A Japanese invasion of Hawaii

[Curtis Lemay]

You really believe that American scouting aircraft only flies 200 miles? If so, then how can you claim that Johnston Island is within spotting range of any Japanese in Hawaii since the Japanese are not supermen.

Dawn to 8:00am. How far can a recon plane get? And they would have to be sighted well before eight if any benefit would be expected.

There is no assurance that the weather and see state will be better south of Hawaii. Not to mention any fishing vessels or other vessels that may be encountered, all it takes is one radio message for an alert to be called.

That wasn't the case historically. Messages were disbelivied or "confirmation" was required.

If the carriers are not in port, then these ships would have to be recalled and then they could also be seen which would eliminate any surprise.

That would be determined at least a day in advance.

[RangerJoe]

You are giving the Japanese too many Superman powers. Bombing the ocean? Even when the Japanese positions have been marked by civilians? Those civilians would have signal fires started. If the Japanese were to kill the civilians, then Germany would be last on the US list and Japan would be first. There might not even be much of a draft because of all of the volunteers, many of whom would take souvenirs from the Japanese.

Civilians wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the troops or facilities. And if the US military is clueless, imagine how clueless the civilians will be!

How would the civilians be stopped? Killing them? Word would get out and then Japan might get completely wiped out.

But all of this is moot because I saw a documentary about how the USS Nimitz went back in time and almost destroyed the Kido Butai. Except in this scenario, they would not return but would wipe out the Kido Butai plus the Japanese destroyers. I mean, think of F-14s even without bombs but using their cannons on troop packed destroyers while the rest of the strike force attacks the Kido Butai in the dark! Then, especially if the ship had nukes, sailing to Japan and nuking Japanese cities!

[Curtis Lemay]

Winds are actually stronger above the surface which would impact the aircraft more. You can't make sure that the bombers would have an overnight radio to guide them in since it was only on for the fight of B17s coming in.

But the wind direction varies with altitude. They can find the optimim. The radio would be off only 6-7 hours. it would still guide them for the start and finish.

Flying to Maui unloaded means that there would have to be bombs, fuels, any parts for repairs needed, plus the ground crews and any equipment that they need. How does all of that get there? Unless you are having untrained Japanese Army infantry take care of the Japanese Naval bombers?

Delivered after the raid starts.

[Curtis Lemay]

Not all of the cargo ships are slow.

Yeah they are.

How are those port facilities and oil stocks going to get torched when all of the unmanned and unammoed AAA units will be manned and ready. Not to mention fighter and other aircraft waiting to attack the enemy, the American aircraft being guided by ground control with radar and ground observers available?

Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

[Curtis Lemay]

You are giving the Japanese too many Superman powers. Bombing the ocean? Even when the Japanese positions have been marked by civilians? Those civilians would have signal fires started. If the Japanese were to kill the civilians, then Germany would be last on the US list and Japan would be first. There might not even be much of a draft because of all of the volunteers, many of whom would take souvenirs from the Japanese.

Civilians wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the troops or facilities. And if the US military is clueless, imagine how clueless the civilians will be!

How would the civilians be stopped? Killing them? Word would get out and then Japan might get completely wiped out.

2400 Japanese soldiers would have no trouble keeping them away from the deployments and the facilities. These civilians are going to be more clueless than US military.

[RangerJoe]

Civilians wouldn't be allowed anywhere near the troops or facilities. And if the US military is clueless, imagine how clueless the civilians will be!

How would the civilians be stopped? Killing them? Word would get out and then Japan might get completely wiped out.

2400 Japanese soldiers would have no trouble keeping them away from the deployments and the facilities. These civilians are going to be more clueless than US military.

You never actually gave a breakdown of which Japanese ships and ground units not to mention where the ground crews and their supplies and equipment came from. So this are phantasms which are more easily dispersed than a phart.

You also underestimate American civilians of the time and in that area. They are not like you. If they saw Japanese troops, they would not be very clueless and some would understand Japanese.

[RangerJoe]

Winds are actually stronger above the surface which would impact the aircraft more. You can't make sure that the bombers would have an overnight radio to guide them in since it was only on for the fight of B17s coming in.

But the wind direction varies with altitude. They can find the optimim. The radio would be off only 6-7 hours. it would still guide them for the start and finish.

Flying to Maui unloaded means that there would have to be bombs, fuels, any parts for repairs needed, plus the ground crews and any equipment that they need. How does all of that get there? Unless you are having untrained Japanese Army infantry take care of the Japanese Naval bombers?

Delivered after the raid starts.

If the wind changes speed and direction for the aircraft, how are they going to know that? The stars? How well trained in celestial navigation are these aircrews? How far off course would these hopelessly lost aircraft become? Flight 19 . . .

[RangerJoe]

Not all of the cargo ships are slow.

Yeah they are.

How are those port facilities and oil stocks going to get torched when all of the unmanned and unammoed AAA units will be manned and ready. Not to mention fighter and other aircraft waiting to attack the enemy, the American aircraft being guided by ground control with radar and ground observers available?

Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

[Buckrock]

It occurs to me that they don't have to start 200 miles from Maui. They only have to be 200 miles from Oahu - which is where any scouting patrols would originate. Maui is already 115 miles from Oahu. So, they only have to start out about 100 miles from Maui - and get 100 miles away after.

Trade winds, by definition, are winds that fill the sails of trading vessels. That means surface winds. Nothing to do with aircraft. The Japanese could perform tests to find the optimum altitude for the mission in the months leading up to it.

Regardless, if they find they can't make the Oahu - Maui route. They can head straight to Maui instead.

In a worst case scenario, they could fly to Maui unloaded. That will extend their range greatly. Then they don't get to hit Pearl till the afternoon, though.

Also, note that Honolulu radio guided the carrier planes historically. That beacon would at least be available at the start and finish of the route.

I could tell you right now why Maui is probably going to be a bust for your plan and I'd be confident that you'd had no previous knowledge of the problems because you're don't appear to be doing much research as you go along. Instead everything will just work and if it doesn't, you'll just invent something else built on a quickie google search but it will be something that will definitely, absolutely work. And then when that gets shot down, you'll invent something else. And so it'll go.

Could you please supply those specific starting details of KB and the APDs that I asked for earlier? It'll be a lot easier to determine the worth of your Hawaii plan if its beginning is at least properly established. If you provide those details, I'll tell you about your Maui issues.

[warspite1]

I'd like to see any quote from me to that effect.



Making use of the experts at SPI.

warspite1

Your wish is my command - so much for the 'experts' at SPI. To be fair I don't think they necessarily got the rule wrong because they didn't understand WWII - they chose the rule as a game mechanic. Why you treat game rules (where often counter mix is dependent on cost, or rules are made in the name of game balance or playing time etc.) as neccessarily historically accurate is totally beyond me, but that whole thread evidenced a lack of your understanding of basic WWII knowledge.



The below is from a back and forth from August 2020

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

And, all they have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve.

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Why is that then? How do you know that will definitely happen?

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Every other European country did the exact same thing.


Three things Curtis Lemay: No. They. Didn’t.

Link?

warspite1

Not sure why you can't simply use the search function or seem to be doubting what I wrote, but as you asked so politely, here is the link which confirms what I wrote is what you said:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... o#p4693473

Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:54 pm

[Aurelian]

Not all of the cargo ships are slow.

Yeah they are.

How are those port facilities and oil stocks going to get torched when all of the unmanned and unammoed AAA units will be manned and ready. Not to mention fighter and other aircraft waiting to attack the enemy, the American aircraft being guided by ground control with radar and ground observers available?

Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

And glory seeking IJN fighter pilots woud not be escorting anything. Against the Bushido code of attack. They would chase incoming fighters.

[RangerJoe]

Yeah they are.



Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

And glory seeking IJN fighter pilots woud not be escorting anything. Against the Bushido code of attack. They would chase incoming fighters.

Then, who knows what will happen. A-20s, B-25s, and B-17s with no bombs but lots of extra M2s put into their noses to attack the Japanese bomber formations? Not to mention those bombers sneaking in just before dawn to attack the Japanese held airfields which would have no AA capabilities other than what the soldiers would have. You know, those Army soldiers working on the Navy aircraft while, and astonishingly at the same time, guarding the area and keeping American civilians away from the airfield. Unless they have killed the civilians which would include ethnic Japanese!

[Curtis Lemay]

Not sure why you can't simply use the search function or seem to be doubting what I wrote, but as you asked so politely, here is the link which confirms what I wrote is what you said:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... o#p4693473

Sat Aug 29, 2020 12:54 pm

So, I corrected it in my next post. You're so petty.

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 7#p4693427

[Curtis Lemay]

It occurs to me that they don't have to start 200 miles from Maui. They only have to be 200 miles from Oahu - which is where any scouting patrols would originate. Maui is already 115 miles from Oahu. So, they only have to start out about 100 miles from Maui - and get 100 miles away after.

Trade winds, by definition, are winds that fill the sails of trading vessels. That means surface winds. Nothing to do with aircraft. The Japanese could perform tests to find the optimum altitude for the mission in the months leading up to it.

Regardless, if they find they can't make the Oahu - Maui route. They can head straight to Maui instead.

In a worst case scenario, they could fly to Maui unloaded. That will extend their range greatly. Then they don't get to hit Pearl till the afternoon, though.

Also, note that Honolulu radio guided the carrier planes historically. That beacon would at least be available at the start and finish of the route.

I could tell you right now why Maui is probably going to be a bust for your plan and I'd be confident that you'd had no previous knowledge of the problems because you're don't appear to be doing much research as you go along. Instead everything will just work and if it doesn't, you'll just invent something else built on a quickie google search but it will be something that will definitely, absolutely work. And then when that gets shot down, you'll invent something else. And so it'll go.

Could you please supply those specific starting details of KB and the APDs that I asked for earlier? It'll be a lot easier to determine the worth of your Hawaii plan if its beginning is at least properly established. If you provide those details, I'll tell you about your Maui issues.

The cruising speed of the Betty is 196mph. The distance to Oahu is 2715 miles. That works out to a 13.85 hour flight. Since they have 315 miles of slack, they can endure 315/13.85 = 22.7 mph headwind for the duration. That's the average component of the wind that is exactly in the 12 O'Clock direction for the entire flight. Using a Mavis, they can fly to French Frigate Shoals a day in advance (I think they did that anyway - resupplied by submarine) to check for the best altitude, wind-wise. One of the three options will be doable and they can decide on the spot.

Also, note that the ships with the ground crews only have to start out 100 miles out as well. They get there that much earlier.

[Curtis Lemay]

How would the civilians be stopped? Killing them? Word would get out and then Japan might get completely wiped out.

2400 Japanese soldiers would have no trouble keeping them away from the deployments and the facilities. These civilians are going to be more clueless than US military.

You never actually gave a breakdown of which Japanese ships and ground units not to mention where the ground crews and their supplies and equipment came from. So this are phantasms which are more easily dispersed than a phart.

Of course I have. They all come from the postponed Luzon operation.

You also underestimate American civilians of the time and in that area. They are not like you. If they saw Japanese troops, they would not be very clueless and some would understand Japanese.

Probably as many Japanese as Whites on the islands. And, yes they will be very clueless.

The Japanese pathfinders will know where the broadcast radios are and the telephone swichboard is. They will be high priority.

[Curtis Lemay]

Winds are actually stronger above the surface which would impact the aircraft more. You can't make sure that the bombers would have an overnight radio to guide them in since it was only on for the fight of B17s coming in.

But the wind direction varies with altitude. They can find the optimim. The radio would be off only 6-7 hours. it would still guide them for the start and finish.

Flying to Maui unloaded means that there would have to be bombs, fuels, any parts for repairs needed, plus the ground crews and any equipment that they need. How does all of that get there? Unless you are having untrained Japanese Army infantry take care of the Japanese Naval bombers?

Delivered after the raid starts.

If the wind changes speed and direction for the aircraft, how are they going to know that? The stars? How well trained in celestial navigation are these aircrews? How far off course would these hopelessly lost aircraft become? Flight 19 . . .

At least half the flight will be guided by Honolulu radio. And they have navigators on board.

[Curtis Lemay]

Not all of the cargo ships are slow.

Yeah they are.

How are those port facilities and oil stocks going to get torched when all of the unmanned and unammoed AAA units will be manned and ready. Not to mention fighter and other aircraft waiting to attack the enemy, the American aircraft being guided by ground control with radar and ground observers available?

Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war abilities. Their performance at Clark field is a better measure. And the port facilities and oil stores aren't going anywhere.

[Curtis Lemay]

Yeah they are.



Again, you're gifting the US with mid-war conditioning. Their performance on Luzon is a better gauge. And bombing the oil and facilities doesn't have to be done at low altitude. That blunts AAA. The Zeros will escort the Bettys.

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

And glory seeking IJN fighter pilots woud not be escorting anything. Against the Bushido code of attack. They would chase incoming fighters.

So what? That's probably even more effective.

[Curtis Lemay]

Bombing at a higher altitude reduces the effectiveness. Some AAA are better at certain ranges compared to other AAA. That is why there is a mix of AA weaponry. Zeros escorting Bettys? When their radios are pretty much ineffective? That just leaves them to be sitting ducks to the Zoom and Boom tactics that the Americans were already aware of.

And glory seeking IJN fighter pilots woud not be escorting anything. Against the Bushido code of attack. They would chase incoming fighters.

Then, who knows what will happen. A-20s, B-25s, and B-17s with no bombs but lots of extra M2s put into their noses to attack the Japanese bomber formations? Not to mention those bombers sneaking in just before dawn to attack the Japanese held airfields which would have no AA capabilities other than what the soldiers would have. You know, those Army soldiers working on the Navy aircraft while, and astonishingly at the same time, guarding the area and keeping American civilians away from the airfield. Unless they have killed the civilians which would include ethnic Japanese!

US bombers can't shoot down the Bettys. That needs fighters. And what few the US has left will be facing Zeros.

For sure, the oil stocks are going to get torched quickly. And that makes the whole thing worth it, no matter what else happens.

[Buckrock]

I could tell you right now why Maui is probably going to be a bust for your plan and I'd be confident that you'd had no previous knowledge of the problems because you're don't appear to be doing much research as you go along. Instead everything will just work and if it doesn't, you'll just invent something else built on a quickie google search but it will be something that will definitely, absolutely work. And then when that gets shot down, you'll invent something else. And so it'll go.

Could you please supply those specific starting details of KB and the APDs that I asked for earlier? It'll be a lot easier to determine the worth of your Hawaii plan if its beginning is at least properly established. If you provide those details, I'll tell you about your Maui issues.

The cruising speed of the Betty is 196mph. The distance to Oahu is 2715 miles. That works out to a 13.85 hour flight. Since they have 315 miles of slack, they can endure 315/13.85 = 22.7 mph headwind for the duration. That's the average component of the wind that is exactly in the 12 O'Clock direction for the entire flight. Using a Mavis, they can fly to French Frigate Shoals a day in advance (I think they did that anyway - resupplied by submarine) to check for the best altitude, wind-wise. One of the three options will be doable and they can decide on the spot.

Also, note that the ships with the ground crews only have to start out 100 miles out as well. They get there that much earlier.

So that's a no then.