Pick a Scenario

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GaryChildress
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Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

I've been discussing 4 possible scenarios on the Warship Project boards. I think what I may do is 4 mods, each one with one of the following OOBs for the US pitted against the Alt_Naval website's IJN. From there gamers can decide which one they like the best.

Just out of curiosity, as a poll, which scenario would you be most interested in playing if any at all? Which scenario would you be least interested in?
Scenario #1: The US converts more Lexingtons to carriers. In which case the WNT would need to be significantly altered. In this case the carrier fleet might look something like this:

Langley
Lexington 1
Lexington 2
Lexington 3
Lexington 4
Ranger
Yorktown 1
Yorktown 2
Yorktown 3
Wasp

Scenario #2: The US converts 2 old armored cruisers to carriers in lieu of Lexington and Saratoga, learns from those, ends up scrapping them or decomissioning them, then goes on a massive building program of Yorktowns.

Langley
Pennsylvania (is decomissioned)
Tennessee (is decomissioned)
Ranger
Yorktown 1
Yorktown 2
Yorktown 3
Yorktown 4
Yorktown 5
Yorktown 6
Yorktown 7
Wasp

Scenario #3: The US builds more Yorktowns before the Essexes are ready.

Langley
Lexington
Saratoga
Ranger
Yorktown
Enterprise
Hornet
Wasp
Yorktown 5
Yorktown 6
Yorktown 7
-->Essexes

Scenario #4: The US builds only one Lexington as a carrier and 2 extra Yorktowns in place of Saratoga.

Langley
Lexington
Ranger
Yorktown 1
Yorktown 2
Yorktown 3
Yorktown 4
Yorktown 5
Wasp
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ny59giants
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by ny59giants »

Could you add which are available on 7 Dec 41 and when the others will arrive through '42??
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GaryChildress
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

OK. I've put an asterick next to the ships which will be available on Dec 7. Of course some of them will be in the Atlantic and not the Pacific when the war breaks out and I haven't worked out which ones yet. But for starters this would be the availability.

Note: For Senario #1 the Japanese would also get an extra boost in the form of a 2nd or 3rd Akagi or possibly an extra Soryu or two since the US manages to save more Lexingtons.

Note2: For Scenario #3 more Yorktowns are produced in 42 in place of some Essexes. So instead of 1 Essex in 42 there would be 3 Yorktowns.

Note3: I may end up scratching Scenario #2 because it seems to be the least plausible according to the Warship Projects forum.
Scenario #1: The US converts more Lexingtons to carriers. In which case the WNT would need to be significantly altered. In this case the carrier fleet might look something like this:

Langley
Lexington 1 *
Lexington 2 *
Lexington 3 *
Lexington 4 *
Ranger *
Yorktown 1 *
Yorktown 2 *
Yorktown 3
Wasp

Scenario #2: The US converts 2 old armored cruisers to carriers in lieu of Lexington and Saratoga, learns from those, ends up scrapping them or decomissioning them, then goes on a massive building program of Yorktowns.

Langley
Pennsylvania (is decomissioned)
Tennessee (is decomissioned)
Ranger *
Yorktown 1 *
Yorktown 2 *
Yorktown 3 *
Yorktown 4 *
Yorktown 5 *
Yorktown 6 *
Yorktown 7
Wasp

Scenario #3: The US builds more Yorktowns before the Essexes are ready.

Langley
Lexington *
Saratoga *
Ranger *
Yorktown *
Enterprise *
Hornet
Wasp
Yorktown 5
Yorktown 6
Yorktown 7
-->Essexes

Scenario #4: The US builds only one Lexington as a carrier and 2 extra Yorktowns in place of Saratoga.

Langley
Lexington *
Ranger *
Yorktown 1 *
Yorktown 2 *
Yorktown 3 *
Yorktown 4 *
Yorktown 5
Wasp

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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by mikemike »

What you need to consider with all those scenarios is that naval policy at that time wasn't just a matter between Japan and the US, Britain, and, to a lesser degree, France and Italy also influenced the treaties and building policy.

