Scenario 17

[Ike99]

[font="Microsoft Sans Serif"]Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.

The month of May.

1st to the 14th saw Japanese Landings and the capturing of Lunga, Tulagi and Buna.

15th through the 31st saw the Japanese overland march and capture Wau. Also a contested landing in Luganville by Allied fighter fighters and bombers. Some transports recieved damage during the landings but none were lost. A supporting Carrier force flew some long range CAP as well as launching some airstrikes on the Luganville garrison. A surface force has done some bombardment. So there is fighting for Luganville as May ends.

Allied Ships sunk in May...

DD Perkins
DD Sims
AK Diomed

Japanese Ships sunk in May...

SS I-28

Score...
Allied 2,769
Japan 4,379

Japanese lead by 1,610 points.[/font]

[Ike99]

Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.

The month of June.

Japanese Landings and the capturing of Port Moresby, and Gili Gili. Heavy air and naval action in the Luganville area. Mass bombing raids on Port Moresby.

Allied Ships sunk in June...

DD McCall
DD Monaghan
SC 638
SC 646
SC 647
AP McCawley
AP Neville
AP Manoora

Japanese Ships sunk in June...

DD Ariake
PC Toshi Maru No.3
PC CH10
SS I-2
TK Kyokuto Maru
TK Toei Maru
AP Gosei Maru
AP Goyo Maru
AP Iwaki Maru
AP Kaika Maru
AP Kamoi Maru
AP Kano Maru
AP Katsuragisan Maru
AP Marsue Maru
AP Uyo Maru

Score...
Allied 2,756
Japan 5,557

Japanese lead by 2,801 points.

[Ike99]

Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.

The month of July.

The early part of the month of July saw very little activity tacticaly. Some bombing raids, some ships hit mines on both sides, some bombing, etc., but nothing really noteworthy.

Strategicaly 3 new airfields sprung up. The lower two, one at San Cristobal and the other at Santa Cruz begin the first real challenge to allied sea control around Luganville along with bombers operating from Quadalcanal. By the end of the month these airfields are well supplied. Lunga has become a powerful Japanese airbase. From the moment Allied ships leave Noumea they are detected and under threat of bomber attack from Quadalcanal. Several attacks on allied transports were made in the last week of July with one sunk.The allies have also had some Bomber strikes on Japanese convoys to Santa
Cruz and San Cristobol with some Japanese transports sunk. Bombers attackedPort Moresby several times too.

On the last day of July a Japanese carrier force was operating north of Luganville and a US carrier force was operating south of Luganville. The result being 4 allied DD's sunk and 1 Japanese destoyer sunk. The main bodies did not close the distance to fight. Perhaps each fearing the others land based bombers and fighters.

Score...
Allied 3,056
Japan 6,297

The Sun is still rising. Japan increases its lead to 3,241 points.

[Ike99]

The Cost of expansion.

[tocaff]

With Ike's permission I have an OK to read and contribute to his thread. 

To date the action has been spotty with most loses from sub attacks made by the IJN.  I've been bombing EPV and it's nothing more than a crater with Japanese troops stranded there.  I've been unwilling to give a pitched battle with the IJN and the KB in particular.  My subs have been a non factor to date.  Once the TBDs have been replaced with TBFs at least I'll have a plane with possibilities instead of SMTs (slow moving targets).  I've never played a PBEM with historical arrival dates and 100% ship committment before as most players opt for scenario 19 to give the Japanese a greater chance for victory.

[Ike99]

Luganville is still in supply.

[Ike99]

Japanese submarines have been an allied scurge in the south seas. Banzai! Banzai! Banzai! Shouted the crew as his cruiser went to the bottom.

And the submarine?

It got away with light damage. [:'(]

[tocaff]

But the Iker fails to mention that it was a CVTF that the CA was sailing with and that his sub skipper missed out on the big prizes.  PHEW!  The CVs were covering a landing of Allied troops on Luganville which evicted the Japanese interlopers.  Where was the KB?  I think Ike is doing a very nice presentation here of our war.

[Ike99]

[font="Times New Roman"]Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.
The month of August.

Luganville
The start of the second week of August Tocaff dropped
off 12,000+ men on Luganville. My garrision of 1,200
held out for 3 days. During this period CA Vincennes
was torpedoed and sunk by a Japanese submarine. An
air assault was attempted. Naval forces by the
Japanese were not commited. In about 5 days we lost...

37 Japanese bombers
17 Japanese fighters

and...

22 Allied fighters.

SC 637 was sunk during this time too and a couple APs
hit, I think a DD got hit too but as he was so close
to base there was little chance of sinking anything
big and my losses were high so it ended.


The shipping situation.


Confirmed sinkings for the month of August...

