Panzerball - a GC 41 case study

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Turn 8 - August 10, 1941

More ominous weather for the Axis developing in the Artic.



Turn summary shows Soviet army continuing to grow despite the 100k+ casualties suffered last week.



:: Panzerball has entered the chat ::

The question of where did the AGC panzers go has been definitively answered. It appears certain at this point that AGS has also been robbed of all but three Pzr Divs (11th, 13th, and 14th) and the 16th Mot Div.
Units in the panzerball IDed so far:



Armor highlighted across the frontline:

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STAVKA reorients defenses by thinning out behind Kiev and shifting everyone possible north to provide some depth against the enormous number of hasty stack attacks the panzerball can deliver.

Without Pskov I have to think it will be hard to properly feed and fuel this enormous number of units. The Germans also have what could be as many as 40 infantry divisions also facing off under AGN. STAVKA determines this will require at least four Fronts to try and defend Leningrad, with some corps HQs managing reserves and diggers.

Change in AGN progress from end of turn 7 to end of turn 8.

[Beethoven1]

Nicely done destroying the motorized division near Kiev. I think you should be able to hold Leningrad without much problem.

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This is easily the best spot to defend against a panzerball due to the channeling effect of the impassable hexes and the irreducible defense modifiers of the terrain. But I knew I had to throw the kitchen sink at it. German strength lies in gaining operational freedom for their mech, and I avoided that by the barest margin last week.

Perversely, by parking his infantry and going extreme overweight he’s opened the door for me to do almost the same. The lack of mech from Velikie-Luki to Cherkassy means that any defense in depth is really just icing and available reserves to thin and shift the line north or south.

I think while the Axis need a strategic focus in ‘41, overdoing it frees up the opponent and limits their concerns.

I was more curious what the supply situation would be with the German unit density, and the fact I had briefly held Riga and still held Tallinn and Pskov.

[Hardradi]

A huge attack is launched on the besieged 60th Mot Div and they surrender!

That's one hell of a Panzerball you are facing.

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Turn 9 - August 17, 1941

Rain again threatens the Axis in the north, but isn't over the battlefield this week.



AGN settles for a siege at Tallinn and makes a small gain at the Narva river, but the Panzerball and forces west of Velikie Luki unleash a barrage of attacks. They reach the southern shores of Lake Ilmen and pivot to the north toward Leningrad.

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The Panzerball has helped put AGN back on historical schedule.
The question is whether, especially without Pskov, they can feed momentum of a force this large, in this concentration.



The frontal attacks result in high losses of the Soviets.



Destroyed units thus far:



Air losses are high this week for both sides.

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AGC is silent, but AGS attempts a few Dnepr crossings while making the main effort toward the Dnepr Bend.



A Soviet counter attack against German mech spearheads fails, with heavy armor losses for the Red Army.

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At Smolensk AGC is digging in behind the Dnepr. Central Front holds a thin screen as everything possible is on rails heading north to counter the German over commitment.



Mogilev to Chernigov is practically a ghost town, and STAVKA has stripped the area accordingly.



Dnepr defenses in northern Ukraine.
Very thin here, spread to offer troops up north, and secure with the German mech forces farther southeast.

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Observed relative formation strength at The Bend.



The Axis are poised to cross the Dnepr and enter Crimea.

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Overall map at the beginning of turn 9:



In the north reinforcements join in echelon behind the current lines.
Under Bryansk Front the best available units are railing north to backstop the battered forces of Northwestern and Leningrad Front.
In the south the Dnepr coverage is almost complete, as the Axis arrive in strength along its entire breadth.

Overall map at the end of turn 9:

[Stamb]

always wanted to see what gonna happen in pvp game when Axis concentrate so many mobile forces on one axis
waiting for a next posts

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Turn 10 - August 24, 1941

The weather has not been kind to the Axis this summer, and the rain return to visit AGN.



OoB for late August:



The airborne and cavalry corps also report to STAVKA, and are used to help backstop combined arms armies, but I didn't include them here (~15k men reporting to each currently).

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Several Soviet generals have given their all:



Ground losses:



Even heavier Soviet and German air losses this week.
Detail on German losses by type:



Destroyed units, Germans only manage to overrun two airbases this week:

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AGN battles in the salient.
The siege at Tallinn continues without an attack.
Another nibble on the Narva river line.
The Panzerball continues hammering forward, with the German infantry trying to clear their northwestern flank.
A motorized corps diverts east, south of Lake Ilmen, but finds the going hard.
Most importantly, Pskov remains in Soviet hands, which should be stretching the German supply lines for all these mechanized units.



Western Front successfully defends Velikie-Luki, while the German infantry make a broad push against the line in this sector while AGC remains quiet.

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South of the dead zone from Smolensk to Gomel the Axis make several successful attacks across the Dnepr, but lack the MP or desire to follow up with crossings and bridgeheads. Southwest Front will retake these hexes and force them to fight over this territory again before advancing.



At The Bend the Germans concentrate most of their attacks and except for Dnepropetrovsk they clear everything west of the river.

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The battle for Velikie-Luki was not a light effort by the Germans. 8 on map units were committed to fight:

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CV for AGN theater at the beginning of the turn as the Panzerball's momentum begins to sap.



STAVKA orders the withdrawal of combat formations from Pskov to avoid encirclement.
Defenses are stiffened to keep the Germans from Novgorod, as well as stop movement north on their current axis.
We're hoping to invite him with weakness to fight back toward the west, perhaps entertaining the idea of an encirclement.
Bryansk Front forces arrive take up positions to contain any breakthroughs.

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Panzerball tracker.

These are the on map units verified in the Panzerball so far.
Units with a leading "?" were not identified on map this turn, likely off the front line trying to rest and recoup.
Units that are italicized suffered defeats (failed attacks) during the turn.

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We have the air war handled by the AI in this game.
I really enjoyed the air war model in War in the West, but in my first game against Q-ball as the Soviets it seemed like I could wreak a lot of early havoc with IL-2s on his mech formations.
I tend to think this part of the game might sim better being abstracted, where people can't min/max the game engine too hard.

At any rate, I laid out some ADs just to compare to what the AI did on my behalf.

Mine is the before:



AI was actually pretty close in determining what mattered and what to do: