ORIGINAL: Lowpe
I agree with almost everything you say here, with the exception of the economy. The problem is you misconstrue what I say.
I am not arguing against a lockdown.
Got it. Sorry if I misunderstood your thinking..
Two areas I do disagree with you:
I have not seen pro-lockdown proponents address the effects of a lockdown in increased deaths let alone in other areas.
I'm not sure what you mean. In the interview with Neil Ferguson he expressed clearly that without a lockdown after cases were already high in a population excess deaths due to medical overload would be higher both for Covid patients and for others with medical needs, who would not have access to hospital services.
If you mean lockdowns causing excess deaths in current lockdowns, we have to remember that the number of Covid deaths are caused by social distancing being in place (and so lower than they would have been), to whatever degree it is in each area, and that deaths to other causes may rise in some areas and fall in others, (as I've posted about pollution and road fatalities).
I've seen a number of studies showing the economic impact on mental health will not be good, but countries are starting to also put more in place to protect those people. We'll see.
I have a lifetime of experience in small business. I literally know hundreds of business owners across all sectors. To say the economy will snap back except for maybe travel is naive. but well intended.
My wife runs a relatively small business, and we've had many a discussion about how that will work. I didn't mean to imply that travel was the only sector that will be tough, but actually used that as one that might suffer the most.
Hospitality, restaurants and bars will be hard hit unless outside options create space to use. Factories may also have a hard time as we've seen with the meat industry, depending on type of floor they run.
Shopping, malls and other physical store spaces may suffer as internet shopping will still be available. People though do want to get out, and when malls opened in a medium sized city a few weeks ago in Brazil they were thronged. I think human nature will bring people quickly back to old habits and patterns.
My thinking is not that it will immediately go back to normal but that if a business that is closed wants to open, they will call previous laid off staff and attempt to hire them back. If they get some cash from a stimulus package they can pay staff until business picks up in a month or so as things open further. If those staff have cash they can buy products, food and other services and it all starts to regenerate and feed back positively.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
; Julia Child