Chinese supply situation

[Rainer79]

I had a bit of free time and started to look at the industrial might (or possible lack thereof) of mainland China in scenario 1.

It would be nice if someone could double-check the numbers in case I missed a base somewhere. Assuming a perfect transportation network the following numbers can be derived:


resource centers: 1 970 (130 more are damaged)
resource points generated: 39 400

oil centers: 160
oil points generated: 1 600

refineries: 130
oil points required: 1 300 (--> 300 oil points cannot be used per turn)
supply output: 130
fuel output: 1 170

light industry: 1 168 (172 more are damaged)
resources required: 17 520
supply output: 1 168

heavy industry: 630 (90 more are damaged)
resources required: 12 600
fuel required: 1 260 (--> 90 more than will be produced domestically)
supply output: 1 260

"free" supply: 1 200



There is a net surplus of 9 280 resource points and a shortfall of 90 fuel points per day. Also 300 oil points per day cannot be refined.

In total 3 758 supply points are produced every day (ignoring the Burma Road). Roughly 1/3 comes from LI, HI and free supply each.

Over a period of 30 days 112 740 supply points will be generated.

For comparison the BigB 1.5 readme lists the following monthly figures (all without the Burma Road):
WitP stock: 134 250
WitP BigB: 178 710





A couple of observations:
There is a huge overproduction of resources and China can loose 464 resource centers before supply generation is impacted. Repairs of damaged RCs can be safely turned off.

At the same time there is not enough fuel around to fuel the existing heavy industry so repairs to that sector of the economy don't make much sense either - unless you can find additional fuel sources or refineries.

The most profitable repairs would be to the light industry segment due to the huge resource surplus but keep in mind that the ROI is still not good. A repaired center will need to work for 1001 days to generate a net supply profit for you. Note that in 45 a lot of Chinese corps will be disbanded so the supply need will also drop.

Also it is unclear if the Soviet Union will be able to contribute meaningful supplies directly via the connection to Alma-Ata.

The biggest potential danger to the Chinese economy is that all oil production (and half of the "free" supply) is located in the north. If Chungking and southern China can be isolated then China will be in major trouble.

[Shark7]

Hmm, so as a Japanese player it seems more efficient to simply take out the refineries and light industry. That prevents the fuel from being produced and shuts down the home grown supplies, but leaves the precious oil and resources for you to capture and send to the Home Islands.

[Mike Solli]

If the refineries and LI are near the front line, taking it is better for the Japanese in the long run.  Just getting Japanese troops in the hex will shut them down.

[Rainer79]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

If the refineries and LI are near the front line, taking it is better for the Japanese in the long run.  Just getting Japanese troops in the hex will shut them down.

The Chinese refineries are in:

Sian (20)
Lanchow (90)
Urumchi (20)

They are not the easiest objectives (except for possibly Sian). Note that these are also the only bases with oil. Their numbers match the refinery capacity except for Urumchi which has a 30 oil center surplus.

LI is very much spread around the country. I only count 8 Chinese bases which do not have some LI complexes present.

China seems to be a great place to acquire resources and supply but the Japanese war machine will have to acquire its fuel from somewhere else.

[Shark7]

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

If the refineries and LI are near the front line, taking it is better for the Japanese in the long run.  Just getting Japanese troops in the hex will shut them down.

Think its going to depend on how quick you can get there with troops. Chungking...I'd raze it. Changsha...capture it. For any base you can't reasonably capture in the first year, might be better off to raze them, the Allied player can either spend supply to repair it themselves, or be forced to depends on the trickle of supply coming in 'over the hump'.

China can be starved into a non-factor.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Rainer79

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

If the refineries and LI are near the front line, taking it is better for the Japanese in the long run.  Just getting Japanese troops in the hex will shut them down.

The Chinese refineries are in:

Sian (20)
Lanchow (90)
Urumchi (20)

They are not the easiest objectives (except for possibly Sian). Note that these are also the only bases with oil. Their numbers match the refinery capacity except for Urumchi which has a 30 oil center surplus.

LI is very much spread around the country. I only count 8 Chinese bases which do not have some LI complexes present.

China seems to be a great place to acquire resources and supply but the Japanese war machine will have to acquire its fuel from somewhere else.

Dang, I need to examine the map of China now. Don't know where Urumchi is, but I suspect it's in the north, along with Sian and Lanchow. If the road/rail network is as poor between north and south China as it is in CHS, then VERY little of that fuel that is refined will ever make it to LI in south China. [:(]

It sure seems that Shark's statement is true, "China can be starved into a non-factor." From a Allied perspective, that doesnt' make me as happy as all you JFB's. [:D]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: USS America

Dang, I need to examine the map of China now. Don't know where Urumchi is, but I suspect it's in the north, along with Sian and Lanchow. If the road/rail network is as poor between north and south China as it is in CHS, then VERY little of that fuel that is refined will ever make it to LI in south China. [:(]

Mike, LI needs 15 resources per LI to make supply. HI needs 20 resources and 2 fuel. I assume you're talking HI.

[Shark7]

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: Rainer79

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli

If the refineries and LI are near the front line, taking it is better for the Japanese in the long run.  Just getting Japanese troops in the hex will shut them down.

The Chinese refineries are in:

Sian (20)
Lanchow (90)
Urumchi (20)

They are not the easiest objectives (except for possibly Sian). Note that these are also the only bases with oil. Their numbers match the refinery capacity except for Urumchi which has a 30 oil center surplus.

