ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
ORIGINAL: ColinWright
Why on earth should a player know precisely what the odds are that his move will be severely affected by interdiction? Were real-life generals privileged with this information?
They won't know easily. But they can know if they get out their calculators and grind through the figures - for every move of every unit. And there's bound to be some who will - making it necessary for everyone else if they want to keep up. So we can kiss that "easier to use" thing goodby...
Curtis, you need to take a reality check here. I'm a pretty good -- and infamously diligent -- TOAW player. I can think of one opponent I've played who was clearly better at this game than myself -- and I can take DAYS to actually execute a turn. That's probably the main reason I usually do quite well -- I am careful to consider everything from all angles.
If anyone would actually work out what the specific odds would be on interdiction happening in a specific hex on a specific turn it would be me. And yet I don't; how could I? Do you?
This isn't what happens. Let me pleasure Rhinobones and once again refer to Seelowe.
In Seelowe the Briton is subjected to varying but usually heavy levels of German interdiction. When I'm the Brits, do I ever calculate the odds of being hit in a particular hex on a particular turn?
No -- of course not. I start making moves -- usually with unimportant or distant units -- and see how the weather is this turn, so to speak. Then I modify my behavior accordingly. If it looks like Jerry's being frisky today, I avoid sending any artillery units by rail. If things don't look too bad, I try running one part of the way south and see what happens.
Etc. I'm not even sure I could calculate the odds in a given hex. But it's academic -- I wouldn't try.
And yet, in pursuit of your argument, you will seriously assert that if the mechanism becomes even more opaque, that there are people who will seriously start trying to crunch the numbers -- assuming the numbers are even there to crunch. Is there any way for a player to calculate precisely what the odds are of being interdicted in a specific hex? Then too, why would knowing this number with precision affect one's decision? After all, there is the minor consideration of just how important it is that one make the move. If one has to make it, one will just take one's chances whether you know the odds are something like one in two, or know that there's actually a 57.31204% chance. If one can avoid moving when the weather's that bad, one probably will.
The precision of that damned number that may or may not be obtainable and that no one actually ever works out isn't the critical factor in the first place.
Out of sheer pigheaded stubbornness, you are drifting into absurdity. No one does this.
'...But they can know if they get out their calculators and grind through the figures - for every move of every unit. And there's bound to be some who will - making it necessary for everyone else if they want to keep up. So we can kiss that "easier to use" thing goodby...'
Every statement in that passage is untrue.
