Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I´ll go through the map tonight and see if I can find any Manpower targets in range. I take it by your comment that starting fires can damage industry too? I´ll have to read up on this in general.

My other option is of course to use them for regular 4E duties. Bombing troops and closing Airfields. I guess I´m stuck with this unless there is a good amount of Manpower in range.

"When a city is attacked, there is a chance that a fire can be started. A fire level shows up
when the mouse cursor is rolled over a base, just above the list of enemy industry. City attacks
on Manpower have a chance of creating high fire levels that will cause damage to any and
all industry. The fire level can get as high as 40 million, and is divided by 10 each 12 hours
as the fire is put out. Very high levels will continue to cause damage. The greater the target
manpower, the easier it is to get a fire storm going."

Page 152

B-29s are too precious to bomb troops or AFs IMO. Use the range. If you need to bomb AFs there are far cheaper options.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Burma

Lots of stuff happening here. Erik has indeed abandoned Prome and Bassein. A sound choice I think. I´ll of course take them both but Bassein will only get a very small garrison. Looking at the map I´m happy with the development in the North. I´ll have 2700 AV against this:

Defending force 17325 troops, 186 guns, 274 vehicles, Assault Value = 488

There is a possibility he has reinforced but I have bombed the stack heavily the last 3 days and no new units have been present. So I´m quietly optimistic! [:)]

In the south I´m pretty much at a loss on what to do. Eriks withdrawal kind of leaves me with only one option now and that is to cross into Prome with my main stack. He can then easily bottle me down again after that. I was contemplating going Bassein and then straight for Rangoon but ruled it out. It will be painfully obvious what I´m trying to do and the river crossing will take such a long time Erik can easily shift forces on the rail in time.

I´m toying with the option of going East out of Prome and then swing south and go for Pegu. This he won´t expect but will leave me very, very exposed. I´m certain there is opportunity here but I´m too inexperienced to see it! Anyone see anything obvious I´m missing?

Air war
Erik has withdrawn out of Rangoon and scattered his AF around the industrial centers. That won´t last long now that he knows he only needs 20 or so fighters at each base for protection. So he will soon be back in force. This time I will fight him when given the opportunity.

My bomber force is currently busy supporting the Northern operation.

You appear to have nearly isolated the three units between your hex NE of Taung Gyi and Lashio. Do you have anything to bring down that road that runs northward behind Lashio toward Mytkynia? Cutting off those three units and destroying them might draw some of his other units in.
There also seems to be a gap in his MLR where you have the
box that says Main Japanese defensive line[unless the box covers a unit. If you want to get away from Trench Warfare and into Manoeuver Warfare, you must look for gaps and roads where you can move faster than he can. Follow your fast movers with troops to hold the gap open and widen it when he starts to draw back his troops. Good Luck!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

"When a city is attacked, there is a chance that a fire can be started. A fire level shows up
when the mouse cursor is rolled over a base, just above the list of enemy industry. City attacks
on Manpower have a chance of creating high fire levels that will cause damage to any and
all industry. The fire level can get as high as 40 million, and is divided by 10 each 12 hours
as the fire is put out. Very high levels will continue to cause damage. The greater the target
manpower, the easier it is to get a fire storm going."

Page 152

B-29s are too precious to bomb troops or AFs IMO. Use the range. If you need to bomb AFs there are far cheaper options.

I can´t thank you enough for your help. Again you seem to have found a solution. [&o] This is looking very promising. I ran some tests in my sandbox. This is the result of 4 nights of manpower bombings by 100 B29s from 9000ft.

As you can see it certainly has had an impact. This is from very short range though (4). And I don´t know how much impact range will have on night bombings. Might be a different ruleset when dealing with manpower bombings though?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
You appear to have nearly isolated the three units between your hex NE of Taung Gyi and Lashio. Do you have anything to bring down that road that runs northward behind Lashio toward Mytkynia? Cutting off those three units and destroying them might draw some of his other units in.
There also seems to be a gap in his MLR where you have the
box that says Main Japanese defensive line[unless the box covers a unit. If you want to get away from Trench Warfare and into Manoeuver Warfare, you must look for gaps and roads where you can move faster than he can. Follow your fast movers with troops to hold the gap open and widen it when he starts to draw back his troops. Good Luck!

Unfortunately I only have an Indian BDE at Myitkyina. Its moving south to occupy Bhamo that Erik abandoned. Even if I could slide it in between the Chinese border and Lashio it would be too easy to dislodge.

I have 3 Chindit BDEs trying to slide between his forces by the white box. Its only 500 AV but in Jungle/Rough they are going to be a PITA to remove if they can get there. They all have 70-80 EXP. And the air force can alway lend a hand! [:)]

In two days I will attack the force South of Mandalay. Very important attack.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

I can´t thank you enough for your help. Again you seem to have found a solution. [&o] This is looking very promising. I ran some tests in my sandbox. This is the result of 4 nights of manpower bombings by 100 B29s from 9000ft.

As you can see it certainly has had an impact. This is from very short range though (4). And I don´t know how much impact range will have on night bombings. Might be a different ruleset when dealing with manpower bombings though?

Night bombing and range works the same as far as fatigue build-up as it ever did with other models. Longer rnage, more fatigue.

As another poster said, the B-29's range gives you the ability to spread out his CAP. He has to defend in depth and can't stack the front-line AFs or else he loses his economy slowly but surely. To get the range though you have to balance fatigue to both men and planes. There's never a free lunch in AE or the war.

Mix up your stirkes. don't get into patterns. Sometimes attack Manpower, but mix in other types. Don't attack three and rest one every week or something like that. Sometimes go deep, sometimes go very deep, then attack close. When you do the close mix in some other models of 4E to eat up some CAP. Etc. Be creative. But Fires can really mess up a town. You have about 7500 here. I've seen 400,000 in big cities in the HI late war. Really eats up the aircraft industry.

[JocMeister]

10th-13th May -44

This will be a short update. Pretty down right now after some terrible turns. [:(] Reader discretion is advised....

Burma
My attack of course fails. 2500 AV vs 500 (that has been suffering 2000 casualties from bombings the last few days). I get only a 1:1 and suffer 4000 losses against his 1000. I hate this game sometimes.

New Guinea
The KB arrives on scene to cover a reinforcement TF for Noemfoor. Excellent chance to strike with LBA at the landing! Wrong. Strikes refuse to fly as usual over 2 days. This is the gazillionth time this happens. Nothing gets me so p****d off as this does. 120 Hellcats on escort to cover 100 TB/DB and they still refuse to take off for some obscure reason.
[:@] I then give up and set up a sweep to eat up his LRCAP. I lose 50! P47s for 45 Zeroes. WTH? 12 excellent pilots are gone. I hate this game sometimes.

Strategic bombing
I tried to City bomb Manpower 14 hexes away or so. Bombers take off, "stray due to night" and not a single one arrives at the target. I hate this game sometimes.

Bah. [:@]

[JocMeister]

Strategic Bombing

No turn from Erik yesterday. Suited me fine as I didn´t really feel up for it after the last few days of events. This did give me some time to do some more testing in my sandbox. I might have been a bit hasty in proclaiming it almost impossible to hit HI/OIL directly. Fiddling around a little with ten 7 plane groups hitting OIL and HI from 26 and 28 hexes away respectively I´ve actually have gotten some pretty good results. It might actually be more beneficial to strike at them directly then to do manpower attacks. This because you never know what the MAN attack damages (if anything). You are just as likely to do no damage as to do a little damage on LI or actually destroy HI/OIL.

My best result so far was to actually knock down 120 OIL in 3 weeks of bombings. I would say thats not too shabby! This is in optimalconditions though. No flak, no NFs and 1000 AS at the departing base.

I´ll try to add some FLAK tonight and see how it affects it all.

[Historiker]

I destroyed about 100 oil in Magwe against him in a few weeks. The key is, that he mustn't defend the base with fithers. Even a few Ki-43 diminish the effect of night bombing drastically.
Without opposition, 8 Lysanders managed to 4 oil hits in one night bombing...

So spread out, change targets permanently and try to recon them. If you are certain all fighters in the base are those that defend it at night - hit the base at daylight. Hit the airfields if you like, or just the industry again.

This way, you force him to have one fighter group for each day and night protecting every single base. That will overstrech him, especially if you use your B-29 not just in one area.

[JocMeister]

Mathematical exercise

I was reading Speedys AAR. He is kind of in the same situation in Burma that I am. It got me thinking on whether or nots it will even be possible for me to break through. I´m not entirely sure how this works so correct me if I´m wrong (I probably am [:D]).

Lets say I have 10k AV and assume firepower wise that the Jap AV has the exact same firepower.
I need to get a 2:1 to have a chance of forcing a retreat? = Jap AV needed 5000
He has terrain bonus x2 = Jap AV needed 2500
He has high level forts enough to give x2 = Jap AV needed 1250

Is this how it works?

[Speedysteve]

I think in general you're right I would also add that for some reason my modified Assault AV is always reduced! I have changed every darn leader I can in the units and in HQ's but still my modified AV is lowered! Factor that in and you need a silly multiplier of the actual AV to get anywhere IMO.....I am bitter about it [;)] but it also frustrates that I could send over 700 bombers and 500 fighters attacking them nasty Nips and I'd be lucky if any attack caused 100 casualties.

[Speedysteve]

I also thought that Jungle gave a x3 bonus?

[JocMeister]

I think Jungle/Rough is x3. Jungle is "only" 2.

I´m starting to think it will be impossible for me to kick him out of Burma. For now I think I will have to settle for the fact that I´m tying down a good portion of the IJA. I will start prepping troops for a landing somewhere in 45 instead.

[Speedysteve]

That's exactly the position I'm at!

[Crackaces]

I have been successful at kicking out the IJ twice in Burma in 1942 seizing Thailand in 1943 ..

What is not being disscussed yet is that it is Adjusted AV not just AV that detemrines if units retreat. Thus, indirect fire is absolutely key in moving IJ stacks. I did not play with home rules against the use of 4E's ground bombing, so I found pounding away on Jungle hexes to be very useful. With both $e's and 2E's along with bombardment missions. NOT because of causulties .. but disruption. It appears to me that Disruption is treated like temporary disablement. My observations are that both firepower and Attack value are both adjusted for disruption. The problem is you do not see that in the air attack/bombardment combat results but when you do comitt to the direct attack you will see a "(-) disruption" in the ground attack.

Thus the secret is to get the IJ units into a state of high disruption. Note ... the IJ are a part of the denominator part of the equation. Each reduction of AV point through disruption takes 2 potential AV points away. So if a situation is adjusted 1:1 .. 50% disruption of a stack yields the 2:1 ... There is one other factor .. attrition. If you can pump in more troops and the IJ cannot then over time the position will weaken ... thus direct attacks bring in more direct attacks . bombing all the while to keep his units disrupted ..

my .02 ...

[Uncivil Engineer]

And the other factor is SUPPLY. If he ain't got none, his defenders won't last long. And there are many ways to reduce his supply:

Seaborne envelopment
Airborne envelopment
Bomb his LI
Bomb his HI
Bombard his shore installations
Sink his resupply convoys
Strategic bomb the home islands
Nuke Tokyo
etc. etc.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

And the other factor is SUPPLY. If he ain't got none, his defenders won't last long. And there are many ways to reduce his supply:

Seaborne envelopment
Airborne envelopment
Bomb his LI
Bomb his HI
Bombard his shore installations
Sink his resupply convoys
Strategic bomb the home islands
Nuke Tokyo
etc. etc.

Probably the most straightforward operational level method is to bomb airfields and ports with the thought that the supply requirement is set to X2 supply. These bases will suck up supply. However, I have found that I have had to use every one of my available platforms to hit my target hexes to make sure I get the effects needed to drive the IJ out.

[JocMeister]

Crackaces,

I had bombed away with almost 800 (Mostly 4Es) bombers for 5-6 days causing over 2000 casualties but still didn´t get (-)disruption on his troops. They still had an adjusted AV of x3 or something like that.

It seems to me that bombing troops in Jungle isn´t that effective. And its even less so if the troops have had time to build forts.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Since the topic of discussion is Burma, the focus should be on Rangoon. The entire Japanese defense of Burma is based on Rangoon. It's the only source of supply, since you control the coast and Magwe. Supply can come in through Pegu, but it's unlikely that that port has been enlarged (it's a waste of time and resources for Japan to enlarge it). The next source of supply south of Rangoon is Bangkok, but the road/rail network between the two is not so good. Take/obliterate/deny Rangoon and the defense of Burma crumbles. Off the top of my head I don't recall the exact date that British (Indian/African/whoever) troops landed there and captured it, but it was later in the war than where you are now. Even a landing at Pegu or Moulmein would help. At least he would have to divert troops south to contain it, weakening his defense to the north. In the meantime, I would be attacking the city with every bomber in range (well-escorted, at night, day and night, occasionally rest or target something else, but bomb Rangoon).

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Crackaces,

I had bombed away with almost 800 (Mostly 4Es) bombers for 5-6 days causing over 2000 casualties but still didn´t get (-)disruption on his troops. They still had an adjusted AV of x3 or something like that.

It seems to me that bombing troops in Jungle isn´t that effective. And its even less so if the troops have had time to build forts.

Ok .. it might be a die roll of some P(x) that is more rare than I assumed. I found in my battles eventually the disruption (-) and the IJ moving rearward. How many troops are in the hex?

[JocMeister]

I can´t remember the exact number. It was somewhere along 500 AV. Prior to that about a months earlier I had bombed the same stack for something like 3 weeks causing around 200 casualties per day. They did get the (-) disruption but still got a adjusted AV of something like x2 - x3.

I managed to catch one of he RGTs in the open in New Guinea. They were completely mauled in just a few days. The difference was staggering from Jungle. I´m going to start a general withdrawal from Burma soon. I´ll give it one more shot but he only need like 2-3k AV to stop even my 10k "superstack". So far the greater "firepower" of allied squads doesn´t seem to change much. In the earlier attack I did I suffered badly. Especially armor and Engineers really took a beating. One last try and then I´ll start prepping for other targets and sneak 5-6 divisions + all armor and engineers out.