet losses have been kept at least 100k every single turn save the one turn where the Kiev encirclement was opened so I avoid attacking to prevent units from routing outside.

[Beethoven1]

Looks like a pretty good game, with Soviets actually getting decently battered and bruised. Obviously you can see more detail than me, but it looks to me like Soviets took high avoidable losses in turn 2 in the south in particular:



Obviously, that is just one turn, but I think the early losses are more important, since if you avoid the early losses, then the Soviet troops will be stronger and more able to avoid losses in subsequent turns also. You seem subsequently to have been able to follow up those turn 2 pockets/semi-pockets with other pockets, and ultimately of course the Kiev mega-pocket, which really adds up over time.

I suspect that having theater boxes locked may be making a difference also, because Soviets have a lot of manpower that is locked up particularly in the far east, which doesn't get sent to the map by the scheduled transfers as fast as it could be when unlocked. So when you have that combined with he various early pockets, it leaves Soviets with not enough counters on the map to defend well.

What supply priority are Soviets using? You should be able to see on the German side from the soft factor.

Anyway, interesting game and the AAR is a good read! I wonder how much Soviets can recover in winter.

[loki100]

agree with that - wonder if Tyrone has become so wedded to his lunge towards Odessa he forgot how effective a well executed offensive via Rovno can be?

In any case, excellent AAR and clearly a nice tense game

[tyronec]

agree with that - wonder if Tyrone has become so wedded to his lunge towards Odessa he forgot how effective a well executed offensive via Rovno can be?

In any case, excellent AAR and clearly a nice tense game

I got too many units pocketed too early and have been playing a delaying action with an army that was too small ever since.
Well played to Rosencrantus.

[Rosencrantus]

I think the game is starting to play out more historically now that my advance is beginning to slow and Tyronec is getting more and more reserves on the map. I definitely am starting to feel the momentum and initiative slip away from me right now.

Theatre boxes are unlocked by the way - just added that back to the very first post.

[Beethoven1]

I think the game is starting to play out more historically now that my advance is beginning to slow and Tyronec is getting more and more reserves on the map. I definitely am starting to feel the momentum and initiative slip away from me right now.

Theatre boxes are unlocked by the way - just added that back to the very first post.

Ah ok, interesting, I don't know why I keep getting that confused. Have either of you been using the theatre boxes for any particular things, or just having it unlocked to be able to make minor adjustments more or less for QOL? In particular, did Soviets try at all to bring additional divisions to the map sooner than they were scheduled?

[Rosencrantus]

I use it mostly for QOL such as canceling a infantry division transfer that the wiki says was done for refitting purposes but is actually high TOE and sending weaker divisions as a replacement instead.

[tyronec]

On reflection it is time for me to resign.
The reason is there in the graph of losses; too heavy throughout the summer. As of T21 where we are now the Soviet army stands at below 3.5M of which quite a few units are depleted and more are in pockets. It is not enough.
Rosencrantus did a good job and deserves the win, thanks for the game.

[Joel Billings]

I just want to point out that after the start of Operation Typhoon, the Soviets ended up with well under 3 million on the front line. Now this didn't last for long, but they spent a lot of time around the 3 million mark. Is your 3.5 million on map, or do you have a lot of that in the reserve? I would think you'd want to play it out at least until November as the weather rolls can have an impact on how things go in the fall.

[AlbertN]

I am with Joel here.

3.5 is a more than decent numbers - and early december Soviets get an event for a big manpower boost.

It spells promise for an interesting game that can be continued, instead of a Soviet wild ride in '42.

[tyronec]

I am with Joel here.

3.5 is a more than decent numbers - and early december Soviets get an event for a big manpower boost.

It spells promise for an interesting game that can be continued, instead of a Soviet wild ride in '42.

I think you are both completely wrong. From my experience the Soviets need to be at around 3.5M at the end of the summer, while in this game they were at around 3M building up to 3.5M during the snow offensive and about to take some more of a hammering before the blizzard. So not even a marginal decision, actually the game was pretty much won by Axis mid summer as long as Rosencrantus continued to play well.
Fair enough though, everyone has their own opinion though the game has been resigned and so is over.

[Rosencrantus]

T21 - November 9, 1941

Here are a couple screenshots of the last played turn. PG2 was getting pretty close to Moscow but I was going to start digging in soon because I was getting worried about my overextended flanks and my dismal logistics. My units were also taking pretty heavy losses as I lost 12.5k men killed this turn.

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Here is an supply turn (I usually receive around 20k) but you see the supply downfalls.

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Here's also another picture of the OOB. This screenshot was taken at the beginning of the turn so afterwards he was at around 3.45m on the map. German troops were at about 3.08m. With the amount of reserves he had and the 500k yet to come I was starting to get really scared.

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Joel, is there anyway to continue the save or anything with another person? Or is the game one and done once resignation is there?

[Beethoven1]

First of all, I am very sorry to see this game end. The AAR was very good, and it looked like it was a very interesting game. From what I can tell, it doesn't look to me like it was entirely decided. Indeed, if anything it looks fairly historical - more or less how you would ideally want the average game to be going. However, obviously all I know about the last 5-6 turns of the game is what I can see in the single Moscow screenshot that Rosencrantus posted, so perhaps the situation is more dire than one would think from that. And in addition, we readers only know the incomplete information about the game that appears in the AAR.

Anyway, I hope it might be possible that it can somehow be continued with another Soviet player, as Rosencrantus mentioned he was interested in.

Second, Joel made a reference to this game in my other "Oh Woe is You, Germany Player" AAR. Since it (at least the latter 3/4ths of it) is about this game more than mine, I will reply to it here.

