Dec 7th Surprise and CAP?

[GB68]

My understanding of the Dec 7th surprise rules in regards to Allied CAP is that there is a 50% chance of no CAP launching and if they happen to launch, it is reduced by 75%.

I regularly find that on the CAP over the Luzon is much higher than it seems it should be. Now, it varies if it is Manila, Clark or even Iba, but below is my last result for Dec 7th morning air phase over Luzon.

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Morning Air attack on Clark Field , at 79,76

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 28 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 25
G4M1 Betty x 27



Allied aircraft
P-35A x 18
P-40B Warhawk x 19


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 11 destroyed, 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-35A: 1 destroyed
P-40B Warhawk: 1 destroyed
B-17D Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground



Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 7

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I have counted the fighters based on Luzon and it numbers about 100 odd, comprising all types and bases. But 37 planes on CAP shows me this rule is not applied in the PI? My reading of the manual suggests to me the rule applies for all CAP on the morning turn of Dec 7th.

I have re-run the the 1st turn perhaps 6 or 7 times and it varies between bases as I said and in numbers. The numbers varies between 20 and up to 41 as the highest I've seen.



This is Scenario 2 Vs the AI.