Scenario 2: Most unlikely. Remember that Japan had two and Britain three (or four, if you count Eagle) big carriers. It is inconceivable that the USN would have put truckloads of money into converting some clapped-out pre-dreadnoughts when everybody else got virtually new, fast, ships, and waited a decade to build something equivalent. Ranger wouldn't have happened in that kind of scenario, either. Just too cramped, and no treaty tonnage limits making such a small carrier attractive.

Scenario 4:

You can almost hear the conversation: "Well, the Japanese and the Brits convert two ships each to carriers. We make do with one. Budget, you know. But don't worry, we're going to order two additional carriers in 1934 to compensate, they'll be much more efficient than the Lexingtons." - "Fine, but what happens if someone starts shooting in 1932?"

Scenario 1:

Plausible. The additional ships were building, anyway. But as nobody regarded carriers as capital ships in those days, more like part of the Scouting Forces, Japan would have wanted to convert all four of the Amagi class, and Britain would probably have converted Repulse and Renown in addition to Courageous and Glorious, two more brainchildren of Lord Fisher, big, fast, weakly protected. To compensate, Britain would have wanted to keep Tiger and build another 16-inch Rodney (I'm assuming the Washington limits are operative, else the RN would probably have built all four G3's, Japan at the least Tosa and Kaga, and the US Washington, South Dakota, and Indiana). This would be interesting.

Scenario 3:

Most plausible. Order three additional Yorktowns from Newport News and New York Navy Yard, two in 1936 and an additional one in 1939.
(Names: Ticonderoga, Wasp, Constellation?) As treaty limits don't apply, obviously, there is no reason why Wasp shouldn't be built full-size. Defer or cancel South Dakota and Indiana to compensate. Interesting, too, especially if they're lined up against the Alt-IJN fleet.
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ny59giants
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by ny59giants »

Before reading MM's comments, I was looking most favorably at Scen #3. If York 5, 6, & 7 are available during '42, then The Allies can lose one or two CVs early in the war and not have that huge gap until the Essex arrive. 
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Alikchi2
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by Alikchi2 »

I like scenarios 1 and 3.
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RevRick
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by RevRick »

Gary, are you talking about Alikchi's Iron Storm mod, or is there another one, and if so, can you give me the URL?????
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GaryChildress
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: RevRick

Gary, are you talking about Alikchi's Iron Storm mod, or is there another one, and if so, can you give me the URL?????

No. I'm thinking of doing a mod similar to Iron Storm when AE comes out (No URL yet), however, with a different US navy instead. I know Iron Storm takes it's cue from the Alt_naval website but I believe it adds a few flourishes of its own. I am thinking of keeping more strictly to the Alt_Naval building plan than Iron Storm and doing a little tinkering with the US navy as well. Of course if Alikchi-san wants to do a new Iron Storm that is more like the mods above I would rather he do the work so I can play it (At Alikchi: hint, hint). [:D]
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

Judging from the feedback I've gotten so far here and from the Warship Projects forums, Scenario # 3 is the best one to go with.

Let's work on that one then. When can I get those 3 extra Yorktowns and at what expense? Could I maybe cancel N. Carolina and Washington to free up some building capacity? Can the US forfeit the London Treaty sooner than 1937 in order to free up tonnage so that Wasp can be built as a Yorktown?

If scenario #3 is the most plausible then lets iron it out.
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Nomad
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by Nomad »

One thing that I remember is that the USA did not build all of it allotted warships. I think some could be fitted it prewar. Dunnigan and Nofi state that in 1927 Coolige asked for 5 CVs and 25 Cruisers, all within the treaty, and congress cut it to 1 CV and 15 Cruisers. There are 4 more CVs and 10 CA/CLs.
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: Nomad

One thing that I remember is that the USA did not build all of it allotted warships. I think some could be fitted it prewar. Dunnigan and Nofi state that in 1927 Coolige asked for 5 CVs and 25 Cruisers, all within the treaty, and congress cut it to 1 CV and 15 Cruisers. There are 4 more CVs and 10 CA/CLs.