Allied
CA Vincennes (Banzai! Banzai! Banzai!)
DD Hammann
SC 637
AP Manunda

Japanese
DD Tachikaze (My first warship I think)
PG Heijo Maru
PC CH4
AP Akashisan Maru
AP Keisho Maru
AP Hokuyo Maru
AP Kensho Maru
AP Kirishima Maru
AP Muko Maru
AP Naniwa Maru
AP Neikai Maru
AP Ryotaku Maru
AP Taiho Maru
AP Tama Maru-2
AP Toei Maru
AP Tosei Maru
AP Yamura Maru

If not for two runs to Santa Cruz I would have lost
like 3 ships the entire month and my shipping was
massive. Every transport I have was running all
month. I have no more need of any high risk runs to Santa Cruz now so I expect shipping losses to be way down for the months ahead.

Allied submarines have been ineffective. IIRC I depth
charged 2 subs for damage and one hit a defensive port mine at San Cristol in August. I'm not sure if an Allied sub has sunk a ship actually. I have seen one sneaking around Shortland a couple times. Tokyo Rose SAY, crew good luck...those waters are mined to hell and back.

No Carrier Battle?

There is no need for one on my part now. I've got what I want. Until Tocaff come across the Coral Sea, and he eventually will, they will sit
in port. When he does decide to come across he will
have to committ them or I'll blow any invasion force
out of the water. If he losses the big, for certain,
future carrier clash badly I might go back to
Luganville. If I lose it badly he will be bombing all
my bases to hell and digging me out Island by Island.
So the issue is far from decided.

And to end this post, the only numbers that matter...

Japan 6,428 Points
Allies 3,521 Points

Japanese lead by 2,907 points.

Setting Sun? Rising Sun? High Noon?

Very strange actually, the Japanese are ahead EXACTLY
the same number as last month. So I guess that makes
it noon?[/font]

[tocaff]

Actually I captured Luganville and got a very valuable base besides the flag!  I've been building up my strength while my LBA bombs bases and targets of opportunity (shipping).  Once I start a serious campaign on a base it'll be drained of supplies at an alarming rate so either a resupply effort will be made or the base will become easy pickings.  Ike longs for a Coral Sea CV fight and if he waits long enough I'm sure it'll happen though the Santa Cruz area is a strong possibility also.  To date the Japanese have lost a considerable amount of lift capacity, transports, and I expect that this will become a problem in the future for Ike.  REMEMBER PEARL HARBOR!

[Moondawggie]

Excellent game going on here, Admirals...
 
Ike, the points you've racked up are nice but it is very early on.   Beware losing all that sealift capability; once Santa Cruz gets assaulted, you'll need it badly for resupply. 
 
Todd, shouldn't your subs be a bit more productive
 
I'm looking forward to following this AAR; excellent monthly summaries.  Strong work, you two!   
 
 

[Ike99]

once Santa Cruz gets assaulted, you'll need it badly for resupply.

He will not go for Santa Cruz.

[tocaff]

Santa Cruz over your dead body can be arranged.  [:)]  All in due time.  As for my subs lack of productivity, what can I say now that will not tell my opponent what I'm up to?  Soon enough I'll be able to address what was happening.  Those VPs don't show that much of a differential for this point in time and I'm sure that before I start closing the gap it'll grow some more.  Right now the orders of the day are to keep Ike off balance and running around after shadows.  One day the shadows will be real.  I dream of P-38s, F4Us, F6Fs and the lot................

[Ike99]

Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.
The month of September.

I call this the month of the failed Allied bomber offensive. Starting the second week of September Tocaff began sending B-17's against my bases. In mass, sometimes more than 40 in a raid. They were unescorted. I was expecting such an event and of course prepared. Thanks to my in depth defense I was able to get a 2-1 and sometimes 3-1+ fighter to bomber ratio on most raids. His bomber raids were sometimes encountering 40, 50, 60+ fighters at a time.

The results being many bombers damaged, some shot down and very little if any damage to my airbases. The damage they did score was repaired in a matter of a few days at most. So the Allied bomber offensive ended in a couple weeks with results very much to my favor. I still control my skies.

After the failed bombing raids on my airfields he tried switching to the naval attack again with his B-17's. That well has dried up. Sending my transports in mostly under thunderstorms and flying heavy CAP when the skies were clear provided sufficient safety to my transports. I might have had one transport sunk all month, I'm not even sure if one was sunk. Several were hit but very minor damage done to them and a repair port was never far away they could run to. Again, during these attacks his B-17's were encountering many Zeros and his bombers were getting shot up. The supplies continued to flow in. Port moresby got 2 runs of supplies, as well as San Cristol and Santa Cruz. I don't think he saw most of these as they went in during thunderstorms.

