ORIGINAL: paradigmblue
The only games I've played into 43 have been vs AI, so I'm not the best qualified to comment, but I'm not sure if I understand the complaints about allowing the non-historical first turn.
Yes, there are a lot of non-historical moves that the Japanese player can pull, including bombing the Saratoga at port. Yes, this is a blow to the allied player, but so was the historical Pearl strike. No matter how damaging the first 6 months of the war are - and they can be brutal for the allied player - it doesn't change the fact that by 1944 I'm not sure if it matters. In that year, the allied player receives the equivalent in reinforcements of the entire IJN. It's hard to see any gains that the Japanese player can make in 42 as anything more than relatively minor setbacks in 1944.
I do agree with Bullwinkle, however, that because the allied player has to wait so long to really contest the IJN, it can be demoralizing while the Japanese player runs roughshod over the map, especially because the Japanese player knows that they don't have to be cautious - they know that the allied player will not dare challenge the full KB until mid 43, allowing them to control the center of gravity of the game.
I've played two AI campaigns to 1945-46, but PBEM only to October 1943. I've played Japan against the AI for six months, long enough to see what the game looks like from that side in the expansion and economy set-up phase.
The problem under the design with your contention above is that, no matter how big the Allied reinforcements in 1944-45, to win the Allied player has to get an auto-vic. It's built in that way. To get an auto-vic in 1945 takes a 2:1 VP ratio.
The sources of VPs are destroyed planes, sunk ships, destroyed devices, held bases (in supply for added benefit), and strat VPs. Strat VPs can only be gained by the Allied player for destroyed industry in the HI. Of these wells of VPs, planes, ships, devices, and strat are "permanent" VPs that the other side can not regain once earned. Territory, however, can be flipped. And fully-developed territory in many cases with large, strategic targets such as Chungking, are worth massive numbers of VPs.
So what's the problem? It is true that 1944-45 Allied LCUs, especially armor, are fearsome and far exceed Japan's in quality. Note, however, that the loss ratio for gaining VPs is not 1:1 from the first move. Allied devices, less PI and Chinese types, are worth twice Japan's. And since the Allies must attack and attack and attack to win their losses tend to be pretty high when going against fully dug-in defenders. Allied replacement pools are fixed and cannot be gamed as Japan can with points.
Ships? Allied models in the late game are great. Better in every way than Japan's. But the sub war is not modeled well IMO; only a fraction of historic results are ever achieved by an Allied player. Japan players even turn off a great number of merchants early, never to be built, because the merchant marine is essentially safe from submarine devastation. Japan will lose much of its combatant core in 1944-45 in the normal course of a game, but many AARs show the KB still scurrying around deep in the rear in 1945, fully outfitted with 3rd gen air wings, and able to fly full sortie counts due to the game's non-modeling of av gas.
Planes? Japan can produce hordes. Yes, in somewhat historical numbers, but six years into the game's life the model mix and R&D tactics have been nailed down to a high degree of perfection. Every model in the game is there because Japan--in some cases stupidly--built it. In the game no JFB builds but a fraction of the array, thus saving massive amounts of resources and streamlining the late-war air force. Pilot quality, again due to training being funded by supply and not petroleum, stays at high, competitive levels, very unlike the real war's record of boys taking flight with only a few hours of flight school. The Allies, with fixed pools, must ration air power until very late else nothing be left for the strategic phase.
So that leaves land. Bases for VPs and bases for strategic bombing. A huge piece of an auto-vic VP total. And here is where the current level of 1942 mania comes home to roost. Because the further Japan can push the Allies back in the first year the longer it takes the Allies to just get back to battery, to get ready to wage the historic war. And the game's design in its prep point system presumes the Allies are NOT starting back from east of Midway in 1943, or from Juneau, or from Delhi, or from Perth. Prepping for a landing takes the best part of three months. On island battles with auto-shock attacks failing to have 100% prep, or at least something in the 70s, will cripple an ID for months even if the Allies win. And there aren't enough IDs until very late to run multiple axes across CentPac or up from the south. In reality did it take three months to plan a landing? No. Look at the record from Kwajalein to the Marianas. Six months. A vast expanse of ocean and many landings. It's do-able in the game if the Allies start from semi-historic lines. It's about impossible if 1943 is spent, once amphib ships are gained, just getting back Canton, and Baker, and fighting a huge Japan air presence in the Suva/Noumea theater. And with the over-powered Netty torpedo models in the game, without amphibs you're meat. X-anything ships unload far too slowly to get the job done.
Unless bases in range, either on the Pacific side or the China side, are taken, built, and supplied the strat war portion never happens. That is the true goldmine of VPs, and Japan has to prevent it at all costs if they plan to ride out the calendar and hold the Allies away from an auto-vic. And yeah, it's a lot easier to hold the Allies off if they have to spend 1942-43 pushing Japan out of India, or Oz, or Hawaii. The early game drives the late game. Over six years JFBs have learned to take the perimeter to fantasy places because even if they lose those land forces they still win the time game. For the AFB time is the relentless task-master. Every day he has to try to claw a little bit west, closer to where the 4Es can finish the job. That's historical. But the game's design in many aspects did not assume he'd start 1943 from where even very good players find themselves. The design is 7-8 years old now. But the player community has six years of experience. In short, 1942 really, really, REALLY matters.