I think the 5 CVs Coolidge asks for are probably recouped in the later CVs built after Lexington and Saratoga. According to my understanding, the US definitely used all its carrier tonnage alotted by the Washington Treaty. In fact the Wasp was built smaller than the Yorktowns just to squeeze it into available tonnage. I'd like to keep the Washington and first London treaties intact so that I can use the alternative IJN fleet outlined at the Alt_Naval website. The second London Treaty OTOH I would like to get the US out of if plausible.

Not sure about cruiser tonnage. I'll have to look into it more.
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Nomad
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by Nomad »

In the same paragraph they say that on Dec 7, 1941 the IJN was about 80% the "size" of the USN instead of the treaty size of 60%. I do not know the ins and outs of the treaties, but I always thought that the USN had room to expand but didn't because of the isolationist congress. I agree that Wasp was designed to squeeze into the treaty, but why? And what ships were available that didn't get built?

And if you scrap Lex, Sara, and Wasp, you can build 4 more Yorktowns - giving 7 Yorktowns.
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: Nomad

In the same paragraph they say that on Dec 7, 1941 the IJN was about 80% the "size" of the USN instead of the treaty size of 60%. I do not know the ins and outs of the treaties, but I always thought that the USN had room to expand but didn't because of the isolationist congress. I agree that Wasp was designed to squeeze into the treaty, but why? And what ships were available that didn't get built?

And if you scrap Lex, Sara, and Wasp, you can build 4 more Yorktowns - giving 7 Yorktowns.

I was trying to get a bunch more Yorktowns by scratching Lex and Sara and making Wasp a Yorktown. I proposed this on the Warship Projects forums but it was pointed out to me that without Lex and Sara, the US never would have gotten the fleet carrier experience which led us to build the Yorktowns. The necessity of the Lexingtons has been repeatedly tied into the design of the Yorktowns where I have proposed differently. So I gave up on those scenarios and have decided to pursue a different avenue. I was really hoping I could get Yorktowns instead of Lexingtons but it was just deemed too implausible. [:(]

Instead I'm left with a scenario in which the US builds more Yorktowns prior to the Essexes as the most plausible of my scenarios.

I was secondly hoping for a scenario in which only one Lexington gets built and 2 Yorktowns are built instead of Saratoga, however, as mikemike points out above, then we get into a situation of why wouldn't the US try to keep up with the Japanese who convert Akagi and Kaga to CVs. Would the US really settle for putting off one Lexington with the hopes of building 2 better carriers in the future?
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by mikemike »

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Judging from the feedback I've gotten so far here and from the Warship Projects forums, Scenario # 3 is the best one to go with.

Let's work on that one then. When can I get those 3 extra Yorktowns and at what expense? Could I maybe cancel N. Carolina and Washington to free up some building capacity? Can the US forfeit the London Treaty sooner than 1937 in order to free up tonnage so that Wasp can be built as a Yorktown?

If scenario #3 is the most plausible then lets iron it out.

The Yorktown class was built by Newport News, Yorktown and Enterprise were laid down in 1934 and Hornet in 1939. Wasp was built by Bethlehem Steel Works in 1936. Those two yards also shared the first thirteen Essex class ships.

The driver behind Wasp's design was the attempt to squeeze as much carrier as possible from the 15.000 tons remaining from the London Treaty limits. I'm pretty certain that, if the USA had renounced the London Treaty effective from 1936, Wasp would have emerged as a Yorktown.

I think the only nations keeping to the London Treaty from 1936 onwards were Britain and the USA, so if the USA had wanted to react to developments in Japan, the fallout would merely have been diplomatic trouble with Britain, which could have been ignored. What should Britain have done, impose an economic embargo on the USA when they still hadn't paid off their debts from WW I?

So let's imagine the USA formally renounces all Naval Treaty limitations effective from January 1, 1936, as reaction to Japan. It is decided to build, for a start, four more Yorktown class carriers. As a first step, Wasp is ordered from Bethlehem as a Yorktown, and Hornet from Newport News. Both could have been laid down in 1936, Wasp on the same slip as in RL and Hornet on the slip vacated by the launch of Yorktown in April 1936. The only ship that could have collided with Hornet at the time was CL49 St. Louis which was laid down in December 1936, I assume on the slip vacated in October by Enterprise. There was enough free capacity at the time, as the Navy build-up hadn't yet started in earnest. The budget could probably have been stretched for that. Don't cancel Washington, the US Navy never had a BB class of one.

I'd schedule the next pair for 1938/1939, one for Newport News in place of Hornet, one for Bethlehem Quincy (call it Constellation, or maybe Essex?). Both yards were building BB's from the 1938 budget, Indiana in Newport News, parallel to Hornet, Massachusetts in Quincy, laid down in July 1939. I propose laying down CV10 Constellation in place of Massachusetts, on July 20, 1939, and either delay Massachusetts until after the launch of Constellation (say December 1940, with commissioning in September/October 1941)) cancel it, or move it to another yard: neither New York Navy Yard nor Philadelphia Navy Yard, where it would have collided with the Iowa class ships; New York Shipbuilding was heavily engaged in the cruiser program; I don't know if there was any spare capacity in the Norfolk Navy Yard which was already building Alabama. The only other yard with any battleship experience would have been Mare Island Navy Yard (California and Montana).
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GaryChildress
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: mikemike
Don't cancel Washington, the US Navy never had a BB class of one.

What about canceling BOTH Washington and N. Carolina. Both were laid down after January 1936. Let's say the US bails on the second London Treaty. In place of the N. Carolina and Washington, how about a couple Yorktowns? Then build the S Dakotas from there. If I'm not mistaken the N. Carolinas were built with only 14" shell protection whereas the S. Dakotas were armored against 16". Why not scratch the N. Carolinas in favor of S. Dakotas later?
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by mikemike »

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress


I think the 5 CVs Coolidge asks for are probably recouped in the later CVs built after Lexington and Saratoga. According to my understanding, the US definitely used all its carrier tonnage alotted by the Washington Treaty. In fact the Wasp was built smaller than the Yorktowns just to squeeze it into available tonnage. I'd like to keep the Washington and first London treaties intact so that I can use the alternative IJN fleet outlined at the Alt_Naval website. The second London Treaty OTOH I would like to get the US out of if plausible.

Not sure about cruiser tonnage. I'll have to look into it more.

Ranger was intended as prototype for a design that could squeeze out five carriers from the 69.000 tons left from the Washington Treaty allotment. Obviously not a success, hence Yorktown.

The additional ships don't collide with the first London Treaty. The second London Treaty didn't limit the total tonnage or number of ships, just size and armament, because Japan and Italy didn't participate. The Yorktowns would fit into those limits (carriers a maximum displacement of 23.000 tons), and so conform to the treaty.

Building an alt-history scenario around the alt-IJN concept certainly sounds like a worthy project (although I severely doubt that the proposed rebuilds of the Fuso and Ise classes would have been economically feasible or even possible in RL). But I confess that an extended BB-to-carrier conversion after Washington, with the knock-on effects it would have produced - a short battleship building spurt, producing maybe eight new battleships in the three principal navies, and leaving everybody out of money to build quite the numbers of CA's they did in RL - also sounds attractive.
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by mikemike »

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

What about canceling BOTH Washington and N. Carolina. Both were laid down after January 1936. Let's say the US bails on the second London Treaty. In place of the N. Carolina and Washington, how about a couple Yorktowns? Then build the S Dakotas from there. If I'm not mistaken the N. Carolinas were built with only 14" shell protection whereas the S. Dakotas were armored against 16". Why not scratch the N. Carolinas in favor of S. Dakotas later?

I've looked at the Second London Treaty, and you don't need to cancel those ships by that treaty. The only reason to do that would be the budget, and that might be accommodated. Gluing the ships onto the South Dakota program would have a negative impact on the Iowas and the cruiser program, which all the battleship yards not having Iowas or carriers were heavily engaged on, with the exception of Mare Island which was apparently out of the new-construction business.
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GaryChildress
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by GaryChildress »

ORIGINAL: mikemike
ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

What about canceling BOTH Washington and N. Carolina. Both were laid down after January 1936. Let's say the US bails on the second London Treaty. In place of the N. Carolina and Washington, how about a couple Yorktowns? Then build the S Dakotas from there. If I'm not mistaken the N. Carolinas were built with only 14" shell protection whereas the S. Dakotas were armored against 16". Why not scratch the N. Carolinas in favor of S. Dakotas later?

I've looked at the Second London Treaty, and you don't need to cancel those ships by that treaty. The only reason to do that would be the budget, and that might be accommodated. Gluing the ships onto the South Dakota program would have a negative impact on the Iowas and the cruiser program, which all the battleship yards not having Iowas or carriers were heavily engaged on, with the exception of Mare Island which was apparently out of the new-construction business.

Then we are no longer limited in carrier tonnage. So we can build some extra carriers. But to do that do we need to cancel some of the BBs? Why not cancel the N. Carolinas and build Yorktowns in their place. The way I see it we can either start in 1937 and 1938 canceling the N. Carolinas in favor of Yorktowns or else we have to wait until 1939 with the S. Dakotas to start laying down carriers. I would rather see it done in 1937 and 38. Then maybe we get some more Yorktowns by time the war breaks out in 41. Otherwise we'll have to wait longer.
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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by John 3rd »

Michael asked if I would jump into this thread.  Sorry it took so long but I will go back to the original question of which Scenario:

I like Scenario 1 due to it being easiest to add ships that make sense.  IF the US was to convert all four of the BC into CVs then the Japanese would have had the same option.  Akagi, Amagi, Kaga, and Tosa (??) would have been the logical choices.  What might be fun for this scenario is to start with an additional CV for the USA in the Pacific.  Could have Sara, Lex, Ent, and another conversion present.  The second new ship could arrive fairly quickly (say ahead of Yorktown).  This would provide the US with four and then six CV available for operations by the end of January.  VERY NICE!  The Japanese could have theirs added to the PH Attack or be attached tot he Southern Operations...

Secnario 3 writes itself but is a little more complicated.

I am unclear as the the Japanese side of this.  Is it the Iron Storm composition?

Alikchi and several of us have been working on a differing Japanese 4th Circle Plan that I HOPE will be finished with AE coming out.  Are you still planning that Alikchi?  Am looking forward to that...

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RE: Pick a Scenario

Post by RevRick »

However... at this time (the proposed cancellation of the Naval Treaty), and the abrogation of the 14" gun limit in BB's, the reason was the suspected building of large battleships by the IJN, was it not? It would not seem to me a good thing to cancel the first two BBs. I don't think the Gun Fraternity would have allowed it. Further, if the supposed AltNav scenario is proposing what looks like a massive built up of the IJN - five carriers to launch in 1942 in addition to the five already built AND two new BB's - then any response from the USN and the Congress would have also mandated a further increase in building ways, I would propose. If, as has been suggested before, Mare Island is not being used, that would mean that at least one more new way would have to be built between 1936 and 1939 to get another Yorktown's bottom wet before 1942. Wasp would have been a Yorktown, add Constellation and USS Boondoggle and you've got two more CVs, another on the ways by 1939, and if another building way is constructed, possibly a seventh to launch before the Essexes start filling the ways.
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