Other than this not much happened as far as action. One of his subs sunk a minelayer off Tulagi. He began building an airfield north of Luganville.

Attrition...

34 B-17's have been lossed by the Allies. I consider this a high loss rate considering the amount of time he has actually been using them in action and his replacement rate of 7 a month. My G3M Nell bombers have a 4 a month replacement rate and I consider these squadrons 1 shot wonders. When you lose them. You lose them forever. They'll never get rebuilt to any good strength. So B-17 groups are probably not far behind.

As the Japanese line held firm on all fronts the engineers were busy at work in the rear as can be seen by the score.

The only numbers that matter.

Allied Points-3,715
Japanese Points-6,859

Japanese lead by 3,144 points. The sun rose some more in Septemeber. In October Todd gets his first P38's to escort his bombers. We'll see what happens.

[Miller]

Hi, nice AAR. I take it you decided to dig in and await Todd's counter-attack.

Perpare to be bombed into the stoneage by his LBA in 1943[:D] This is the tough reality I'm afraid. You do not have any fighters with heavy enough armament to shoot down his 4E bombers.

[tocaff]

What Miller said!  I'm now getting new bomber squadrons and never underestimate what my medium (2E) bombers can do when they're in range.  My tactics so far were meant to give my air crews more experience and cause the Japanese to expend supplies by making repairs, thus hindering building of facilities.  Now that we're nearing the end of '42 I'm getting itchy and fighting the urge to do something as I want to wait until I have the men and material that give me a better chance of success.  The rotten weather has hindered my bombing but allowed certain other moves that Ike has either chosen to ignore or didn't see.  Our game promises to be a bloody affair once my offensive begins.  I have the usual complaint of I NEED MORE SHIPS, PLANES and MEN!  Greedy aren't I?

[Ike99]

Prepare to be bombed into the stoneage by his LBA in 1943 This is the tough reality I'm afraid. You do not have any fighters with heavy enough armament to shoot down his 4E bombers.

[Ike99]

Ike99 (Japan)-vs-Tocaff (Allied)
Scenario 17.
Fixed Reinforcements at 100%
Japanese sub doctrine is off.

The month of October.

1st to the 17th saw very little action. It stormed, then rained, then stormed...then rained some more for almost 2 weeks straight. This grounded almost all flight operations for both sides.

Starting on the 18th the weather cleared and an offensive by the Japanese began against Gavigamana. It began with a 5 day air and sea assault around the surrounding Islands to make the area fairly safe enough for Japanese ships to operate in.

It seemed to have worked. From the 18th-22nd of October the Allies lost 45 fighters, 35 Dive bombers and 1 two engine bomber while the Japanese lost 15 fighters and 8 bombers in action. I've sunk alot of patrol boats, he sunk a few destroyers. After all this prep work a small force was landed on Gavigamana.

As it stands now Japanese & Allied troops are fighting it out on Gavigamana for control of the island as forces around the area lend in their support.

On the other side of the board Tocaff launches massive bombing raids against Port Moresby in the final days of October. Engineers fill in the holes. Supplies are very good there as in all of New Guinea and they continue to flow in. Fighters and Bombers wait for any early attempt by the Allies to conduct a landing on New Guinea.

Engineers continue hard at work building large airbases through the region. New Guinea has been under developement for months now. Wewak, etc. etc. Munda is now a level 4 airfield. So is Irau. The Russel Isla is coming along as well as some others.

All these airbases disperse the Japanese victory points and will probably be used to disperse the Japanese airforce once the need comes. No need to give the Allies the gift of a few super airfields to smash with 100+ bomber raids when I can disperse my forces and points making his job much more difficult. It's not a question of IF the Japanese lose it's a question of WHEN the Japanese lose.

Right now though I can't see the Allies launching a major anphibious operation anywhere yet. I've tried to provoke him into an early major operation but he doesn't come. He might be able to land troops but he would certainly never be able to supply them. The Japanese navy is virtually intact, nothing larger than one light cruiser and some destroyers have been lost. A whole lot of cutting edge is left on the blade.

So...Japanese situation is fine at the end of October.

Japanese Points-7,289
Allied Points-4,065

Japanese lead by 3,224 points. A lot more than I need for a Decisive victory. Will I be able to keep enough?

A note on the 4E bomber situation. Last monthly report I noted up to September Tocaff had lost 34 B17's. The end of October showed he has now lost 54 B17's. Meaning...20 B17's were lost in 30 days. Well more than his monthly replacement rate of 7 a month. Will these loss rates become significant by mid 43'. Don't know, we'll see.

[Ike99]

some small action in October....

[Ike99]

How it ends up in October...