I haven't read the entire AAR, but wanted to comment on your question of how much better a good player would be versus and experienced player. Ask the same question about a game of chess (in some ways a simpler game than WitE2). I would expect an experienced chess player to blow out a novice player, and I would expect nothing less with WitE2. Look no further than the game of Rosencrancrantus vs Tyronec to see what a good German player can do (a game between two experienced players). This game is much harder for a novice German player to pick up and play well compared to a novice Soviet player, at least in 1941. That's the nature of this beast. In games between two novice players, I'd want to have them bid morale help level for side, so the German player would get a bit of help. Only as the German player gains skill can he hope to match an equally skilled Soviet player in 1941. That's my 2 cents

So Joel is holding up this game is being held up as an example of a game where an experienced Germany player beats an experienced Soviet player. As such, it is important for the WITE2 community that we discuss this game and try to figure out if it does support the contention that the game is balanced in 2-player games. On its face, it is plausible that it may, but there are some significant details that might be relevant, that I would hope we could share and discuss.

First of all, the Axis has so far in this game not actually achieved a 'formal' victory in terms of a 'formal 'sudden victory, but rather the Soviet player is simply (unfortunately, in my view) resigning due to a perception on his part that his army is too weak. So in the game's own terms, it is not actually over, just in the perception of one of the players.

Secondly, at least in my view, there are important variables to consider in assessing balance, other than simply whether the Soviet and Axis players are experienced per se. These include two things that I asked about previously in this thread, but never received a reply about. So I will ask them again, in the hopes that maybe we can find out, since this would provide more context and be informative for assessing balance.

a) Did the Soviet player use supply priority 4?
b) Did the Soviet player use the theater boxes to bring units to the map more quickly than scheduled, given that TBs were unlocked?

My guess is that the answer to both of these is no. But my guess could be wrong, so it is important to ask to try to make sure.

If the answers *are* no, then this game could support the argument that the game is balanced, provided that Soviets do not use supply priority 4 and that they are either playing with theater boxes locked, or do not benefit from getting units more quickly to the map (and also provided that the Soviet player, despite being experienced, makes some fairly significant mistakes that also appear to have been quite avoidable, in particular in the early defenses of the south and the Kiev encirclement).

However, it would not necessarily support the argument that the game is balanced overall, if Soviets take advantage of the tools the game gives them.

[Joel Billings]

I didn't actually say that this game was an example of a German victory, just and example that a good German player can make the game very competitive (and even win) in a game against a good Soviet player. I think there have been a lot of changes to the game recently that have tended to help the Germans (the biggest being less ability of Soviets to kill German tanks in 1941 compared to where we started). The game will continue to evolve, but it's hard to thread the needle where the inexperience German player doesn't get too frustrated without making it too easy for the experience German player.

[Rosencrantus]

T16 - October 5th, 1941

Fortunately Jubjub is willing to continue on playing as the Soviets so I will continue this AAR. He might make a quick post here soon

AGC:

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Tula has been found abandoned and is subsequently occupied. Majority of the divisions this turn is resting and resupplying.

AGN:

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Leningrad has finally been cut off by land after very hard fought battles. I managed to get a battle to cause 10k+ losses to the Soviets because the divisions there (136th, 31st RD) have already been defeated in a previous battle and have a lot of damaged elements that get destroyed when they have to retreat again. This is something players should look for when trying to cause extreme retreat losses to enemy divisions that don't retreat far. When doing this you should also try to attack with at least one unit that's motorised as they cause more retreat losses (better at pursuit is probably the logic).

[Rosencrantus]

AGS:

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Battle for Stalino begins, PG1 begins a flanking south of the city due to the light defenses and due to the fact that the air climate of the area won't be heavy rain leading to heavy mud in October, guaranteeing that the offensive won't be halted due to weather.

Things to note:

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T34's and KV-1s outmatch those dinky Pz II's and Pz 35/38s by quite a lot...

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Supply traces are also looking very good but I simply am not getting the amount of freight needed per turn.

Let's also take a look at VP's

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I'm at 588 pts and I'm clearly not going to fail the HWM test of Jan 42. Sudden victory of 750 is also clearly not going to happen as Soviet resistance near Moscow is bound to stiffen soon. I've gotten 26 VPs from the time bonus which is significant and should help me a lot as the game goes on.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

T16 - October 5th, 1941

Fortunately Jubjub is willing to continue on playing as the Soviets so I will continue this AAR. He might make a quick post here soon

Jubjub

Glad you picked this up.

[Rosencrantus]

T17 - October 12, 1941

AGC:

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PG3 begins the push for Kalinin and with elements of PG2 outflank the Soviet forces at Kaluga. We are slowly but surely inching closer and closer to Moscow...

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But one thing that certainly isn't helping is just how dreadful my supply situation is. I am now normally receiving 50% of supply need and occasionally receive less. This is even with setting all my units to 50% TOE to minimize replacements being sent. The only time I can hope to temporarily get enough supply to meet demand is by using a super depot which prevents me from expanding my rail network.

AGS:

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Stalino itself was directly assaulted and captured.

Next few turns seem to be heavy rain and heavy mud - more time for the Soviets to reinforce...

[Rosencrantus]

Here's a pic from jubjub from our current turn, T23. Seems like he's going to have his own fun soon... Especially once he gets his 500k.

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[Beethoven1]

I am glad to see this very interesting game continuing, and I am sure that if anyone can breathe life into the Soviets, it is jubjub. My guess is the reason his manpower went up > 250k in one turn may be from disbanding a lot of unused support units sucking up manpower, perhaps combined with deploying units in the reserve to the map? How big was the reserve beforehand?

- edit -

ah, I see this screenshot from turn 21, so I guess the 374k in reserve has probably dropped way down: