The Shipwreck of Our Hopes: Japanese Side

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bklooste
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

Unless he overcommits in Burma i would not do the hook , without Ceylon.  He would have 400-500 AV in Calcutta , he can rail in another 500AV + the troops in Burma.  
 
If he over commits in Burma , then great he cant get them back in time and they will be trapped .
With Ceylon he has multiple points to defend / reinforce so the rail AV will be more disperesed and you have more options.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I am sure that they have pulled cadres of everything wanted. I truly hate that in this game. Can understand doing it but when one pulls out 25-75 guys so a unit can be rebuilt later it seems a bit farcical. This is a long-standing gripe of mine from WitP. Whenever I played the Allies I always tried to pull the entire unit. If I lost a ship or two carrying that unit only then did I have a fragment. Ah, well to each their own I guess.

We certainly have been aggressive but it certainly has been helped by the relatively easy capture of Malaya and Manila. Shall have to see if resistance stiffens when we move into NW Australia as well as the India Hook we are chatting about.

Recon has started in Rangoon. Don't think Michael has been able to start recon over NW Australia yet.

In theory it shouldnt matter it just means another unit has less , it depends on replacement rates. I dont mind so much , if the 1st Marine DIv was lost the US would just reform it or make another one.

Suggest a recon of Darwin before landing even a Mavis or Glen.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by John 3rd »

Good thought on that Recon BK!

This assumes we see a turn. It is our third day without currently...
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by ComradeP »

John, your reputation suggests that you like to go "all in" whenever you plan an invasion, but it might be wise to, together with your teammate of course, try to compose a few contingency plans too.

Specifically:

-How many transports do you keep around 1) Australia, 2) the Calcutta region of India/Burma, 3) Ceylon (it might be best to see 2 and 3 as completely seperate operations in terms of transport allocated to them, so you don't end up planning to use the same transport TF at 2 different places at the same time by accident) for when your landings go awry and you need to pack up and leave.

As has been established a number of times in the AAR thus far, time is Japan's worst enemy and speed is essential, so if a landing doesn't go as planned it might not be the best course of action to leave the troops there and hope it will eventually still succeed. That would only force you to play the Allies' game, which is to try and attrite you with the rag-tag bunch of forces they have currently whilst they're bringing the quality units slowly into play.

It's difficult to remain calm when the enemy's landing somewhere so the Allies might very well overcommit forces, especially if they feel they have a chance to smash your landings. In that case, it would only be to your (as in: your team's) advantage to try a landing elsewhere. You don't need to K.O. the Ceylon garrison instantly and it's probably impossible to do so in any case, regardless of what he has there. The place is simply too big for that.

Due to its location, securing Darwin is pretty much hit or miss as you can either handle what's there now or you can't, in which case you still have some time to reinforce before more Aussies show up, but that might be a tough decision to make as any kind of war of attrition against the, at this time admittedly poorly trained, Australian militia and some regulars favours the Allies.

The landing at Calcutta or Diamond Harbour doesn't have much room for error as I see it, as otherwise the Indian Army will move in and the Burma Army will move out (of Burma) to stop your advance.

There's also another point: what if Port Blair is defended? Do you send part of the fleet there at this point, even though it could be risky.

-What to do with (parts of) KB on the short and long term?

It's weird that KB didn't even hit any "picket" ships, which basically work like "reconnaissance shells", but the Allies probably knew you were coming and moved everything of value out. You could try to do something they won't predict and will probably only detect when KB sinks a (picket) TF due to the poor recon the Allies will have, like moving directly "East" (on the AE map) between NZ and Southern Australia. I don't know if you have the time or fuel for a minor detour before KB returns to Norfolk Island.

There are also longer term questions: how long will they stay at anchor at Truk? What if there are (RN) carriers in the Bay of Bengal?

-What to do with the surface fleet? Where do the heavy ships go, knowing that at least some of the Allied CV's are operating well below strength because for some reason they dropped their SBD's on an island? What if the RN will try to fight in the Bay of Bengal?

I'm the kind of guy that usually sees problems where others see solutions, and I'm inclined to create a contingency plan before I have the actual plan completely worked out, so I might be giving your next moves too much thought whilst you're still trying to work out the specifics.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by John 3rd »

Nice thoughts Comrade P and welcome to the AAR. My 'reputation' is getting to be rather entertaining!

Michael and I did not talk on the phone yesterday so we'll see what the most current thinking is.

As to some of your points:
1. We've got the sealift in place for the South Pacific (about 2 Inf Div worth) and Michael had already sent shipping towards Singapore planning on its fall. That shipping is enough to carry the greater portion of the 3 Inf Div present.
2. Michael will smash Darwin within a week-to-ten days.
3. The India Hook is a much more risky operation but carries the potential for great benefits. Key will be to lure the Burma Army into a fight so it is fixed in south Burma.
4. MUST grab Port Blair. It is the natural left flank on any advance into Burma/India.
5. Michael has at current command 3 CV and 3 CVL. This should be enough to handle much of whatever is there. I've got the other 5 CV in the Coral Sea right now. They'll cover Suva Landings and then repair their damage in Truk.

Need to think on the Surface Fleet commentary.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by Canoerebel »

Count me in as one of those trying to broadcast John's reputation.  I've been trying for years.  The guy is a lunatic.  He does crazy stuff like invade Australia and New Zealand and Alaska and Pearl Harbor (remember Operation East Wind from one of his WitP games) and India (early, in a game he teamed with Q-Ball, and nutty late in a game against me).  He'll seize Pago Pago, Suva, Midway, and Dutch Island as if these were his birthright.

I am "astonied" that he hasn't already decided to seize Tahiti and the Seychilles in this game.

John is aggressive but he's adept at operational planning.  And his aggression usually works strategically because his opponents aren't prepared for it and, in reacting or fleeing, make mistakes and lose lots of important assets that otherwise wouldn't be lost.  Sure, John eventually loses the game - doesn't Japan nearly always lose? - but both he and his opponents - and his teammates, too, now that I think of it - have a wild, crazy, fun ride that lasts for months or years. 

What's not to like about that?
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

With the failure of the Sydney raid it is obvious that neither the small hook nor , Darwin / Perth will bring his fleet to the fight only something more daring or risky will do that.
 
With this mod that means he is probably planning something like this - hit the Marshals in early 43 with 6 CVs , take Ponape and then Bomb Truk with B17s , then prepare for the marianas. The nature of a CV mod will favour the allies strategically esp in late 43 to early 43..
 
IMHO in this mod you must sink CVs in early 42 even if that means you have to hit PH / take Hawai except Oahu , Raid the West coast etc. Australia is not an op that will achive this ( though i agree with taking Darwin and Gloncurry) and the hook is also unlikely to achieve this.
 
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by John 3rd »

Raiding PH is not my idea of FUN in mid-42!  Wonder what it might be like in early-42?  BK--That is a downright interesting thought.  Another could be to move the AOs to Canton, refuel and sweep around to the east of Hawaii hoping to catch something.  I'm going to let that thought perculate some.
 
Thanks Dan.  Well said and utterly on-target.  Game is supposed to be fun and (for me and other Japanese players) WILD!
 
Since this game moves SOOOOO slowly, I find myself thinking a TON about how I'm going to make Michael sob like a baby.  [:D]  The funny thing is in playing him it would be like Dan or Paula Layne and me hooking up for a campaign again.  We know each other so well, it would be quite the match where each player can very easily get into the other's head.  FUN!
 
PS  Dan stop breaking my double-secret operational security!  The TF to grab Tahiti will hit it in two days, Auckland's is three days away, and the Paratroop drop on San Diego is scheduled in FOUR days.  Had to cancel the DC Strike from KB-14 (12 CV and 6 CVL) due to wanting to be more realistic...
 
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by ComradeP »

Raiding PH is not my idea of FUN in mid-42! Wonder what it might be like in early-42?

WITPPL did it in a game with Bluebook, a January 1942 invasion of PH. The first time, some glitch resulted in his PB's getting creamed by CD guns whilst most of his guys got ashore. He tried it again with the latest patch and his big ships went down rather quickly this time.

By the way, what does your team's long term CV/CVL/CVE building/conversion strategy look like, or regular shipbuilding strategy? The overview of current ships under construction on page 12 didn't include commentary.

At this time, a significantly larger KB and more carriers under construction favour the Japanese. Additional CV's for the Allies will probably speed up their steamroller starting in late 1943/early 1944, but we're not quite there yet.

A properly used Allied CV TF with this mod would probably be able to wreck havoc where it strikes, but an improperly used CV TF would simply turn into easy points for the Empire rather quickly. Knowing that 2 carriers have a reduced aircraft strength currently, I don't think they're more of a threat than in stock AE at this time.

As they've hardly done anything at all, they might be gathering somewhere to strike at an exposed target, but what qualifies as an exposed target? At this point, any reasonable amount of Japanese LBA will chew up the mediocre experience carrier wings. I'm not sure whether the mod gives the US CV's Wildcats from the start but if not, an attack at this point would still be fairly suicidal.

I'm not too sure about a PH raid, as whether it was worth it will depend on whether there were US CV's in the area and whether yours all came back to tell the tale. Losing AO's would also be costly. It might possibly be a better idea to keep KB around the DEI/PI and to use sort of a hornet's nest strategy at this time, where every hostile move into the area can be countered by a swarm of LBA and whatever KB's packing at the time.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

I consider PH crazy and you will loose 100 or so planes and if i did do it I would capture the non Oahu islands ( which IMHO is pretty easy and prob easier than a PH raid as you will have some Airfields and a base to work with ) and parks some army planes there to nuke PH ( sink the repairing ships) and hit any ships .CVs resuplying it. Then abandon in late 42. While risky the non CV losses do not matter , both this and Ceylon have 1 purpose , Lure his fleets to battle anything else is pointless and you will not lure him out with conservative actions. The best way is to do something risky eg Ceylon with a 2 Cv and some CVLs he will think you dont have enough and commit and then show KB1.

The question for people here :
What will bring his CVs (and BBs) out - since hes hoarding them ? Either bring them out or make him pay that he didnt.

Things imho that wont do this
West , North or NE Oz
Small hook in Burma.
The sweep around Hawaii ( though i do like it)

Things that might
Hawaii landing / raid. ( obviously get the shoals and put a Mavis there for recon first)
Land near Duthc Harbour / Achnorage
NZ and SE Oz.
Ceylon

all very risky but IMHO something like this is neccesary and such an action may lose on the ground .

This is not a normal game as the US has a lot more CV power that basically advances the pacific theater 1 year.

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Raiding PH is not my idea of FUN in mid-42!  Wonder what it might be like in early-42?  BK--That is a downright interesting thought.  Another could be to move the AOs to Canton, refuel and sweep around to the east of Hawaii hoping to catch something.  I'm going to let that thought perculate some.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by PaxMondo »

ORIGINAL: bklooste

...both this and Ceylon have 1 purpose , Lure his fleets to battle anything else is pointless and you will not lure him out with conservative actions. ...

I think in any scenario, this is IJN purpose for early 42 .... and like you I spend a lot of time trying to figure out the 'lures'. The most difficult Allied player is one who simply hunkers down and waits for '43. At that point his pilot experience is up, he has plenty of a/c with a lot more coming, and now he is trying to create the lure to get the IJN out to "play".

I guess it is what makes the game so intriguing.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

ORIGINAL: bklooste

...both this and Ceylon have 1 purpose , Lure his fleets to battle anything else is pointless and you will not lure him out with conservative actions. ...

I think in any scenario, this is IJN purpose for early 42 .... and like you I spend a lot of time trying to figure out the 'lures'. The most difficult Allied player is one who simply hunkers down and waits for '43. At that point his pilot experience is up, he has plenty of a/c with a lot more coming, and now he is trying to create the lure to get the IJN out to "play".

I guess it is what makes the game so intriguing.

Yep .

It has to be something that if he doesnt bring them out he looses something major... Sydney , Anchorage , PH etc I dont think some of these are takeable , but it has to be something that hurts and he doesnt expect or want to lose. Prob shutting down PH hurts a lot , you can shut the arifield down and bomb it to the ground and keep it that way with IJAAF planes making it useless till mid 43 but its risky. I like Ceylon but he may not come out to play.. Any other suggestions ... I think it should be unusual for shock value , becuase there is not much that can draw him if he doesnt want to come but if you annoy/shock him he may come and it means less reinforcements.

Here is an interesting one ... Hobart...

Pros : Easy
Completely cuts of eastern Oz.
Allies use it as a fuel base since Oz just sucks up all the fuel. If they are doing this the fuel alone may be worth it...
Means no Cvs can stay or repair in SE oz... that leaves Aukland , PH or West coast.
Nice deffensive terrain


Cons: Hard to hold/ supply like Hawaii so probably somethign that annoys him for 3-5 months then you need to pull it out.
DOes it trigger the spec reinforcements ?
Need to build AF up for battle with Melbourne.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by John 3rd »

You guys are proving that my aggressive reputation holds NOTHING compared to what you are talking about! 
 
I am not sure about this.  Woudl liek to have a better feel about Ken's playing style.  He has the Pacific.  Don't know how he is as an Allied player.  Thought the action around Pago Pago was his doing but he told us today that AJ moved his CVs there.  Cannot tell if this was discussed prior to it being done but it was not Ken who did it.
 
Don't think he is a Sir Robin player, however, have no real gage as to his inclinations. 
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

meh aggresive ,North Oz and New Caladonia every AAR does that and New Caladonia doesnt get you much except some forces the allies can isolate..[>:][>:]

John you know you want to take Ceylon and then have 8 armoured units racing around South India as a diversion for the hook [:D][:D] Kind of like the NZ diversion.

Ceylon was even planned historically it was just the cowardly army that bailed ( they did have Java and Bataan on their plate which you wont) ..

The fact he had 1 CV in Sydney , and put his planes on land tells us a bit.
- He doesnt intent to fight ( since he  hasnt grouped the CVs )
- By placing his still important planes on land and wasting them he doesnt expect or wont initiate an early CV conflict. If he did he would keep the planes....

There is a small chance the Pago Pago CVs were joining up with Sydney but you would be a better judge of that.

Not reinforcing PM tells us that
- He wants you to over expand ( prob with Nemos comments)  and hit a weak point when he is ready
- He is saving his forces for some crucial fights , prob in Oz starting with Darwin. (which is why i suggested  the recon)
- Any player who is going to try to stop you/ and actually fight  will reinforce PM and Rabaul .



My suggestions are more along the lines of if your an allied player what will it take for you to commit your CVs when your strategic plan is to sit on your butt till 43 and just push planes and infantry around and then filter out the too risky ones . 

Also our obectives are limited eg just seize some of the territory , lure the CVs , have a rough air war before he has trained pilots to attrite him and leave if needed. Every AAR has done this successfully ..

UndercoverGeek and another player took all the islands but PH.
Numerous landings at Ceylon which held most or all of the islands
Mogami ( in witp) even landed at the west coast and slugged it out.

I think Ceylon is the best he expects it ( which isnt good tactically ) but for us its a diversion that focuses his attention ( which may get him to show his fleet) , he has to send reinforcements to Ceylon ,South India ( if you get a couple of bases in Ceylon) , Oz ( after Darwin) and Burma . Which means the approaches to Burma will be weak and fall to our left hook ( and if he does reinforce it he will loose most of India from the landings in south India from Ceylon). If he beats you it will cost him a lot let him have his pyric victory. There is a small chance of a CV trap at Ceylon but with 3 CVs in the pacific thats unlikely.

Just doing the left hook doesnt achieve this he will simply rail in troops from all over India though it still may succeed . Hawaii would be my second choice ( leaving Oahu) and requires 3 Divisions but a lot of Naval and Army air support. in Andy Mcs AAR he reinforced it to 3 Divs and was taken with 5-6 divs in mid 42 , 3-4 divs should be enough in early 42 eg teh ones that took Singapore.


You need some shock and Awe Kaigun style..[8D] Who Dares Wins

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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

Just thinking maybe send a sub with a Glen near Hobart for a while if you see Tankers and Oilers you know its the allies Pacific fuel base and getting that fuel is worth a lot ..This normally happens in Mid 42 so can wait but bass straiight is a common patrol area so a small diversion every so often.
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And then there was one

Post by ny59giants »

Jan 5: We are down to just one base base in Malaya - Temuloh

ASW/Subs:
O20 misses the retreating transports 2 hexes SW of Bangkok after dropping off AA.

Carriers:
Mini-KB and KB2 ended up midway between Lautem and Koepang and will move to 1 hex NW of Koepang as the invasion force should arrive next trun.

Malaya/Burma:
Tavoy - The 55th Mountain Gun Regiment is targeted by 19 Blenheim, 2 Blenheim IF, and 15 Hudson from Rangoon. BFs are already in route from Malaya to Burma.
Taiping - The 28th Gurkha Brigade and then 112th RAF Base Force are targeted by 55 Sally. The 223 Group RAF is targeted by 38 Lily.
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 18820 troops, 173 guns, 146 vehicles, Assault Value = 697

Defending force 3044 troops, 9 guns, 10 vehicles, Assault Value = 56

Japanese adjusted assault: 368

Allied adjusted defense: 7

Japanese assault odds: 52 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Taiping !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
39 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
4046 casualties reported
Squads: 146 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 376 destroyed, 184 disabled
Engineers: 26 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (16 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 11 (11 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 10

Assaulting units:
14th Tank Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
41st Infantry Regiment
91st Naval Guard Unit
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
28th Gurkha Brigade
6th Indian Bde /36
11 Battery/3 HAA
223 Group RAF
109th RN Base Force /44
111th RAF Base Force
2nd ISF Base Force
137/155th Field Regiment
112th RAF Base Force
110th RAF Base Force /42

Sumatra:
Palembang - Zero escort in 81 Nell/Betty to hit the AF hard - Airbase hits 22, Airbase supply hits 3, Runway hits 47.

Borneo:[>:]

China: the cease fire officially ends on 1 Feb 42.
Shanghai - A-29A Hudson, DB-3M, and SB-III hit the port and sink an ACM.

Philippines: [>:]

SRA (East):
Lautem - landings commence (deliberate attack ordered for tomorrow)
Manado -
Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2336 troops, 15 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 88

Defending force 930 troops, 2 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 27

Japanese adjusted assault: 35

Allied adjusted defense: 7

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Manado !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
275 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 18 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
Bandasan SNLF
15th Naval Guard Unit
8th JNAF Coy

Defending units:
Manado Garrison Battalion
Manado Base Force

Notes/Plans:
Two more infantry regiments will join the other two at Temuloh tomorrow. Hopefully, in two turns this base will be captured and close out the Malaysian campaign. All in exactly one month.

Lautem will be deliberately attacked next turn with a landing on the end at Koepang.

Transports and other vessels are leaving Saigon and Camranh Bay to head for Mersing as the 6 DMW will arrive at Singapore tomorrow to sweep away the mines.

Imperial Guards Division will rest for a few days at Taiping before heading for Burma.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by John 3rd »

I love the 'shock and awe Kaigun-Style' quote!

Will give some serious thought to your comments and ideas. Think we'll definately ramp-up the recon and, perhaps, try to make him think we're doing something by using those Glens for Recon. Would like to find his shipping lanes...

Gonna be gone for half the day taking my family to the Colorado Aquarium so I'll jump back in later in the day.
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by Canoerebel »

What's the Colorado Aquarium?  A 25-gallon tank holding two trout and a minnow?
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by bklooste »

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I love the 'shock and awe Kaigun-Style' quote!

Will make a nice aar name...
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RE: 1-4-42

Post by Grit »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What's the Colorado Aquarium?  A 25-gallon tank holding two trout and a minnow?

It doubles as the Pick Your Own Lobster tank at Neptune's Oyster Bar.
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