NON-PH Openings

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Bullwinkle58
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The solution is simple: tie extra reinforcements with the VP ratio rather than an arbitrary line on the map.

If the Japanese are massively outplaying the Allies in terms of VP's, then replacement rates of specific Allied devices and airframes increases by a percentage. These devices/airframes would be those being sent to Europe (IOW: overwhelmingly American squads/devices/airframes)

Make the relationship between VP's and extra reinforcement % exponential, so that massive Japanese success over and above what is historical leads to massive Allied reinforcement, but mildly better Japanese performance makes little impact.

This has interesting ramifications for Japanese strategy. Big VP gains (f.e taking China ) that currently throw Japan buckets of VP's cheaply would have a strategic ramifications - the Allies would get more material to regain the lost VP's.

How is this do-able without changes to the EXE?
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: Kull

There are a million alternatives, but there's only one WitP-AE. And it does not have a non-US entry option, nor modified reinforcement options, nor conditional VPs or any of the many otherwise good ideas presented in this thread. I brought up the Soviet Activation option not because it's a realistic idea, or even a particularly good one, but because it's part of the existing game structure, and thus a feature that could be utilized to address the very real issue Bullwinkle has identified.

It is an interesting idea, and one that could be executed without code changes. Just an agreement that Japan will march across the border if and when.

I've played late-war Soviets and it's interesting. Not so sure about 1942-43 Soviets. One thing every AFB sees is the shuffle-a-thon in the Soviet OOB in those years. Every week it seems stuff comes , stuff goes to reflect the events on the Eastern Front. There are a couple of periods where a significant portion of the Far Eastern OOB is missing in action.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

In short, 1942 really, really, REALLY matters.

That all makes sense Bullwinkle.

I think a lot of the problem stems from the flexibility of the Japanese war machine vs the Allies, and I think you're on to something when you talk about how Japanese players have been able to utilize the economic tools available to them to a level that was probably not originally thought possible. Bottom line, the WitP the Allies are asked to fight an enemy that - in the hands of a competent Japanese player - is much more powerful than it's historical counterpart, and must do so with only it's own historical tools.

I think that is why I'm so comfortable with what-if scenarios and mods in WitP:AE - the game stops being a historical simulation the moment the Japanese rush a carrier or new airframe, so adding other non-historical elements doesn't seem like it's tarnishing the purity of the game as it does to others. I have respect for their position, but I don't share it.

What would you think about more flexibility for the allies through tools like Juan's aircraft mod? I'm thinking a system that actually has all the Indian, American and Australian emergency reinforcements starting in the game, but that has them under a static HQ, so PP needs to be paid to release them - giving the allied player additional forces but making them pay the PP cost. A small increase in PP per turn could be added as well, as most allied players are short on PP for what they want to do in 42 as it is.

Honestly, just switching the reliable USN torpedoes toggle to "ON" might solve a lot of the sub problems. I agree that the USN subs aren't as effective as they were historically, and by the time the USN torpedoes are reliable in game, Japan's ASW capability is such that they can't be put to proper use. Starting the game with reliable USN torpedoes gives them a window to actually interdict shipping in a more historic manner.

I'm just spitballing here, partially because I'm still working on my (very) non-historical, and frankly implausible alternate history mod, and I'm looking for ideas, and partially because I find it fascinating how good players can bend the framework of a game to their advantage. While I'm primarily and AFB, I have a huge amount of respect for the JFBs that eke out their results from an industry design that is byzantine at best.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: Kull

There are a million alternatives, but there's only one WitP-AE. And it does not have a non-US entry option, nor modified reinforcement options, nor conditional VPs or any of the many otherwise good ideas presented in this thread. I brought up the Soviet Activation option not because it's a realistic idea, or even a particularly good one, but because it's part of the existing game structure, and thus a feature that could be utilized to address the very real issue Bullwinkle has identified.

It is an interesting idea, and one that could be executed without code changes. Just an agreement that Japan will march across the border if and when.

I've played late-war Soviets and it's interesting. Not so sure about 1942-43 Soviets. One thing every AFB sees is the shuffle-a-thon in the Soviet OOB in those years. Every week it seems stuff comes , stuff goes to reflect the events on the Eastern Front. There are a couple of periods where a significant portion of the Far Eastern OOB is missing in action.

I have active Soviets day one in my mod, and it adds an interesting dimension to the game. You're right though, unit withdrawals must be turned off to prevent a significant fraction of your forces from withdrawing from the theater.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

I've played late-war Soviets and it's interesting. Not so sure about 1942-43 Soviets. One thing every AFB sees is the shuffle-a-thon in the Soviet OOB in those years. Every week it seems stuff comes , stuff goes to reflect the events on the Eastern Front. There are a couple of periods where a significant portion of the Far Eastern OOB is missing in action.

Early-war Active Soviets would be an enormous pain for the Japan player. All those defacto pilot training units in Manchuria & Japan will now have to actually fight. The Sea of Japan will swarm with "good torpedo" Soviet subs (and nasty little DDTFs). All those good quality land units being pulled from Manchuria to support distant ops will be sorely missed. Plus, unless I'm mistaken, this will also reduce the China supply problem. And conversely, extensive land battles in Manchuria will suck up precious supply from the Home Islands that would otherwise be devoted to perimeter-extension ops.

And there's probably a lot more. The back yard would no longer be a safe haven.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by wdolson »

I don't recall for sure if it changes with Soviet activation, but the USSR does not share supply with China before activation. I have a vague memory that China never gets supply from the USSR.

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Mundy
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Mundy »

I figure that's correct. I'm an expert at losing China, and when the Chinese start losing lots of major cities, the well dries up pretty quickly.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Lokasenna »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

The solution is simple: tie extra reinforcements with the VP ratio rather than an arbitrary line on the map.

If the Japanese are massively outplaying the Allies in terms of VP's, then replacement rates of specific Allied devices and airframes increases by a percentage. These devices/airframes would be those being sent to Europe (IOW: overwhelmingly American squads/devices/airframes)

Make the relationship between VP's and extra reinforcement % exponential, so that massive Japanese success over and above what is historical leads to massive Allied reinforcement, but mildly better Japanese performance makes little impact.

This has interesting ramifications for Japanese strategy. Big VP gains (f.e taking China ) that currently throw Japan buckets of VP's cheaply would have a strategic ramifications - the Allies would get more material to regain the lost VP's.

How is this do-able without changes to the EXE?

It's not, unless you play a scenario that you are able to modify when agreed upon with your opponent (i.e., in a non-stock slot).
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Aye. So the status quo for the Americans should reflect an astounded CinC and a heavily modified (read: increased) commitment for Pacific deployment of forces. MUCH greater than the pre-war / early war default "Europe First" approach was.

Not "should".....it does. The forces in game - and their early war arrival - reflect the results of the "King shift".
I think it should be possible for the arrival times for American LCU, ships, etc. to extend if the Japanese do not capture as much of the American lines of communication / threaten the shipping lines to Australia, etc. What if the Japanese threat to the American homeland was not so acute? Would King have gotten his fast-tracked Pacific reinforcements?

Suppose the Japanese focused on the British Empire, the DEI and China, leaving the PI, SoPac and Hawaiian islands alone? I could see an argument for the Europe First crowd holding sway and a less than historical commitment to the Pacific until the Third Reich was put paid to.

There are a million alternatives, but there's only one WitP-AE. And it does not have a non-US entry option, nor modified reinforcement options, nor conditional VPs or any of the many otherwise good ideas presented in this thread. I brought up the Soviet Activation option not because it's a realistic idea, or even a particularly good one, but because it's part of the existing game structure, and thus a feature that could be utilized to address the very real issue Bullwinkle has identified.

Kull, extended arrival times for LCUs or ships (per my comments above)-as a VP ratio-could be as easily implemented as an increasing % Soviet activation. They're both part of the 'existing game structure', but not in the way we're suggesting them. Unless you're talking about literally rolling dice outside of the game and applying that RL die roll to the game. Is that what you were suggesting?

You're right-there are a million alternatives, modifications, suggestions for WITP-AE II, what-ifs, "gee, I wish I had a..." and so forth. With all due respect, I think these detract from the suggestion of the thread owner to discuss merits of opening moves.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: paradigmblue

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

In short, 1942 really, really, REALLY matters.

That all makes sense Bullwinkle.

I think a lot of the problem stems from the flexibility of the Japanese war machine vs the Allies, and I think you're on to something when you talk about how Japanese players have been able to utilize the economic tools available to them to a level that was probably not originally thought possible. Bottom line, the WitP the Allies are asked to fight an enemy that - in the hands of a competent Japanese player - is much more powerful than it's historical counterpart, and must do so with only it's own historical tools.

I think that is why I'm so comfortable with what-if scenarios and mods in WitP:AE - the game stops being a historical simulation the moment the Japanese rush a carrier or new airframe, so adding other non-historical elements doesn't seem like it's tarnishing the purity of the game as it does to others. I have respect for their position, but I don't share it.

What would you think about more flexibility for the allies through tools like Juan's aircraft mod? I'm thinking a system that actually has all the Indian, American and Australian emergency reinforcements starting in the game, but that has them under a static HQ, so PP needs to be paid to release them - giving the allied player additional forces but making them pay the PP cost. A small increase in PP per turn could be added as well, as most allied players are short on PP for what they want to do in 42 as it is.

Honestly, just switching the reliable USN torpedoes toggle to "ON" might solve a lot of the sub problems. I agree that the USN subs aren't as effective as they were historically, and by the time the USN torpedoes are reliable in game, Japan's ASW capability is such that they can't be put to proper use. Starting the game with reliable USN torpedoes gives them a window to actually interdict shipping in a more historic manner.

I'm just spitballing here, partially because I'm still working on my (very) non-historical, and frankly implausible alternate history mod, and I'm looking for ideas, and partially because I find it fascinating how good players can bend the framework of a game to their advantage. While I'm primarily and AFB, I have a huge amount of respect for the JFBs that eke out their results from an industry design that is byzantine at best.

There have been few (or no?) mods that aid the Allies. The major what-if mods serve to make the IJN even more dominant and we see them romping all over the WC in AARs. I don't know why there haven't been more Allied-focused mods. Probably few Japan players would paly against them.

Juan's planes idea is a good one, but it sort of had a life in the modder sub-forum and then seemed to fade. Your idea of making the emergency packages buyable has merit too, but only if the PP budget is increased as you say. 50/day in stock with no starting pool doesn't get it done now. I played one AI campaign with Allied daily PP at 70 and it was a very different game.

However, I have also experimented with dud torpedoes OFF and it's a no-go for me. Too many boats in Manila, too short transits to known invasion gotta-haves for Japan. Carnage on the transports.

That said, the Allied sub war is the poorest part of the game IMO. Was in WITP too. Not a criticism of the dev teams, but GG has always loved airplanes and it shows. The AE team's charge was not wholesale re-writes and their changes to sub, especially zones, were great. But the sub war models just don't work to make this warfare community the dominant force it was in RL. Taken on balance, submarines had more to do with defeating Japan than airplanes did. In the game they're punks.

There are several main areas where the game models fail:

1. DL drives all. There are no sensor models in AE; DL stands in for many things. But the DL model is built to service surface ships. There is no sub-model to account for how submarines operate. In the war the routine was to patrol at PD and hunt at night. The game doesn't have a DL for submerged. In the game DL persists across 12-hour phases. In RL a dived submarine would clear datum in minutes on an unknown course and speed and within an hour present the same initial detection problem again to the enemy. In the game a sub is found, hit, a DL of 10 assigned, and it's worthless for that day.

2. Initial detection and attack ratios are too high. In RL, certainly from 1943 onward, the most typical method of detecting a USN sub was to have a merchant in company explode and burn. Most severe damagings and sinkings by ASW were in response to a sub which made itself known, not one detected before the attack. The game has randoms for this; they're too high.

3. Again, by randoms and some sort of coefficient system, the game assigns the sub a target. Far too many times it's an escort. Up to half the time in my experience. Look at targets sunk in the official post-war records. Look at escort versus merchant ratios. In the game code the sub almost always gets only one attack per turn. Most escorts have high maneuver ratings. The one attack usually misses and the sub now has a DL of 10 mostly. It's useless unless moved and it re-acquires a new TF. This happens rarely. Most of my subs, if they get in an attack per patrol, only get one. Again, read patrol reports.

4. By far the biggest factor in the limp sub results is the attack code. Each sub fires at one ship in its TF in almost all occasions. In RL, once a convoy of nay size was found and the escorts sorted out, multiple ships were targeted in the initial spread. If the convoy was large enough the sub would spin to bring to stern tubes to bear as well. After radar was installed, a night attacker could also attack, evade, end-around, and re-attack farther up the track. The game has none of this. If you want to see perhaps the best example of what I'm talking about, read the MOH citation for USS Parche and CO "Red" Ramage.

5. The USN sub war leaned heavily on intel intercepts, far more than are available in the game. They sank or helped sink 11 IJN carriers for example. Even half that in an AE game would find JFBs howling. But that's the history.

Almost everything affecting the sub war is hidden in the EXE unfortunately. The one major factor that isn't is the dud rate. The "healing" dates and percentages are hard-coded, but the initial dud rate is exposed in the editor. Lokasenna and I discussed a mod where by the historic dud rate reduction--which was different by theater and intermediate commander--could be adjusted at a cost to the Allied player through the upgrade system. Under this, new Mk 14 devices would be created with faster down-steps in the dud rate. These new devices would be available only in new, interim upgrades that demanded an extra transit home and time in the yard or alongside the AS. This would serve to allow the Allied player to customize the sub force a bit. Some boats could be left as now in the front lines with the current dud rate trajectory through the fall of 1943 when dud rates flatline across the force. Other boats could be rotated home to accelerate the reduction in the dud rate by being taken off line for a period of a month to six weeks or so. The Japanese player would have no knowledge of if, when, or how many.

We haven't worked on this mod. If we play another game together we might. I don't think the editor work would be that bad. Tedious maybe, but not complex. Made easier by not being necessary for any new construction subs after the Great Healing date in September 1943.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


We haven't worked on this mod. If we play another game together we might. I don't think the editor work would be that bad. Tedious maybe, but not complex. Made easier by not being necessary for any new construction subs after the Great Healing date in September 1943.

I really like this idea. I stole it and just put it in Focus Pacific. I hope you don't mind!

The way I worked it in the editor was to create new Mk14 torpedo devices with a smaller dud rate. I then created submarine conversions for USN 1942 submarines to a version that uses this new Mk14 (which I named Mk14A simply for ease of identifying the different device). This sub upgrade takes 45 days, which I believe is a significant enough time that it creates some real choice for the allied player. Each of the classes retain their original stats, with the exception of the Mk14A upgrade. The Mark14A versions of the subs miss out on their class upgrades until mid/late 43, at which time they rejoin the upgrade path, as the dud rates are adjusted by then so the Mk14A conversion is no longer necessary.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: paradigmblue
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


We haven't worked on this mod. If we play another game together we might. I don't think the editor work would be that bad. Tedious maybe, but not complex. Made easier by not being necessary for any new construction subs after the Great Healing date in September 1943.

I really like this idea. I stole it and just put it in Focus Pacific. I hope you don't mind!

The way I worked it in the editor was to create new Mk14 torpedo devices with a smaller dud rate. I then created submarine conversions for USN 1942 submarines to a version that uses this new Mk14 (which I named Mk14A simply for ease of identifying the different device). This sub upgrade takes 45 days, which I believe is a significant enough time that it creates some real choice for the allied player. Each of the classes retain their original stats, with the exception of the Mk14A upgrade. The Mark14A versions of the subs miss out on their class upgrades until mid/late 43, at which time they rejoin the upgrade path, as the dud rates are adjusted by then so the Mk14A conversion is no longer necessary.

Q: what initial dud rate did you assign? It's the important one given how the reduction path is hard-coded.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


Q: what initial dud rate did you assign? It's the important one given how the reduction path is hard-coded.

I assigned the Mk 14 A a dud rate of 25%. Because it's a different device however, I don't know if the global dud rate will affect this device. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Mark 10s don't suffer from the hard-coded dud rate, do they?

Edit: In the devices screen, the Mk 14 starts with an 80% dud rate, and the Mk 10 starts with a 15% dud rate.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by AW1Steve »

2 Stupid questions. 1) why not enable the fleet subs to use MK 10's? 2) why didn't they enable the fleet boats to use the MK 10 in real life? Is there something different about the tubes? [&:]
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

2 Stupid questions. 1) why not enable the fleet subs to use MK 10's? 2) why didn't they enable the fleet boats to use the MK 10 in real life? Is there something different about the tubes? [&:]

Without a lot of research I can't say. But I'd speculate:

1. Lack of inventory and/or production line shut down.
2. Inability of the Mk10 to converse with the TDC. S-boats didn't have TDCs as I recall. They used the old "banjo" and "Is-Was" manual appliances to work out the firing solution.
3. Much smaller warhead.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: paradigmblue
ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


Q: what initial dud rate did you assign? It's the important one given how the reduction path is hard-coded.

I assigned the Mk 14 A a dud rate of 25%. Because it's a different device however, I don't know if the global dud rate will affect this device. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Mark 10s don't suffer from the hard-coded dud rate, do they?

Edit: In the devices screen, the Mk 14 starts with an 80% dud rate, and the Mk 10 starts with a 15% dud rate.

You might want to re-look at that 25%

6.4.2.1 NOTE ON TORPEDO DUDS
In January 1943, all torpedoes with a dud rate of greater than 49 have their dud rates reduced
by 20. In September 1943, all torpedoes with an adjusted dud rate greater than 20 have their
dud rates lowered to 10. Allied torpedoes were notoriously inefficient in the early stages of the
Pacific War, and this rule reflects their slow but steady improvement over the years.

The first hard-coded reduction in 1/43 is a hard number of points: 20. The second is a variable amount to the hard floor of 10.

So a beginning rate of 25 skips the 1/43 healing altogether. If you were to pick something between the current 80 and your 25--say, 60--then on 1/43 you come down to 40 on the modded boats and stay there until 9/43 when they go to 10 with the rest. Go with 50 and you mod to 30. Etc.

My guess is the database has a data field to ID a device as a torpedo and thus apply the EXE's hard-coded reductions. Note that these reductions apply to all torpedoes, not just the Mk 14, and not to just submarine torpedoes. They also heal up the woeful Mk13 air-dropped fish.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by wdolson »

I believe the Mark 10 was long out of production when the war started and the supply was used by the old DDs and S boats. When they were gone, they were gone. By the end of 1942 the S-boats were out of front line service and all the old DDs were being converted to some other use.

The Mark 10 was the same diameter as the Mark 14, but the Mark 14 was much longer. It would have required modifying the tubes to use the Mark 10s. By the time the bras became convinced the Mark 14 had problems, the Mark 10 was mostly out of service and what stocks did exist at the start of the war were mostly exhausted. Possibly some were scrapped when the torpedo carriers were taken out of service.

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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



So a beginning rate of 25 skips the 1/43 healing altogether. If you were to pick something between the current 80 and your 25--say, 60--then on 1/43 you come down to 40 on the modded boats and stay there until 9/43 when they go to 10 with the rest. Go with 50 and you mod to 30. Etc.

My guess is the database has a data field to ID a device as a torpedo and thus apply the EXE's hard-coded reductions. Note that these reductions apply to all torpedoes, not just the Mk 14, and not to just submarine torpedoes. They also heal up the woeful Mk13 air-dropped fish.

I think this should still be OK - because the new device has a dud rate of 25%, they won't receive the 1/43 dud rate reduction, because their dud rate is not higher than 49%. However, they will still receive the 9/43 dud rate reduction, as their adjusted dud rate is higher than 20.

So for these subs, the progression would look like this:

Start of game dud rate: 80%
1/42 Mk 14A conversion dud rate: 25% (which is still higher than any other sub torpedo in the game IIRC)
1/43 healing dud rate: 25% (No change)
9/43 dud rate: 10%, all subs are now back in line with their stock dud rate.

Too me, reducing the dud rate from 80% to 60% - taking the odds of a working torpedo from 1 in 5 to 2 in 5 just isn't worth the yard time, even if on 1/43 that changes to 3 in 5. Taking the dud rate from 1 in 5 to 3 out of 4 definitely is.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: paradigmblue

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



So a beginning rate of 25 skips the 1/43 healing altogether. If you were to pick something between the current 80 and your 25--say, 60--then on 1/43 you come down to 40 on the modded boats and stay there until 9/43 when they go to 10 with the rest. Go with 50 and you mod to 30. Etc.

My guess is the database has a data field to ID a device as a torpedo and thus apply the EXE's hard-coded reductions. Note that these reductions apply to all torpedoes, not just the Mk 14, and not to just submarine torpedoes. They also heal up the woeful Mk13 air-dropped fish.

I think this should still be OK - because the new device has a dud rate of 25%, they won't receive the 1/43 dud rate reduction, because their dud rate is not higher than 49%. However, they will still receive the 9/43 dud rate reduction, as their adjusted dud rate is higher than 20.

So for these subs, the progression would look like this:

Start of game dud rate: 80%
1/42 Mk 14A conversion dud rate: 25% (which is still higher than any other sub torpedo in the game IIRC)
1/43 healing dud rate: 25% (No change)
9/43 dud rate: 10%, all subs are now back in line with their stock dud rate.

Too me, reducing the dud rate from 80% to 60% - taking the odds of a working torpedo from 1 in 5 to 2 in 5 just isn't worth the yard time, even if on 1/43 that changes to 3 in 5. Taking the dud rate from 1 in 5 to 3 out of 4 definitely is.

To be clear, you are correct on how the 25% would work. My point is do you want to go that low that early? Many Japan players would object. The MK 14 did have a dud problem--actually three of them that co-mingled and masked the problem for months. Some local commanders and some boat COs did local mods that solved or lessened the effects of one or more problems. This happened at different times, to different degrees, in different commands. The mod Lokasenna and I discussed was an attempt to model this a bit, to not make the dud rate a one-size-fits-all issue that has a force-wide switch on the two relevant dates.

An initial dud rate of 60% is very supported by evidence through 1/43 IMO. Give or take. Patrol reports had dirty data as much was abstracted from sonar impressions and limited visual observations (air flasks exploding on contact that were thought to be partial warhead detonations, etc.) My beef has always been the dud rate from January through September. Were it me I'd start at 60, go to 40, go to 10. But that's me.

In any mod you also have to consider if you allow one "special" upgrade (at cost), or two. The editor will allow either approach, but you'd need a second new Mk 14 device with the second upgrade's dud rate, as well as code in the upgrade specs for a second trip to the yards/tender.
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RE: NON-PH Openings

Post by paradigmblue »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
ORIGINAL: paradigmblue

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58



So a beginning rate of 25 skips the 1/43 healing altogether. If you were to pick something between the current 80 and your 25--say, 60--then on 1/43 you come down to 40 on the modded boats and stay there until 9/43 when they go to 10 with the rest. Go with 50 and you mod to 30. Etc.

My guess is the database has a data field to ID a device as a torpedo and thus apply the EXE's hard-coded reductions. Note that these reductions apply to all torpedoes, not just the Mk 14, and not to just submarine torpedoes. They also heal up the woeful Mk13 air-dropped fish.

I think this should still be OK - because the new device has a dud rate of 25%, they won't receive the 1/43 dud rate reduction, because their dud rate is not higher than 49%. However, they will still receive the 9/43 dud rate reduction, as their adjusted dud rate is higher than 20.

So for these subs, the progression would look like this:

Start of game dud rate: 80%
1/42 Mk 14A conversion dud rate: 25% (which is still higher than any other sub torpedo in the game IIRC)
1/43 healing dud rate: 25% (No change)
9/43 dud rate: 10%, all subs are now back in line with their stock dud rate.

Too me, reducing the dud rate from 80% to 60% - taking the odds of a working torpedo from 1 in 5 to 2 in 5 just isn't worth the yard time, even if on 1/43 that changes to 3 in 5. Taking the dud rate from 1 in 5 to 3 out of 4 definitely is.

To be clear, you are correct on how the 25% would work. My point is do you want to go that low that early? Many Japan players would object. The MK 14 did have a dud problem--actually three of them that co-mingled and masked the problem for months. Some local commanders and some boat COs did local mods that solved or lessened the effects of one or more problems. This happened at different times, to different degrees, in different commands. The mod Lokasenna and I discussed was an attempt to model this a bit, to not make the dud rate a one-size-fits-all issue that has a force-wide switch on the two relevant dates.

I see your point, and I probably could be convinced to go to a scheme that looks more like 80% -> 50% for boats that take the 45 day conversion available starting 1/42 (80% for boats that are not converted)-> 30% on January 1st 1943 for those boats (60% for boats that are not converted)-> 10% for all boats on 9/43. That stair-steps the improvement a little more, but still makes it worthwhile for the allied player to put their sub out of commission for 45 days for the upgrade.
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