LI is very much spread around the country. I only count 8 Chinese bases which do not have some LI complexes present.

China seems to be a great place to acquire resources and supply but the Japanese war machine will have to acquire its fuel from somewhere else.

Dang, I need to examine the map of China now. Don't know where Urumchi is, but I suspect it's in the north, along with Sian and Lanchow. If the road/rail network is as poor between north and south China as it is in CHS, then VERY little of that fuel that is refined will ever make it to LI in south China. [:(]

It sure seems that Shark's statement is true, "China can be starved into a non-factor." From a Allied perspective, that doesnt' make me as happy as all you JFB's. [:D]

Urumchi is way north. Might even be unreachable by Betty raid tbh. It's near the border with the Soviet Union.

[USSAmerica]

My mistake.  That does make things a little better, as the primary need within China is supply, and the Oil/Refinery potential bottleneck has much less impact on supply production that I was thinking. 
 
"Keep the resources and LI running in China" got it.  [:)]

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: USS America

"Keep the resources and LI running in China" got it.  [:)]

[:D]

[Rainer79]

ORIGINAL: USS America

My mistake.  That does make things a little better, as the primary need within China is supply, and the Oil/Refinery potential bottleneck has much less impact on supply production that I was thinking. 

"Keep the resources and LI running in China" got it.  [:)]

I am thinking about doing some calculations on when the fuel in China is expected to run out but initial stockpiles don't seem be all that promising at the moment.

A quick check revealed that roughly 20k fuel is available at the start of the campaign. With a daily shortfall of 90 fuel it will begin to run out after ~220 days. As HI accounts for roughly 1/3 of Chinese supply production it may not be that trivial.

It might be worthwhile to investigate if you can sneak a loaded TK or two into Pakhoi during the early stages of the war.

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: Rainer79


I am thinking about doing some calculations on when the fuel in China is expected to run out but initial stockpiles don't seem be all that promising at the moment.

A quick check revealed that roughly 20k fuel is available at the start of the campaign. With a daily shortfall of 90 fuel it will begin to run out after ~220 days. As HI accounts for roughly 1/3 of Chinese supply production it may not be that trivial.

It might be worthwhile to investigate if you can sneak a loaded TK or two into Pakhoi during the early stages of the war.

Hey Ranier, check out WitP Staff for this type of info in AE. I haven't yet looked at it, but I use the Classic WitP version, Decoder, every day. This type of calculation is one of it's strengths. [:)]

[DivePac88]

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Chungking...I'd raze it.

China can be starved into a non-factor.

Do you really want to get into a Strategic Bombing contest with an Allied Player in China (I know who would win that one).

[Shark7]

ORIGINAL: DivePac88

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Chungking...I'd raze it.

China can be starved into a non-factor.

Do you really want to get into a Strategic Bombing contest with an Allied Player in China (I know who would win that one).

Pretty sure the Allied player is going to play that game wether I do or not. Might as well get the 'E' for effort. [:D]

[DivePac88]

ORIGINAL: Shark7

ORIGINAL: DivePac88

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Chungking...I'd raze it.

China can be starved into a non-factor.

Do you really want to get into a Strategic Bombing contest with an Allied Player in China (I know who would win that one).

Pretty sure the Allied player is going to play that game wether I do or not. Might as well get the 'E' for effort. [:D]

[:'(]

[treespider]

Not sure if it got put in or not but resource centers and possibly LI are harder to hit with bombing....in any event aircraft need supplies so trying to kill Chinese supply is probably a good thing for the Japanese....

[Jim D Burns]

Thanks for this Ranier79. Now the thing to do is add up the daily consumption for the whole Chinese army to see if China is going to dry up. But we'll have to wait for a game to reach a point where most of the disabled equipment has been repaired first, as the supply costs for that skews consumption numbers I think.

Suffice it to say, it appears China is woefully undersupplied now. Hopefully the allies get enough air transports to bring in significantly more supplies, since Japan will probably bomb most of China's production to smithereens as they did in the WitP games that had the production on map.

I wonder why they went back to on map production since it was a serious problem people went out of their way to fix in WitP? Is Japanese strategic bombing no longer allowed?

Jim

[Rainer79]

ORIGINAL: USS America
Hey Ranier, check out WitP Staff for this type of info in AE. I haven't yet looked at it, but I use the Classic WitP version, Decoder, every day. This type of calculation is one of it's strengths. [:)]

Thanks, I have done that but WitP Staff has no unified cluster file for China. It groups Middle Russia and West China into a cluster, the Pakhoi area into another one while Central China is the rest. It is very useful though the results are not pretty.

BTW the numbers from WitP staff are (taken Dec. 8th from a scen 1 historical start):

Middle Russia, West China: inf. oil and fuel reach, resources 1.6 d, supply produced 1720, supply used 221
Pakhoi: no fuel or oil, resources inf., supply produced 20, supply used 17
Central China: resource reach 9.2 d, fuel reach 7.2 d, supply produced 1888, 1633

All construction has been set to "off" BTW. I don't think the numbers include additional supplies from the Burma road which would only be a temporary bandaid in any case.

Edit: Just noticed that Canton starts with 150 000+ fuel which could be vital for China's future. Japanese defenders worth 655 AV in urban terrain might be hard to shift though even with only 1 level of forts.

[Xxzard]

Urban would make it nearly impossible to shift defenders at Canton, but it could give the Jap player more to think about during Hong Kong operation and such. I.E. Just not sure yet.

[Shark7]

Sounds like a place to send tankers to and bring fuel out of.